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Order Flow - Achieving the mindset

  • #2,021
  • Jun 23, 2011 4:32pm Jun 23, 2011 4:32pm
Quoting xXTrizzleXx
Blame Monroe he started this! What he won't tell you is that he was the one who orchestrated all this bearish flow today...sneaky...
whuahahaha!

so you think they might squeeze it even more? I don't know...

I think it was just shorts booking profit/covering shorts in NY after the news gave them some added gains to extended levels, the greece austerity deal just added to it a bit, but I think that late squeeze was exaggerated by algo's in late NY and low liquidity... I guess it depends how the asian's think on risk after that.... i'll have to bust out my candles and ichi...

stops above 4320 if they can squeeze it... though i think they'll meet some sellers ahead of 4300...
  • #2,022
  • Jun 23, 2011 5:00pm Jun 23, 2011 5:00pm
Quoting Monroe
whuahahaha!

so you think they might squeeze it even more? I don't know...

I think it was just shorts booking profit/covering shorts in NY after the news gave them some added gains to extended levels, the greece austerity deal just added to it a bit, but I think that late squeeze was exaggerated by algo's in late NY and low liquidity... I guess it depends how the asian's think on risk after that.... i'll have to bust out my candles and ichi...

stops above 4320 if they can squeeze it... though i think they'll meet some sellers ahead of 4300...
It would be lovely if they could do 1.4320..it's kind of a stretch though, so if anything I'm happy to take 1.4300. I'm thinking short-covering, Asia, Friday, and change of sentiment equating to something bullish..doesnt even have to be a stop-play. Have to play it short term for now unfortunately since most of my margin is tied up in XAU/USD

Regards,
xXTrizzleXx
  • #2,023
  • Jun 23, 2011 5:12pm Jun 23, 2011 5:12pm
Quoting xXTrizzleXx
It would be lovely if they could do 1.4320..it's kind of a stretch though, so if anything I'm happy to take 1.4300. I'm thinking short-covering, Asia, Friday, and change of sentiment equating to something bullish..doesnt even have to be a stop-play. Have to play it short term for now unfortunately since most of my margin is tied up in XAU/USD

Regards,
xXTrizzleXx
cool I hear ya... well good luck. I think in the long term... the red knight is going DOWN DOWN DOWN

but I haven't got mastery of the global macro just yet... so my opinion isn't worth shit. lol
  • #2,024
  • Jun 23, 2011 5:32pm Jun 23, 2011 5:32pm
Quoting Monroe
cool I hear ya... well good luck. I think in the long term... the red knight is going DOWN DOWN DOWN

but I haven't got mastery of the global macro just yet... so my opinion isn't worth shit. lol
Definitely..Greece is in such a sad situation..it will be interesting to see what tricks they use to get their deficit on-track..there's already been so much lost productivity due to the protest actions..But at least it will give our pips a chance to have babies.

Wow..looking back this thread has really taken on a new direction lol we've come a long way.

EDIT: Ok, Asia is boring me..not giving the action I had intended, and I'm too tired to babysit. Calling it early for tonight. Good luck!

Regards,
xXTrizzleXx
  • #2,025
  • Edited 7:01pm Jun 23, 2011 5:41pm | Edited 7:01pm
Quoting xXTrizzleXx
Definitely..Greece is in such a sad situation..it will be interesting to see what tricks they use to get their deficit on-track..there's already been so much lost productivity due to the protest actions..But at least it will give our pips a chance to have babies.

Wow..looking back this thread has really taken on a new direction lol we've come a long way.

