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Silent Service Method

  • #12,601
  • Jul 2, 2011 11:05am Jul 2, 2011 11:05am
New post to the blog.
  • #12,602
  • Jul 2, 2011 11:08am Jul 2, 2011 11:08am
Quoting stewrigh
Yep nice pinbar but not all pb's work lol.

I've been hoping for a decent pullback to go short again tho.

And it's testosterone(picking tops and bottoms) that kills most newbie's.
I think there is a real shot at it running to 1.30 or 1.39 even. Of course, you are correct - it's a counter trend trade, but a move to 1.39 would just be a 61.8% retrace of the latest move, not the entire one. However, what I do know is that I won't be selling it at these levels anymore. Also, there is a monthly hammer on the USD/CHF and a shooting star on the USD/CAD. Interesting set ups.

I actually believe the USD/CAD shooting star the most out of all of them.....so much in fact that I went ahead and sold it.
  • #12,603
  • Jul 2, 2011 12:56pm Jul 2, 2011 12:56pm
Quoting clockwork71
I think there is a real shot at it running to 1.30 or 1.39 even. Of course, you are correct - it's a counter trend trade, but a move to 1.39 would just be a 61.8% retrace of the latest move, not the entire one. However, what I do know is that I won't be selling it at these levels anymore. Also, there is a monthly hammer on the USD/CHF and a shooting star on the USD/CAD. Interesting set ups.

I actually believe the USD/CAD shooting star the most out of all of them.....so much in fact that I went ahead and sold it.
Another one I like is the Aussie Yen and you get positive swap.
  • #12,604
  • Jul 2, 2011 11:18pm Jul 2, 2011 11:18pm
Quoting stewrigh
Another one I like is the Aussie Yen and you get positive swap.

Good catch, I don't normally follow that one, but it makes perfect sense. The attached chart shows that the 61.8% has given way as well....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #12,605
  • Jul 4, 2011 4:02am Jul 4, 2011 4:02am
Hi, first post. Really enjoyed reading through the material here and on your blog so many thanks Clockwork. The clear logic behind your writings really influenced me to sharpen up my own trading over the last few months. Its too easy to lose your common sense and over complicate this game.

Last week I got stopped out shorting the eurchf after jumping in moments before that big move up (SNB??). I’d eye-balled the weekly chart and thought it was looking well over-stretched but ignored my better judgement and got in anyway for another shot. If i’d known a little bit more about the fundamental side of things, i think it would’ve given me an extra reason to sit on my hands and wait it out. It seems like having a bit of knowledge on the wider economic factors at play adds a bit of colour to the technical stuff. Can you recommend any good reading sources?

Cheers, Ludwell
  • #12,606
  • Jul 4, 2011 4:14am Jul 4, 2011 4:14am
Anyone else been watching the usdczk?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #12,607
  • Jul 4, 2011 6:57am Jul 4, 2011 6:57am
Quoting ludwell
Hi, first post. Really enjoyed reading through the material here and on your blog so many thanks Clockwork. The clear logic behind your writings really influenced me to sharpen up my own trading over the last few months. Its too easy to lose your common sense and over complicate this game.

Last week I got stopped out shorting the eurchf after jumping in moments before that big move up (SNB??). I’d eye-balled the weekly chart and thought it was looking well over-stretched but ignored my better judgement and got in anyway for another shot. If i’d...
I tend to read Bloomberg, FT.com, and just kind of keep an eye on the stories here at FF. I try not to over complicate that either. Welcome, and thanks for your kind words!
  • #12,608
  • Jul 4, 2011 12:38pm Jul 4, 2011 12:38pm
Quoting ludwell
Hi, first post. Really enjoyed reading through the material here and on your blog so many thanks Clockwork. The clear logic behind your writings really influenced me to sharpen up my own trading over the last few months. Its too easy to lose your common sense and over complicate this game.

Last week I got stopped out shorting the eurchf after jumping in moments before that big move up (SNB??). I’d eye-balled the weekly chart and thought it was looking well over-stretched but ignored my better judgement and got in anyway for another shot. If i’d...
Can you recommend any good reading sources?

You could try dropping in here..

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=153569
  • #12,609
  • Jul 4, 2011 3:04pm Jul 4, 2011 3:04pm
Quoting stewrigh
Can you recommend any good reading sources?

You could try dropping in here..

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=153569
Yeah, actually - I used to go in there quite a bit. Jay has some good videos in there from time to time......I would recommend it actually. Don't know why I haven't been there in a while. Will have to start again.
  • #12,610
  • Jul 4, 2011 3:17pm Jul 4, 2011 3:17pm
Quoting clockwork71
Yeah, actually - I used to go in there quite a bit. Jay has some good videos in there from time to time......I would recommend it actually. Don't know why I haven't been there in a while. Will have to start again.
yes its Jays thread..BUT i gurantee it to you..that STEWRIGH..has psted the most..and i am a Sucker for all the NWO....that he posts about
enjoy them..you need to make time for them though

baz
  • #12,611
  • Jul 4, 2011 4:21pm Jul 4, 2011 4:21pm
Quoting stewrigh
Can you recommend any good reading sources?

