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Order Flow - Achieving the mindset

  • #2,241
  • Jul 1, 2011 5:40am Jul 1, 2011 5:40am
http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2011/0...itechs-fans-3/

Citi reestablishes short on E/Chf
  • #2,242
  • Jul 1, 2011 5:40am Jul 1, 2011 5:40am
Quoting xXTrizzleXx

I may be a bit off in my logic, but I always thought it could either be a situation where participants positioned on the wrong side of the market would begin to liquidate for a small loss, before it takes off with them again on the bounce. Depending on what's going on, the S->R may be also perceived as a bargain price, and so might also be flooded with liquidity, making it difficult to traverse.

Regards,
xXTrizzleXx
I think so too. On smaller timeframes these are dealers liquidating inventories, on bigger it's traders with paper loss.
  • #2,243
  • Jul 1, 2011 5:45am Jul 1, 2011 5:45am
Quoting EmeraldEyes
http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2011/0...itechs-fans-3/

Citi reestablishes short on E/Chf
im long for 2425 lol. I remeber a play they put out on eur/usd and immediatly it took them and any of there followers out.
  • #2,244
  • Jul 1, 2011 6:06am Jul 1, 2011 6:06am
Quoting Monroe
that seems like a good choice, but lets see how it looks when it's game time. I was thinking of messing with USD/JPY or USD/CHF as they both cranked yesterday on US data
Indeed..but I can't help but think that it will show some elements of buy the rumor, sell the fact (BTRSTF from now on) seeing as yesterday's Chicago and KC PMI would have really raised the expectations bar.

Quoting Monroe
im long for 2425 lol. I remeber a play they put out on eur/usd and immediatly it took them and any of there followers out.
LOL they put one out for Cable with their stop at 1.63...ever since then Cable has been slowly rising..hax?

Quoting seagreen
I think so too. On smaller timeframes these are dealers liquidating inventories, on bigger it's traders with paper loss.


Regards,
xXTrizzleXx
  • #2,245
  • Jul 1, 2011 6:09am Jul 1, 2011 6:09am
Quote
Indeed..but I can't help but think that it will show some elements of buy the rumor, sell the fact (BTRSTF from now on) seeing as yesterday's Chicago and KC PMI would have really raised the expectations bar.
Hell yeah I was reading on this ahead of time. Everything I found was bullish on it.
Cautiously optimistic. . .
  • #2,246
  • Jul 1, 2011 6:22am Jul 1, 2011 6:22am
so I think we have a play then... unless it's really strong it may just be a BTRSTF
  • #2,247
  • Jul 1, 2011 6:29am Jul 1, 2011 6:29am
Quoting Tact1cal
Hell yeah I was reading on this ahead of time. Everything I found was bullish on it.
Nice eye man!

Quoting Monroe
so I think we have a play then... unless it's really strong it may just be a BTRSTF
Indeed I think we do..strong for me would be a print of 58+..anything else then I'm looking at it as just that.

Regards,
xXTrizzleXx
  • #2,248
  • Jul 1, 2011 6:56am Jul 1, 2011 6:56am
Quoting Monroe
im long for 2425 lol. I remeber a play they put out on eur/usd and immediatly it took them and any of there followers out.
Haha gotcha. So who would benefit bc of Citi's strategy being known? Would those levels just be of importance the first time one is reached?
  • #2,249
  • Jul 1, 2011 7:01am Jul 1, 2011 7:01am
Quoting xXTrizzleXx
Nice eye man!

Regards,
xXTrizzleXx
I am a wee bit confused here. Going by BTRSTF we are looking for weaker numbers for ppl holding to the bullish trades to bail out? Or we looking for a rather stronger number?
  • #2,250
  • Jul 1, 2011 7:07am Jul 1, 2011 7:07am
Quote
I am a wee bit confused here. Going by BTRSTF we are looking for weaker numbers for ppl holding to the bullish trades to bail out? Or we looking for a rather stronger number?
Here's how I see it, I'm not playing it personally but my positions will get cut if things don't go as expected.. If it is BTRSTF I don't think it will be anything big if numbers come out as expected. My reasoning is that most of the demand is coming from investors. This is not something they will close positions on. IF the numbers come out bad. This might affect investor risk appetite. I will close the positions. If they come out better than expected investor risk appetite might increase.

g2g to work I'm late!
Cautiously optimistic. . .
  • #2,251
  • Jul 1, 2011 8:18am Jul 1, 2011 8:18am
Initially, I interpreted it on USD/CHF, in that based on my grasp of things participants may have already factored in their high expectations into the price. Consequently, when the number comes out to higher than the consensus, it isn't going to affect price all that much, and participants may just as well close their positions as their expectations were met, leading to bearish pressure in USD/CHF.

Looking at things from the point of view of Tact1cal, and obtaining some more info, I've decided to play the same move, but bullishly on EUR/USD. It may even give an excuse to trip stops to the upside as risk appetite is encouraged. Just gotta figure out how to structure this bad boy.

