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Order Flow - Achieving the mindset

  • #2,221
  • Jun 30, 2011 9:28am Jun 30, 2011 9:28am
Quoting xXTrizzleXx
Sounds good to me! If things don't get too overextended Asian Session looks ripe for some EUR picking...hope I'll be home in time. You think this risk appetite will linger?

Regards,
xXTrizzleXx
I can't say for sure, but I do think they were heavily overextended and due for a nasty reversal at some point.... it may be upon us! the surprising chicago PMI with greek debt almost in the clear.. sounds pretty risk on to me. New half and new month next week... it's kind of all clicking with the timing... when was the last full moon? lol
  • #2,222
  • Jun 30, 2011 11:05am Jun 30, 2011 11:05am
Quoting xXTrizzleXx
As a side note, do any of you tend to hold swing/position trades? I'm running into the awful problem of not having enough margin to make these little plays that can top up the balance nicely...and I don't want to close out any of my other positions as yet..How do you guys cope? I've lowered my risk to 1%-1.5% but still nothing EmeraldEyes?

Regards,
xXTrizzleXx
I thought thats how you were doing this I make periodical deposits for margin's sake. My risk is only like .1% a trade though.

Quoting xXTrizzleXx
Beautiful short covering going on in EUR/CHF...very nicely done...looks like it was a CHF related move.
Damn MT4 Order flow EA wasn't suppost to cover all my swissy at the same time. Sorry for the spike guys
  • #2,223
  • Jun 30, 2011 11:09am Jun 30, 2011 11:09am
wow.

http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2011/0...ers-out-there/
  • #2,224
  • Jun 30, 2011 2:02pm Jun 30, 2011 2:02pm
Quoting EmeraldEyes
wow.

http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2011/0...ers-out-there/
Yeah, I'm helping those hedgers.
  • #2,225
  • Jun 30, 2011 2:57pm Jun 30, 2011 2:57pm
any thoughts on u/j 80.90? I'm in around 80.50
  • #2,226
  • Jun 30, 2011 5:56pm Jun 30, 2011 5:56pm
Quoting seagreen
Yeah, I'm helping those hedgers.
Same here, probably going to fade 1.3550 and 1.3510 back to 1.3530 since 1.3520 and 1.3540 have already been faded once.

I looked up a billion dollar expiry on the usd/chf a few months ago. 3/30/11
The strike was 92.00 it hovered in the area until about a half hour before the 10am cut and took off about 50 pips. I'm thinking I should keep that in mind. We'll see what happens.
  • #2,227
  • Jun 30, 2011 7:06pm Jun 30, 2011 7:06pm
Quoting Nervousone
Same here, probably going to fade 1.3550 and 1.3510 back to 1.3530 since 1.3520 and 1.3540 have already been faded once.

I looked up a billion dollar expiry on the usd/chf a few months ago. 3/30/11
The strike was 92.00 it hovered in the area until about a half hour before the 10am cut and took off about 50 pips. I'm thinking I should keep that in mind. We'll see what happens.
Why not fade the same levels again? The market doesn't care if you've done them before.

I remember that usdchf option, i think i faded that spike.
  • #2,228
  • Jun 30, 2011 9:01pm Jun 30, 2011 9:01pm
Quoting seagreen
Why not fade the same levels again? The market doesn't care if you've done them before.

I remember that usdchf option, i think i faded that spike.
Contrary to some I think the more times a resistance point is touched the weaker it is.
  • #2,229
  • Jun 30, 2011 9:36pm Jun 30, 2011 9:36pm
Quoting seagreen
Why not fade the same levels again? The market doesn't care if you've done them before.

