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Order Flow - Achieving the mindset

  • #2,341
  • Jul 5, 2011 6:24pm Jul 5, 2011 6:24pm
Quoting Tact1cal
Since we're on the subject, kinda. Anyone want to talk risk appetite.....
We started the week off cautiously bullish on EUR but all the news with credit rating agencies has put more uncertainty in the air....which I think is making people rethink and ponder where were going next....If we get some good rhetoric from rating agencies later i'd see it as risk back on for the euro...
  • #2,342
  • Jul 5, 2011 7:35pm Jul 5, 2011 7:35pm
yo

lumesh, I'm not saying that I think the rate hike is completely priced in; however, I think that the pricing in of last week's expectations ended last week, and the market had forgotten about it by monday..

and that if the market were to re-focus on the rate hike event, which it almost certainly will by tomorrow, to cover additional ground in the positive territory, after 6 consecutive days of that, we would need to enter into some negative territory first. plus when I saw PA from the asian session at 4550... and all those stops below the RR was good enough for me to take a shot.. plus all the shit about china, i was getting the risk-off vibe at the time.

glad you can take some kidding
  • #2,343
  • Jul 5, 2011 7:43pm Jul 5, 2011 7:43pm
Quote
We started the week off cautiously bullish on EUR but all the news with credit rating agencies has put more uncertainty in the air....which I think is making people rethink and ponder where were going next....
Yeah the news to start the week was lame(I was long). Bailout tranche wasn't news, Possible delay on second bailout package, bad credit agency banter, weak China news, Australia numbers were mostly weak too.(playing aussie and euro). Sovereign dollar selling has been keeping us floating though.

Quote
If we get some good rhetoric from rating agencies later i'd see it as risk back on for the euro...
I'd hit it.
Cautiously optimistic. . .
  • #2,344
  • Jul 5, 2011 8:14pm Jul 5, 2011 8:14pm
Quoting RichFWebb
glad you can take some kidding
My apologies, I had no idea you were kidding, hard to pick up subtleties like that through written word! I'll hold my tongue next time!

I don't want this thread to descend into amateurish mud slinging and name calling, we already have enough of those here at FF. This thread has some great discussion going...
  • #2,345
  • Jul 5, 2011 9:44pm Jul 5, 2011 9:44pm
So I plotted some rumors on my chart today, offers at 4435 - 4445, watched the market eat through those and move higher. Offers rumored at 4460, with sell stops above (how far above and how many unknown). It's working that level right now. More offer rumors at 4480.

Buy stops reported at 4380, with bids rumored at 4400 - 4390.

My first thought would be to fade the stops above 4460 down into the stops at 4480 - 4450, while taking risk off ahead of 4400 - 4490 in case the bids at tha level are large and stop further downside movement. This latest up move is looking pretty suspect to me. But of course that 4600 option barrier is looming above, with more barriers a few handles above that too. The buy stops between 4380-4350, I wonder if there is a bunch of them in there? Might be an attractive target if there is. More attractive right now then a move back up towards 4600. If I were the smart guy maybe I would go for the stops down below, trying to get the majority from long to short, and then revers it back long towards the barrier, using buy stops from the new sellers to fuel the move back up.

But what about fundamentally? I know my analysis is not taking into account any fundamentals.

Just thinking out loud, any comments / criticisms welcome.
  • #2,346
  • Jul 5, 2011 10:02pm Jul 5, 2011 10:02pm
I've got Usd/Chf & Gbp/Chf falling from round #'s, Eur/Chf searching for orders. Some good flow plays with Gbp/Aud & Eur/Aud
  • #2,347
  • Edited 11:07pm Jul 5, 2011 10:57pm | Edited 11:07pm
Quoting Jimmy Jones
So I plotted some rumors on my chart today, offers at 4435 - 4445, watched the market eat through those and move higher. Offers rumored at 4460, with sell stops above (how far above and how many unknown). It's working that level right now. More offer rumors at 4480.

Buy stops reported at 4380, with bids rumored at 4400 - 4390.

My first thought would be to fade the stops above 4460 down into the stops at 4480 - 4450, while taking risk off ahead of 4400 - 4490 in case the bids at tha level are large and stop further downside movement. This latest...
Honestly man, think about it... have you ever tried drawing the major technicals on the longer timeframes? things like the pennant that EUR/USD almost just broke out of, basic S/R levels, major trendlines, basic fibs and shit? it's funny how all these "orders" line up with all that stuff.

Again, it's best to think of the fundamentals, sentiment, expectations, future events, context, positioning. etc

thinking about the market trying to attack a barrier 200 pips away is of little concern when there is much more important things coming up in the next few days. If we were close to it and you thought people in a position to take advantage of it, then you could be thinking about it.

I'd be thinking about tomorrow's data, more importantly thursday, and friday... thinking about what I said earlier.
  • #2,348
  • Jul 5, 2011 11:20pm Jul 5, 2011 11:20pm
Quoting Monroe
Honestly man, think about it... have you ever tried drawing the major technicals on the longer timeframes? things like the pennant that EUR/USD almost just broke out of, basic S/R levels, major trendlines, basic fibs and shit? it's funny how all these "orders" line up with all that stuff.

Again, it's best to think of the fundamentals, sentiment, expectations, future events, context, positioning. etc

thinking about the market trying to attack a barrier 200 pips away is of little concern when there is much more important things coming up in...
Thanks for the reply Monroe.

