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Order Flow - Achieving the mindset

  • #2,201
  • Jun 29, 2011 3:53pm Jun 29, 2011 3:53pm
wow its crazy watching this happen and understanding it.. kind of
  • #2,202
  • Jun 29, 2011 4:47pm Jun 29, 2011 4:47pm
Quoting Nervousone
wow its crazy watching this happen and understanding it.. kind of
Yes, it was a nice show. Also note that it was the perfect time (less liquidity) for this move. It's over now so i guess it will just hang around, consolidating.
  • #2,203
  • Jun 29, 2011 5:19pm Jun 29, 2011 5:19pm
Quoting sumi
Yes, it was a nice show. Also note that it was the perfect time (less liquidity) for this move. It's over now so i guess it will just hang around, consolidating.
Hmmm...I'd like to see it take out 1.4500..I got the odd feeling there's still some juice left.

As a side note, do any of you tend to hold swing/position trades? I'm running into the awful problem of not having enough margin to make these little plays that can top up the balance nicely...and I don't want to close out any of my other positions as yet..How do you guys cope? I've lowered my risk to 1%-1.5% but still nothing EmeraldEyes?

Regards,
xXTrizzleXx
  • #2,204
  • Jun 29, 2011 5:33pm Jun 29, 2011 5:33pm
Quoting xXTrizzleXx
Hmmm...I'd like to see it take out 1.4500..I got the odd feeling there's still some juice left.
I doubt we'll see much of a continuation today. Asia usually consolidates LO/NY moves. Nikkei is positive, but only modestly. Also, the euro has not made much of a move after the vote (besides the whipsaw), meaning that the vote pass was pretty much priced in.

Dealers have used the pre-tokyo low-liquidity to gun for the stops above the 1.4450 option. The move was handsome also due to the stops of the traders that have shorted the euro on the 'buy the rumors, sell the news' after the vote.

London will probably get to 1.45 but only after a move down, to get more people on the train.

That's my take. Might be also wrong...
  • #2,205
  • Jun 29, 2011 5:42pm Jun 29, 2011 5:42pm
Quoting sumi
I doubt we'll see much of a continuation today. Asia usually consolidates LO/NY moves. Nikkei is positive, but only modestly. Also, the euro has not made much of a move after the vote (besides the whipsaw), meaning that the vote pass was pretty much priced in.

Dealers have used the pre-tokyo low-liquidity to gun for the stops above the 1.4450 option. The move was handsome also due to the stops of the traders that have shorted the euro on the 'buy the rumors, sell the news' after the vote.

London will probably get to 1.45 but only after a move...
Could very well be right. Might just have to sit tight and wait until London, but I'm off to bed. See how things play out in the AM.

Good luck,
xXTrizzleXx
  • #2,206
  • Jun 29, 2011 6:09pm Jun 29, 2011 6:09pm
Quoting xXTrizzleXx
As a side note, do any of you tend to hold swing/position trades? I'm running into the awful problem of not having enough margin to make these little plays that can top up the balance nicely...and I don't want to close out any of my other positions as yet..How do you guys cope? I've lowered my risk to 1%-1.5% but still nothing EmeraldEyes?
You can "modulate" the two together, ie: if you are long EU and want to short it for a swing play, decrease your long position. And you weigh the orders by the confidence level of each trade. Of course, this will not require more margin only if the two trades are in opposite directions.
  • #2,207
  • Jun 29, 2011 6:58pm Jun 29, 2011 6:58pm
well I'm short from 4471 and 4479. It didn't reverse quickly like I thought it would, but I'm in the profit.

I'm expecting a bounce off of 4440. Resistance turns to support.


Speaking of resistance turn support and vice versa, I notice plenty of examples of this and it makes sense with an order flow mindset. What do you guys think?
  • #2,208
  • Jun 29, 2011 8:19pm Jun 29, 2011 8:19pm
Quoting Monroe
btw this vote passed, I saw vicky_ag posted a comment that he hopes it doesn't pass, I don't see why anyone takes offense to that... it seems that's what the people of Greece want anyway... and the Greek riot dog too. This is a a lot different then saying they hope another tsunami hits someplace that offers them great opportunity in the markets.