If the numbers do come out weaker than expected, I haven't given enough thought to that scenario so will sit out.

Regards,
xXTrizzleXx
  • #2,252
  • Jul 1, 2011 8:51am Jul 1, 2011 8:51am
Quoting xXTrizzleXx
Initially, I interpreted it on USD/CHF, in that based on my grasp of things participants may have already factored in their high expectations into the price. Consequently, when the number comes out to higher than the consensus, it isn't going to affect price all that much, and participants may just as well close their positions as their expectations were met, leading to bearish pressure in USD/CHF.

Looking at things from the point of view of Tact1cal, and obtaining some more info, I've decided to play the same move, but bullishly on EUR/USD....

same here, it looks like a fake move right now to hit the stops under the 4450 options again before the news and it might turn fast... stops above the highs can propel us to the barrier stops they didn't quite get at the 4555 for more pre-weekend liquidation??

stops on UJ up top at 80.20/30/70... so 80.30 might be a good fade...

if i see them going for the stops before the news, I think the news might not be all that market moving of a surprise.
  • #2,253
  • Jul 1, 2011 8:54am Jul 1, 2011 8:54am
Quoting Monroe
same here, it looks like a fake move right now to hit the stops under the 4450 options again before the news and it might turn fast... stops above the highs can propel us to the barrier stops they didn't quite get at the 4555...

stops on UJ up top at 80.20/30/70... so 80.30 might be a good fade...
Also stops at 4440 and 4410 were earlier reported although I don't think we'll make it through to 4410.
  • #2,254
  • Jul 1, 2011 8:58am Jul 1, 2011 8:58am
Quoting seagreen
Also stops at 4440 and 4410 were earlier reported although I don't think we'll make it through to 4410.
yea the 4440 stops would be for the options at 4450 and asian lows.. so 45-40 area, still keeping the range up here for now
  • #2,255
  • Jul 1, 2011 9:19am Jul 1, 2011 9:19am
Well, I went along with the hunters. Took a short from 4467 into the stop. Price rebounded nicely after the hunt.
  • #2,256
  • Jul 1, 2011 9:31am Jul 1, 2011 9:31am
Quoting vicky_ag
Well, I went along with the hunters. Took a short from 4467 into the stop. Price rebounded nicely after the hunt.
Nice play!

Figured it would have good upside potential so I played it the other way..gotta love have OF traders liquidate into each other . Monroe, seagreen, you think we'll make it to the topside stops? I took half risk off at 1:1 just in case we dont..but I think we have potential too...no more news on the horizon.

Regards,
xXTrizzleXx
  • #2,257
  • Jul 1, 2011 9:34am Jul 1, 2011 9:34am
Quoting xXTrizzleXx
Nice play!

Figured it would have good upside potential so I played it the other way..gotta love have OF traders liquidate into each other . Monroe, seagreen, you think we'll make it to the topside stops? I took half risk off at 1:1 just in case we dont..but I think we have potential too...no more news on the horizon.

Regards,
xXTrizzleXx
Yeah rather than stealing liqudity from each other
  • #2,258
  • Jul 1, 2011 9:36am Jul 1, 2011 9:36am
Quoting xXTrizzleXx
Nice play!

Figured it would have good upside potential so I played it the other way..gotta love have OF traders liquidate into each other . Monroe, seagreen, you think we'll make it to the topside stops? I took half risk off at 1:1 just in case we dont..but I think we have potential too...no more news on the horizon.

Regards,
xXTrizzleXx
damn.... shit is lookin' sweet, i'll leave it on till PA tells me otherwise. I only went half normal position size cause it's friday and I dont feel like crying for 2 days straight in my room this weekend...

but right now it's makin' a B line for it... sweet as peppers...
  • #2,259
  • Jul 1, 2011 9:42am Jul 1, 2011 9:42am
Quoting Monroe
damn.... shit is lookin' sweet, i'll leave it on till PA tells me otherwise. I only went half normal position size cause it's friday and I dont feel like crying for 2 days straight in my room this weekend...

but right now it's makin' a B line for for it... sweet as peppers...
LOL We might even get a gap-up this weekend..depending on how nice my lunch tastes I may just decide to let it run until Thursday..now I have no more margin so it's sit back and relax...

Regards,
xXTrizzleXx
  • #2,260
  • Jul 1, 2011 9:44am Jul 1, 2011 9:44am
Quoting xXTrizzleXx
Nice play!

Figured it would have good upside potential so I played it the other way..gotta love have OF traders liquidate into each other . Monroe, seagreen, you think we'll make it to the topside stops? I took half risk off at 1:1 just in case we dont..but I think we have potential too...no more news on the horizon.

Regards,
xXTrizzleXx
I'd say yes, there should be some decent liquidity at 4560 and it's just asking the price to go there.

Good luck with it! I'm on the sideline...
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