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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #26,161
  • Jun 24, 2011 6:01am Jun 24, 2011 6:01am
Quoting fti
Can't buy Euros, can't buy usd.
Have much kangaroos, as they high yields.
So just enjoy the yields.

regards
  • #26,162
  • Jun 24, 2011 10:43am Jun 24, 2011 10:43am
Quoting Troikaone1
Does ne1 have any idea what this thread stands for anymore? It just seems to exist for the sake of existing. It seems to be a General Discussion type of thread to just shoot the breeze. Perhaps FF should change the title or something.
Hi,
Whats the point you are trying to make?
I not getting it.

Is there anything wrong with a bunch of traders and friends , sit chatty with one another.
About markets , about life , about new born babes, about sun & stars, while when the chance arises we help another along the way to understanding?

On this thread , if you had taken liberty to peruse, you would had seen, me putting my life's work on the table , hoping help another who trades along. Now I am not in best of health, so we chatty along keep thread alive, while sharing some comaradie with one another. Like i said, the presentation is finished, long ago.

Also when ocassion arises I do check if some traders have initiated braching out. When I feel posibilities or erreonous mindset or MO i feel not advantages to trading , may step in to highlight.

On your first posting here you ask all of us shaft off and go elsewhere .
Whats your point? Whats it we do thats crawling up your chanel? Whats your agenda?
Would you be so kind as to show us your MO, and allow us shoot it down?
may make you a better trader, ultimately. If you are opened to that maybe we can show you a thing or two thats impeeding your ability to succeed. And for this thread may become relevant to you, for our existence.

faithfully.
  • #26,163
  • Jun 24, 2011 10:51am Jun 24, 2011 10:51am
Hi fti. I wanted to ask you a question, if you don't mind.

I never could get hold of a copy of Paper Money but I read What Has Government Done to Our Money, by Murray N. Rothbard, which explained the monetary system starting from when gold and silver were used (well, from before that too I think).

I was wondering if you'd every read this book and what you thought of it...

If you haven't read it then never mind, don't want to bother you.

Hope you are feeling OK tonight.

Rgds
Mark
  • #26,164
  • Edited 11:20am Jun 24, 2011 11:07am | Edited 11:20am
Quoting ukmanthailan
Hi fti. I wanted to ask you a question, if you don't mind.

I never could get hold of a copy of Paper Money but I read What Has Government Done to Our Money, by Murray N. Rothbard, which explained the monetary system starting from when gold and silver were used (well, from before that too I think).

I was wondering if you'd every read this book and what you thought of it...

If you haven't read it then never mind, don't want to bother you.

Hope you are feeling OK tonight.

Mark
Hi ukman,
nope had not caught up on my reading. In fact, slowed much on activities on that front.
On the issue of what govt is doing to the moneys.
I like stress point that, its not your money , its the govt's money.
As far as the govts are concerned its their resource to manage you. Their subjects.
And for govts that uses fiat money as their resource. is not even their money. Is systems money.

Gold standard was abandoned at bretton woods and later by the us nixon administration, because the supply of Gold was insufficient to finance rapid economic expansion and the adopting of a pegged currency system which later grew into a free floated market system facilitated added abilities to monetary and fiscal possibilities which was not available under the Gold Standard. Someone need finance a war, but without the money, thats difficult.

You see under the gold standard , printing of money was limited to the gold that could back the currency, as the money was fully convertable to Gold by ratio of supply. This impeeds the multiplyer effect that a fiat currency affords. Fiat currency has no tangable(physical)store of value, so all thats being traded is goodwill aka confidence. This the reasons why we so alert to country's economic figs. The figs affect confidence or lack of. Fiat currencies have possibilities go to zero if said countries cease to function. Currencies convertable for gold, when converted to Gold, has value elsewhere.

regards
  • #26,165
  • Jun 24, 2011 11:11am Jun 24, 2011 11:11am
Thanks for your comments, much appreciated.

As far as I remember from that book, one of his views was that fiat money allowed governments to redistribute wealth via inflation. There was a lot more to it than that but it's a while since I read it.

