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Nanningbob 4h trading system ver. 5.0

  • #4,181
  • Jun 28, 2011 10:07pm Jun 28, 2011 10:07pm
Quoting vbmark
Ahh, much better, thanks!! However, I think I'm going to massage the colors just a wee bit more now that I understand how it works.
Oh, and changing to candles is nice too, thanks.



I thought I read somewhere that the lines of the Sixths indicator are dynamic and it doesn't matter about the zoom or windows size.

Does this mean you can't use it on the 1 hour for example?
There are only 2 basic versions of the sixth. One which I use adjusts to the screen you are using. I recommend you use it with at least 4 weeks showing on your chart on a 4H chart. It can adjust to anytime frame however and chart view. The other one is set at 120 bars?? or automatically sets to the last 4 weeks of the 4H chart now matter how you are viewing the chart. That means whether you enlarge or narrow your view the lines stay the same. I think it also adjusts to every time frame so the 1H chart would be the last 120 bars or the last 5 days or based on the last week of action. So double check which one you have.
  • #4,182
  • Jun 29, 2011 1:04am Jun 29, 2011 1:04am
Just make sure you are aware what the sixth indicator does. Actually, that's pretty simple, it cuts your screen into 6 pieces. So if you zoom out on a large time frame the distance from one line to the next is a large number of pips. Zoomed in and/or on a shorter timeframe is most likely a lot less.

Now I've heared of people using the sixth indi on a 15 minute timeframe and they have good profit for a while, with lots of trades opening. The chance of having a runner is much greater though so the risk increases.

Anyway, today may not be a good day to experiment with it on the short timeframe. Whatever the outcome of the Greece vote the market may make a fairly large move.
  • #4,183
  • Jun 29, 2011 6:29am Jun 29, 2011 6:29am
Quoting nanningbob
There are only 2 basic versions of the sixth. One which I use adjusts to the screen you are using. I recommend you use it with at least 4 weeks showing on your chart on a 4H chart. It can adjust to anytime frame however and chart view. The other one is set at 120 bars?? or automatically sets to the last 4 weeks of the 4H chart now matter how you are viewing the chart. That means whether you enlarge or narrow your view the lines stay the same. I think it also adjusts to every time frame so the 1H chart would be the last 120 bars or the last 5 days...
Ok, I checked the latest version and it just does the adjustment to the screen size and not the bar count. So I'm going to stick with that one. Thank you.

Quoting MorningMania
Just make sure you are aware what the sixth indicator does. Actually, that's pretty simple, it cuts your screen into 6 pieces. So if you zoom out on a large time frame the distance from one line to the next is a large number of pips. Zoomed in and/or on a shorter timeframe is most likely a lot less.

Now I've heared of people using the sixth indi on a 15 minute timeframe and they have good profit for a while, with lots of trades opening. The chance of having a runner is much greater though so the risk increases.
Ok, I see, that's great. Thank you.
  • #4,184
  • Jun 29, 2011 6:33am Jun 29, 2011 6:33am
I got up at the post of the 4 hour bars at midnight and 4 AM my time and looked at all 22 pairs both times and I did not see anything that I though was a candidate for taking a position on.

At this point I am really only looking for Primaries until I get a better feel for the system, but is it common to not have entries at such good trading times or am I missing some ingredient?

Thanks!
Mark
  • #4,185
  • Jun 29, 2011 7:16am Jun 29, 2011 7:16am
Quoting vbmark
I got up at the post of the 4 hour bars at midnight and 4 AM my time and looked at all 22 pairs both times and I did not see anything that I though was a candidate for taking a position on.

At this point I am really only looking for Primaries until I get a better feel for the system, but is it common to not have entries at such good trading times or am I missing some ingredient?