I remember that usdchf option, i think i faded that spike.
My apologise if this sounds stupid, what do you mean by faded?
  • #2,230
  • Jun 30, 2011 10:05pm Jun 30, 2011 10:05pm
Quoting Nervousone
Contrary to some I think the more times a resistance point is touched the weaker it is.
Well, the question is twofold. It's better to think about it in terms of liquidity and order flow. If you remember Darkstar's liquidity diagram it shows a liquidity gap after a price move. This gap then gets filled with new liquidity. But imagine a situation when the price is contained in a range. The order flow consumes liquidity within this range and thus the liquidity within the range is thinner than outside of the range. So the dense liquidity outside the range is an obstacle for the price and we need a more aggressive order flow to get through. Now often we have stops outside of the range that will attract more aggressive order flow. So basically after the price touches some level and comes back that level becomes a point where thicker liquidity begins (stronger resistance) but it also becomes an attraction point for stronger order flow (weaker resistance).

Anyway, I just enter limit orders 10 pips apart.
  • #2,231
  • Jun 30, 2011 10:07pm Jun 30, 2011 10:07pm
Quoting zfm
My apologise if this sounds stupid, what do you mean by faded?
Fade = enter against the direction of the price
  • #2,232
  • Jun 30, 2011 10:10pm Jun 30, 2011 10:10pm
Quoting seagreen
Fade = enter against the direction of the price
Thank you so much for the help!
  • #2,233
  • Edited 11:04pm Jun 30, 2011 10:47pm | Edited 11:04pm
Quoting seagreen
Well, the question is twofold. It's better to think about it in terms of liquidity and order flow. If you remember Darkstar's liquidity diagram it shows a liquidity gap after a price move. This gap then gets filled with new liquidity. But imagine a situation when the price is contained in a range. The order flow consumes liquidity within this range and thus the liquidity within the range is thinner than outside of the range. So the dense liquidity outside the range is an obstacle for the price and we need a more aggressive order flow to get through. Now often we have stops outside of the range that will attract more aggressive order flow. So basically after the price touches some level and comes back that level becomes a point where thicker liquidity begins (stronger resistance) but it also becomes an attraction point for stronger order flow (weaker resistance).

Very cool post man I like it. Trading just makes so much more sense thinking the order flow way.

The market loves liquidity how do we best play/predict this break.

Anyone want to take a stab at explaining support turning into resistance and resistance turning to support the order flow way?
  • #2,234
  • Jul 1, 2011 12:45am Jul 1, 2011 12:45am
Quoting seagreen
Well, the question is twofold. It's better to think about it in terms of liquidity and order flow. If you remember Darkstar's liquidity diagram it shows a liquidity gap after a price move. This gap then gets filled with new liquidity. But imagine a situation when the price is contained in a range. The order flow consumes liquidity within this range and thus the liquidity within the range is thinner than outside of the range. So the dense liquidity outside the range is an obstacle for the price and we need a more aggressive order flow to get through....
A real money post here.

Thanks for sharing here on the forum!

Good trading to you.
  • #2,235
  • Jul 1, 2011 1:43am Jul 1, 2011 1:43am
Just posting some thought for others to comment on.

FXLive says there is barrier option interest at 4550. There are sell stops between 4440 and 4410. My first reaction is those stops are out of play for today, we would need a 110 plus pip move to get to them, on a Friday.

So that leaves the 4550 level. I'm still green when it comes to options, but I am assuming that whoever sold that options is fighting to keep price away (as it appears on the chart to me right now). I am aslo assuming that whoever bought that option is trying to move price through it into barrier defense stops that might be sitting behind?

FYI I'm not trading this, just watching and trying to learn something

Looks like price touched 4550 as I was typing this out. Interested to see what happens next.
  • #2,236
  • Edited 3:11am Jul 1, 2011 2:53am | Edited 3:11am
Quoting Jimmy Jones
Just posting some thought for others to comment on.

FXLive says there is barrier option interest at 4550. There are sell stops between 4440 and 4410. My first reaction is those stops are out of play for today, we would need a 110 plus pip move to get to them, on a Friday.

I agree. This is too far out and costs too much money to run at the barrier.

So that leaves the 4550 level. I'm still green when it comes to options, but I am assuming that whoever sold that options is fighting to keep price away (as it appears on the chart to me right now)....
Read the FX Live Q&A section they give a great explaination on barriers.