It seems, in reading through Darkstars posts, that I have not detected the fundamentals side of his process. He talks about liquidity, and stops, and option barriers a lot, but I can't remember much about fundamentals. I must go back through now and read again...
  • #2,349
  • Jul 5, 2011 11:27pm Jul 5, 2011 11:27pm
I dont think DS posted fundy trading info. Long the strong currencies, short the weak.
  • #2,350
  • Jul 5, 2011 11:32pm Jul 5, 2011 11:32pm
Quoting EmeraldEyes
I dont think DS posted fundy trading info. Long the strong currencies, short the weak.
simple yet effective... of course, there must be a reason why they are strong or weak though...
  • #2,351
  • Jul 5, 2011 11:35pm Jul 5, 2011 11:35pm
Quoting Monroe
simple yet effective... of course, there must be a reason why they are strong or weak though...
  • #2,352
  • Jul 5, 2011 11:40pm Jul 5, 2011 11:40pm
Quoting Monroe
simple yet effective... of course, there must be a reason why they are strong or weak though...
I think the answer to that is interest rates. Capital seeks the highest rate of return. I had some thoughts around this a few months ago. But in my studies around that it did not appear that the movement of a specific currency followed interest rates. Perhaps I was off.

F&ck.

  • #2,353
  • Jul 5, 2011 11:42pm Jul 5, 2011 11:42pm
just to add another thing, I have seen darkstar talk about the fundamentals.

He talks more about order flow of course. for instance in scotty b's thread at the time of the greek crap going on last year...

He was saying how the fundamentals looked better for the USD basically, but that shit didn't matter in that situation, because a lot of money escaped the euro after the greek shit hit the fan. He was saying no matter what, in that case it didn't matter because money will flow back into euro denominated assets once the greek situation was under control and that was why you were seeing bullish signals on the charts at the time. He was talking about future orderflow and outcomes to certain events that were taking place and trying to get in ahead and profit from it.

This was after he was much further ahead in his development as a trader, then at the time of ohh sweet liquidity, though the mechanics are the same.
  • #2,354
  • Jul 5, 2011 11:44pm Jul 5, 2011 11:44pm
Quoting Jimmy Jones
I think the answer to that is interest rates. Capital seeks the highest rate of return. I had some thoughts around this a few months ago. But in my studies around that it did not appear that the movement of a specific currency followed interest rates. Perhaps I was off.

F&ck.

no it's not always interest rates, what about CHF then?
  • #2,355
  • Jul 5, 2011 11:48pm Jul 5, 2011 11:48pm
Quoting Monroe
no it's not always interest rates, what about CHF then?
Ok, something to think about. Thanks!

My first thought is safety...
  • #2,356
  • Jul 6, 2011 2:32am Jul 6, 2011 2:32am
Quoting Monroe
Honestly man, think about it... have you ever tried drawing the major technicals on the longer timeframes? things like the pennant that EUR/USD almost just broke out of, basic S/R levels, major trendlines, basic fibs and shit? it's funny how all these "orders" line up with all that stuff.

Again, it's best to think of the fundamentals, sentiment, expectations, future events, context, positioning. etc

thinking about the market trying to attack a barrier 200 pips away is of little concern when there is much more important things coming up in...
Seriously, iam blown away for the last 2 weeks that am Doing this.

Now stops were reported below 2050 on echf and the level is right below the 50 fib.

Now it all makes sense why price just edges out of SR sometimes and comes back
.
  • #2,357
  • Jul 6, 2011 3:27am Jul 6, 2011 3:27am
Quoting Monroe
Honestly man, think about it... have you ever tried drawing the major technicals on the longer timeframes? things like the pennant that EUR/USD almost just broke out of, basic S/R levels, major trendlines, basic fibs and shit? it's funny how all these "orders" line up with all that stuff.

Again, it's best to think of the fundamentals, sentiment, expectations, future events, context, positioning. etc

thinking about the market trying to attack a barrier 200 pips away is of little concern when there is much more important things...

But where else could they be ?
  • #2,358
  • Jul 6, 2011 3:30am Jul 6, 2011 3:30am
Quoting lumesh
But where else could they be ?
lol all over the place...
  • #2,359
  • Jul 6, 2011 6:09am Jul 6, 2011 6:09am
Quote
It seems, in reading through Darkstars posts, that I have not detected the fundamentals side of his process. He talks about liquidity, and stops, and option barriers a lot, but I can't remember much about fundamentals. I must go back through now and read again...

He doesn't necessarily talk fundamentals because fundamentals don't run this game. He talks about expectations a lot though.

Quote
Today is a HUGE day! I don't know what there going to do, but if they maintain the status quo, we get a decent dollar rally. If they hold rates today we get a huge selloff. The highest probability is a rate hike with a statement change, but I have no ideawhat should happen simply because that's what is priced into the markets.

Quote
I'm personally hoping they hold rates. If they do it will be the biggest profit day of my life thus far...

Quote
It may seem like a simple question, but the answer is probably far more complicated then would be expected. I'll try and answer the economic implications of interest rates on currency valuation after the announcement (if I start now I'll miss it...). But for the moment we can just say that todays movement will not really be about economics, it will be about expectations.

The general perception (which can easily be derived by watching price action after announcements) is that higher interest rates are good for the dollar. The higher...

Darkstar's old posts are awesome.
Cautiously optimistic. . .
  • #2,360
  • Jul 6, 2011 6:18am Jul 6, 2011 6:18am
Quoting Tact1cal
He doesn't necessarily talk fundamentals because fundamentals don't run this game. He talks about expectations a lot though.







Darkstar's old posts are awesome.
So what ended up happening that day?
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