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Silent Service Method

  • #12,621
  • Jul 5, 2011 8:37pm Jul 5, 2011 8:37pm
Quoting clockwork71
I think there could be a great unwind starting.
Chris, I agree in general across the board.....the AUD is in a similar boat I reckon (overextended at least)....however, until these currencies break down it is follow the trend based on technical's. (Mr. State the obvious here...sorry)

So assume that your bias now on CHF is just neutral not bullish. It took me a while to realise that having no conviction actually IS having a position....you are just being flat. Its not always Long or Short.....I have found that this attitude can cost money.

Anyhow, I shorted the EUR/CHF yesterday and am now in enough profit to move stops at BE.......playing with house money in front of EUR rates Thursday and NFP Friday....my fingers are crossed.
  • #12,622
  • Jul 5, 2011 10:28pm Jul 5, 2011 10:28pm
Quoting mypipbull
Chris, I agree in general across the board.....the AUD is in a similar boat I reckon (overextended at least)....however, until these currencies break down it is follow the trend based on technical's. (Mr. State the obvious here...sorry)

So assume that your bias now on CHF is just neutral not bullish. It took me a while to realise that having no conviction actually IS having a position....you are just being flat. Its not always Long or Short.....I have found that this attitude can cost money.

Anyhow, I shorted the EUR/CHF yesterday and am now in...
If you look at the GBP/CHF pair - that daily chart was beautiful, and there is obvious resistance just above the 1.36 area. That was a chart I am kicking myself for not shorting today. But the point is this:

I am not bearish of the CHF as a currency. What I believe is that we could see an unwinding of the massive long CHF position, but not a reversal, and there is a huge difference between those two positions. I feel that the European issues continue, and Greece will default. But that great move won't play out for a while. So if we get a bounce over the next several months, so be it. I just get to short from higher levels is all.....

And you are correct - being neutral is a position.
  • #12,623
  • Jul 5, 2011 11:58pm Jul 5, 2011 11:58pm
Quoting clockwork71
unwinding of the massive long CHF position
Firstly, I fully respect your flat position on the CHF.
I am no expert on this that is for sure....this is just my take on the futures charts for CHF. I see Commercial Traders adding to long positions and Funds adding to short positions meanwhile the CHF has been going up (funds/specs shorting it and losing I assume?).......this is a little unusual....but at the end of the day the Funds positions have to be closed for profit or loss (surely losses).
Until the Commercials are done buying (or technical's show an unwinding maybe break of the trendline) I'll keep looking to buy dips on good technical on the CHF.
Just my A$0.10c worth......
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  • #12,624
  • Jul 6, 2011 3:22am Jul 6, 2011 3:22am
Quoting clockwork71
I tend to read Bloomberg, FT.com, and just kind of keep an eye on the stories here at FF. I try not to over complicate that either. Welcome, and thanks for your kind words!
thanks... I'll try to find a bit of time to check the headlines. As for the videos thread, I think my wife would leave me if I started watching too many of those.

Stewrigh - I wouldn't personally trade anything based on the fundamentals but they might give me an extra reason to think twice before getting involved in a trade.
  • #12,625
  • Jul 6, 2011 3:27am Jul 6, 2011 3:27am
Quoting stewrigh
Ludwell,

I hesitate to give you advice because I don't know where you entered or what timeframe you were trading or risk tolerance equity etc etc but .. you really shouldn't have been stopped out.

2 observations - EU is likely to raise rates this week - if they don't Euro will drop - if they do it'll probly still drop unless they raise more than 25bp. Wait till after the decision.

SNB stopped intervening last year when they lost a packet last time they tried.

Anyway you might wanna consider getting back in - after the news tho.

At the moment I'm on the fence with this one. I'm going to test my patience a bit and let it unfold for a while. I was hoping to see it continue moving up towards the weekly trendline to short it again around there but it's just had a pretty steep fall so I guess whatever had pushed it to the 1.23 level so quickly must've run out of steam. Looks like you had a nice trade there mate...congrats.
  • #12,626
  • Jul 6, 2011 8:06am Jul 6, 2011 8:06am
Quoting mypipbull
Just my A$0.10c worth......
Don't us A$0.10c, that's like $25 us dollars now isn't it?
  • #12,627
  • Jul 6, 2011 6:56pm Jul 6, 2011 6:56pm
Quoting clockwork71
Don't us A$0.10c, that's like $25 us dollars now isn't it?
...true....finally after that trip to the US when I was getting US$0.55 to A$1......payback......
  • #12,628
  • Jul 7, 2011 12:07am Jul 7, 2011 12:07am
Looking at the USD/CAD I find the area we saw the long wick at very interesting. On the 4 hour, we had a perfect shooting star. Why does this interest me?

 

  1. The trend is down
  2. The area we are finding resistance is former support
  3. The oil inventory numbers come out tomorrow
  4. The CAD is highly sensitive to oil over the long run

I wonder if the oil inventory numbers will provide enough of a shock to push this back down? Also, this is NFP week, and a good number sells the USD off....so there are catalysts to make this happen. Sitting here and waiting....