Cheers
  • #26,166
  • Edited 11:47am Jun 24, 2011 11:31am | Edited 11:47am
Quoting ukmanthailan
Thanks for your comments, much appreciated.

As far as I remember from that book, one of his views was that fiat money allowed governments to redistribute wealth via inflation. There was a lot more to it than that but it's a while since I read it.

Cheers
yes, ukman,
inflation, devaluation is only a couple of tricks in a whole bag of tricks available for redistribution of wealth. It called the money game.

There's so much game strategies, that would need an acedemy of economics to discuss. And possibilities of more to think-tank about.

For me, the wise(rich), diversifies into a basket of strategic assets to defray risk of any component failures, as always some eggs in the basket will turn rotten sometimes. but nothing beats portable stores of value. For now, nothing had been invented take the place of Gold. But since some govts and bandits alike will take your head off for having it, then the other most portable candidate was usd. But the world is reinventing itself as we speaks. Already we have mobiles.



regards
  • #26,167
  • Jun 24, 2011 11:49am Jun 24, 2011 11:49am
Thanks again.

I think if I look too deeply into fiat money I will stop wanting to accumulate any!
  • #26,168
  • Edited 12:03pm Jun 24, 2011 11:52am | Edited 12:03pm
Quoting ukmanthailan
Thanks again.

I think if I look too deeply into fiat money I will stop wanting to accumulate any!
then how are you going to live , my friend.
Still need buy diapers regularly.
I still tend like use the nice cotton ones. But need maintainance as well as knowledge to fold them in the nicest ways.
The pee and throw ones , is available easily. Until all the landfills are filled.
And that would be soon, as all the plastics is not bio degrading.
The future archeologist digs will find most of the diapers all intact for future museums.used to be our pottery and swords.


regards
  • #26,169
  • Jun 24, 2011 11:56am Jun 24, 2011 11:56am
Maybe I could start trading diapers - it's a very liquid market from what I've seen

EDIT: Yes, I don't really like the idea of throwing away so many of them every day but I wouldn't fancy washing some of the dirtier ones!
  • #26,170
  • Edited 12:18pm Jun 24, 2011 12:07pm | Edited 12:18pm
Quoting ukmanthailan
Maybe I could start trading diapers - it's a very liquid market from what I've seen

EDIT: Yes, I don't really like the idea of throwing away so many of them every day but I wouldn't fancy washing some of the dirtier ones!
yeah, we such horrible bags of shit., the cotton ones are much more comfortable, and princess will be thankful to you for the much airing of her bums. The throwaways is like wearing decontamination suits. believe me, ever tried plastic underwear yourself?
Another plus is connton ones is washable and you affords your spouse close check on shit quality every time its being washed, sort of QCC.more over its heaps more economical.

regards
  • #26,171
  • Jun 24, 2011 12:19pm Jun 24, 2011 12:19pm
Quoting fti
yeah, we such horrible bags of shit., the cotton ones are much more comfortable, and princess will be thankful to you for the much airing of her bums. The throwaways is like wearing decontamination suits. believe me, otherwise try plastic underwear yourself.


regards
I will see if I can find any at the shops and give them a go. I guess some handwashing is in order before throwing them in the machine...

I hope you have a restful night. I'm going to listen to something relaxing now. Not very tired really, but it's getting late so I suppose I shoudl try and sleep. The little princess will be waking me up in 2 or 3 hours.

Take care and sleep well
  • #26,172
  • Jun 24, 2011 12:27pm Jun 24, 2011 12:27pm
Quoting ukmanthailan
I will see if I can find any at the shops and give them a go. I guess some handwashing is in order before throwing them in the machine...

I hope you have a restful night. I'm going to listen to something relaxing now. Not very tired really, but it's getting late so I suppose I shoudl try and sleep. The little princess will be waking me up in 2 or 3 hours.