Now I am the furthest thing from an economist, but it would seem that leaving the euro zone and defaulting would be the better option for Greece wouldn't it? Russia handled it well.. took them 10 years...
Monroe, I found that surprising too. I was joking when I made that comment.
Speaking of Russians, they did cause the fall of LTCM and eventually a crash.
Anyways on to on-topic discussion:

4500 was taken out eventually.
  • #2,209
  • Jun 29, 2011 8:27pm Jun 29, 2011 8:27pm
Quoting Darkstar
Ohh Sweet Liquidity

Enjoy
DS, thank you for posting this. Lately I had been out of control making things WAY to complicated, then you come along with this and boil things down to the basics.

Made 11% in about 4 hours tonight on the GBP/USD and AUD/USD stops.

Thanks again
  • #2,210
  • Edited 8:45pm Jun 29, 2011 8:33pm | Edited 8:45pm
Quoting vicky_ag
Speaking of Russians, they did cause the fall of LTCM and eventually a crash.
.
Yea, I know you were jokin' but you got some people panties all in a bunch on that one lol.

I remember reading that or seeing it in the LTCM documentray maybe.

However I have been there and it's a cool place. I was told by someone that lived through it that the money was worth dog shit after that and it was rough times, but it finally worked itself out.

yea 4500 was cracked and we're at the top of the triangle on the daily charts... I think I might go for a small reversal play in London if the PA shapes up for it. maybe around 4530-4550 or so.. maybe they will even yank it back to the 4450, possibly the asian lows.
  • #2,211
  • Jun 29, 2011 9:05pm Jun 29, 2011 9:05pm
what's up with this Toshin demand... talk the market may now be focusing on the US budget and risk-on trades? Greek implementation laws and details on that still tomorrow.. Trichet set to speak tonight and the EZ CPI Flash Estimates... if that turns out weak along with US data later on in NY that could be interesting..
  • #2,212
  • Jun 30, 2011 2:30am Jun 30, 2011 2:30am
Quoting Monroe
Yea, I know you were jokin' but you got some people panties all in a bunch on that one lol.

I remember reading that or seeing it in the LTCM documentray maybe.

However I have been there and it's a cool place. I was told by someone that lived through it that the money was worth dog shit after that and it was rough times, but it finally worked itself out.

yea 4500 was cracked and we're at the top of the triangle on the daily charts... I think I might go for a small reversal play in London if the PA shapes up for it. maybe around 4530-4550 or...
Thats funny, Monroe lol
LTCM's case was one of the first case, where a single company causing huge ripples in the economy, that I read about. It was a bad time not only for the Russian economy, American economy was hit too. Though the moot lesson remains you cant fight debt with more debt. It is like standing in a bucket and then trying to lift that bucket.

The retail sentiment is short and euro is having an impending interest rate. I having waiting it to go lower to enter a long. How you doing?
  • #2,213
  • Jun 30, 2011 3:24am Jun 30, 2011 3:24am
Quoting vicky_ag
It is like standing in a bucket and then trying to lift that bucket.
lol yea, you won't get anywhere trying that stunt...

Quote
The retail sentiment is short and euro is having an impending interest rate. I having waiting it to go lower to enter a long. How you doing?

Well, although those fundamental factors are true, I think it's fair to say the July rate hike is baked in. It will now depend on whether or not Trichet hints to the market that it can expect the rate hikes to keep coming and how the US debt and QE2 thing unravels. He did talk Hawkish tonight and the CPI flash estimates came in about on target so no surprise there.

I think we have too many trend traders on board now and I think the retail has started to flip long... time for a little correction I was assuming. I went for the reversal, and I'm still short targeting the 4445 area but it's starting to get a bit stale and this shit is choppy.

NY will come on in a few hours and we have some US data as well so that could do something too...

UJ looks good for a long but I could be very wrong on that... maybe better to target the stops under the 80...
  • #2,214
  • Jun 30, 2011 3:33am Jun 30, 2011 3:33am
I should probably just hang it up for the week with this month end/half end shit going on...
  • #2,215
  • Jun 30, 2011 5:11am Jun 30, 2011 5:11am
Quoting Adal
You can "modulate" the two together, ie: if you are long EU and want to short it for a swing play, decrease your long position. And you weigh the orders by the confidence level of each trade. Of course, this will not require more margin only if the two trades are in opposite directions.
Heya Adal, thanks for the response. Sadly however, it's an increasing number of plays in the same direction that I'd like to make. Will work something out to rectify it though.

