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The market never cared about your moving average or candlestick analysis

  • #21
  • Jun 22, 2011 11:39pm Jun 22, 2011 11:39pm
Quoting tdion
Just saying...
Theoretically you can be right...
  • #22
  • Jun 27, 2011 2:54pm Jun 27, 2011 2:54pm
If I had to coin my philosophy on trading, it could come to a simple sentence: "If it can happen, it will."

That means that any chart pattern will be defy it's expected completion at some time or another. Perhaps every single time?

You expect nothing of the market, then you have a clear concious trading.
  • #23
  • Jun 27, 2011 7:56pm Jun 27, 2011 7:56pm
Quoting tdion
Just saying...
Because it is widely known.
  • #24
  • Jun 29, 2011 2:22pm Jun 29, 2011 2:22pm
Let's add a few more to the list:

The market never cared about:
1) Elliott Waves
2) Gann Counts
3) Bollinger Bands
4) Fibonacci Retracements
5) Double/Triple Tops/Bottoms
6) Head and Shoulders
7) Pivot Points
8) Trading Session
9) Multi Timeframe Confluence
10) Breakouts

The market cares about one thing: NOTHING!
  • #25
  • Jun 29, 2011 3:19pm Jun 29, 2011 3:19pm
Eh Tdion, welcome back from the wilderness. Good to see the cynicism is still ramped up to 10 though your conclusions are bat crazy if you don't mind me saying.

I don't get this mysterious abstraction of the market. It's made up of people making decisions. So whatever they give a monkeys about, you should do. That included the time they start work (sessions), if they have a hangover (sentiment), how much inventory they're going to shift and how they're going to do it (head/shoulders or some other pattern. It's impossible to NOT leave a trace), breakouts (price rarely walks out of a range)...

I could go on, but I know you've already made your mind up.
  • #26
  • Jun 29, 2011 3:28pm Jun 29, 2011 3:28pm
"Although the effort is currently anonprofit operation, plans for formation of a company that follows strict government regulations will follow if there isenough interest in the product."

http://www.euro-investments.us/

NONCOMMERCIAL though... *cough*
  • #27
  • Jun 29, 2011 3:29pm Jun 29, 2011 3:29pm
Quoting tdion
Let's add a few more to the list:

The market never cared about:
1) Elliott Waves
2) Gann Counts
3) Bollinger Bands
4) Fibonacci Retracements
5) Double/Triple Tops/Bottoms
6) Head and Shoulders
7) Pivot Points
8) Trading Session
9) Multi Timeframe Confluence
10) Breakouts

The market cares about one thing: NOTHING!
all those will fail you at some point, however supply and demand(flow) will never. I can assure you, institutional traders use TA , but flows have the last say. If the market really wants those stops, no matter where they are, they will get them. Hence the old adage, "the market can remain irrational far longer than you can remain solvent"
  • #28
  • Jun 29, 2011 4:15pm Jun 29, 2011 4:15pm
I have never traded a dime of anyone else's money but my own in the 6 years I have been on this forum.

Quoting Deusomega
"Although the effort is currently anonprofit operation, plans for formation of a company that follows strict government regulations will follow if there isenough interest in the product."

http://www.euro-investments.us/

NONCOMMERCIAL though... *cough*
  • #29
  • Jun 29, 2011 4:18pm Jun 29, 2011 4:18pm


Quoting triphop
Good to see the cynicism is still ramped up to 10 though your conclusions are bat crazy if you don't mind me saying.
  • #30
  • Jun 29, 2011 4:31pm Jun 29, 2011 4:31pm
Quoting tdion
I have never traded a dime of anyone else's money but my own in the 6 years I have been on this forum.
Jacko didn't either for quite a few years I think...

You have a commercial intent or agenda whether that is directed towards the future is irrelevant in my mind. Who else names their website "Euro Investments"

"Mr. Dion started this venture as a private endeavor, and felt the need
to advertise the unparalled earning potential of his Euro
exchange rate prediction algorithm. "

Yes advertise it. Look up the word advertise lol. Maybe your subconcious is letting it slip lol.

The purpose of this website is provide potential investors with a track record of the fund's performance.

Could it be any clearer what your true intent is?