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  • #12,629
  • Jul 7, 2011 11:23am Jul 7, 2011 11:23am
Look like the CAD is falling......
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  • #12,630
  • Jul 7, 2011 8:13pm Jul 7, 2011 8:13pm
blog updated.
  • #12,631
  • Jul 8, 2011 12:11am Jul 8, 2011 12:11am
Quoting clockwork71
blog updated.
Hi Chris,
I was reading your blog. Especially ones related to EUR ( and I think one on 27June about week ahead).
You have mentioned you will not buy EUR ( and is worst than USD). But looking at weekly trend on EURUSD, it only says I should buy ( since it has been in uptrend). Can you please elaborate?
p.s. I am not questioning your thought process but I think I have missed something only wanted to learn more.

cheers
  • #12,632
  • Jul 8, 2011 12:46am Jul 8, 2011 12:46am
Quoting Imphilomath
Hi Chris,
I was reading your blog. Especially ones related to EUR ( and I think one on 27June about week ahead).
You have mentioned you will not buy EUR ( and is worst than USD). But looking at weekly trend on EURUSD, it only says I should buy ( since it has been in uptrend). Can you please elaborate?
p.s. I am not questioning your thought process but I think I have missed something only wanted to learn more.

cheers
Thats why I don't trade EurUsd - they're both basket cases and I just can't bring myself to buy either of them.
  • #12,633
  • Jul 8, 2011 1:01am Jul 8, 2011 1:01am
Think I mentioned this the other day - Like it even more now.

I especially like the way I get paid just for holding it.


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  • #12,634
  • Jul 8, 2011 8:46am Jul 8, 2011 8:46am
Quoting Imphilomath
Hi Chris,
I was reading your blog. Especially ones related to EUR ( and I think one on 27June about week ahead).
You have mentioned you will not buy EUR ( and is worst than USD). But looking at weekly trend on EURUSD, it only says I should buy ( since it has been in uptrend). Can you please elaborate?
p.s. I am not questioning your thought process but I think I have missed something only wanted to learn more.

cheers
The reason is shown be every time it falls - it falls quickly. There are too many pieces of bad news coming out of Europe randomly, so I just don't feel it is worth the risk. It wasn't a reflection on the EUR/USD pair itself, rather a reflection on the EUR.

Like EUR/JPY EUR/CHF etc.....
  • #12,635
  • Jul 8, 2011 8:46am Jul 8, 2011 8:46am
Quoting stewrigh
Thats why I don't trade EurUsd - they're both basket cases and I just can't bring myself to buy either of them.
Yeah, and to be honest...I am sure a lot of people are getting chopped up trading it these days.
  • #12,636
  • Jul 8, 2011 8:47am Jul 8, 2011 8:47am
Quoting stewrigh
Think I mentioned this the other day - Like it even more now.

I especially like the way I get paid just for holding it.


Attachment
Add to that the fact that gold is massively bullish, and you have a good trade. I think 1.10 is coming soon.
  • #12,637
  • Jul 8, 2011 4:28pm Jul 8, 2011 4:28pm
Quoting clockwork71
FUNNY,

At 5 pm EST - my Interbank FX feed froze. Imagine that. This is why I am starting to hate anything that isn't an ECN.
I know that ECN brokers don't implement a spread in the usual sense but how do the commisions stack up in relation to paying the spread? I'm in the process of shopping around as my trade size is increasing and Alpari micro account only allows me max open positions of 2 lots. (across the board, not per trade)

Let's say I took a trade for 5 lots in eurusd the spread is 1.6 pips so the cost of the spread would be 5 x 1.6 pips = 8 x $10 = $80 (I pay in GBP but it amounts to the same).

How much would the same trade cost me using an ECN broker and how is it calculated? Is it a percentage of my gains?
  • #12,638
  • Jul 8, 2011 7:57pm Jul 8, 2011 7:57pm
Quoting Hugh Briss
I know that ECN brokers don't implement a spread in the usual sense but how do the commisions stack up in relation to paying the spread? I'm in the process of shopping around as my trade size is increasing and Alpari micro account only allows me max open positions of 2 lots. (across the board, not per trade)

Let's say I took a trade for 5 lots in eurusd the spread is 1.6 pips so the cost of the spread would be 5 x 1.6 pips = 8 x $10 = $80 (I pay in GBP but it amounts to the same).

How much would the same trade cost me using an ECN broker and...
It depends. Some of these brokers make it a percentage of the trade size, some have a flat fee per 100,000 or so. Off the top of my head, I think I pay about 1.0 pips on the EUR/USD on average (sometimes less), and the commission is $2.50 a turn for a total of $5. (Roughly)

So if you enter a position of $200,000 in EUR/USD, you would have a spread of 1 pip, which would be $20, and the turns would be a total of $5. This makes a total of $25.

When you are playing even larger lots, it gets cheaper. I should tell you that the other brokers can be cheaper, like MB Trading or Dukascopy. (Being in the UK - I recommend Dukascopy......I wish I could trade through them.) They have a very cheap per turn cost which is scaled by trade size, but have stopped dealing with American clients.

Look into these three brokers first, and run some numbers....I chose Interactive Brokers simply because I wanted to be able to trade multiple markets, but they are not the cheapest when it comes to Forex....
  • #12,639
  • Jul 8, 2011 8:03pm Jul 8, 2011 8:03pm
I had someone ask me in a message how I did with NFP today. I was short USD/CAD, and remain so. But instead of worrying about it.....I went and checked out the GoodGuys Nationals today. It's the largest HotRod and Classic Car show in North America. Over 6,000 cars entered this year.......
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  • #12,640
  • Jul 9, 2011 12:02am Jul 9, 2011 12:02am
I'm guessing it's rained a lot recently where you are because you appear to have shrunk!

Nice cars!
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