Quoting Monroe
Well, although those fundamental factors are true, I think it's fair to say the July rate hike is baked in. It will now depend on whether or not Trichet hints to the market that it can expect the rate hikes to keep coming and how the US debt and QE2 thing unravels.
Definitely agree with you here, but I got the impression that while the rate hike is baked in the cake, I didn't think the market would be so quick to price it in, with the event risk of the Greek saga, and the low liquidity lurking at end of the month/half book flattening. I was thinking we might get some movement next week until around 1.4700 maybe and then another buy the rumor sell the fact jamboree.

Quote
I think we have too many trend traders on board now and I think the retail has started to flip long... time for a little correction I was assuming. I went for the reversal, and I'm still short targeting the 4445 area but it's starting to get a bit stale and this shit is choppy.
Good target area I'm thinking of taking another long after their shakeout.

Regards,
xXTrizzleXx
  • #2,216
  • Edited 5:47am Jun 30, 2011 5:31am | Edited 5:47am
Quoting xXTrizzleXx
Definitely agree with you here, but I got the impression that while the rate hike is baked in the cake, I didn't think the market would be so quick to price it in, with the event risk of the Greek saga, and the low liquidity lurking at end of the month/half book flattening. I was thinking we might get some movement next week until around 1.4700 maybe and then another buy the rumor sell the fact jamboree.
What's up Trizzle... yea me either man, it was pretty crazy. 4100 area ended up being perfect... damn I could have been sitting pretty...

Still, I'm learning more and more every time there's an event or theme in focus and I start seeing it shifting in the background, watching and thinking about the sentiment and the markets expectations of it and the outcome. It's definitely an art, I haven't finely honed my skills yet, but I'm working on it.

4700... you may very well be right, I heard about the panda's option structure up there today....

Quote

Good target area I'm thinking of taking another long after their shakeout.

Regards,
xXTrizzleXx

  • #2,217
  • Jun 30, 2011 5:35am Jun 30, 2011 5:35am
Quoting Monroe
Well, although those fundamental factors are true, I think it's fair to say the July rate hike is baked in. It will now depend on whether or not Trichet hints to the market that it can expect the rate hikes to keep coming and how the US debt and QE2 thing unravels. He did talk Hawkish tonight and the CPI flash estimates came in about on target so no surprise there.
...
Fair point. The not much upward movement of the market despite the hawkish rhetoric does spell some trouble

Quote
I think we have too many trend traders on board now and I think the retail has started to flip long... time for a little correction I was assuming. I went for the reversal, and I'm still short targeting the 4445 area but it's starting to get a bit stale and this shit is choppy.

NY will come on in a few hours and we have some US data as well so that could do something too...

UJ looks good for a long but I could be very wrong on that... maybe better to target the stops under the 80
I had the same idea myself as a daytrade. Shorting from 4510-4515, it sucks that I was stuck it a boring/useless meeting at work.

Quoting xXTrizzleXx
Good target area I'm thinking of taking another long after their shakeout.
Good idea. I was contemplating the same before watching the rejection near 4415.
  • #2,218
  • Jun 30, 2011 6:55am Jun 30, 2011 6:55am
Beautiful short covering going on in EUR/CHF...very nicely done...looks like it was a CHF related move.
  • #2,219
  • Jun 30, 2011 7:01am Jun 30, 2011 7:01am
Quoting xXTrizzleXx
Beautiful short covering going on in EUR/CHF...very nicely done...looks like it was a CHF related move.
indeed... specs... look at GBP/CHF... the monster.

I might wait for a pullback on these pairs and go for a long term trade.
  • #2,220
  • Jun 30, 2011 7:19am Jun 30, 2011 7:19am
Quoting Monroe
indeed... specs... look at GBP/CHF... the monster.

I might wait for a pullback on these pairs and go for a long term trade.
Sounds good to me! If things don't get too overextended Asian Session looks ripe for some EUR picking...hope I'll be home in time. You think this risk appetite will linger?

Regards,
xXTrizzleXx
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