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Order Flow - Achieving the mindset

  • #2,301
  • Jul 5, 2011 8:16am Jul 5, 2011 8:16am
Quoting Monroe
I cannot reveal my plays in public anymore, but I can say that there are some offers from people front running the ichi cloud and stops above though...
Ah! Thats too bad. Here I was enjoying your insights on different pairs.
  • #2,302
  • Jul 5, 2011 8:33am Jul 5, 2011 8:33am
Quoting frankkn
Hey guys, I'm an order flow infant. Hope it's cool to post around while I wait for my T&E to show up.

So there are rumors of EU stops from 4415-4450, could they be used to fuel a drive to the barrier at 4600? 4600 also happens to be daily supply, from a more technical standpoint.

Can anyone comment on my thought process?
Unless I'm misunderstanding (which is possible), your thinking is backwards.

Price is currently at 4475. The stops from 4415-4450 are below the market, while the barrier at 4600 is above the market.

If stops at 4415-4450 are hit, it would fuel a down move, OR if there are enough limit-buy orders there, price would stall at those stops (in the latter case, the stops would be used to help someone fill a buy order).

In other words, if someone is trying to drive price into those stops, they are either trying to fuel a further down move, or (more likely) they are trying to fill a large buy order (in which case, they are using limit-buy orders to get matched with the sell stops).

I hope that was clear.
  • #2,303
  • Jul 5, 2011 8:36am Jul 5, 2011 8:36am
Quoting vicky_ag
Ah! Thats too bad. Here I was enjoying your insights on different pairs.
Glad you enjoyed. Of course, I'll still share some insight here and there sure, but that's different then sharing my positions!
  • #2,304
  • Jul 5, 2011 9:06am Jul 5, 2011 9:06am
Quoting relyt
Unless I'm misunderstanding (which is possible), your thinking is backwards.

Price is currently at 4475. The stops from 4415-4450 are below the market, while the barrier at 4600 is above the market.

If stops at 4415-4450 are hit, it would fuel a down move, OR if there are enough limit-buy orders there, price would stall at those stops (in the latter case, the stops would be used to help someone fill a buy order).

In other words, if someone is trying to drive price into those stops, they are either trying to fuel a further down move, or (more...
Hey buddy, thank you for the reply.

My thinking is that the stops could be used to provide liquidity to professionals who want to take out the barrier
  • #2,305
  • Jul 5, 2011 9:10am Jul 5, 2011 9:10am
Quoting frankkn
Hey buddy, thank you for the reply.

My thinking is that the stops could be used to provide liquidity to professionals who want to take out the barrier
It's not just about the barrier, and besides, there's more barriers at 4650 and the big one at 4700 from a 1.4 - 1.47 DNT
  • #2,306
  • Jul 5, 2011 9:12am Jul 5, 2011 9:12am
Quoting frankkn
Hey buddy, thank you for the reply.

My thinking is that the stops could be used to provide liquidity to professionals who want to take out the barrier
Assuming the 4600 barrier is being protected heavily, anyone who is wanting to take out the barrier is going to run into enough selling pressure by the defenders (before they get to the 4600 level). They don't need to fight additional sell stops that would be triggered if price fell below 4450-4415.

Ideally, the attackers would want to get other buyers on board to help them crack the barrier. In my opinion, triggering the sell stops below 4450-4415 would not entice the additional buyers that the attackers need.

If anyone disagrees with me, feel free to voice your opinion. It is possible that I'm thinking about this the wrong way.
  • #2,307
  • Jul 5, 2011 9:18am Jul 5, 2011 9:18am
Quoting Monroe
It's not just about the barrier, and besides, there's more barriers at 4650 and the big one at 4700 from a 1.4 - 1.47 DNT
Interesting. I'm just looking at forexlive. Oanda news refuses to open even though I download the new java, clear my cache, and restart my browser/computer.

I downloaded FXCM's crazy platform but can't seem to find their news feed. Any suggestions?

You mention that it is not just about the barriers, can you elaborate?


Quoting relyt
Assuming the 4600 barrier is being protected heavily, anyone who is wanting to take out the barrier is going to run into enough selling pressure by the defenders (before they get to the 4600 level). They don't need to fight additional sell stops that would be triggered if price fell below 4450-4415.

Ideally, the attackers would want to get other buyers on board to help them crack the barrier. In my opinion, triggering the sell stops below 4450-4415 would not entice the additional buyers that the attackers need.