Take care and sleep well
Oh , they have a cotton strip that is sandwiched to capture the poop from the wrap. That piece of thin cotton strip is disposable. So no need wash poop. And remember add few drops of clorox to the wash for AAA+ hygene.

regards
  • #26,173
  • Jun 24, 2011 12:30pm Jun 24, 2011 12:30pm
Just to say hi to all of you, to fti for being around almost (or more than?) 4 years :-)

And to inform you I am reading the whole thread 3 times already and everytime I read it I find more .. which is amazing.. I am nearly (50) .. learned a lot.. usualy I learn fast.. my life forced me to do so... but this time.. that's a real challenge... Thanks!

I found this thread when I was looking for more info to help my daugthers to understand more deeply and fully comprehend the beauty of Sun Tzu.


Regards
Bah...
  • #26,174
  • Jun 24, 2011 1:16pm Jun 24, 2011 1:16pm
Hope you all had a good trading day. I finally got a couple of trades in during the NY session on the GBP/$ and the $/CAD. Took patience and several pots of coffee but it (PA) finally came to me instead of the other way around. fti and ukmanthailan, this weekend I will search for a broker who trades the diaper market (my broker is an expert in crap so I'll start there -- lol).

I have developed an uneasy feeling about things around the world. It "feels" like we are on the brink of something, but I'm not sure what. It's a bit like the summer of 2008 for me now, and I sure do not want a repeat of that summer/fall. Hope its nothing, but I will do some reading this weekend.
  • #26,175
  • Jun 24, 2011 2:39pm Jun 24, 2011 2:39pm
High Frequency Trading in Forex

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...020282968.html

According to the Aite Group, ( http://www.aitegroup.com/ )
high-frequency traders in 2010 represented approximately 30% of the volume traded in the forex market, while in 2004 only accounted for 13%. To give you an idea, 66% of the shares are traded for high frequency traders in stock markets.

http://research.stlouisfed.org/wp/2011/2011-001.pdf

http://workspace.imperial.ac.uk/busi.../11_salmon.pdf


Have a High Frequency weekend,

Textor
  • #26,176
  • Edited 10:04pm Jun 24, 2011 9:53pm | Edited 10:04pm
Quoting fti
Hi,
Whats the point you are trying to make?
I not getting it.

Is there anything wrong with a bunch of traders and friends , sit chatty with one another.
About markets , about life , about new born babes, about sun & stars, while when the chance arises we help another along the way to understanding?

On this thread , if you had taken liberty to peruse, you would had seen, me putting my life's work on the table , hoping help another who trades along. Now I am not in best of health, so we chatty along keep thread alive, while sharing some comaradie...
Oh no....I think it is great that you guys have a place to chat. I just feel that the original meaning of the thread has been lost over time. Personally, I like to see fresh, new ideas and not the same thread over and over again with nothing new to say. I think FF should find a special place for this type of thread that does not push out newer threads that are trying to introduce a fresh new perspective. Maybe I have been in the FF environment too long I guess....don't you guys get tired of seeing the same thread over and over again? Think outside the box folks!!! As I said again, it would help if you changed the title to "FX General Chat" or something. That would make total sense and it could just sit there and collect comments 24/7. When was the last time technical analysis was discussed here? Probably a long time
  • #26,177
  • Jun 24, 2011 10:11pm Jun 24, 2011 10:11pm
Quoting Troikaone1
don't you guys get tired of seeing the same thread over and over again? Think outside the box folks!!! As I said again, it would help if you changed the title to "FX General Chat" or something. When was the last time technical analysis was discussed here? Probably a long time
Technical Analysis? What's the name of the Thread?

In all seriousness, nothing wrong with TA, it's how you use it, but to answer your questions.

Once you find your car keys you quit looking for them.

Everything you need to point you on the right road, technically, psychology, fundamentally is inside the thread. The rest is camaraderie from those who have put the time in and studied it.

Put a few weeks in and slowly study the first 200-300 pages, you won't be let down.

regards
  • #26,178
  • Jun 24, 2011 10:20pm Jun 24, 2011 10:20pm
Quoting auxesis
Technical Analysis? What's the name of the Thread?

