Technical Analysis Fallacy

wondering what are they up to there in Greece.........

Dear FTI,

My condolences on the demise of your cousin.

Please accept my condolences.
Take easy.
Luis

My condolence too sifu. Wish u the best. take good care

fti, so sorry about your cousin. My condolences.

I am probably a bit late but I'm sorry to hear about your cousin Fti.

Please be careful while your traveling about.

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--China's deep pockets are momentarily keeping the euro supported.
But with Greece's financial future still uncertain even after lawmakers passed an austerity package on Wednesday, and the single currency's long-term prospects far from assured, Beijing risks learning a lesson about trying to fight a market more inclined to sell than buy.
For months, whispers of "Asian official buying" have permeated markets when the euro fell below certain levels. That talk has kept euro/dollar hemmed into a tight seven-cent range since late May, even as fears of a Greek default make traders disinclined to hold the single currency.
China, the world's biggest holder of foreign-exchange reserves, has pledged financial support to the distressed euro-zone periphery while touting its economic links to Europe.
There are perils to China's strategy, however. Most market observers agree that it is never a good idea to fight the market. Just ask the European Central Bank which spent months buying distressed periphery bonds to calm markets--only to have yields surge amid fears of a Greek default.
However, investors appear reluctant to go against China's vast economic resources.
China holds more than $3 trillion in foreign-exchange reserves, with an estimated 60% of those in dollars. Its strategy toward the beleaguered euro zone helps it accomplish two goals: expanding its global reach and satisfying the need to diversify its vast reserves.
"The market is inclined to sell the euro on rallies [whereas] China wants to buy it on dips," said Michael Woolfolk, senior currency strategist at BNY Mellon in New York. "It maintains the current range-bound conditions until we get clarification on the long-term outcome for Greece."
China's secretive financial dealings and the FX market's own opacity make exact figures for China's affinity for euro-denominated assets hard to come by.
Yet analysts point to official data showing that Chinese U.S. Treasurys holdings have fallen by at least $300 billion recently. Analysis of flows by Bank of America-Merrill Lynch shows that monetary authorities have been net sellers of dollars over the past four weeks, translating them into euros.
By looking at the rate of China's foreign-asset accumulation, Woolfolk estimates that authorities sell about $2 billion per trading session, with roughly a third converted into euros.
That dovetails with research by Douglas Borthwick, a managing director at currency broker Faros Trading.
Based on asset-allocation trends by the China Investment Corporation (CIC), he estimates the country could invest 500 billion euros ($722 billion) overall in Europe over five years, with 20% devoted to euro-zone peripheries. "That would buy a large amount of goodwill and lubricate other sensitive purchases throughout Europe," he said.
That doesn't mean China's largesse comes without limits.
Analysts see a remote but growing possibility of two worst-case scenarios. Greece dropping out of the euro, or fears about insolvency bringing the troubled economies of Spain, Ireland or Portugal to their knees.
If either of those come to pass, it may give China pause about throwing good money after bad.

hi all! how have you been. my gawd this greenback. haha.

we've been selling dollars sgd since april last year. the position built now is unimaginably huge.

It appears that the winds of change are blowing hard.

Maybe I did not have enough coffee.
Am I seeing a potential reversal here
or just a dump before the unemployment number?

Hi luSan, I've been trading the reversal this morning. Not that I am right, but am in the E/$ for the second time (took a 2 pip loss on the first try) at 1.4478, will protect 4476. Good trading my friends!

Edit: and it could be a dump before the numbers in 24 minutes.

However, the pound got a beaten.
3k not in sync.

Yep, and you could land an airplane on my yen chart -- lol. I am square at 4450 and now waiting for a continuation/the next sell entry, or a return to the up trend. I am keeping an eye on equity futures, too. For little old me, it's best to be on the sideline until after the FA.

Hey Bro jest !!

.

.4999 ...
I think of great short ... dance ...
is now difficult to imagine ...
... 1.1368 ...

sorry LuSan... 1.4599...

Hi MaMood,

As it turned out, you have chosen a very difficult session ... 29.06
but I hope that everything went well ...


RGS

FTI... beautiful ...
everything can change ...

and the beginning of this was 29.06 ...
it seems that this really is the end of the Euro ...

Hi Gart,

thanx for taking care.

I have had 2 session yesterday and 2 today. All went out with some profits. What more can I expect ;-)

Hope the participants could derive something useful from the trading session. It least I tried to show, how relaxed trading can be, when your risk management is working well ..

If your interested to take part too, give me shout per PM.
Mot probabyl their will be one more session next week.

All the best,
Niels

I have no particular bias.
-This is a wide range...
hanging on Zeus and Mars-
They change as thing happens.
499 136 4599?
Are these magic number?
I'd wish you good luck.
I just do not know.
Let us see what tonight the market
will bring.

So very sorry to hear FTI...one more thing at a time like this. Will be praying. Keep strong...hold on to the Lord.

Hi Mamood,

Again, thank you for the session you provided for us yesterday. It was really useful. Thanks.

GBU

Joko