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Silent Service Method

  • #12,581
  • Jun 24, 2011 8:08pm Jun 24, 2011 8:08pm
Quoting Hugh Briss
I have come to a point.

The full stop means something.

I have come to a point of clarity.

I am as about as drunk as a skunk can be but yet I have had a revelation.

I was watching Keith Floyd in America, he was fishing for big fish in a Hemmingway styli and failed. The fish broke off the relationship. (Relationship? That's a big word (read Woody Allen)).

Ok so what can I learn from this??????

Somedays there ain't no fish...

Can I apply this to my trading which for the most part is on daily charts? You bet I can!

Discipline has always...

VERY TRUE. Lately, I have been shorting XXX/CHF pairs. I have been focusing on the GBP/CHF and EUR/CHF pairs more than anything else. I am finding that by being patient and waiting - I have been pulling money out of the market with more ease that I can remember at any given time.
  • #12,582
  • Jun 24, 2011 8:09pm Jun 24, 2011 8:09pm
Quoting bgin2end
How is everyone? Took a break from posting, but I have returned...

What's new?
Not too bad, just been buying the Franc every time it presents a chance to. While everyone else is going ape shit for the Euro - I have been playing the other pairs and doing quite well......Glad to have you back.
  • #12,583
  • Jun 24, 2011 8:09pm Jun 24, 2011 8:09pm
Quoting kaspopsicle
trading is the most amazing and enriching journey i have ever taken, you dont have to come out the other side just keep going....
Too true.
  • #12,584
  • Jun 24, 2011 8:12pm Jun 24, 2011 8:12pm
Quoting Venice
Hey Chris,

Any thoughts on this extreme market volatility? I'm finding it very difficult to swing trade. It can't just be Greece... does this feel more like big boys changing positions? Whatever it is... I'm ready for it to calm down....

Man, last year was cake... sell the dollar, buy everything else... this is just getting painful to trade on the daily though.
I am not sure. The Greece thing is much bigger than people let on to be honest. But my advice is to step back, and base your trades off of the weekly charts - they tend to be clearer most of the time. Also, don't always focus on the "obvious" pairs that everyone is talking about - that's a big lesson I relearned over the last couple of weeks. While the world is following the EUR/USD pair, I have been trading GBP/CHF. I have found that quite often having everyone paying attention to a pair isn't always the best thing. The EUR/USD is a perfect example of that right now.

Also - watch the GBP/USD @ 1.59 - that could be a huge move down if it breaks, which I think is very likely.
  • #12,585
  • Jun 24, 2011 11:29pm Jun 24, 2011 11:29pm
New blog post/video.
  • #12,586
  • Jun 26, 2011 9:55pm Jun 26, 2011 9:55pm
This week could be very interesting for a couple of currencies: EUR and GBP. Also, keep an eye on USD/CAD - it seems to want to try and find parity....
  • #12,587
  • Jun 27, 2011 1:09am Jun 27, 2011 1:09am
Quoting clockwork71
Also, keep an eye on USD/CAD - it seems to want to try and find parity....
I'm eyeing 1.0 for a short......if PA allows....
  • #12,588
  • Jun 27, 2011 7:56am Jun 27, 2011 7:56am
Quoting mypipbull
I'm eyeing 1.0 for a short......if PA allows....
Agreed 110%. Also, that would jive well with a possible bottom in the oil market around 80-85 if we fall that far. I certainly am not interesting in buying this pair at all. Above that, I see 1.03 as a major area as well.
  • #12,589
  • Jun 27, 2011 7:27pm Jun 27, 2011 7:27pm
Quoting clockwork71
. Above that, I see 1.03 as a major area as well.
Agree as well....marked on my chart.
This morning USD/CAD printed a pin which is really tempting to take. I just have the feeling it has not quite 'got there' yet. Still think its a bit early? Looking at the other CAD crosses they are not quite at S/R yet either apart from the CAD/JPY (minor level). Brent Crude has a nice looking pin however.....so maybe it is there??....I'm sitting on my hands for now. If U/C drops I will look to sell a 4H retracement maybe??....
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  • #12,590
  • Jun 27, 2011 10:08pm Jun 27, 2011 10:08pm
Quoting mypipbull
Agree as well....marked on my chart.
This morning USD/CAD printed a pin which is really tempting to take. I just have the feeling it has not quite 'got there' yet. Still think its a bit early? Looking at the other CAD crosses they are not quite at S/R yet either apart from the CAD/JPY (minor level). Brent Crude has a nice looking pin however.....so maybe it is there??....I'm sitting on my hands for now. If U/C drops I will look to sell a 4H retracement maybe??....
I believe that you are correct - it all comes down to oil. I think that eventually we will get a situation where all of the charts say the same thing, but as you mentioned - we aren't there yet.

I would also mentioned that you will want to watch more than the CL, (Light Sweet Crude)but also the Brent contract. (Listed under the symbol COIL on ISE)

I am including the Brent chart to this post, as I know many of you don't normally see it. Of interest - the pinbar formed on Monday is also at the bottom of a potential head and shoulders......this could get interesting.
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  • #12,591
  • Jun 28, 2011 7:59pm Jun 28, 2011 7:59pm
I have had two different people ask me what I was going to do about the "Greek vote" tomorrow. Because of this, I am going to post my response in this public thread.

I believe that the EUR/USD will more than likely under perform, if not fall. I can see a few possibilities in the result, and how the market will react - all of which tell me I don't want to buy.

