Gartley Patterns w/ Hurst Exponent

1.) Can anyone describe the Hurst Exponent in more lamens terms and in relation to the forex market?

2.) Does anyone utilize the hurst exponent as a confirming trigger when entering a reversal on a gartley pattern?

3.) Other than price action (and risk/reward) does anyone have any tips on figuring out if the patterns are valid in real time?

Is this a gartley pattern?

http://i36.tinypic.com/1zbwacp.jpg[/IMG]

The Hurst exponent is a very elegant and extremely useful indicator especially when used in conjunction with harmonic patterns. Edgar peters writes extensively on this subject in his book "Chaos and order in the capital markets". I highly recommend you read that book to get a basic understanding of what it is and how it can be used. That being said I use it and have taught it to hundreds of my students and the method I use is very simple. Harmonic patterns are reversal patterns, the Hurst measures persistence and anti-persistence. Those are mathematical terms that for trading purposes mean simply: persistence = trend continues, anti persistence means the trend is not likely to continue much longer. Persistence is from .5-1 and anti-persistence is from .0-.5. So when a pattern emerges you simply check to see if you have a low Hurst reading, the greater the Hurst reading the more likely the reversal will come in the near future. It is somewhat like a confidence indicator. As I said I do teach a complete method that utilizes these principles and I am not trying to be self serving here but if you do want more info on it let me know.

here is a link for fractal dimension index : http://codebase.mql4.com/5525

Beware if you subscribe to this site. It will spam you with automated messages and don't give you option to unsubscribe. While harmonics is a decent methodology, the dishonest marketing and lies are appalling. I have replied to everyone of these messages asking to unsubscribe, and still I received a new email with "haven't heard from you ....", obviously automated. Google and search for ZUP v93 (or earlier), read Scott M Carney's latest two books, attend Derek Frey's free webinars at FXStreet, and skip this FXGW site.

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Hello XXX,

Just thought i'd write to see if you were interested, but i was going to hand out a promotion code to the guy who registered last (which happened to be you) as we had a big promotion at the money show in Boston this past weekend and had just a couple codes left over that knocks down the price from $349/month to just $149/month (about 70% off the price off our website) for the life of the membership.... the only catch of course is once you cancel you'll never, ever be able to get this price back again...

Anyways I didn't know if you wanted it or if I should ask the next person? I can't include the promotion code in the email because its unique, but if you could let me know that you would like to use it, that would be great!

All the best!
Sam
ps. To give you an idea, here is where were at for the last 3 months since we started having all the trades verified by a third party just to show people what they are missing out on Look at all those suckers that have lost over 30% in the last 3 months... CRAZY!
(see attached screenshot)
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Hello XXX,

I just wanted to follow up with you to see how things are going and make sure you got my last email? Typically I tell people if they don't know about harmonics, that they might want to look into it and decide for themselves (which you really should do), but with results like we've gotten this whole year its hard to turn away from a methodology like this..

Just to give you an idea, yesterday Chris traded the usd/chf and with the high probability of these patterns, we banked around 140 pips.

Chris is rather funny, cause he'll be the first person to tell you that I have NO idea which way the market is going, or will go next... and its true! HOWEVER, what he does know is how to see when there is opportunity in the market and when there isn't. Putting yourself into a trade is very much like putting yourself in a room with a nuclear reactor and calculating probability is a must. The market is always open, and so are the casinos, and there is a time to 'play' and a time to stand on the sidelines and he would love to show you how harmonics can help you within just a few seconds give you a probability/percentage.

Anyways, get back to me because I need to know if you want to use the promotion code I have for you, or if I should give it to someone else...

All the best!
Sam
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Hello XXX,

Not sure if your around, or perhaps on holidays? Anyways just really need to get a hold of you about the coupon code or we might have to pass it onto someone else... but would hate for you to miss this chance.

Anyways here's today's morning webinar trade... captured about 60 pips in a trade we held for about an hour. Our target was the yellow circle, but as you can see we went past that (although the yellow circle is where we took our 60 pips and ran)... Did you get that one this morning?

Anyways, today's morning webinar trade we captured about 60 pips in which held for about an hour.

I need to hear from you about this promotion code and if you want it...

Take care!
Sam
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Hello XXX,

I've been trying to get a hold of you because you had been picked for this promotional code we had and have not heard back from you. Remember I need to hear from you to generate the code as its going to be specific just for you!

Just a reminder, the promotion code was a reduction in price from 349/month to 149/month to be mentored and coached trading these harmonic patterns. This promotion is very limited.

To give you an idea, in the last year Chris has:
Secured over 61.44% as his yearly gained (third party verified by FXCM)
Has taken over 12,800 pips last year
Has one multiple trading competitions
Has taught many people how to do exactly what he does!

Anyways, the next couple days would be a great time would be a great time for you to go through all the training videos to get ready for the next webinar, Chris goes over the pattern selection process with you guys and picks a few to trade from...

I need to hear from you about this promotion code and if you want it...

Take care!
Sam
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The hurst exponent is a fractal based measurement of a time series, as described above: <.5 => anti-persistent, .5=random, >.5- => persistent. That being said, like most other indicators, it is only a measurement based upon a current window/sample of evidence. To say that >.5=> persistence beyond the right edge can be specious.

To think of it in more laymen terms, if you look at a chart on a daily time frame and it is rising with low volatility, does that imply that the same behavior will occur on the next equal sized window? Obviously, a more detailed study would be required to make that assertion. I don't think it's as simple as saying a H value of .3 implies that the next sequence of values will be choppy, so switch from trending to mean reversion, etc.. Regime type measurements can be quite noisy, depending on the metric.

If anyone has done a reasonable study on a particular instrument/time frame or knows of one; please post it.

In fact, I'll show one counter evidence for starters.

"According to the results drawn: (i) the Hurst exponent displays an erratic dynamics with some episodes alternating low and high persistent behavior, (ii) the major breakthrough of the long-term trend of the scaling behavior occurred in 1972, at the end of the Bretton Woods system, when the Hurst exponent shifted form a positive to a negative long-term trend."

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science...78437108005888

Here's a visual application, which would sort of corroborate the above (i.e. next to meaningless beyond present description).
http://www.forex-tsd.com/blogs/newdi...-exponent.html

Lastly, there's an interesting discussion along the same lines here,
http://fxtrade.oanda.com/community/f...;f=16;t=004704

Manual trading strategy based on Hurst Exponent Indicator
http://forex-profit-systems.com/?p=59

Hey guys I trade mainly harmonics if you want to follow them

www.forex4rookies.com