Regards,
xXTrizzleXx

Yes, I mean, not only greece and further spreading of it, and the bank exposure to the debt.. but just the global growth as a whole... as brought to my attention... Trichet saying he is seeing "red light warnings"... or something to that effect, oil dropping and commodities which would pull pressure off the ECB to continue hiking rates... no qe3, etc...

we'll see how it plays out... long term we're just in a consolidation pattern on the euro, and in a neutral zone of it right now...
  • #2,026
  • Jun 23, 2011 8:06pm Jun 23, 2011 8:06pm
Idk how you guys follow all this stuff on the EU. lol

I'm still swimming with Team Swissy
  • #2,027
  • Jun 23, 2011 8:14pm Jun 23, 2011 8:14pm
Quoting EmeraldEyes
Idk how you guys follow all this stuff on the EU. lol

I'm still swimming with Team Swissy
Hey Emerald, I read an interesting report regarding EUR/CHF, I'm not sure if you read it, I'll post it anyway...


----------------------------


It's always a bit nerve wracking when you even think about forecasting a bottom in EUR/CHF, even a temporary one, but when you look at the daily study it's getting eerily close to saying "it's a buy". RSI bottomed way back on May 11 right on Welles Wilder's recommended 25.0 oversold line. Spot has continued to fall but RSI has continued to climb, a real sign of positive divergence. Since bottoming at 1.1946 last Thursday and closing by 1.2040/45 we've had three days, including today, of higher lows although the close record has been spotty (best close Friday 1.2140, yesterday 1.2105, today 1.2125 (maybe?)

That tells us to be VERY cautious about calling a bottom particularly as we have a similar spotty pattern in the 4 day sequence of highs. Bank strategists however note warning signals, custodian bank flow reports revealed that CHF was sold again by real money (#2 most sold currency Friday & Monday thru this morning's NY open) A bank currency strategist from one of the big custodians noted they feel a growing risk of SNB intervention and flows from their clients since Thursday's low seem to bear out the view that at least short term targets have been achieved by the bear camp.

This particular analyst noted "As such, we cannot help but note a report from the KOF Swiss Economic Institute. The research body now predicts growth of 1.9% in 2012 down from 2.8% in 2011 stating, “The reason for slower growth is the strong CHF as well as the weaker global, and in particular European, economic trend”. In fact last week, the State Secretariat for Economics cut its growth forecast for 2012 to an even more modest 1.5%." This are indeed salient points and worthy of note.

Swiss money supply continues to slow the latest data reveal Annual M1 growth at 5.6% y-on-y from 8.2% last month and currency in circulation declined to 3.5% y-on-y from 5.1%, sight deposits y-on-y to 6% vs 8.8%. M2 rose at a slower pace (5.8% y-on-y, down from 7.5%) M3 growth 5.6% y-on -y vs 7.0%. One bank analyst at a Brit clearer pointed out "The monetary base (banknotes in circulation plus domestic banks' sight deposits with the Swiss National Bank (SNB)) stood at CHF73.3bn (sa) against CHF72.4bn reported for April - quite a notch below the latest record of CHF128.5bn seen in May 2010."

The analyst from the large custodian also noted that there is an apparent dichotomy in views on intervention quoting SNB’s Danthine “The picture is clearly one where there is no reason at the moment for either interventions or extraordinary measures. The economy is, maybe surprisingly and maybe only temporarily, running at a relatively good pace” in juxtaposition with SNB President Hildebrand “We cannot expect that exporters can deal with this situation in the long run. When margins are being squeezed, companies live on their savings … That is why we are concerned about the exchange rates. They pose a risk for exporters and for growth”. Excellent pick up from that bank analyst and a key concern, particularly after later Hildebrand comments ...

“We've seen historical highs of the CHF in recent weeks which lead to an additional tightening of monetary policy conditions, not yet contained in our forecasts”. As noted above, we're loathe to call a bottom in EUR/CHF but the sum of the parts, real money sales, money supply lower, references to the strain on exporters add up to some gathering circumstantial evidence that doesn't constitute a smoking gun but does make you go hmmm...
  • #2,028
  • Jun 23, 2011 8:31pm Jun 23, 2011 8:31pm
No I hadn't read that, thanks for the post Monroe. I'm definately keeping an open mind about the other side of the trade. I'm prepared for intervention to rear up, but I'm still holding on to all short trades this year in the xxx/Chf pairs until it happens. The market went haywire last night across the board last night showing crazy Chf strength.