When you look at the last couple of days, the first thing you have to ask is who will be buying. The markets have already jumped over the last couple of days, and because of this - you would have to think a majority of the traders who expect the Greeks to vote for austerity have already bought the Euro. Because of this, I feel that the market might have a lack of momentum and strength under it as a majority of bullish traders are already in. If this is true, I wouldn't buy it because there is a real chance of a "sell the news" type of situation. In fact, you could say that about a lot of other markets as well. (Not just Forex markets.)

Even if the Euro does react positively to a vote for the austerity measures, I see 1.45 as a fairly serious resistance area, and if we have a lot of the bulls already there, and they stay in - how much more momentum can the market muster? Can it break through? I don't know, but I am not counting on it.

The other possibility is that the Greeks don't vote for it. The EUR/USD is going to absolutely fall apart at that point, and I certainly wouldn't be a buyer at that point. In fact, I think that could be what gets 1.40 to give way.

Because of all of this, I doubt I will be buying the EUR/USD under any circumstance. I would be more apt to sell it, and very well might if I see weakness. To be honest, I think if the Greeks tell the rest of Europe to "Get stuffed" by voting against the austerity measure - you can sell just about anything risk-related and make money. That could possibly cause the markets to run to the USD, and force GBP/USD under 1.59 as well. (A level I have been watching.)

Of course, the EUR/USD could go straight through the 1.45 area.....but I wouldn't hold my breath. To quote my hero, Willie from Bad Santa, (Billy Bob Thornton): "Sh*t in one hand and wish in the other, see which one fills up first."
  • #12,592
  • Jun 29, 2011 3:12pm Jun 29, 2011 3:12pm
Quoting clockwork71
To quote my hero, Willie from Bad Santa, (Billy Bob Thornton): "Sh*t in one hand and wish in the other, see which one fills up first."
Your hero too! Great quote especially in reference to the markets...

I would agree with your sentiment that the buying is slowing down on the E/U and have been selling into a lot of the run ups...

Basically, I am sitting on a Sh*t ton of shorts as I am watching this latest move, but I am probably the most patient trader I know . We shall see.
  • #12,593
  • Jun 29, 2011 7:17pm Jun 29, 2011 7:17pm
Quoting bgin2end
Your hero too! Great quote especially in reference to the markets...

I would agree with your sentiment that the buying is slowing down on the E/U and have been selling into a lot of the run ups...

Basically, I am sitting on a Sh*t ton of shorts as I am watching this latest move, but I am probably the most patient trader I know . We shall see.
After today's move, I still see 1.45 as the key.
  • #12,594
  • Jun 30, 2011 7:09pm Jun 30, 2011 7:09pm
Quoting mypipbull
Agree as well....marked on my chart.
This morning USD/CAD printed a pin which is really tempting to take. I just have the feeling it has not quite 'got there' yet. Still think its a bit early? Looking at the other CAD crosses they are not quite at S/R yet either apart from the CAD/JPY (minor level). Brent Crude has a nice looking pin however.....so maybe it is there??....I'm sitting on my hands for now. If U/C drops I will look to sell a 4H retracement maybe??....
Hmmm, it retrospect that would have been a great short.....good for a 200pip run in 3 days.....oh well thems the breaks....thankfully I have a sense of humour and can laugh it off.....sort of....
  • #12,595
  • Jun 30, 2011 7:38pm Jun 30, 2011 7:38pm
Quoting mypipbull
Hmmm, it retrospect that would have been a great short.....good for a 200pip run in 3 days.....oh well thems the breaks....thankfully I have a sense of humour and can laugh it off.....sort of....
No worries, I saw the closing of the oil markets are very unconvincing to be honest - and that has been the driver. Both the CL and Brent contracts closed with dojis right at resistance. I think they are both going to fall a bit in the near term, which should make the USD/CAD rise a bit. Of course, we could always sell the rallies......It's in a downtrend anyway.
  • #12,596
  • Jun 30, 2011 7:40pm Jun 30, 2011 7:40pm
Quoting clockwork71
After today's move, I still see 1.45 as the key.
Just an update. Interesting.
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  • #12,597
  • Jul 1, 2011 7:59am Jul 1, 2011 7:59am
Quoting clockwork71
Just an update. Interesting.
Very interesting. Watching from here, might add yet another short if I see further weakness...
  • #12,598
  • Jul 1, 2011 2:44pm Jul 1, 2011 2:44pm
Quoting bgin2end
Very interesting. Watching from here, might add yet another short if I see further weakness...
Hope you didn't. The market seems to be suffering from a case of hyper-mania at the moment. I think there is a valuable lesson in this though - there is a lot of talk about how markets are "forward looking", and tend to discount the next 6 months. At the same time, most people understand that Greece is going to be a problem again in about 2 months. Hard to argue with the machines I suppose, because I can't think that people are actually that stupid, but then again - these guys brought you the housing crisis.....

Oh well
  • #12,599
  • Jul 1, 2011 3:18pm Jul 1, 2011 3:18pm
Wow. If you have balls - check out the EUR/CHF monthly chart.
  • #12,600
  • Jul 2, 2011 1:51am Jul 2, 2011 1:51am
Quoting clockwork71
Wow. If you have balls - check out the EUR/CHF monthly chart.
Yep nice pinbar but not all pb's work lol.

I've been hoping for a decent pullback to go short again tho.

And it's testosterone(picking tops and bottoms) that kills most newbie's.
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