Order Flow - Achieving the mindset | Page 103 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Mindset Mindset Mindset!!! 19 replies

How to flow with the order flow? 26 replies

Maintain Your Mindset, by Linda Bradford Raschke 3 replies

Order Flow - Achieving the mindset - Part 2 37 replies

A new mindset 0 replies

Attachments: Order Flow - Achieving the mindset
Exit Attachments

Order Flow - Achieving the mindset

  • #2,041
  • Jun 26, 2011 12:15am Jun 26, 2011 12:15am
Quoting xXTrizzleXx
Heya guys,

There is definitely a lot of coin to be made in these next few weeks, and I feel like it will be an accurate assessment of everything I've put together over the past few months.

Near term, I'm bullish EUR. We have a barrier at 1.4100, but the reserve manager bids, like Monroe pointed out should prove to be a great hindrance to the downside, making it a barrier I don't want to push into. I'm looking for a dip early Sunday to build a position, and then a move upwards to liquidate into weak shorts, which should be easy...
Seems like a plan Trizzle... I don't think I can be bearish enough for the Euro to make an extended break past 1.4 unless they don't meet requirements for the loan (which I am doubting), the ECB pulls a surprise with policy from inflation pressures easing, and equities/risk take a dive... though I would think this would all coincide almost around the same time, and it's on the edge it seems.

If you have a good reason to believe in a positive outcome, this would be around the area to start looking to build long positions (though I think it hard not to see them go for the lows once more), however I can only go for short term right now until I get a bit of a clearer picture and a bit of positive news. I guess I am just not experienced enough to trust a longer term view yet, but this is how I am seeing it as of today.
  • #2,042
  • Jun 26, 2011 12:26am Jun 26, 2011 12:26am
Quoting Monroe
Seems like a plan Trizzle... I don't think I can be bearish enough for the Euro to make an extended break past 1.4 unless they don't meet requirements for the loan (which I am doubting), the ECB pulls a surprise with policy, and equities/risk take a dive... though I would think this would all coincide almost around the same time, and it's on the edge it seems.
If the former two were to happen, I wouldn't even waste time with EUR/USD. I'd jump on the bandwagon with EmeraldEyes and short EUR/CHF till infinity!

Quote
If you have a good reason to believe in a positive outcome, this would be around the area to start looking to build long positions (though I think it hard not to see them go for the lows once more), however I can only go for short term right now until I get a bit of a clearer picture and a bit of positive news. I guess I am just not experienced enough to trust a longer term view yet, but this is how I am seeing it as of today.

The lows do seem tempting, I will agree with you there - I'm just thinking with participants unwilling to establish positions/commit liquidity ahead of the event, the trailing stops to the upside are like guaranteed earnings, rather than having to work through the sovereign interest at 1.4125 down, then the barrier at 1.4100. I'll be watching the action closely around that level to determine my course of action. I doubt they'd be able to bust it in one go, so I should have some time to plot my moves. If they do break it, then I'll try again at the lows at 1.4070. Don't see it going much further down to May's lows, with a barrier at 1.4000 as well.

Also, your calendar has the parliamentary vote for Wednesday 29th June, but I think it's actually Tuesday 28th. Just a heads up.

Regards,
xXTrizzleXx
  • #2,043
  • Edited 12:57am Jun 26, 2011 12:31am | Edited 12:57am
Quoting xXTrizzleXx
If the former two were to happen, I wouldn't even waste time with EUR/USD. I'd jump on the bandwagon with EmeraldEyes and short EUR/CHF till infinity!
lol I am pissed I didn't jump on this bandwagon when we got that pullback ahead of the 1.2 barrier... but Instead I went for quick cash and tried to be a super hero and take a long... then decided to chill on the swissy stuff... and now look at it. Good shit EmeraldEyes...

Quote
The lows do seem tempting, I will agree with you there - I'm just thinking with participants unwilling to establish positions/commit liquidity ahead of the event, the trailing stops to the upside are like guaranteed earnings, rather than having to work through the sovereign interest at 1.4125 down, then the barrier at 1.4100. I'll be watching the action closely around that level to...

I have to say, I agree 100% with you and I hope you're right... I have a little something on at 4149 from late friday...