Thanks!
Mark
With the Euro-Greek thing prices have just been drifting or floating for a couple of days. Noone wants to make a move until this resolves itself to some point, then expect the market to make some interesting moves.
  • #4,186
  • Jun 29, 2011 7:25am Jun 29, 2011 7:25am
Quoting nanningbob
With the Euro-Greek thing prices have just been drifting or floating for a couple of days. Noone wants to make a move until this resolves itself to some point, then expect the market to make some interesting moves.
Ah, fundamentals. I try to ignore them but they keep intruding into my little world

Well, at least I'm glad I wasn't doing something wrong.

Thanks.
  • #4,187
  • Jun 29, 2011 9:22am Jun 29, 2011 9:22am
hi everyone

I was manuel trader.
normaly When I was using the sl? I was calculating my lots according to pips between open and stop level.(my risk was 1-2 percent.)

but in this strategy there is no any sl.

I want to know that How do you calculate your lot size? let's say my accounts is 2500usd.

kind regards.

Emre
  • #4,188
  • Jun 29, 2011 9:50am Jun 29, 2011 9:50am
Quoting emremerey
hi everyone
I was manuel trader...
Emre
Hi

Bob uses 10 cent lots per $1000 a/c balance. I use 10 cent lots for $2000 a/c balance and I strongly advise all new traders to use my example for at least one year till they get the hang of the system. So please start with 0.01 lots and review after one year. Please bear in mind with this system running DD of 3000 to 4000 pips is not uncommon.

Good Luck
  • #4,189
  • Jun 29, 2011 10:04am Jun 29, 2011 10:04am
Quoting astral77
Hi

Bob uses 10 cent lots per $1000 a/c balance. I use 10 cent lots for $2000 a/c balance and I strongly advise all new traders to use my example for at least one year till they get the hang of the system. So please start with 0.01 lots and review after one year. Please bear in mind with this system running DD of 3000 to 4000 pips is not uncommon.

Good Luck
With the new margin requirements here in the USA I can no longer trade .10 per thousand dollars. I am closer to .03-05 per thousand now. I will be teaching that in my future postings. I have already started that in other threads. while playing with an account of .01 per hundred I had very little DD but my margin usage could be used up. For example in my live account I am 3.4% DD but my margin usage is 19%. So if I hit some exciting times and have to use another level in all my trades my margin usage could jump to 50-60% even though my DD would still be less than 10%. This is both good and bad because I am much more conservative than I used to be with my trades but it also cuts my profitability. So I have finally quit using the more volatile pairs with my range trading. We will see how it affects me over the long haul though.
  • #4,190
  • Jul 2, 2011 5:12pm Jul 2, 2011 5:12pm
Quoting nanningbob
Just a further note, attached is my currency evaluations for volatility. This is my newest update and it may surprise you to find out the 6 of the top 9 volatile pairs involve the EURO. I was surprised at how volatile the EUR/CHF had become so volatile currencies will need a different set of numbers giving more room for the entry. I now am going to rate currencies by volatility from numbers 1-6. I hope this info will give you insight into what pairs you may want to countertrade now. See attachment.
Bob,
Many thanks for ths work, it is very useful in this times.
  • #4,191
  • Jul 2, 2011 6:39pm Jul 2, 2011 6:39pm
Quoting trustdom
Bob,
Many thanks for ths work, it is very useful in this times.
Hi BOB

Regarding the Volatility table I notice you are using 2008 and 2009 data. Do you think data from that period is still relevant to today's market?

Have you considered using mataf volatility utility (http://www.mataf.net/en/tools/02-01-volatility), it is quite good and you can set the period yourself. Please have a look and let us know what you think.

Kind regards
  • #4,192
  • Jul 2, 2011 7:50pm Jul 2, 2011 7:50pm
Quoting astral77
Hi BOB

Regarding the Volatility table I notice you are using 2008 and 2009 data. Do you think data from that period is still relevant to today's market?

Have you considered using mataf volatility utility (http://www.mataf.net/en/tools/02-01-volatility), it is quite good and you can set the period yourself. Please have a look and let us know what you think.

