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Nanningbob 60x90 EA

  • #3,821
  • Jul 3, 2011 3:41am Jul 3, 2011 3:41am
Bob I am able to hedge. If the aud/chf trade continues to rise tomorrow would you recommend putting a hedge trade in? I am currently L2 at .05 total lot size. I was thinking of hedging at .02 to lessen the DD, using the "open sell close buy" ea to close the hedge trade, changing the shift from 3 to 2 so this matches the current recovery ea.
  • #3,822
  • Jul 3, 2011 5:41am Jul 3, 2011 5:41am
Quoting Frodog
Bob I am able to hedge. If the aud/chf trade continues to rise tomorrow would you recommend putting a hedge trade in? I am currently L2 at .05 total lot size. I was thinking of hedging at .02 to lessen the DD, using the "open sell close buy" ea to close the hedge trade, changing the shift from 3 to 2 so this matches the current recovery ea.
I was planning on putting a warning out on the CHF crosses. During this Greece thing the CHF as become the favorite currency to hide money until the dust settles. I am expecting the CHF to make quite a run and as I have found out in the past once it does these slow trend runs in one direction they dont retrace much at all. However, when you get large candles like we have had 3 of the last 4 days you usually get a good retrace before it takes off again. I am going to look for the swing part of the 1,2,3 swing trade to get out and then go into buy mode. If you hedge I dont think you will lose on the buy trade fundamentally and then you can look for a retrace to get rid of the sell. For me I get to put my patience and 10.0 to the test. Usually I would reenter around every 200 pips but this time I am going to wait for the cross on the daily or I will just take the hit and bail out. I figure I still have 24-48 hours to decide. In reality I am only two levels deep so either way getting out now would not be a bad decision. Over 50% of my DD is involved in the CHF cross pairs. But the one thing I really want to try is my 10.0 recovery plan. This is a perfect spot to test it. Since I am trading pennies there is not much money riding on this at .02 first level trade. So I probably will go with the 10.0 test live and see how I do.
  • #3,823
  • Jul 3, 2011 3:10pm Jul 3, 2011 3:10pm
Great. We need patience. Technique analysis work not well in the big news-guided market. EURO is supposed to hike rate on July 7. I would short non-USD after July 7 if non-USD are still on the top. Australia GDP is -1.2% this Q1. Anyway, USDCAD is very attractive now. We need keep attention on the progress of US debt limit and deficit cut. Other thing we need take care:
sp500 rebound strongly;
commodities like oil,soybean,corn,wheat down a lot;

Quoting nanningbob
I was planning on putting a warning out on the CHF crosses. During this Greece thing the CHF as become the favorite currency to hide money until the dust settles. I am expecting the CHF to make quite a run and as I have found out in the past once it does these slow trend runs in one direction they dont retrace much at all. However, when you get large candles like we have had 3 of the last 4 days you usually get a good retrace before it takes off again. I am going to look for the swing part of the 1,2,3 swing trade to get out and then go into buy...
  • #3,824
  • Jul 3, 2011 5:13pm Jul 3, 2011 5:13pm
Quoting bioinfor
Great. We need patience. Technique analysis work not well in the big news-guided market. EURO is supposed to hike rate on July 7. I would short non-USD after July 7 if non-USD are still on the top. Australia GDP is -1.2% this Q1. Anyway, USDCAD is very attractive now. We need keep attention on the progress of US debt limit and deficit cut. Other thing we need take care:
sp500 rebound strongly;
commodities like oil,soybean,corn,wheat down a lot;
Oh the fun of Forex and markets and trying to understand fundamentals and how they relate to everything. YUCK.
  • #3,825
  • Jul 5, 2011 2:12am Jul 5, 2011 2:12am
2 L3 trades entered so far today. aud/jpy L2 was 70 pips in the hole when L3 entered. nzd/usd L2 was 45 pips in the hole when L3 entered. It seems like a very close entry. Around 170 pips in the hole from L1 and i'm already at L3. Maybe their should be a 150 pip min entry between L2 and L3. Normally at 170 in the hole you would be thinking about entering L2 as far as I understand
  • #3,826
  • Edited 7:08am Jul 5, 2011 6:50am | Edited 7:08am
Quoting Frodog
2 L3 trades entered so far today. aud/jpy L2 was 70 pips in the hole when L3 entered. nzd/usd L2 was 45 pips in the hole when L3 entered. It seems like a very close entry. Around 170 pips in the hole from L1 and i'm already at L3. Maybe their should be a 150 pip min entry between L2 and L3. Normally at 170 in the hole you would be thinking about entering L2 as far as I understand
You dont want them close together. Now the EA has them 100 pips apart and the third you take off of the daily but only if price has gotten away from you. You still have a chance at profit or BE off of those numbers so a third level is not necessary. Remember 3rd level only when there is a run. Often on trades like you just mentioned will not be profitable but I will close out when they get close to BE as a 2 level trade. My thinking is the first 2 levels of the EA equal what I used to use as a 1st level entry. I just now divide them up and make the two levels really be one trade. That is how I think of them.