Yes, forexlive said 28th, but I think they're mistaken as the Reuters news says the 29th and the 30th as well as a recent article published on reuters.com... I will double check on Monday.

We also have China again saying they are backing Euro debt... forgot about that news today.
  • #2,044
  • Jun 26, 2011 1:00am Jun 26, 2011 1:00am
Quote
Yea, I am enjoying this volatility. I know there's big stops below 4075 and the below the May lows towards the 200DMA... it could get interesting... we'll see what happens.

I'm also watching the loonie...

Just to specify I meant VERY long term, like months away from now. I've spent the last 2 weekends trying to get some kind idea of where we could be headed on a large scale. I probably shouldn't even have mentioned it. I got a lot of kinks to work out in getting a very long term understanding.

You'd think it would have been easier than dealing with short term attention deficit market flows.

My shorter term outlook is pretty simple. On the bullish side I'll be looking for a resurgence of risk appetite on the Aussie provided Greek business goes good. I've been noticing a lot of demand for their bonds in the news. The market hasn't showed it yet though. I contribute this to fear of entering the market ahead of a potential Greece default. From what little I've read on the wires it seems sovereign dollar sellers have been away from the market on risk aversion as well.

On the bearish side. If things go to hell and Greece defaults I'll be shorting the euro. That one is easy. Go go gadget contagion fears!
Cautiously optimistic. . .
  • #2,045
  • Jun 26, 2011 1:06am Jun 26, 2011 1:06am
Quoting Tact1cal
Just to specify I meant VERY long term, like months away from now. I've spent the last 2 weekends trying to get some kind idea of where we could be headed on a large scale. I probably shouldn't even have mentioned it. I got a lot of kinks to work out in getting a very long term understanding.
I think it easily has potential to hit 1.35-1.36, longer term I am kind of bearish as well, just shorter term not yet... also my long term is not worth a shit, but if the things I mentioned happen, yea.. I'll be pretty damn bearish rather quickly.

Quote

You'd think it would have been easier than dealing with short term attention deficit market flows.

I am much better at this, plus I enjoy quick money, but I am working on getting down with swings and longer term.

Quote
My shorter term outlook is pretty simple. On the bullish side I'll be looking for a resurgence of risk appetite on the Aussie provided Greek business goes good. I've been noticing a lot of demand for their bonds in the news. The market hasn't showed it yet though. I contribute this to fear of entering the market ahead of a potential Greece default. From what little I've read on the wires it seems sovereign dollar sellers have been away from the market on risk aversion as well.

On the bearish side. If things go to hell and Greece defaults I'll...

sounds good to me... I also keep my eye on s&p and oil...
  • #2,046
  • Jun 26, 2011 1:09am Jun 26, 2011 1:09am
Quote
I think it easily has potential to hit 1.35-1.36, longer term I am kind of bearish as well, just shorter term, not yet... also my long term is not worth a shit.

LOL I know how you feel.
Cautiously optimistic. . .
  • #2,047
  • Jun 26, 2011 1:11am Jun 26, 2011 1:11am
Quoting Monroe
lol I am pissed I didn't jump on this bandwagon when we got that pullback ahead of the 1.2 barrier... but Instead I went for quick cash and tried to be a super hero and take a long... then decided to chill on the swissy stuff... and now look at it. Good shit EmeraldEyes...
What hurts my heart the most is I had some positions from 1.2650..and I liquidated at 1.2200ish because I thought that Greece had been swept to the backburner for now..and it was all interest rates..boy was I wrong lol. Good thing that was when I was trading demo..if it was live I'd have pulled some hairs by now.

Quote
I have to say, I agree 100% with you and I hope you're right... I have a little something on at 4149 from late friday...
Good stuff! Looks like I'm not alone...

Quoting Tact1cal
My shorter term outlook is pretty simple. On the bullish side I'll be looking for a resurgence of risk appetite on the Aussie provided Greek business goes good. I've been noticing a lot of demand for their bonds in the news. The market hasn't showed it yet though. I contribute this to fear of entering the market ahead of a potential Greece default. From what little I've read on the wires it seems sovereign dollar sellers have been away from the market on risk aversion as well.