Kind regards
I showed both to show worst case scenario, Oct. 2008 and then its volatility since then. My volatility is simply based on the high and low since that time. I am most concerned in how a currency ranges so I can trade its range or counter trade it. I think it is useful to know that the EURO has a far greater range now than in the past. Many news stories are overly negative towards the dollar when in fact it has been very stable and remains more in the middle of the currencies. I also was surprised that the GBP has pairs that are not as volatile as compared to the others. It used to be GBP pairs were always the most volatile.

The website you sent only goes up to 99 weeks, so gives you less than 2 years data. I wanted to know what a currency was doing now as compared to my old data before the big crash. From my data you can be warned about the EURO and how it has changed but not from the website you sent. That is the difference. This data ought to just jump out at you. 6 of the top 9 spots are occupied by the EURO, 3 by the CHF, 2 by USD, JPY and GBP, and 1 each for NZD, AUD, CAD. That is a significant data warning about trading the EURO. If you are range trading or counter trading you need to know which currencies are probably going to give you the biggest DD when a big news story happens now.

My data also shows that all 9 top spots, 10 if I included the gbp/nzd, involve a European currency pair. #10/11 is the aud/usd, thank you China for buying everything you can in Australia, and then 3 of the next 4 are from Europe again. So 13 of the top 14 spots are occupied by Euro currencies. That is telling you something and warns you to beware of getting too involved in European pairs. If you love volatility there it is.
  • #4,193
  • Jul 2, 2011 8:25pm Jul 2, 2011 8:25pm
Quoting nanningbob
I showed both to show worst case scenario...If you love volatility there it is.
Thanks very much for that comprehensive reply. As you mentioned markets keep changing and we should be aware how a pair was behaving few years ago is very much different to how it behaves now.

kind regards
  • #4,194
  • Jul 7, 2011 5:39am Jul 7, 2011 5:39am
Hi Astral, how many times have you had to use a manual stoploss on any of your positions this year?
  • #4,195
  • Jul 7, 2011 7:07pm Jul 7, 2011 7:07pm
Quoting Frodog
Hi Astral, how many times have you had to use a manual stoploss on any of your positions this year?
Hello my friend

To be honest with you I have not counted. Go to my last set of results and you can see for yourself. The reason I post my results in xls format is to enable people to analyze the data any way they wish.

The number of using SL is not important, however, you have touched on an important point and that is at what point do you use the SL rather than wait for recovery to break even (BE). At the beginning I used to think that I should use the recovery levels till BE. However, I had asked Bob on a number of occasions and his answer was that the use of SL is up to the individual trader (i.e. very much subjective).

For example you are in L3 recovery and you need a 100 pip retrace to break even, however, the price is stuck in a 35 pip channel (i.e. it goes up 35 pips then comes down 35 pips) due to any reason such as important S/R level, etc. In this case you are better off taking the 35 pip in L3 and then enter another L3 trade and repeat few times and recover your loss this way rather than wait for a full 100 pip retrace which may never happen.

Another scenario is that your L1 is down by say 450 pips and you L2 by 200 and the price is then stuck in a narrow range for few weeks or months even. What to do in this case?

This is again very subjective and up to the individual trader. You may hang on for longer hoping for a good retrace to BE. You may decide to use SL during a good profitable month using the profits from other trades to offset and close this bad trade or you may use a combination of the above options.

IMHO the importance of adequate finance is critical in trading this system successfully. When my account was in large DD I used to limit and cease taking new trades till my DD position had improved somewhat in order to limit the floating DD. THIS WAS A BIG MISTAKE. The way i use this system there are a large number of frequent small profitable trades with occasional large losing trades. That is why with this approach the trader must carry on trading and entering new trades regardless of the floating DD.

Finally, during the last six months I had over 300 level one trades, around 60 Level 2 trades, around 20 Level 3 trades, 5 level 4 trades and 1 level 5 trade. I hope you have found the above of some use.