Don't piss on my boots and try to tell me its raining...
  • #31
  • Jun 29, 2011 4:42pm Jun 29, 2011 4:42pm
It's irrelevant whether I start a company or not. Trading technical analysis is gambling. My algorithm performed very well over the last 12 years, but it isn't magic. If I ever start a business trading, I will probably name it "Lucky Strike."

Capiche?
  • #32
  • Jun 29, 2011 4:57pm Jun 29, 2011 4:57pm
This is really good.

Quoting mfoste1
Hence the old adage, "the market can remain irrational far longer than you can remain solvent"
  • #33
  • Jun 29, 2011 5:26pm Jun 29, 2011 5:26pm
Quoting Deusomega
Jacko didn't either for quite a few years I think...

You have a commercial intent or agenda whether that is directed towards the future is irrelevant in my mind. Who else names their website "Euro Investments"

"Mr. Dion started this venture as a private endeavor, and felt the need
to advertise the unparalled earning potential of his Euro
exchange rate prediction algorithm. "

Yes advertise it. Look up the word advertise lol. Maybe your subconcious is letting it slip lol.

[b][u]The purpose of this website is...
ummmmm, it's raining but I feel a lot better.

thanks
A woman drove me to drink, and I forgot to thank her
  • #34
  • Jun 29, 2011 5:44pm Jun 29, 2011 5:44pm
Quoting tdion
This is really good.
so how do u trade then if thats your mindset?
  • #35
  • Jun 29, 2011 5:47pm Jun 29, 2011 5:47pm
Quoting tdion
It's irrelevant whether I start a company or not. Trading technical analysis is gambling. My algorithm performed very well over the last 12 years, but it isn't magic. If I ever start a business trading, I will probably name it "Lucky Strike."

Capiche?

Does the market care about your algorithm?

Does the market look after your quant magic stuffs?
  • #36
  • Jun 29, 2011 6:23pm Jun 29, 2011 6:23pm
Nope. The market will poop on me without thinking twice.

Quoting Jack168
Does the market care about your algorithm?

Does the market look after your quant magic stuffs?
  • #37
  • Jun 29, 2011 6:29pm Jun 29, 2011 6:29pm
If anybody cared, my algorithm is all based on support and resistance. It made 1,800 trades since 1998, winning 80% and gaining 21,000 pips with only one position open at a time (no scaling) and a maximum drawdown of 1,200 pips. This was with a 2 pip spread.

Does that make me feel good about my algorithm? NOT AT ALL.

It doesn't prove anything. There is no observable CAUSE/EFFECT that I can identify to say "Yes, this WILL WORK and here is WHY." All I have is a statistical model.... nothing more, nothing less.


So, when you first read this post, it appears as though I am touting my algorithm and advertising. NOPE.
  • #38
  • Jun 29, 2011 6:42pm Jun 29, 2011 6:42pm
Quoting tdion
If anybody cared, my algorithm is all based on support and resistance. It made 1,800 trades since 1998, winning 80% and gaining 21,000 pips with only one position open at a time (no scaling) and a maximum drawdown of 1,200 pips. This was with a 2 pip spread.

Does that make me feel good about my algorithm? NOT AT ALL.

It doesn't prove anything. There is no observable CAUSE/EFFECT that I can identify to say "Yes, this WILL WORK and here is WHY." All I have is a statistical model.... nothing more, nothing less....
Can you share any charts of your recent trades to get an idea of how you use s and r to trade
  • #39
  • Jun 30, 2011 12:59am Jun 30, 2011 12:59am
+25%?

Also, relevant performance metric would be reward vs risk. Some of your years look pretty bad on risk basis - there are some VERY high drawdowns, 2003 for example - this tells about far too high risk ratio and will give you very nice looking CAGR but you will kill yourself because of the DD - What if you had taken peak amount of investor money in 2003?
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  • #40
  • Jun 30, 2011 1:23am Jun 30, 2011 1:23am
Quoting Deusomega
Jacko didn't either for quite a few years I think...

You have a commercial intent or agenda whether that is directed towards the future is irrelevant in my mind. Who else names their website "Euro Investments"

"Mr. Dion started this venture as a private endeavor, and felt the need
to advertise the unparalled earning potential of his Euro
exchange rate prediction algorithm. "

Yes advertise it. Look up the word advertise lol. Maybe your subconcious is letting it slip lol.

[b][u]The purpose of this website is...
Thanks for your thought provoking commentary. Now run along and go play on your demo account.
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