In all seriousness, nothing wrong with TA, it's how you use it, but to answer your questions.

Once you find your car keys you quit looking for them.

Everything you need to point you on the right road, technically, psychology, fundamentally is inside the thread. The rest is camaraderie from those who have put the time in and studied it.

Put a few weeks in and slowly study the first 200-300 pages, you won't be let down.

regards

LOL....that's my point. There is no way anyone can go thru 200 to 300 pages and somehow find the meaning of a thread. When I first observed this thread, around 3 years ago or so; I never thought to post because there was nothing meaty to discuss. You can go back a lot of pages and everything is kinda bland. But I'm sure you guys have developed a taste for it. Again, it just needs to be assigned to a different area where it does not take the space newer threads trying to introduce new ideas and concepts. This is a very mature thread and deserves a special place of honor away from the newer threads w/ fresher and more interesting topics.
  • #26,179
  • Jun 24, 2011 10:21pm Jun 24, 2011 10:21pm
Quoting Troikaone1
Oh no....I think it is great that you guys have a place to chat. I just feel that the original meaning of the thread has been lost over time. Personally, I like to see fresh, new ideas and not the same thread over and over again with nothing new to say. I think FF should find a special place for this type of thread that does not push out newer threads that are trying to introduce a fresh new perspective. Maybe I have been in the FF environment too long I guess....don't you guys get tired of seeing the same thread over and over again? Think outside...
This thread is one of the unique threads in FF. It is a place where fti's students can gather to discuss trading, as well as, the other aspect of life. The original meaning has not been lost. In fact, it thrives here.

If you seek fresh, new ideas, then read the first 200 pages and join in. If not, you can start your own thread to focus on what ever you want. Thinking outside the box is what this thread has achieved, and if you'd take some time to read the entire thread, then you'd know that. Your second to the last comment makes it clear that you have not bothered to read the contents of this thread, as it is unlikely that TA will be discussed here.

I hope you take the time to read the first 200 pages and then join in as you see fit. If not, I'd ask you to move along to another thread. Occasionally, we'll get someone passing through who stirs up a lot of dust, just for the sake of stirring up dust. They tend to quickly get the point and then just move along. Recently, we had to deal with several "turds in the punchbowl", and unfortunately fti had to ban them. I hope you make the choice to join in. Everyone (who is not looking for trouble) seeking help in becoming a trader is welcome here.

Edit: Regarding your response to auxesis, then it's best to just ignore the thread. FWIW, I frequent many of the other threads in FF, and nearly all of them struggle with questions that are answered here. It's just too much work to read the 200 pages when compared to discussing "outside the box" ideas with people who have no idea what they are saying, nor have ever implemented those ideas in a trading strategy. Good searching and good trading.
  • #26,180
  • Jun 24, 2011 10:30pm Jun 24, 2011 10:30pm
Quoting GEfx
This thread is one of the unique threads in FF. It is a place where fti's students can gather to discuss trading, as well as, the other aspect of life. The original meaning has not been lost. In fact, it thrives here.

If you seek fresh, new ideas, then read the first 200 pages and join in. If not, you can start your own thread to focus on what ever you want. Thinking outside the box is what this thread has achieved, and if you'd take some time to read the entire thread, then you'd know that. Your second to the last comment makes it clear that...
I challenge you to produce a three sentence summary of what this thread is about.

Personally, for me, it is not about TA or fundamentals. It is both. It is not about one timeframe or the other. It is all timeframes working in harmony (unified theory). I understand the notion of the word "fallacy" as it tries to suggest that TA does not matter....but it does. TA if applied correctly, in an out of the box kinda way can be incredible. Anwyay....give me a quick summary of the thread if you can and I apologize for interrupting the "flow" of the thread.

Speaking of fundamentals....my most recent breakthrough was an ability to decipher when to allow fundamentals to override the technicals. Case in point....the impact of the release of strategic oil reserves and the craziness of the USD strength late last week due to the greek crisis. It made me realize why some things work technically when they are not supposed to work. It was a major leap in my trading. Just my 2 cents.
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