A couple good stop hunts to play on the Usd/Jpy around 80.70 as I posted yesterday.
  • #2,029
  • Edited 8:54pm Jun 23, 2011 8:42pm | Edited 8:54pm
On EUR/USD by the way, if you noted the last reserve manager order flow info... you would see there were bids from them left at 1.4170/95, more 1.4115/35 and 1.4075, big stops building below.

In bold is where we stopped. To get to the next round of bids there would have to be large amounts of selling and I doubt you would get that after such a drop if it didn't happen with in the first half of NY session... you got doji bar on the hourly chart on the low hour 10-11 before heading into the london fix... on the pullback it came right to the 4170.

These are places where leveraged sellers would maybe take profit/short cover knowing there are reserve bids there and at the stated time, plus we were right under the 100 DMA and hit smack on the lower 21-day bollinger in a longer term consolidation, on a wednesday heading into the end of the week. (you don't have to use the tech shit, but I like to keep an eye on the bigger watched ones)

Thats probably the best use for the order board info for me. I didn't go long here, but I booked half on my short at 4195, from above 4400.
  • #2,030
  • Jun 23, 2011 8:45pm Jun 23, 2011 8:45pm
Quoting EmeraldEyes
No I hadn't read that, thanks for the post Monroe. I'm definately keeping an open mind about the other side of the trade. I'm prepared for intervention to rear up, but I'm still holding on to all short trades this year in the xxx/Chf pairs until it happens. The market went haywire last night across the board last night showing crazy Chf strength.

A couple good stop hunts to play on the Usd/Jpy around 80.70 as I posted yesterday.
no prob, yea... not to take off your position or go long from here just yet or anything, but yea I guess it's something to keep an eye on.
  • #2,031
  • Jun 24, 2011 12:28am Jun 24, 2011 12:28am
TOKYO (Dow Jones)--The euro rose against the dollar in Asia Friday as multinational efforts to tame crude prices and inflationary pressure prompted investors to think that central banks may refrain from policy tightening for now.

It does not make any sense to me, anyone else?
.
  • #2,032
  • Jun 24, 2011 1:29am Jun 24, 2011 1:29am
Quoting nasir.khan
TOKYO (Dow Jones)--The euro rose against the dollar in Asia Friday as multinational efforts to tame crude prices and inflationary pressure prompted investors to think that central banks may refrain from policy tightening for now.

It does not make any sense to me, anyone else?
.
Central Banks in Asia would refrain from tightening policy is what I think they meant to get at. The market has slowly become more negatively receptive to these interest rate hikes, as it would suggest a desired slow-down of the Chinese economy. China slowing down is the last thing the global recovery needs right now, and so it may have been viewed as a risk-appetite move. But I still disagree that the above was the reason why EUR rose...

There was an exquisite show of gamesmanship in said same pair this morning just ahead of the German Ifo numbers. I played along but unfortunately when I went to exit, my platform froze. The numbers saved me, but just a heads-up to OANDA users that it could prove to be a very frustrating event if you lock-up ahead of big number with a position on.

Regards,
xXTrizzleXx
  • #2,033
  • Edited 10:31am Jun 25, 2011 8:59am | Edited 10:31am
dates to watch....

Attached Image
  • #2,034
  • Jun 25, 2011 11:16am Jun 25, 2011 11:16am
What is that Monroe? The program that is.

Anyone catch this?

Banks discuss new Greek rollover plan
"National finance officials are discussing with banks and insurers a proposal to replace existing Greek debt with a different type of bond in a deal they hope will persuade credit rating agencies to refrain from declaring Athens in default of its obligations, two senior European banking sources told Reuters."
Cautiously optimistic. . .
  • #2,035
  • Jun 25, 2011 11:31am Jun 25, 2011 11:31am
Quoting Tact1cal
What is that Monroe? The program that is.

