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Order Flow - Achieving the mindset

  • #2,061
  • Jun 26, 2011 8:49pm Jun 26, 2011 8:49pm
Quoting OGW
I think it's possible (only thinking, only a possibility) that rallies in the eur/usd will be sold from now on regardless of the result of the Greek vote and further bail -out as investors becomes more and more convinced that Greek will default one way or another. I mean the first bail-out did not work why a second would? There were a lot of talks and promises of solutions but in the end there hasn't been I believe any substantial changes to the form of this bail-out.
Sure I really don`t see much headway for Greece either in the long-run, but currently the market is scared stiff of a credit event, and if that can be averted for now..even for a few months, it will be a sigh of relief, and the market can focus on other things. However, I wouldn`t count on selling rallies just yet, since the market may just decide to put Greece to the backburner as it treads water until it starts showing signs of serious risk developing.

Regards,
xXTrizzleXx
  • #2,062
  • Edited 9:04pm Jun 26, 2011 8:53pm | Edited 9:04pm
Quoting xXTrizzleXx
Spot on with what I was thinking, but I was just curious a to why real money was buying..was it due to speculation of repatriation, or repatriation indeed, for I remember reading an article not too long ago claiming that repatriations were minimal. Been a bit on my mind ever since as to whether it was just a speculative fueled move or not.



Slick doesn`t begin to describe! I was hoping for a dip to get filled, but didn`t expect it to rocket down so sharply. I`m doing some reading though, and depending on the reasons for the rocketing down,...
Well real money was buying for real I think, I don't think they were speculating. I think it's more leveraged accounts doing the speculating on anticipation of real money and capital flows, and covering positions going against them. They are the ones who always overextend it.

As soon as I saw it gap up so early and stall around the 20 area then start getting shoved down into the trailing stops, I had to take profit on what I had... I took 47 pips on it. I think this right here also might be a fade for now if I don't see some more follow through... we are close to the 4100 though so I may wait on that.
  • #2,063
  • Jun 26, 2011 9:03pm Jun 26, 2011 9:03pm
Quoting Monroe
Well real money was buying for real I think, I don't think they were speculating. I think it's more leveraged accounts doing the speculating on anticipation of real money and capital flows, and covering positions going against them.
Actually, coming to think about it, I`m now seeing it was simply real money work involved indeed. I also see little follow through, and it`s giving my little baby position at 1.4130 a bit of air to breath. I actually had one right at 1.4105 ahead of the barrier but I almost pissed myself when Watanabe & Co. shoved it down in such a hasty and unmannerly fashion..I feared it would pop, so I moved it lol.

Quoting Monroe
As soon as I saw it gap up so early and stall around the 20 area then start getting shoved down into the trailing stops, I had to take profit on what I had... I took 47 pips on it. I think this right here also might be a fade for now if I don't see some more follow through... we are close to the 4100 though so I may wait on that.
I`d say it was a good call on your part..could have been something else fishy going on. Don`t really have that much confidence in 1.4100 anymore, so I`m eyeing the lows if I have to enter again.

Regards,
xXTrizzleXx
  • #2,064
  • Jun 26, 2011 9:09pm Jun 26, 2011 9:09pm
Quoting xXTrizzleXx
Actually, coming to think about it, I`m now seeing it was simply real money work involved indeed. I also see little follow through, and it`s giving my little baby position at 1.4130 a bit of air to breath. I actually had one right at 1.4105 ahead of the barrier but I almost pissed myself when Watanabe & Co. shoved it down in such a hasty and unmannerly fashion..I feared it would pop, so I moved it lol.



I`d say it was a good call on your part..could have been something else fishy going on. Don`t really have that much confidence in 1.4100...
Good stuff.. I heard about Soros running his mouth in the Telegraph and we took out the stops under the lows, so if we don't see follow through past the 4100 barrier, I'd say it will reverse, but who knows what the big guns will do, they may try and take it down, but I don't think it will be a huge break ahead of the votes...

last time we went under 4100 we saw heavy buying after it cleared those barriers and we have more bids rumored at the 4075, big stops below.
  • #2,065
  • Jun 26, 2011 9:13pm Jun 26, 2011 9:13pm
Quoting xXTrizzleXx
Sure I really don`t see much headway for Greece either in the long-run, but currently the market is scared
xXTrizzleXx
Hi xXTrizzleXx and thank you for your comment.
  • #2,066
  • Jun 26, 2011 9:51pm Jun 26, 2011 9:51pm
Can`t read the play too well so I`m out for now but closely watching..
  • #2,067
  • Jun 26, 2011 9:52pm Jun 26, 2011 9:52pm
Excellent conversation trizzle and monroe. I like reading stuff like this, it helps me I think.
  • #2,068
  • Jun 26, 2011 9:58pm Jun 26, 2011 9:58pm
Well, G/U broke it's may low last week and A/U did the same this morning so E/U might as well follow shortly? Technically at least, I think it's an important event.
  • #2,069
  • Jun 26, 2011 10:28pm Jun 26, 2011 10:28pm
Quoting Jimmy Jones
Excellent conversation trizzle and monroe. I like reading stuff like this, it helps me I think.
cool glad it helps.
  • #2,070
  • Jun 26, 2011 10:29pm Jun 26, 2011 10:29pm
Quoting OGW
Well, G/U broke it's may low last week and A/U did the same this morning so E/U might as well follow shortly? Technically at least, I think it's an important event.
we shall see, but I haven't seen a good break on either of them yet.
  • #2,071
  • Jun 26, 2011 10:53pm Jun 26, 2011 10:53pm
Quoting Jimmy Jones
Excellent conversation trizzle and monroe. I like reading stuff like this, it helps me I think.
Quoting OGW
Hi xXTrizzleXx and thank you for your comment.
No probs, glad it helps.

