Perfect Wave - 2011-Q3

I am starting a new thread for 2011 Q3 (Jul - Sep), including EUR, SP, Gold, and JPY. My wave counts of last quarter can be found from:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=287163

Elliott Wave reference can be found from:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elliott_wave_principle

My labeling for wave degrees in different time frames:
Monthly – [[[i]]], [[[II]]], [[[III]]], [[[IV]]], [[[V]]], [[[A]]], [[[b]]], [[[C]]]
Monthly – [[i]], [[II]], [[III]], [[IV]], [[V]], [[A]], [[b]], [[C]]
Weekly – [i], [II], [III], [IV], [V], [A], [b], [C]
Weekly – I, II, III, IV, V, A, B, C
Daily – 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, a, b, c
Daily – _1, _2, _3, _4, _5, _a, _b, _c
Hourly – __1, __2, __3, __4, __5, __a, __b, __c

SP Monthly :: Where We Stand at Now

Comments are welcome!

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/atta...sp-monthly.png

07/02/2011

Comments are welcome!

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/atta...2-sp-daily.png

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/atta...gold-daily.png

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/atta...-eur-daily.png

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/atta...-jpy-daily.png

Interesting, E/U up and Gold down . Let see market move.

07/06/2011

Comments are welcome!

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/atta...p-intraday.jpg

07/10/2011

Comments are welcome!

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/atta...9-sp-daily.png

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/atta...gold-daily.png

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/atta...-eur-daily.png

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/atta...-jpy-daily.png

07/12/2011

Comments are welcome!

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/atta...p-intraday.jpg

thank you for posting your work. do you analyze oil or gold?

topedge - I trade GC (gold), EUR, JPY, and SP only. I post weekly analysis of those 4 items every weekend.

07/16/2011

Comments are welcome!

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/atta...6-sp-daily.png

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/atta...gold-daily.png

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/atta...-eur-daily.png

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/atta...-jpy-daily.png

Since you ask for comments here are mine:

I find Elliot Wave absolutely useless as a predictive tool. It is imprecise both in terms of price and time and is always subject to more than one (often contrary) interpretation. How often do wave counts have to be re-numbered?

I can see that there is some relevance in using it as a descriptive tool regarding what has happened, but do not see how it is possible to use it to make correct investment or trading decisions....

Sorry

beeb

edit - would love to be shown to be wrong.....

beeb - Thanks for commenting. Let me answer as the following:

Yes, I agree with you that EW is a predictive tool. Don't you think that all FA or TA approaches are predictive based what has happened? For example, when a market retreats from over-bought back to some MA, say 4/9/18, we might assume that if the MA is still moving up and then it will be a good opportunity to buy dip. That buy-dip is based on the prediction that the market will go up again. If one does not know how to use MA, MA becomes "useless". Same as EW, in order to utilize EW to trade, one needs to understand EW first.

Good point! Talking about being imprecise, EW is one of the tools that provides the most precise predition - both in price and time. (Another tool is W.D. Gann. Cycle is kind of OK in time prediction but it has no idea about price.) A wave segment's movement involves price action/behavior and time needed to travel. Can you tell me something that can predict price and time? Talking about renumberring the wave, it has to be done whenever it is needed. It's like when you are driving and hit a red light, the red light tells you that you got to stop, would you stop? As long as there is no red light (wave behavior changing), there is no need to stop (to renumber the wave count).

Again, a tool is useful when you know how to use it. Some friends use MA only and make good profit from it. About using EW for trading, EW can provide a precise target (both in time and price) for a wave movement for one to take profit (or establish position), and also EW can tell one when the existing position needs to quit, if the current wave count is invalid, so people can easily place a stop order at some meaningful point (with minimal risk).

Thanks for your response - I'm glad you took my comments in the spirit in which they were intended........

As I said in my original post I do not know that much about EW - when first investigating it I just found there were too many variables ie there was always an alternative count and everything was re-assessed "after the event". But if it works for you - that's great.

Personally I use Andrews' Forks (sometimes in combination with other indicators) and find them to be incredibly accurate. For example a 240min fork I drew in late March gave me the bottom of gold's recent dip to $1.20. Until I find another indicator that can approach that level of accuracy I will stick with forks...

beeb

About Andrews' Forks, IMO the theory behind that is actually originated from W.D. Gann (and maybe also from Dow Theory), but Gann covers much more and deeper.

Being a simple soul - I find that it's their simplicity and accessibility that is the attraction - over and beyond their accuracy...

beeb

07/23/2011

Comments are welcome!

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/atta...3-sp-daily.png

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/atta...gold-daily.png

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/atta...-eur-daily.png

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/atta...-jpy-daily.png

Can you expalin little bit about eur/usd. The price is 1.4355ow?

It could then first go up to 1.4570 then down to 1.3600.
The alternative count will bring it to 1.4940 before going a long term down.

07/27/2011

Comments are welcome!

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/atta...p-intraday.jpg

07/30/2011

We have completed a monthly bar for July this weekend, so my weekly post is monthly chart instead of daily one. Comments are welcome!

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/atta...sp-monthly.png

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/atta...py-monthly.png

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/atta...ld-monthly.png

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/atta...ur-monthly.png