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Higher low, lower high system

  • #4,421
  • Jun 23, 2011 10:20pm Jun 23, 2011 10:20pm
Quoting Vantage
I have made my first humble contribution to Ralph Shell's work! Hanging man here hoping looking for move back below 8 lwma. There is a major base at 0450.

A big London close bounce yesterday!
Forgot to mention that the hanging man (no follow through on 2 pos close candles) could be Asia just not wanting to push through session highs as is often the case. Until proved otherwise I'm looking at no follow through higher ie chances to sell, twt.
  • #4,422
  • Jun 24, 2011 12:23am Jun 24, 2011 12:23am
Quoting Vantage
We have had a natural progression of two things being:

 

  1. we have reduced trades from at one stage around 10 a day to a couple per day, and
  2. Mrs V has wanted us to focus on trend

We are making the 2nd real adjustment in 3 years (first was bringing 15 min in). The 1hr can move around a little whilst 4hr still showing trend. So we have changed definition of trend from 1hr.

The current set up I have then is 4hr, 15 min 5 min. Trend is described as above/below 4hr 8 lwma and 8 rsi confirming above/below its 8 sma (fozzy cross, I...

4 hrs as lead indicator makes an awful lot tf sense to me..4..15 and 5.. luv it.
  • #4,423
  • Jun 24, 2011 12:29am Jun 24, 2011 12:29am
Quoting danc
4 hrs as lead indicator makes an awful lot tf sense to me..4..15 and 5.. luv it.
There will of course be those times like this morning on gu where there is a 100% perfect gu sell set up by 1hr SS. Oh well we want to get a comparison between performance on 1hr and 4hr so sticking to 4hr rules.
  • #4,424
  • Jun 24, 2011 1:16am Jun 24, 2011 1:16am
Vantage, my RSI knowledge is very limited having only used it for divergence in the past but I was just wondering if it is looking a bit oversold at the moment (on GU that is) and if that would be a concern for you?
Follow, don't anticipate.
  • #4,425
  • Jun 24, 2011 1:31am Jun 24, 2011 1:31am
Quoting Ian
Vantage, my RSI knowledge is very limited having only used it for divergence in the past but I was just wondering if it is looking a bit oversold at the moment (on GU that is) and if that would be a concern for you?
Short term. It is oversold but have a look at last cross below 30 level 10 candles back, 6072, fell 130 odd pips. If we do get gu sell signal from here you'd take rsi level in mind also the simple fact that gu 4hr first signaled sell 200 pips higher, 6152. So if you take a trade after 4hr close in 30 mins the profit targets would be greatly different from a trade when first getting into the swing.

Medium/longer term from here twt. If we blast below Y's low, which are the lows from Feb-Mar this year, there are some big falls possible. That may also no doubt need price and rsi to wave up and down along the way.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #4,426
  • Jun 24, 2011 1:44am Jun 24, 2011 1:44am
Quoting Vantage
Short term. It is oversold but have a look at last cross below 30 level 10 candles back, 6072, fell 130 odd pips. If we do get gu sell signal from here you'd take rsi level in mind also the simple fact that gu 4hr first signaled sell 200 pips higher, 6152. So if you take a trade after 4hr close in 30 mins the profit targets would be greatly different from a trade when first getting into the swing.

Medium/longer term from here twt. If we blast below Y's low, which are the lows from Feb-Mar this year, there are some big falls possible. That...
Yes I see that now. I'll have a look back at previous RSI levels. Just need to get used to looking at it in this way.

Since last post GU 4 hr (still open candle obviously) now has large lower wick. If it closed like this but still below 8lwma and with rsi cross down, then still looking for shorts despite candle shape?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu_20110624-h4.gif Size: 11 KB
Follow, don't anticipate.
  • #4,427
  • Jun 24, 2011 1:53am Jun 24, 2011 1:53am
Quoting Ian
Yes I see that now. I'll have a look back at previous RSI levels. Just need to get used to looking at it in this way.

Since last post GU 4 hr (still open candle obviously) now has large lower wick. If it closed like this but still below 8lwma and with rsi cross down, then still looking for shorts despite candle shape?

Attachment
According to system yes. However we'd need to look at ma which has flattened out, a big lower wick hammer, put together suggests problems. So best answer would be prob look for better set ups elsewhere until clearer.

Eur for example is closing with a similar hammer and above its ma and rsi above.

If ma is say sharply angled down and we move up to touch it thats still sell area, but when ma flat and good reversal candle thats different.
  • #4,428
  • Jun 24, 2011 3:04am Jun 24, 2011 3:04am
Geez, I don't check this thread for a little bit and come back to see it flying along! Nice work V - looks like I have a lot of reading ahead this weekend. Gonna grab some beers and make a nice afternoon of it.
  • #4,429
  • Jun 24, 2011 3:31am Jun 24, 2011 3:31am
Quoting Auron112
Geez, I don't check this thread for a little bit and come back to see it flying along! Nice work V - looks like I have a lot of reading ahead this weekend. Gonna grab some beers and make a nice afternoon of it.
My friend I've seen your posts at psych levels thread and you have been going much, much better than me this week, congrats.
  • #4,430
  • Edited 12:34pm Jun 24, 2011 11:19am | Edited 12:34pm
long in direction of the h4 trend.
rsi on m5 diverging and rising above o/s zone and ma.
price retrace to 50% fib level of last upswing and 9800, forming a bullflag.

entry : 9804
exit : 9835 (near R1)
Attached Image
  • #4,431
  • Jun 27, 2011 4:11am Jun 27, 2011 4:11am
Vantage, I didn't take but wondered if you would have thought this a little aggressive.