IFR was reporting these stop levels yesterday with the only one in the way which was the 1.4540 light stops. If you recall Dark Star talks about the play for the barriers starts roughly 50 pips out roughly, somewhere in the thread he goes over this. I didn't see any news of large stops on the other side of the barrier so did not expect spike much past the 4550. I admit not the best setup but entered at 1.4470 and into the barrier. I expect if there is a sell off that the lower level of stops the 4440-10 would come into play. Not much stop info coming into the weekend so I suspect lots of stop hunts to be the mix of the weekend.
I don't see much euro negative for the time being since the next thing on the plate is the US debt ceiling until the last minute for there vote, but like everything political we will probably vote it through and if the market starts going dollar strong that is what the traders are banking on.
Happy 4th to the people of the states and everyone else, Have a beer or whatever u drink on us.
Louie
  • #2,237
  • Jul 1, 2011 4:28am Jul 1, 2011 4:28am
Quoting EmeraldEyes
I thought thats how you were doing this I make periodical deposits for margin's sake. My risk is only like .1% a trade though.

Damn MT4 Order flow EA wasn't suppost to cover all my swissy at the same time. Sorry for the spike guys
I see..don't want to have to scale back even further past 1%-1.5%, but if push comes to shove then I guess it must be done. Apology accepted, but not to the many people who you may have given margin calls, you naughty man.

Quoting Monroe
I can't say for sure, but I do think they were heavily overextended and due for a nasty reversal at some point.... it may be upon us! the surprising chicago PMI with greek debt almost in the clear.. sounds pretty risk on to me. New half and new month next week... it's kind of all clicking with the timing... when was the last full moon? lol
Lol! Yep, timing is everything. Funnily enough I had a dream that the ECB rate hike may turn out like the last ECB press conference. We didn't take that trade, but maybe we've manned up since then to try to short this one? I'm getting very bad vibes so might liquidate a good few EUR longs. Maybe leave the furthest one or two behind. Are you trading ISM today?

Quoting Nervousone
Very cool post man I like it. Trading just makes so much more sense thinking the order flow way.

The market loves liquidity how do we best play/predict this break.

Anyone want to take a stab at explaining support turning into resistance and resistance turning to support the order flow way?
I may be a bit off in my logic, but I always thought it could either be a situation where participants positioned on the wrong side of the market would begin to liquidate for a small loss, before it takes off with them again on the bounce. Depending on what's going on, the S->R may be also perceived as a bargain price, and so might also be flooded with liquidity, making it difficult to traverse.

Regards,
xXTrizzleXx
  • #2,238
  • Jul 1, 2011 5:25am Jul 1, 2011 5:25am
Quoting xXTrizzleXx
Lol! Yep, timing is everything. Funnily enough I had a dream that the ECB rate hike may turn out like the last ECB press conference. We didn't take that trade, but maybe we've manned up since then to try to short this one? I'm getting very bad vibes so might liquidate a good few EUR longs. Maybe leave the furthest one or two behind. Are you trading ISM today?
Ahh.. well, I think you may be right... lets see how it shapes up leading up to the conference, I'm feeling a little off right now and think you may be right here, I think we may see some profit taking once again.

I may be down for a quick one on the ISM later, you playing it?
  • #2,239
  • Jul 1, 2011 5:29am Jul 1, 2011 5:29am
Quoting Monroe
Ahh.. well, I think you may be right... lets see how it shapes up leading up to the conference, I'm feeling a little off right now and think you may be right here, I think we may see some profit taking once again.

I may be down for the ISM later you playing it?
Yeah I wanted to play it but can't seem to make up my mind for a good pair to choose..I was thinking maybe USD/CHF..will see which is looking juiciest ahead of it.

Regards,
xXTrizzleXx
  • #2,240
  • Jul 1, 2011 5:38am Jul 1, 2011 5:38am
Quoting xXTrizzleXx
Yeah I wanted to play it but can't seem to make up my mind for a good pair to choose..I was thinking maybe USD/CHF..will see which is looking juiciest ahead of it.

Regards,
xXTrizzleXx
that seems like a good choice, but lets see how it looks when it's game time. I was thinking of messing with USD/JPY or USD/CHF as they both cranked yesterday on US data
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