If any of you have ever played Poker, then sometimes you get this feeling. It`s the feeling that comes after putting in a substantial majority into the pot, thinking you have a read on the player, and he`s going to fold, but then he re-raises you 3x. I just got that feeling..it made me take a short a riskless short at 1.4135, but I accidentally closed the positon If this thing breaks to target the huge stops to the downside, I will pull my hair out lol.

Be careful out there,
xXTrizzleXx
  • #2,072
  • Jun 26, 2011 10:58pm Jun 26, 2011 10:58pm
Quoting xXTrizzleXx
No probs, glad it helps.

If any of you have ever played Poker, then sometimes you get this feeling. It`s the feeling that comes after putting in a substantial majority into the pot, thinking you have a read on the player, and he`s going to fold, but then he re-raises you 3x. I just got that feeling..it made me take a short a riskless short at 1.4135, but I accidentally closed the positon If this thing breaks to target the huge stops to the downside, I will pull my hair out lol.

Be careful out there,
xXTrizzleXx
I think it might pull a slick maneuver if it goes to the downside...

pull in the sellers, sell into the stops above the consolidation to the 50 then dump?

of course it always helps when they get some stupid news that doesn't mean much that takes it up (down) on a knee-jerk then they use the liquidity for the real move.
  • #2,073
  • Jun 26, 2011 11:02pm Jun 26, 2011 11:02pm
Quoting Monroe
I think it might pull a slick maneuver if it goes to the downside...

pull in the sellers, take there stops above the 50 then dump?
Odd enough I`m not even sure it might reach that high before dumping..as soon as Europe/London come online and read that the 5 MP`s which Papandreou needs for his majority have wavered then I get the feeling it will be offered like whoa...race against time kinda deal until you get the smarmy one that says time`s up and everyone piles in...

Could very well be wrong but something feels amiss.
  • #2,074
  • Jun 26, 2011 11:05pm Jun 26, 2011 11:05pm
Quoting xXTrizzleXx
Odd enough I`m not even sure it might reach that high before dumping..as soon as Europe/London come online and read that the 5 MP`s which Papandreou needs for his majority have wavered then I get the feeling it will be offered like whoa...race against time kinda deal until you get the smarmy one that says time`s up and everyone piles in...

Could very well be wrong but something feels amiss.
that could very well be too, we'll see, I'm getting ready...

but I must say I am still going with my fade this crap on a sunday night at this point so I'll be watching how it acts if it breaks 4100 and hits rumored ACB bids if they're still there...
  • #2,075
  • Jun 26, 2011 11:09pm Jun 26, 2011 11:09pm
I'm seeing gaps still intact on E/C & G/C which could make things interesting upon thy European open.
  • #2,076
  • Jun 26, 2011 11:26pm Jun 26, 2011 11:26pm
Quoting EmeraldEyes
I'm seeing gaps still intact on E/C & G/C which could make things interesting upon thy European open.
indeed they do...
  • #2,077
  • Jun 27, 2011 12:05am Jun 27, 2011 12:05am
Looks like every news popping-up bad news for EZ, so much people already in short position, seems like bearish move discounted pretty fast right now. May be the barrier around 4000 could give a nice surprise when shaking time comes.
  • #2,078
  • Jun 27, 2011 2:11am Jun 27, 2011 2:11am
Quoting Monroe
I think it might pull a slick maneuver if it goes to the downside...

pull in the sellers, sell into the stops above the consolidation to the 50 then dump?

of course it always helps when they get some stupid news that doesn't mean much that takes it up (down) on a knee-jerk then they use the liquidity for the real move.
Spot on. Let's see how today pans out..wonder if my EUR/GBP leg will make it past the trials and tribulations of today lol.

Good luck out there,
xXTrizzleXx
  • #2,079
  • Jun 27, 2011 2:40am Jun 27, 2011 2:40am
Quoting EmeraldEyes
I'm seeing gaps still intact on E/C & G/C which could make things interesting upon thy European open.
  • #2,080
  • Jun 27, 2011 3:09am Jun 27, 2011 3:09am
Quoting xXTrizzleXx
Spot on. Let's see how today pans out..wonder if my EUR/GBP leg will make it past the trials and tribulations of today lol.

Good luck out there,
xXTrizzleXx
tricky...
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