So my order of thought is 1L think profit. If not, 2nd L profit or BE. If that doesnt happen then go to 3rd level. Always try to give that 2nd L a chance to BE or profit.
  • #3,827
  • Jul 5, 2011 6:58am Jul 5, 2011 6:58am
One thing I do sometimes, like I am worried about the CHF crosses. I try to limit my exposure. Even though I do not recommend using the EUR/CHF for trading right now I have been trading it for practice. I had my 1st level at .02, 2L at .03 and 3L .05 for a total exposure of .10. My .05 was larger than my .03 so I closed both for a small profit and then entered a new 2nd L at .02. I reduced my exposure by .06. If the new .02 becomes a loser it becomes easier for me to counter trade .04 total exposure than .10 I Also I dont get to kick myself for not taking advantage of a profit to eliminate debt. This technique has served me well many many times when getting rid of DD. Yes I know I could get out faster keeping the .10 exposure but I also have increased my ability to counter trade this pair if price goes against me too. I also did this with my gbp/cad, I reduced my exposure by 60%. If price continues to retrace I will be sitting good and if price goes against me I am sitting good.
  • #3,828
  • Jul 5, 2011 7:02am Jul 5, 2011 7:02am
Last week was a very slow week with a build up of DD. This week has seen it reduce by 50% so far. My wins were 34 and losers were 9. My increase of account was a very meager 1.6% but that happens in weeks like last one. This week is off to a good start and I have already bank 1/3 as much as I did all of last week. So here is my most recent graph. You can see dips in the graph as I close out BE or small loser trades. You can see the dip of taking the loss and then the dip back up again of the 2L profitable trade bringing my line back to where it was. I try to keep my equity curve on the up angle. Nothing dramatic or earth shattering but a nice slow steady climb is what I am looking for.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #3,829
  • Jul 5, 2011 11:28am Jul 5, 2011 11:28am
Quoting nanningbob
... I try to keep my equity curve on the up angle. Nothing dramatic or earth shattering but a nice slow steady climb is what I am looking for.
There was a report from Barclays Hedge Ranking of the TOP 10 funds managing more than $10Million. The post is rather long so I paste the link below. The top performer managed 32%. So we are doing very nicely, thank you very much. My account trading NB VER5 is up 65% so far this year!!!

You can see the full details below.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...37#post4745737

Kind Regards
  • #3,830
  • Jul 5, 2011 11:45am Jul 5, 2011 11:45am
Wow, your thread is more than >200pages. i need some time to diggest it..
that lot....
  • #3,831
  • Jul 5, 2011 6:40pm Jul 5, 2011 6:40pm
Quoting astral77
There was a report from Barclays Hedge Ranking of the TOP 10 funds managing more than $10Million. The post is rather long so I paste the link below. The top performer managed 32%. So we are doing very nicely, thank you very much. My account trading NB VER5 is up 65% so far this year!!!

You can see the full details below.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...37#post4745737

Kind Regards
As we all probably learned the hard way, when we toned down our expectations, that is when we became profitable. Heck I remember when I tried to win those IBFX monthly contests. All I did was learn some really bad habits LOL. Now I am beginning to think if I look at my trades and fall asleep I am trading the right way.
  • #3,832
  • Jul 5, 2011 6:41pm Jul 5, 2011 6:41pm
Quoting WengOn
Wow, your thread is more than >200pages. i need some time to diggest it..
that lot....
The 10.0 system only involves the last 10 pages so the rest is a learning experience.
  • #3,833
  • Jul 5, 2011 6:45pm Jul 5, 2011 6:45pm
My wife and I are going on a 5 day vacation so I wont be around to answer questions. I went ahead and put small TP or BE on all my trades and will not be entering any more trades today. Nice to see some really good developing reversals going on right now. I hope to have my first EA for the 10.0 trend trading system up and running later so it will run all by itself for the rest of the week. I like how it is developing so far. Anyway I wont be posting after today for a couple of days. I want to go someplace where there are no students, traders, friends, and just be alone and sleep.
  • #3,834
  • Jul 5, 2011 7:07pm Jul 5, 2011 7:07pm
wishing you a relaxing and enjoyable vacation. Enjoy yourself.
THanks for all your hard work.