On the bearish side. If things go to hell and Greece defaults I'll...
Definitely with you on the AUD/USD...waiting for July inflation report before making my move..can't wait to taste the swap on that baby..

Regards,
xXTrizzleXx
  • #2,048
  • Jun 26, 2011 1:13am Jun 26, 2011 1:13am
I think I need to work on a better understanding of economics, politics, etc and how they tend to play out and effect markets for longer term stuff.

On AUD/USD with such an interest rate differential, it seems like waiting for a big risk off unwinding event and then just going long on yield when risk gets back on seems pretty logical and simple... is it too simple? (I mean as long as the underlying factors for that do not change)
  • #2,049
  • Jun 26, 2011 1:26am Jun 26, 2011 1:26am
Quoting Monroe
I think I need to work on a better understanding of economics, politics, etc and how they tend to play out and effect markets for longer term stuff.

On AUD/USD with such an interest rate differential, it seems like waiting for a big risk off unwinding event and then just going long on yield when risk gets back on seems pretty logical and simple... is it too simple? (I mean as long as the underlying factors for that do not change)
I'd say it's as viable a plan as any. But you can always benefit from the yield in the meanwhile waiting for said risk-off event to happen. Then you can be the first to unwind..maybe even ride the unwind down, and then long it at the bottom like you said..make the pair your servant kinda thing lol! If Greece clears up then I see good prospects for it, especially in the near-term. However, we have been seeing signs of global economic growth slowdowns in China, the US and the EZ (except Germany of course ) so if the market gets jittery over that..you may very well have your unwind on a platter.

Regards,
xXTrizzleXx
  • #2,050
  • Jun 26, 2011 1:26am Jun 26, 2011 1:26am
Quoting xXTrizzleXx
If the former two were to happen, I wouldn't even waste time with EUR/USD. I'd jump on the bandwagon with EmeraldEyes and short EUR/CHF till infinity!
There's still room. Join me by picking a major and put Chf after it. Parity or bust! lol jk
  • #2,051
  • Jun 26, 2011 1:29am Jun 26, 2011 1:29am
Quoting xXTrizzleXx
I'd say it's as viable a plan as any. But you can always benefit from the yield in the meanwhile waiting for said risk-off event to happen. Then you can be the first to unwind..maybe even ride the unwind down, and then long it at the bottom like you said..make the pair your servant kinda thing lol! If Greece clears up then I see good prospects for it, especially in the near-term. However, we have been seeing signs of global economic growth slowdowns in China, the US and the EZ (except Germany of course ) so if the market gets jittery...
LOL you got skillzz bro Trizzle... thats not making it a servent, thats making it your bitch....

Your right with the global slowdown fears, that's actually one of the main reasons I am getting Euro bearish
  • #2,052
  • Jun 26, 2011 1:32am Jun 26, 2011 1:32am
Quoting EmeraldEyes
There's still room. Join me by picking a major and put Chf after it. Parity or bust! lol jk

Are you guys watching the sterling? I got some recent shorts on the Gbp/Usd last week that are holding up.
I wasn't paying attention to the sterling actually with the market focus mainly on the Euro, but now that school's out, I'm in England for a short holiday, and you can feel the sentiment in the air that sterling has absolutely nothing going for it. MPC has lost a hawk and is favoring more QE, when inflation is already nearing 5%..they're even striking like the PIIGS nations! I'm playing it on EUR/GBP though..got a long holding up pretty well there.

Quoting Monroe
LOL you got skillzz bro Trizzle... thats not making it a servent, thats making it your bitch....

Your right with the global slowdown fears, that's actually one of the main reasons I am getting Euro bearish
LOL

Regards,
xXTrizzleXx
  • #2,053
  • Jun 26, 2011 1:41am Jun 26, 2011 1:41am
I think we can agree on something big happening on the E/U this summer.

My concern is that the majority of SNB's holdings are Euros (55%), 2nd being USD (25%). How would a bank go about hedging against this risk though? Buying more USD? Selling Euro rallies?

SNB’s Danthine: Bank Had Big Fx Losses; Potential For More

Quote
The only option, he said is for the central bank to “diversify its
risks as efficiently as possible with a view to limiting the exchange
rate, credit and concentration risks of its foreign currency
investments.”
.

