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Trading Price Pivots

  • #241
  • Jun 25, 2011 1:43am Jun 25, 2011 1:43am
Quoting il brigante
Got stopped usdcad short.

I can see there many "experts after the facts" on this blog.
Comments, theories, support, resistance fibo, pips in a week and nothing else.

All BALLSHIT excuse my french. All analysis are useless if your timing is wrong.

I have not seen yet a trade entered and posted and then closed with a decent gain pips. But what I heard is the amount of writing knowledge accumulated to support the lack of success in trading.

If we were successful traders we would not be on this blog. That why I think is important to work...
Great post IB
I hope to take part in this thread as the style appeals to me but it is different to anything I have done before - actually I have never thought of pivot trading except as per Bill Williams alligator system which is too mechanical for me. I can assure you I will be making lots of mistakes but thats how I learn. Also I learn more from people posting their losing trades rather than from their winning ones. Its only by analysing the losing ones that you learn something imho.
looking forward to next week when I plan to be more active
Loss of opportunity is preferable to loss of capital
  • #242
  • Jun 25, 2011 1:53am Jun 25, 2011 1:53am
Good on you mate.

As the weather there in Brisbane, is sunny here in Sydney but bloody cold, specially when the sun goes down.

Cheers
Il Brigante
  • #243
  • Jun 25, 2011 2:06am Jun 25, 2011 2:06am
Quoting il brigante
Good on you mate.

As the weather there in Brisbane, is sunny here in Sydney but bloody cold, specially when the sun goes down.

Cheers
Il Brigante
Sunny one day and perfect the next! (except for occasional major floods)
Actually its been a glorious winter week - crisp cool mornings with beautiful blue skies and sunny days - brekkie in the sun on the front deck. I really appreciate Aussie weather as I have have lived a lot in Europe in previous lives and remember all too well the gloomy winters.
I appreciate your posts and charts - learning from them
Loss of opportunity is preferable to loss of capital
  • #244
  • Jun 25, 2011 2:29am Jun 25, 2011 2:29am
Quoting Minka
Sunny one day and perfect the next! (except for occasional major floods)
Actually its been a glorious winter week - crisp cool mornings with beautiful blue skies and sunny days - brekkie in the sun on the front deck. I really appreciate Aussie weather as I have have lived a lot in Europe in previous lives and remember all too well the gloomy winters.
I appreciate your posts and charts - learning from them
You cannot beat it. I am from europe, lived in Italy and London, but sometime I miss it......

I am working on the charts and I would not be surprised next week to see strength in gbp followed by eur and weakness in chf. Of course events could have a say.

All the Best
Il Brigante
  • #245
  • Jun 25, 2011 3:02am Jun 25, 2011 3:02am
Quoting il brigante
Got stopped usdcad short.

As a mentioned in my post # 198 which I have not received any thoughts (only Porfirio has made an attempt), if you want to make this blog interesting place "your balls on the line".

Al The Best
Il Brigante
I surely agree with you IB, and I am glad that we are all finally on the same page. It generally takes a couple of weeks before anyone interested in any method would start applying it and showing it. Since we are now all ready, we can start as per your suggestions.
What I think we should do is have every Saturday some group analysis done, this way we will be able to prepare for the coming week.
No entries are to be posted without a corresponding chart(s) explaining the reason for taking the trade(s), with corresponding SL and TP (for those who want to place one). Updates on manual trailing stops are to be described as well.
For clarity’s sake, I would also like for all participants to post white charts instead of the dark ones.
I am still on my first coffee, so excuse me while I have some more and after that, I’ll come back with some analysis.
  • #246
  • Jun 25, 2011 3:11am Jun 25, 2011 3:11am
Quoting Chantalb
Yes you are right; I might have posted those a little too quickly without explaining them. I thought the pics were self explanatory.

Actually this is a setup Porfirio follows (he works with W1 4hr instead of D1 H1). I wanted to show him the importance of confluence between the different TFs and PPs.
Sometimes h1 can get too erratic for an entry on days just like today.

[color=black][font=Verdana]On the chart the red fib...
Yes, it definitely helps! Thanks!

So if I get that right, we just switch to a higher TF: We look for a price pivot high / low in the weekly TF and than we wait for the retracement in the 4 H. Now I looked a little bit more precisely than the first time and I see you already found your entry at the 61 % fib at 1,4320, right ? So you are now right in the trade ... or did you exit before the weekend ?

BTW ... nice weekend to everybody
  • #247
  • Jun 25, 2011 3:42am Jun 25, 2011 3:42am
Quoting Dortmunder
Yes, it definitely helps! Thanks!

So if I get that right, we just switch to a higher TF: We look for a price pivot high / low in the weekly TF and than we wait for the retracement in the 4 H. Now I looked a little bit more precisely than the first time and I see you already found your entry at the 61 % fib at 1,4320, right ? So you are now right in the trade ... or did you exit before the weekend ?

BTW ... nice weekend to everybody
Good morning Dortmunder,

No I did not exit... Had I been scalping I would have waited for 20pips, closed half of my position on that and then moved my SL to BE. I would have been out now. I gave up this kind of trading in December of last year. It was just too stressful...
I will be watching the developments very closely next week, and if the PA will not act as I’d like to see, I will certainly close it way before it gets to my risk limit per trade.
  • #248
  • Jun 25, 2011 4:26am Jun 25, 2011 4:26am
hello brigante

all operations that have done so far with this strategy I have posted

eur-usd, gbp-usd, eur-jpy, nzd-usd..... and next Monday gbp-cad, aus-cad

strategy is very simple and wonderful ...

about the TSL I ignored because I have not yet clearly this is something we will study this week

my English is bad and I did not understand very well and moves the SL Chantalb
  • #249
  • Jun 25, 2011 6:20am Jun 25, 2011 6:20am
Quoting porfirio
hello brigante

all operations that have done so far with this strategy I have posted

eur-usd, gbp-usd, eur-jpy, nzd-usd..... and next Monday gbp-cad, aus-cad

strategy is very simple and wonderful ...

about the TSL I ignored because I have not yet clearly this is something we will study this week

my English is bad and I did not understand very well and moves the SL Chantalb
Your english is better than mine. Do not worry, if I do not understand you I will ask you again, and please feel free to ask again if things are not clear.

