GU, GJ and EU Analysis Thread

LOL - I dont know if you are ill, or just fed up with Viietnam - I wanted to go there just after it opened up, but headed west to the Caribbean instead....eitherway, I wish you well http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif

As for cable, I'm waiting to see if this morning's BOE Minutes inspired drop is a continuation of the current fall OR a shake-out...TWT

PS Your DSK piece was rather nice and the pic says it all.....ass

OK I got it. The post below the link! Wow. What cutting invective. You destroyed that guy.

Sorry I mean on the page that was linked, a submission just below took a shot at Dominique Strauss-Kahn.

I'm not jealous as I sit here listening to the din of a city so busy it has a problem with basic sanitation, whilst in my head I see crystal clear waters lapping the side of your yacht whilst the deck hands that you employ are asking if you would like more tonic... no I will not sexualize this comment, but have an image of what deck hands I would like to employ.... of course, the wife would be in attendance in order to ensure no impropriety occurred.

Filled last night, looks like a bout of dollar strength is on the cards.

I'd be wrong back above 1.4350 at this stage imho.

Last nights close wasn't extremely strong so will be watching the London open for clues as to intention of the price action.

i think this is my post here...

hello everyone this is MIZA

i got a currently great analysis just now for GBP$

prev.post
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...55#post4644955

sincere,

hi smikester,
if that wedge break down ,would 1.5350 be first support?
thank you

If it were to break the lower trend line, then after 1.6 the technical target of the head and shoulders formation is around 1.53 and, as you rightly point out, there is also support around there at 1.5350.

I think the government and the BOE would like to see this go even lower to curb imports, stimulate exports and bring in investment.

thank you sir
good trading

Hey! where is everyone? have we all retired like sinner?
Stocky Monky... where are ya? I always look up to your analysis and it has improved my understanding of the marketrs. Been away for sometime to work on my trading as well as attend to my day job.
hope to see you guys posting soon.

At the mo, I am bullish on EU & GU. hoping to catch some good trades this week and will post charts later.

regards.

I wish! I think everyone is having a rest or maybe even having fun? But I do miss this thread.

hi smikester,

could you please check cable update 283818 post,
and please read silver chart?
if it is not wrong what does last days' high volume mean?
thanks

Hi riko, I did reply to the cable update post but I don't trade silver, and neither am I familiar with the volume indicator you are using.

well, not a good week for my bullish positions... had to cut the losses where necessarry.
Lets see what this week will bring after ther nfp.

thank you..
good trading..

GBP/JPY is interesting at the moment. Three times 122.60 was rejected - an established level. It is also the 38.2 retracement of the November fall. Although I'm bullish longer term, I'm now looking at the recent tussle with 122.10, a 61.8 retracement.

Just posting this because sinner- would have liked it...

EUR/USD Analysis 22/01/13

Been a while since I posted last thought I would throw some of my views into the mix. Mixture of long term, mid term and intraday thoughts.
Chart Comments Below: (Monthly, Weekly, Daily and 4hr)

Monthly

The monthly chart shows the Eur/Usd range extremes. We have range lows (Support) at 1.20 and resistance at 1.51. We can see price held at its last test of 1.20 area and has since broken out of its down trend. This is confirmed by the trendline break visible on the chart above. Technically I would expect EU to begin its journey towards 1.51 area of the mid to long term.

Weekly

We can see from weekly chart in more detail the trendline break mentioned. Price is making steady higher highs/ higher lows and is adhering to a new trendline marked by the purple arrows above. I would be looking to buy at trendline support marked by the green arrow. We are currently be held by weekly/daily resistance at 1.34 / 1.3490. This is also being backed up by the daily 200ma which will make this area tough to get through.

Daily

Given the daily chart and 4 hour chart are showing negative divergence I would be more inclined to think we will see price sell off from this resistance area towards the diagonal trendline 131.50/ 1.32 marked by the green arrow. This would also keep in line with the current pattern we are following i.e. strong upmove - > Consolidation-> pull back to Trendline _> Strong Upmove…….and so on.

4Hr Chart

Given we have just had much better than expected German Zew figures this morning price seems to have slowed down after a 100pip upmove. I will be looking to short 1.34 if we get there with a tight stop. Alternatively I will be looking for long position from the diagonal trendline marked by the orange box. Again Negative Divergence much stronger on the 4hr.

Cable Analysis (Gbp/Usd) 10/01/12

This Analysis was done on the 10th so a little delayed. It contains longer term views and price levels so will still be valid.

Monthly

The above monthly chart of GU shows the long term price action of this currency major since the Lehman brother collapse. The rapid decline we seen in Sterling between 1st Aug 2008 and 1st Jan 2009 saw GU reach 1.34 which has remained as its extreme low. Price has then formed a few long term distributions highlight by the red lines. We are currently trading in a price trap and will sooner or later see a break either to the upside or the downside. Whichever way it is this could potentially result in the next big move for this currency pair i.e 1000-2000+ pips given the width of the price trap base. This is a monthly chart and therefore we may not see this develop until 3rd or 4th quarter 2013. However a close eye on the highlighted support and resistance levels is key if price gets anywhere near there.

Weekly

The above chart shows the different longterm ranges and distributions which have formed since Aug’08. The key thing here is we have been unable break 1.6747 since Aug 2008 and have formed long term ranges between 1.647- 1.58 and 1.62 -1.52. Although the bigger picture is based on price breaking out of the longer term pricetrap (highlighted in Green) either to the up or downside there is still 1000 pip range between 1.62 -1.52 which we are currently trading in. We have recently bounced of resistance at 1.62 and the weekly RSI is showing negative divergence. This indicates a down move is on the cards and given we have formed a shorterm price trap (highlighted in blue) a break out to the downside will see price trading to 156 and then possible 1.52 range support. Possible target areas area indicated by the red arrows depending on which way we breakout. Trading to 1.52 would indicate a break of the longer term price trap support however. Intraday longs of diagonal support 156 area would be viable trades also.

Daily

Strong negative divergence on the daily chart. We have seen price drop 200 pips to diagonal support since we tested 1.6280 however given the negative divergence we are getting on the weekly chart this leaves me thinking we will break lower from here and attempt a test of the daily 200ma at 1.5879 then price trap support around 1.5720-1.56 and then possibly weekly range support at 1.5277.
A strong reversal sign here at diagonal support could see us trading back to resistance at 1.6280 therefore a confirmation of a daily break would be advised before initiating shorts. Until then intraday trade longs until 4hr higher highs and lows are broken.

4Hr

HH and HL sequence has been broken and I would now like to see a continuation in lower highs and lower lows forming on the 4 hour chart. This would give good reason to see an attempt of breaking support around 1.60. Again negative divergence visible on weekly, daily and 4 hour charts now.