If anyone disagrees with...
Interesting, thanks for sharing your ideas
  • #2,308
  • Jul 5, 2011 9:25am Jul 5, 2011 9:25am
Quoting relyt
Assuming the 4600 barrier is being protected heavily, anyone who is wanting to take out the barrier is going to run into enough selling pressure by the defenders (before they get to the 4600 level). They don't need to fight additional sell stops that would be triggered if price fell below 4450-4415.

Ideally, the attackers would want to get other buyers on board to help them crack the barrier. In my opinion, triggering the sell stops below 4450-4415 would not entice the additional buyers that the attackers need.

If anyone disagrees with me,...
Correct me if I'm wrong I'm pretty new to this OF stuff...

ATM there is a liquid market. Could this be the sellers from the move down this morning running into equal buying pressure. If the sell stops are noted below 1.4450 and price has not even reached there yet. Does this mean that the liquidity has already been found at current market price and thus a Vacuum is being created outside of this liquidity range we are seeing to the topside?

Also you said before about enticing the buyers...Maybe we will see a push for the barrier once the vacuum is exposed.


I could be speaking the biggest crap in the whole world :S
  • #2,309
  • Jul 5, 2011 9:25am Jul 5, 2011 9:25am
Fxcm supports dailyfx now, they suck imo.

Were not going after barriers until we get a change in sentiment. We need fresh buyers to open new positions.
Cautiously optimistic. . .
  • #2,310
  • Edited 9:37am Jul 5, 2011 9:26am | Edited 9:37am
Quoting frankkn
Interesting. I'm just looking at forexlive. Oanda news refuses to open even though I download the new java, clear my cache, and restart my browser/computer.

I downloaded FXCM's crazy platform but can't seem to find their news feed. Any suggestions?

You mention that it is not just about the barriers, can you elaborate?
Well, I'm saying you can't just think the only incentive for players to go long is to target a barrier at 4600, especially when that's not even the big barrier... there are other incentives for money to flow into the Euro, but we'll have to see what happens this Thursday.

Players hunt stops to move size and get a better yield on there positions, so they are used for liquidity to liquidate or accumulate positions. So to answer your previous question, I would say they can definitely accumulate into the stops below the market for a move higher.

Oh.. regarding the fxnews feed, that is weird, sometimes the shit gives me problems but usually after I clear the cache it works.

Try connecting and then if it doesn't connect after a minute, go to where it says "connection" on the menu and hit "connect" again, or try disconnecting and reconnecting... see if that works.

I think fxstreet also has info on their news feed as well, you can try that.
  • #2,311
  • Jul 5, 2011 9:27am Jul 5, 2011 9:27am
Quoting relyt
Unless I'm misunderstanding (which is possible), your thinking is backwards.

Price is currently at 4475. The stops from 4415-4450 are below the market, while the barrier at 4600 is above the market.

If stops at 4415-4450 are hit, it would fuel a down move, OR if there are enough limit-buy orders there, price would stall at those stops (in the latter case, the stops would be used to help someone fill a buy order).

In other words, if someone is trying to drive price into those stops, they are either trying to fuel a further down move,...


And that large buy order may come from an "informed trader" which means that the price has a "reason" to start going further up.

Any stop hunt in it's nature is nothing but a, simply put, a mispricing of that market instrument driving the value further away from where "it should be" (i repeat, simply put ).

Maybe i'm wrong but it does feel like for most of you OF trading is about STOP HUNTING. It's not. To me at least. It's about understanding sentiment, fundamentals and positionings together with price. How does they relate to each other ? Which one creates the other one ? When is sentiment creating price changes and when price changes create sentiment ? Where did we come from fundamental-wise and price-wise and where are we going ?When is new information needed to create price changes and when does price change without the existence of new information ? and so on and on...

Once you start thinking that way you may find it more logical to buy into stops rather than pushing into them especially when you don't have a "reliable" order book at hand. Not saying that IFR isn't good enough, it probably is to many, but i think when Darkstar posted it's Silver play back in the day he was probably exploiting something other than Forexlive, IFR rumors. I could be wrong though.

But that's just my 2 cents of course.
  • #2,312
  • Jul 5, 2011 9:34am Jul 5, 2011 9:34am
I appreciate the articulate responses from everyone

I've got a lot more studying to do
  • #2,313
  • Jul 5, 2011 9:36am Jul 5, 2011 9:36am
Spot on lumesh. stop hunts are a small part of a much larger picture.
Cautiously optimistic. . .
  • #2,314
  • Jul 5, 2011 9:37am Jul 5, 2011 9:37am
It's just we have to wait and see whether the sellers have found the liquidity to liquidate their positions at the moment?