All The Best
Il Brigante
  • #250
  • Jun 25, 2011 7:06am Jun 25, 2011 7:06am
Higher TF Analysis,
As I mentioned earlier I analyze yearly and QTR TFs. I also mentioned an area of balance between buyers and sellers. Generally when price trades above this level, this indicates a buyer’s market and vice versa. Now every TF has a different Balance Point. Below is a list of the diff BPs-
- Yearly (2011) = 1.3767
- 2nd QTR = 1.3543 (projected 3rd QTR @ 1.3996 but still incomplete)
- June = 1.4368 (projected July @ 1.4364 also incomplete)
- Next Week = 1.4317
- Daily = 1.4250 (holds for Sunday-Monday, Tuesday will have a diff one depending on Sunday-Monday price action)
I have plotted them on the first chart for you to see…
The way to calculate them is just as you would a regular pivot point (H+L+C)/3… but instead of using only the previous’ year data for instance I use 3 => 3yrs, 3QTR, 3Mths, 3Wks & 5days.
I also consider midpoints of candles (and their closes) as previously mentioned to IB.
Second Chart
I still see general weakness in this pair. Although I don’t like the fact that the last W1 candle had a higher low and is an inside bar. We have 4 days left on this month and I will continue being bearish until I see otherwise.
On the D1 TL chart, the magenta TL is more significant to me than the green one. What I expect to see next week if bearishness is to continue is a retrace back to the magenta TL that also comes close to the daily BP with an added 15 or so pips.
This is all I can do for today…
Good weekend to all of you
Chantal
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd bps.gif Size: 37 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd tl.gif Size: 39 KB
  • #251
  • Jun 25, 2011 11:04am Jun 25, 2011 11:04am
Chantal,

Nice thread you have going and may participate someday. Can you tell me where to get the pivot indicator on your daily chart that puts in the carets?

Also I noticed Daily bars vary from broker to broker?? I use Oanda MT4 and the Dailies are different from yours a little to a lot.. Seems to depend on when sessions are started maybe somewhere in MT4? I would imagine it better to have daily bars most traders have.

Thanks
  • #252
  • Jun 25, 2011 8:09pm Jun 25, 2011 8:09pm
Hi Chantalb
Thank for your time and sacrifice required to host his thread. It has been a hugh help to me. I like your teaching style, it is similar to another exellent trader on FF.
I would like to ask for clarification on your post 141. To paraphrase, you indicated you held both longer term Long & Short positions. Did you mean you held both Long & Short on the EU at the same time (hedging)? I know some currency investers who trade long term, do this type of trading.
thanks in advance
gmcc
  • #253
  • Jun 26, 2011 9:15am Jun 26, 2011 9:15am
Hi Chantel,

first I must say, thanks alot for the clear way you lay out your strategy.
and thanks again for sharing as that what pulls apart people from stars

anyway, i am going to start this system this week beginning market open tonight and onwards, I hope along the way, especially this week while im starting out, you will point potential setups out as you see them, so i can follow along and start to get the hang of it.

Again, many thanks to you, and i look forward to trading alongside you with this system
  • #254
  • Jun 26, 2011 2:16pm Jun 26, 2011 2:16pm
every day I feel better this strategy ... is pure price action ... I deleted until moving averages involving a delay in action of price.

see my entries (185 - 186-196 - 205) with this great strategy CHANTALB and compare the current price, a few days later
  • #255
  • Jun 26, 2011 2:17pm Jun 26, 2011 2:17pm
post 185 - 186- 196- 205- ....
  • #256
  • Jun 26, 2011 4:30pm Jun 26, 2011 4:30pm
hi ppl just checking my daily eur usd chart.
i hope im seeing this right, i have circled in a nice brown lol what im understanding so far is a pivot high, with a bearish confirmation candle, would this be a valid entry now for a short off a 1hr chart using the fibs rule. please let me know to see if im understanding correctly.

http://i52.tinypic.com/1znmzoo.jpg
  • #257
  • Jun 26, 2011 7:33pm Jun 26, 2011 7:33pm
This is what everybody should do:
gbpnzd long, in @ 1.9687. SL 1.9595. R 92 pips

The when you get out of you post another pic with the results in pips.
If you want to give your comment when you enter and when you exit, the better.

IB
  • #258
  • Jun 26, 2011 7:35pm Jun 26, 2011 7:35pm
Quoting il brigante
This is what everybody should do:
gbpnzd long, in @ 1.9687. SL 1.9595. R 92 pips

The when you get out of you post another pic with the results in pips.
If you want to give your comment when you enter and when you exit, the better.

IB
The pic
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpnzd H.jpg Size: 170 KB
  • #259
  • Jun 26, 2011 7:47pm Jun 26, 2011 7:47pm
eurnzd long, in 1.7562. SL 1.7449. R 113pips
it gapped at the opening, I bought it then.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurnzd h.jpg Size: 189 KB
  • #260
  • Jun 26, 2011 7:49pm Jun 26, 2011 7:49pm
gbpaud long, in @ 1.5223. SL 1.5172. R 51 pips
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpaud H.jpg Size: 170 KB
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