Kind Regards
  • #4,196
  • Jul 7, 2011 8:14pm Jul 7, 2011 8:14pm
Quoting astral77
Hello my friend

To be honest with you I have not counted. Go to my last set of results and you can see for yourself. The reason I post my results in xls format is to enable people to analyze the data any way they wish.

The number of using SL is not important, however, you have touched on an important point and that is at what point do you use the SL rather than wait for recovery to break even (BE). At the beginning I used to think that I should use the recovery levels till BE. However, I had asked Bob on a number of occasions and his answer was...
Excellent response, I concur. Learning to counter trade is part following rules and part intuition. You see by price action you are not going to get the BE all at once so you take it a piece at a time. I am really having good success so far with 10.0 recovery. I used my 3rd level twice now this week to reduce my lot sizes instead of waiting for BE. Both times they were the right move. Instead of facing 3 levels totaling .10 commitment I used my .05 profit to eliminate my .03 lot deficit. I now have .04 committed and waiting for price to move that commitment to BE or I can reenter a 3rd level again and try to wipe out the .04 If I had not done that my .05 level had gone back to the negative and would be waiting for it to go positive again OR facing a bigger DD. So dont be afraid to take those BE when they show up. It is better to take a BE and make your total lot sizes smaller than to see if you can get more and dont. You can go to my 60x90 to see my examples. I am thinking of having a thread just for recovery trades, live.
  • #4,197
  • Jul 7, 2011 10:59pm Jul 7, 2011 10:59pm
Quoting astral77
Hello my friend

To be honest with you I have not counted. Go to my last set of results and you can see for yourself. The reason I post my results in xls format is to enable people to analyze the data any way they wish.

The number of using SL is not important, however, you have touched on an important point and that is at what point do you use the SL rather than wait for recovery to break even (BE). At the beginning I used to think that I should use the recovery levels till BE. However, I had asked Bob on a number of occasions and his answer was...
Thanks for the reply. I especially like the 2 points you make about recognizing when a recovery trade is ranging, therefor taking profit on recovery trade, then re-entering at next signal. I should of done this on my L3 trades that I entered to early. They went into profit but are now negative. Secondly, not to stop trading even when DD is building.
  • #4,198
  • Jul 11, 2011 12:30am Jul 11, 2011 12:30am
I can only confirm Astral's findings. I too once stopped trading to deal with drawdown, only to realize I would have dealt with it a lot quicker if I would have continued trading. Just make sure you don't over expose yourself to a particular currency.

Like Bob said earlier, better watch out for those euro pairs. EURCHF and EURJPY look good for a buy if you just look at the NB5.3 rules. If you look at the fundamentals (problems in Italy coming to the surface) though, it looks like the euro may drop a bit before any kind of retrace is due. Each to his own but I'm not touching those pairs.
  • #4,199
  • Jul 11, 2011 4:51am Jul 11, 2011 4:51am
Thanks very much guys. In reality we have to thank BOB, because I am just repeating what he has told us. One thing which I feel we do neglect int his thread is trader Psychology which IMHO is just as important as the other aspects of the system.

For instance the point regarding trading even if you are in deep DD due to some pairs is of utmost importance, because if your DD is not decreasing week after week those small profits from other trades ensure that despair does NOT set in. for example even when my DD reached $900 at one point and was hovering around $600 mark for a number of weeks the other trades were still bringing in around $50 per week in profit. This demonstrates the need to keep the lot sizes down and have adequate reserves to ensure there is plenty of margin to keep you safe.

Kind regards
  • #4,200
  • Jul 11, 2011 6:37am Jul 11, 2011 6:37am
Quoting astral77
Thanks very much guys. In reality we have to thank BOB, because I am just repeating what he has told us. One thing which I feel we do neglect int his thread is trader Psychology which IMHO is just as important as the other aspects of the system.

For instance the point regarding trading even if you are in deep DD due to some pairs is of utmost importance, because if your DD is not decreasing week after week those small profits from other trades ensure that despair does NOT set in. for example even when my DD reached $900 at one point and was hovering...
You got it right.
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