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Perfect Wave - 2011-Q2

  • #21
  • Jun 6, 2011 8:16am Jun 6, 2011 8:16am
Kotlt - From the daily chart, it's hard for us to know if the wave from 05/12/2011 low to last week's high is an impulsive wave of a corrective wave. After seeing the intraday pattern, it seems to be a corrective wave (with 3 segments: a, b, c). The wave c is a classic one with 5 segments (_1, _2, _3, _4, _5) with one complex (_2) and one simple (_1) corrections inside. After the 3 segments, we see a impulsive mini 5 segments down. Is that the C.1, or is that still in the B (i.e., B.b)? We need the market to confirm.
  • #22
  • Jun 6, 2011 8:48am Jun 6, 2011 8:48am
snowrider, my english is not good, sorry.

In your chart above, you mean we have a FLAT 3-3-5? And that FLAT is wave B of higher ZIGZAG?

Thank your support.
Keep Simple...!
  • #23
  • Jun 6, 2011 8:58am Jun 6, 2011 8:58am
Quoting kotlt
snowrider, my english is not good, sorry.

In your chart above, you mean we have a FLAT 3-3-5? And that FLAT is wave B of higher ZIGZAG?

Thank your support.
You are welcome. From my chart, we see there is an a-b-c up and then a 5 mini segements down. I mark "1 ???" for that down wave. It could be:

1. A new big down wave has started, so the 5 mini segements down are actually the down wave 1 of bigger wave C. (See your chart has big A-B-C down waves.) Then a big collapse is on the way.

2. The 5 mini segements down could be still in a complex correction of big wave B. In this case, it will be the wave-b of bigger wave-B (in your chart). Then the market will move up to your chart's 50% to finish wave-B.
  • #24
  • Jun 6, 2011 9:05am Jun 6, 2011 9:05am
Quoting snowrider
You are welcome. From my chart, we see there is an a-b-c up and then a 5 mini segements down. I mark "1 ???" for that down wave. It could be:

1. A new big down wave has started, so the 5 mini segements down are actually the down wave 1 of bigger wave C. (See your chart has big A-B-C down waves.) Then a big collapse is on the way.

2. The 5 mini segements down could be still in a complex correction of big wave B. In this case, it will be the wave-b of bigger wave-B (in your chart). Then the market will move up to your chart's 50% to finish...
Understood . I believe your second opinion have better view.

Hope we will see result soon . Do you mind if i update silver count in future in your thread?
Keep Simple...!
  • #25
  • Jun 6, 2011 9:30am Jun 6, 2011 9:30am
snowrider, can you please share your U/J weekly or monthly count? I'm interest in this chart, but do not know when to begin. My chart begin at 1 Apr 1989 and it's hard to count this chart ( impluse or corrective wave???)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2.gif Size: 24 KB
Keep Simple...!
  • #26
  • Jun 6, 2011 10:24am Jun 6, 2011 10:24am
Quoting kotlt
Understood . I believe your second opinion have better view.

Hope we will see result soon . Do you mind if i update silver count in future in your thread?

You are very welcome to share your counts, thought, charts ... anything here. We can sharpen our skill by studying each other's opinion. Thanks!
  • #27
  • Jun 6, 2011 11:02am Jun 6, 2011 11:02am
Quoting kotlt
snowrider, can you please share your U/J weekly or monthly count? I'm interest in this chart, but do not know when to begin. My chart begin at 1 Apr 1989 and it's hard to count this chart ( impluse or corrective wave???)
Yes, I agree that Yen is one of the hardest currencies to count (and to trade). I'll reply this when I am less busy.
  • #28
  • Jun 11, 2011 12:38pm Jun 11, 2011 12:38pm
Quoting kotlt
snowrider, can you please share your U/J weekly or monthly count? I'm interest in this chart, but do not know when to begin. My chart begin at 1 Apr 1989 and it's hard to count this chart ( impluse or corrective wave???)
kotlt - Please see the attached chart. One of the reasons that JPY is not easy to count and to trade is about its current wave. From the chart, you can see that it has formed a huge triangle since 1994. I count that triangle as wave-[[IV]]. The current wave could be the wave-[[V]], which is ending the long term appreciation of Yen.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 20110611 JPY - Long Term.gif Size: 27 KB
  • #29
  • Jun 11, 2011 2:59pm Jun 11, 2011 2:59pm
Comments are welcome!

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/atta...1-sp-daily.png

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/atta...gold-daily.png

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/atta...-eur-daily.png

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/atta...-jpy-daily.png
  • #30
  • Jun 18, 2011 12:55pm Jun 18, 2011 12:55pm
Comments are welcome!

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/atta...8-sp-daily.png

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/atta...gold-daily.png

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/atta...-eur-daily.png

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/atta...-jpy-daily.png
  • #31
  • Jun 26, 2011 12:31pm Jun 26, 2011 12:31pm
06/26/2011

Comments are welcome!

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/atta...5-sp-daily.png

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/atta...gold-daily.png

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/atta...-eur-daily.png

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/atta...-jpy-daily.png
  • #32
  • Jun 29, 2011 10:50pm Jun 29, 2011 10:50pm
06/29/2011

Comments are welcome!

Case-1: C D [[D]].[C].E 1 2 3 4 5
... to resume the bearish move

Case-2: C D [[D]].[C].E A(abc) B(abc) C
... to form the R shoulder of a huge H&S top

Case-3: C D(abc x abc) [[D]].[C].E(12345)
... to peak at around 1386

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/atta...p-intraday.png
  • #33
  • Jun 30, 2011 10:10pm Jun 30, 2011 10:10pm
Where We Stand Now

06/30/2011

Q - Why is SP's preferred wave count in daily chart a bearish one for semi long term?

A - A convincing answer for general public is the google result of "stock seasonal trend". However, to us EW believers, the real answer is that a super bull (wave-[[[V]]]) will be coming after the bear market ends.

Scenario-1:
A giant multi-year triangle forming
the super cycle's wave-[[[IV]]] will
complete in 800-900 area
sometimes next year, and then a
super bull wave-[[[V]]] starts

However, if the market continues being manipulated and rejecting the gravity, a real doomsday will come eventually. In that case, when all resorts are depleted, the market will hard to come back in decade.

Scenario-2:
If the super cycle's wave-[[[IV]]]
has completed in an flat abc format
in 2009, we now are in wave-[[[V]]]
(the the final phase of the bull market)
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/atta...sp-monthly.png
  • #34
  • Last Post: Jul 1, 2011 10:38pm Jul 1, 2011 10:38pm
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