Kind Regards
  • #3,835
  • Jul 11, 2011 11:43am Jul 11, 2011 11:43am
Quoting nanningbob
My wife and I are going on a 5 day vacation ...
I want to go someplace where there are no students, traders, friends, and just be alone and sleep.
Overdue. Well deserved. Please do it more frequently, sincerely.

King.
  • #3,836
  • Jul 11, 2011 7:27pm Jul 11, 2011 7:27pm
OK, last week had some DD, hit almost 10% of the account at one time but it came back down on the retraces. Even though I took two days off of trading I did set my trades up on the computer at the hotel and let the EA run last Friday. It did very well. You can see where I have been battling my DD but have brought all the trades back to BE except the gbp/cad and nzd/usd. The nzd/usd is retracing now (L3 is in profit) and hopefully today it will reach the BE mark. Still increased the account 1.8% the past week so I was surprised I did that well taking two days off. 29 wins 17 losers. One loss I took was the usd/jpy which I closed accidentally for a loss. I didnt mean to close it but the lines jumped when I clicked on the usd/cad and ended up closing it instead. Well mistakes happen. Here is my graph for the week.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DetailedStatement.gif Size: 6 KB
  • #3,837
  • Jul 11, 2011 11:10pm Jul 11, 2011 11:10pm
Sometimes I wish I couldn't hedge.... I hedged my 2 chf pairs last monday at 1:1 ratio. Since then they have ranged beautifully...Oh well at least now I have a plan of attack to eliminate these trades. Wait for a run in either direction, then close the winner and open a counter trade at the cross of the 2ma on the daily recovery template. Before the 10.0 recovery came out, I would of been clutching at straws as to what to do.
  • #3,838
  • Jul 11, 2011 11:23pm Jul 11, 2011 11:23pm
Quoting Frodog
Sometimes I wish I couldn't hedge.... I hedged my 2 chf pairs last monday at 1:1 ratio. Since then they have ranged beautifully...Oh well at least now I have a plan of attack to eliminate these trades. Wait for a run in either direction, then close the winner and open a counter trade at the cross of the 2ma on the daily recovery template. Before the 10.0 recovery came out, I would of been clutching at straws as to what to do.
That is the hedge trade. Look for currencies that are in the middle of a daily chart. Do a buy and sell and wait for price to take off in either direction. When price crosses back on the daily close the profit trade and try to BE the loser. The closer to BE you get the bigger your profit will be. During any kind of run you neither win or lose but you can collect a nice profit if played right. I was working on a hedge strategy when they took it away from us.
  • #3,839
  • Jul 11, 2011 11:50pm Jul 11, 2011 11:50pm
Quoting nanningbob
That is the hedge trade. Look for currencies that are in the middle of a daily chart. Do a buy and sell and wait for price to take off in either direction. When price crosses back on the daily close the profit trade and try to BE the loser. The closer to BE you get the bigger your profit will be. During any kind of run you neither win or lose but you can collect a nice profit if played right. I was working on a hedge strategy when they took it away from us.
Would it not be the same thing (easier, less risky, less stress and less spread and rollover) if you simply started trading where you would have stopped the first trade? Then every tick in your direction is your pip. Not that I care too much about the spread.

I think hedging should be reserved for sorting out difficult cases rather than complicating the trade from the very begining.

Just trying to contribute to this thread that I have hitherto only been taking from.

King.
  • #3,840
  • Jul 12, 2011 1:16am Jul 12, 2011 1:16am
I wouldn't of normally hedged the chf crosses. I thought the chf was going to go on a run so I thought I would hedge before DD got to large, as I was currently at L2 with these trades. But it turns out the run didn't happen. Oh well...

Side note.. Just realized I can up my leverage from 100:1 to 500:1 This will save having larger then needed DD due to margin requirements. .01 standard lot goes from $10 margin to $2 margin requirement
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