Q1 Foreign Exchange Reserves (SNB.ch)
  • #2,054
  • Jun 26, 2011 1:49am Jun 26, 2011 1:49am
Quoting xXTrizzleXx
I wasn't paying attention to the sterling actually with the market focus mainly on the Euro, but now that school's out, I'm in England for a short holiday, and you can feel the sentiment in the air that sterling has absolutely nothing going for it. MPC has lost a hawk and is favoring more QE, when inflation is already nearing 5%..they're even striking like the PIIGS nations! I'm playing it on EUR/GBP though..got a long holding up pretty well there.

Regards,
xXTrizzleXx
Seems like I get shaken out of E/G when I play it or get stuck on the wrong side. Gbp has no good news. Read some bank forecasts of a sub-1.53 Gbp/Usd by the end of '11.
  • #2,055
  • Edited 2:42am Jun 26, 2011 2:32am | Edited 2:42am
Just simply looking at all the charts, you can easily see this is all about team swissy right now, and has been... after the earthquakes were nice Yen plays... quite amazing when I look at all this and think back fundamentally and structurally...
  • #2,056
  • Jun 26, 2011 7:50pm Jun 26, 2011 7:50pm
Quoting Monroe
Just simply looking at all the charts, you can easily see this is all about team swissy right now, and has been... after the earthquakes were nice Yen plays... quite amazing when I look at all this and think back fundamentally and structurally...
Just curious..what would you have pinned as the real reason for its appreciation afterwards?

Some heavy action ahead of 1.4100..Mrs.Watanabe sure is a powerful lady, that`s what she is!

Good luck out there today,
xXTrizzleXx
  • #2,057
  • Jun 26, 2011 8:28pm Jun 26, 2011 8:28pm
I think it's possible (only thinking, only a possibility) that rallies in the eur/usd will be sold from now on regardless of the result of the Greek vote and further bail -out as investors becomes more and more convinced that Greek will default one way or another. I mean the first bail-out did not work why a second would? There were a lot of talks and promises of solutions but in the end there hasn't been I believe any substantial changes to the form of this bail-out.
  • #2,058
  • Jun 26, 2011 8:31pm Jun 26, 2011 8:31pm
Quoting xXTrizzleXx
Just curious..what would you have pinned as the real reason for its appreciation afterwards?

Some heavy action ahead of 1.4100..Mrs.Watanabe sure is a powerful lady, that`s what she is!

Good luck out there today,
xXTrizzleXx

For the Yen appreciation right after the earthquake? I remember it was a knee jerk reaction which was sold into heavily. I wasn't paying much attention to the Yen pairs at the time, but I checked it out right after it happened.

From what I remember, the market was short JPY and def. long dollar... real money was buying JPY all the way down until it cracked the bottom. So real money, positioning adjustment, and possibly specs switching and anticipating the real money buying and going for the stops and options structures under the market, while though's who were still short covering fueling it even more.

What do you think?
  • #2,059
  • Jun 26, 2011 8:34pm Jun 26, 2011 8:34pm
BTW, did you see what happened in early interbank trading? those slick bastards....
  • #2,060
  • Jun 26, 2011 8:43pm Jun 26, 2011 8:43pm
Quoting Monroe
For the Yen appreciation right after the earthquake? I remember it was a knee jerk reaction which was sold into heavily. I wasn't paying much attention to the Yen pairs at the time, but I checked it out right after it happened.

From what I remember, the market was short JPY and real money was buying JPY all the way down until it cracked the bottom. So real money, positioning adjustment, and possibly specs switching and anticipating the real money buying and going for the stops and options structures under the market, while though's who were still...
Spot on with what I was thinking, but I was just curious a to why real money was buying..was it due to speculation of repatriation, or repatriation indeed, for I remember reading an article not too long ago claiming that repatriations were minimal. Been a bit on my mind ever since as to whether it was just a speculative fueled move or not.

Quoting Monroe
BTW, did you see what happened in early interbank trading? those slick bastards....
Slick doesn`t begin to describe! I was hoping for a dip to get filled, but didn`t expect it to rocket down so sharply. I`m doing some reading though, and depending on the reasons for the rocketing down, somebody may have made a timing blunder...

Regards,
xXTrizzleXx
2 traders viewing now