You could try dropping in here..

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=153569
The only caveat I would add is for Chrissakes don't trade based on anything you see there - fundi's suck - just trade the charts - I post there cos I enjoy it and it relieves the boredom of trading.
  • #12,612
  • Jul 4, 2011 4:29pm Jul 4, 2011 4:29pm
Chris,

I know you are keen on the Loonie - Here's another promising chart - Trouble is I'm a CHF bull so I have a real dilemma with this.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #12,613
  • Jul 4, 2011 4:30pm Jul 4, 2011 4:30pm
Pound Vs Swissy anyone?

Looks good at 1.36500 --- won't bother saying which direction, it should be pretty obvious
  • #12,614
  • Jul 4, 2011 4:38pm Jul 4, 2011 4:38pm
Quoting VitaminBeer
Pound Vs Swissy anyone?

Looks good at 1.36500 --- won't bother saying which direction, it should be pretty obvious
  • #12,615
  • Jul 4, 2011 4:46pm Jul 4, 2011 4:46pm
Quoting ludwell
Hi, first post. Really enjoyed reading through the material here and on your blog so many thanks Clockwork. The clear logic behind your writings really influenced me to sharpen up my own trading over the last few months. Its too easy to lose your common sense and over complicate this game.

Last week I got stopped out shorting the eurchf after jumping in moments before that big move up (SNB??). I’d eye-balled the weekly chart and thought it was looking well over-stretched but ignored my better judgement and got in anyway for another shot. If i’d...
Ludwell,

I hesitate to give you advice because I don't know where you entered or what timeframe you were trading or risk tolerance equity etc etc but .. you really shouldn't have been stopped out.

2 observations - EU is likely to raise rates this week - if they don't Euro will drop - if they do it'll probly still drop unless they raise more than 25bp. Wait till after the decision.

SNB stopped intervening last year when they lost a packet last time they tried.

Anyway you might wanna consider getting back in - after the news tho.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #12,616
  • Jul 4, 2011 7:47pm Jul 4, 2011 7:47pm
Quoting stewrigh
Chris,

I know you are keen on the Loonie - Here's another promising chart - Trouble is I'm a CHF bull so I have a real dilemma with this.

Attachment

I think for a time, we are going to see Franc weakness. Remember, the entire world has been saved forever since we got the Greek bailout. Actually, the Swiss economy is starting to post weaker than expected numbers, and mainly because of the strength of the currency.

I know the GBP/CHF looks good to the downside, but I think that has more to do with the GBP than the CHF.......GBP/USD has a somewhat similar (not as good or clean though) set up as well.
  • #12,617
  • Jul 5, 2011 12:50pm Jul 5, 2011 12:50pm
Quoting clockwork71
I think for a time, we are going to see Franc weakness. Remember, the entire world has been saved forever since we got the Greek bailout. Actually, the Swiss economy is starting to post weaker than expected numbers, and mainly because of the strength of the currency.

I know the GBP/CHF looks good to the downside, but I think that has more to do with the GBP than the CHF.......GBP/USD has a somewhat similar (not as good or clean though) set up as well.
Chris,

You can probly guess I don't agree with you but the reasons I like the Swissie can be summarised thus.....

1. Per capita Switzerland has more gold than any other country.
2. SNB is the most respected bank in the world.
3. SNB stopped intervening in the markets a long time ago and even if they did that's just an opportunity to get a better price.
4. It's one of the few safe haven currencies left because they don't print money.
5. The head of the SNB is good, very good. And he recognises the value of a strong currency.
6. Would you really back the USD/GBP/EUR against the Swissie.
  • #12,618
  • Jul 5, 2011 2:52pm Jul 5, 2011 2:52pm
Well that's it for me for the week, with NFP around the corner I'll take a couple of days break

Good luck to you all

Cheers!
  • #12,619
  • Jul 5, 2011 6:50pm Jul 5, 2011 6:50pm
Quoting stewrigh
Chris,

You can probly guess I don't agree with you but the reasons I like the Swissie can be summarised thus.....

1. Per capita Switzerland has more gold than any other country.
2. SNB is the most respected bank in the world.
3. SNB stopped intervening in the markets a long time ago and even if they did that's just an opportunity to get a better price.
4. It's one of the few safe haven currencies left because they don't print money.
5. The head of the SNB is good, very good. And he recognises the value of a strong currency.
6. Would you really...

You misunderstand me, I am not saying I like selling the CHF, rather that I think there could be a great unwind starting. (Having said that, the GBP/CHF did drop pretty hard today.)

And as far as Hildebrand (head of SNB) is concerned, it is he who authorized the massive losses of billions of Francs in the marketplace during their interventions. By the way - they are still in those positions, and they said their plan is to "trade around those positions." In other words - they are in deep shit.

Members of Swiss Parliament just yesterday called him out - his time is limited I am afraid.
  • #12,620
  • Jul 5, 2011 6:51pm Jul 5, 2011 6:51pm
Quoting VitaminBeer
Well that's it for me for the week, with NFP around the corner I'll take a couple of days break

Good luck to you all

Cheers!
Take it easy B.....

Hope all is well!
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