Or will they push for the stops below for more liquidity.....
  • #2,315
  • Jul 5, 2011 9:42am Jul 5, 2011 9:42am
Quoting relyt
Assuming the 4600 barrier is being protected heavily, anyone who is wanting to take out the barrier is going to run into enough selling pressure by the defenders (before they get to the 4600 level). They don't need to fight additional sell stops that would be triggered if price fell below 4450-4415.

Ideally, the attackers would want to get other buyers on board to help them crack the barrier. In my opinion, triggering the sell stops below 4450-4415 would not entice the additional buyers that the attackers need.

If anyone disagrees with me,...

Agreed. Noone is buying the market 150pips away from barrier just to take it out.

If those barriers are taken out in the future it's because the market as a whole expects the price to rise because of sentiment, fundamentals, techs or whatever reason but not because there is a barrier. And when you understand all that and can put the current price next to it then you ALREADY know with high probabilty whether it is likely that the price will reach to 4600.

Now, I'm being realistic of course, theoretically, there could be a fcked up size of barrier there (stops beyond) or some other out of earth size standing buy stops in every 5 pips from now til 4600 that it would actually make sense to start attacking now or whenever.
  • #2,316
  • Edited 9:58am Jul 5, 2011 9:45am | Edited 9:58am
Quoting lumesh
And that large buy order may come from an "informed trader" which means that the price has a "reason" to start going further up.

Any stop hunt in it's nature is nothing but a, simply put, a mispricing of that market instrument driving the value further away from where "it should be" (i repeat, simply put ).

Maybe i'm wrong but it does feel like for most of you OF trading is about STOP HUNTING. It's not. To me at least. It's about understanding sentiment, fundamentals and positionings together with price. How does they relate to each...
Yes this has been stated many times before, but it's always useful to post it again, good post. It's better to think about the fundamentals, sentiment/expectations, positioning, etc... and think about the orderflow in context with that.
  • #2,317
  • Jul 5, 2011 10:06am Jul 5, 2011 10:06am
Quoting Monroe
Yes this has been stated many times before, but it's always useful to post it again, good post. It's better to think about the fundamentals, sentiment/expectations, positioning, etc... and think about the orderflow in context with that.

However, IFR gives you plenty of info to profit intraday with stop, options, sentiment, orderflow, etc.
Agreed.

But the key question is:

Is it REALLY ONLY about the money ?

Is this what you are after ? To build a probabilistic system out of standing orders and only trade that and accept a loss as a probabilistic outcome of that system ? Where is the progress ?

Fair enough, if you're very good at it then you make a lot of money but DO YOU REALLY understand the market and the economy as a whole ?

i think you would be better off spending your energy to get a job at Deucshe Bank, UBS etc. and get access to their internal books rather than relying on some middle man.

I guess it all comes down to personal preferences and by no means am i against trading IFR rumors ...i, personally, don't pay too much attention to IFR cause a lot of stops can be guessed technically and i set my trades accordingly.
  • #2,318
  • Edited 10:20am Jul 5, 2011 10:09am | Edited 10:20am
Quoting lumesh
Agreed.

But the key question is:

Is it REALLY ONLY about the money ?

Is this what you are after ? To build a probabilistic system out of standing orders and only trade that and accept a loss as a probabilistic outcome of that system ? Where is the progress ?

Fair enough, if you're very good at it then you make a lot of money but DO YOU REALLY understand the market and the economy as a whole ?

i think you would be better off spending your energy to get a job at Deucshe Bank, UBS etc. and get access to their internal books rather than...
Is that what you think I do or am endorsing? You think I don't understand the bigger picture and incorperate that in my trading? fair enough... but I dont think you have read more posts then.

I do play Intraday, and I agree and have stated plenty of times before, you can tell where the stops and orders likely are without IFR or rumors. I also can not look at a chart completely and profit from just reading IFR. Either which way, it definitely helps.

Never were my systems built only on order info alone, so I'm not sure what you were talking about there.
  • #2,319
  • Jul 5, 2011 10:15am Jul 5, 2011 10:15am
Quoting lumesh

Is it REALLY ONLY about the money ?

Absolutely Once I have enough to live extremely comfortably for the rest of my life I won't lose sleep over not fully understanding the economy
  • #2,320
  • Jul 5, 2011 10:19am Jul 5, 2011 10:19am
What's the point of forum invisibility lol.
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