4 hr still below 8lwma (just) so still looking for shorts. 15 min doji after higher volume push up (with upper wick) which couldn't break higher. 5 min lh with divergence at early Asia highs. Possibly the level wasn't that obvious as a good turning point with day's open/MS1/Friday's low just below.

Turned into a nice 30 pip trade down to POC/psych level combo.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Follow, don't anticipate.
  • #4,432
  • Jun 27, 2011 5:18am Jun 27, 2011 5:18am
Quoting Ian
Vantage, I didn't take but wondered if you would have thought this a little aggressive.

4 hr still below 8lwma (just) so still looking for shorts. 15 min doji after higher volume push up (with upper wick) which couldn't break higher. 5 min lh with divergence at early Asia highs. Possibly the level wasn't that obvious as a good turning point with day's open/MS1/Friday's low just below.

Turned into a nice 30 pip trade down to POC/psych level combo.

Attachment

Attachment
Thats fine 15 min evening star pattern back into trend and 5 min dble top. The 5925 low and also the lows back in May was too much resistance at the end of a big run down, 300 odd pips from 22 June.
  • #4,433
  • Jun 28, 2011 3:15am Jun 28, 2011 3:15am
I was romancing with the WE Pivot today. First trade closed for loss... but it was not really a system trade. Second looks like a system trade, closed on the WE Pivot for around +10 pips.

Nagative closes on 4H, 1H, 15M and 5M.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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"A goal without a plan is just a wish" - Antoine de Saint-Exupery
  • #4,434
  • Edited 2:07am Jun 29, 2011 2:00am | Edited 2:07am
Quoting Vantage
I have made my first humble contribution to Ralph Shell's work! Hanging man here hoping looking for move back below 8 lwma. There is a major base at 0450.

A big London close bounce yesterday!
Been reading with interest.. Ralph Shells stuff via the connection on yr blog.. adds another dimension.. layer..

Also chart attached to this post.. ddidnt fail quite as expected but went a little hier then failed .. giving lower hi ..4 hr..failure was also on 100 period and on 50%ish and Psych number.. Am watching..4 hr charts.. as we speak.. on EU..Cable Dragon and Aussie.. for possible similar setups..Notice current 4 hr Aussie..is in similar position as we speak .. if it fails will give dble toppy.. trend line even number.. 200emaabt 55% point and FoZZY clearly osold..Also somthing i watch that i find works quite well.. Fibo pivots.. weekly and monthly.. current Aussie is at 38% resistance area exact..if it does get throu here next 2 will be 50%1.6034.. and .618%..1.0650..
  • #4,435
  • Jun 30, 2011 6:06pm Jun 30, 2011 6:06pm
Raslph Shell blog today.. Very clear very understandable.. EUCHF.. long.. Aussie a sell..Good stuff
  • #4,436
  • Jun 30, 2011 11:00pm Jun 30, 2011 11:00pm
Vantage,

please see appended charts.

3 m15 red closes with little/no lower wicks.
LH with m5 solid close.

1. entry, following the hl_lh system, as shown.

2. if we draw a counter TL / bear flag, the entry would be below the low of the next bar OR if we follow the bpc routine, after 3-4 bars.

Question:
Should one wait for the TL break or is the LH entry independent and self-sufficient?

Thanks.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: 20110701-au-01b.gif Size: 35 KB
  • #4,437
  • Jul 4, 2011 5:18pm Jul 4, 2011 5:18pm
Cable and Euro well worth a look failing at JPY open.. 4 hr fozzy and maov avs on15/5 lead the way.. not quite or subjective L.H..sPhsic levels and day PPxs to perfection..10.17 am Aussie and i am finnished witha nice little bag..
  • #4,438
  • Jul 4, 2011 6:30pm Jul 4, 2011 6:30pm
Quoting danc
Cable and Euro well worth a look failing at JPY open.. 4 hr fozzy and maov avs on15/5 lead the way.. not quite or subjective L.H..sPhsic levels and day PPxs to perfection..10.17 am Aussie and i am finnished witha nice little bag..
I am short again .. cCable and EU.. clear lower tops now on hour and 15..
  • #4,439
  • Jul 4, 2011 6:40pm Jul 4, 2011 6:40pm
Closed both.. at or just above Physic levels.. 4 trades ths imorning.. 4 positive..come back for EU open see if i can get some more..On both Cable and EURO.. on 4 hr using Fozzy and 8 weighter..show clear down trends..All above trades using Vantage method and his tip re Physic. thread..which is just PURE magic..
  • #4,440
  • Jul 7, 2011 11:31pm Jul 7, 2011 11:31pm
Had a chance for a break with the US hol's and Y the int rate decisions. Forgot that this was NFP day, I could have extended the break.
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