Anyone catch this?

Banks discuss new Greek rollover plan
"National finance officials are discussing with banks and insurers a proposal to replace existing Greek debt with a different type of bond in a deal they hope will persuade credit rating agencies to refrain from declaring Athens in default of its obligations, two senior European banking sources told Reuters."
Sup Tact1cal... that's reuters.

Yes I've seen that... there's a new picture on reuters.com with greeks in v for vendetta masks, lol
  • #2,036
  • Jun 25, 2011 12:34pm Jun 25, 2011 12:34pm
Where did you get it? It looks really simple, I want it.

Those crazy Greeks. I bet they will be pretty pissed if those austerity measures pass. Politics is so dramatic. Provides cool trade opportunities though lol.

I wonder what risk appetite would look like if debt holders got around an agency default and got long term support. There's more debt to worry about but Greece is by far the worst. I think it could be a positive for global growth. Japan outlook is good once it gets over recession. Released oil reserves are a growth positive. Saudi's are expected to pick up the slack after. China would get increased demand from EU/US. Australia would get additional demand from China. Global/US growth would mean the fed would be in a more comfortable position to start selling off bonds.

I remember reading from PIMCO the fed would have to sell something like $1trln bonds to get the fed fund rate to .25%. They have pushed it down to near 0% with QE. Interest rates follow the fed fund rate. They will have to do this before we even get our first rate hike.

Just some thinking out loud. There's a lot of variables but there's going to be a lot of money moving around at some point. Still have a lot to think about.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedi...ective.svg.png


http://i.imgur.com/ndzYd.jpg
Cautiously optimistic. . .
  • #2,037
  • Edited 1:21pm Jun 25, 2011 12:58pm | Edited 1:21pm
It's quite costly Tact1cal, I don't have it, just got the screenshot. I use ransquawk for all the streaming headlines during the day. IFR is Thompson Reuters so they hook you up with all the info you should know, forexlive also have reuters and bloomberg terminals.

These reserve bids seem to be holding the market for now, and I think we might see some pricing in of hopes of the parliament vote passing the austerity package (which seems an ok bet since the confidence vote), but I would be weary because it will be headline driven from politicians and ratings agencies this week.

I think it's going to take the decision of either not making grade for the loans or successful can kick to make the bigger breakout either way, I'm also watching US equity markets and oil... July 4th might see some fireworks...
  • #2,038
  • Jun 25, 2011 1:45pm Jun 25, 2011 1:45pm
Quote
It's quite costly Tact1cal, I don't have it, just got the screenshot. I use ransquawk for all the streaming headlines during the day. IFR is Thompson Reuters so they hook you up with all the info you should know, forexlive also have reuters and bloomberg terminals.

I should have guessed. I liked it to much for it to be free.

I wish I could read IFR at work.


Quote
These reserve bids seem to be holding the market for now, and I think we might see some pricing in of hopes of the parliament vote passing the austerity package (which seems an ok bet since the confidence vote), but I would be weary because it will be headline driven from politicians and ratings agencies this week.
For sure, I'm expecting the same pricing in. This whole deal has been really intense. I've been loving it. The short covering off of Greek austerity news was sweet. After trending down all night. I love when news catches players scrambling to cover. It wasn't the biggest move but IMO it was guaranteed order flow movement.

Quote
I think it's going to take the decision of either a default or successful can kick to make the bigger breakout either way... July 4th might see some fireworks...
Yup, I'm feeling the bearish side long term from where we stand right now. I'm prepared to play both sides though. This is worth a possible long term short position IMO.
Cautiously optimistic. . .
  • #2,039
  • Jun 25, 2011 9:52pm Jun 25, 2011 9:52pm
Heya guys,

There is definitely a lot of coin to be made in these next few weeks, and I feel like it will be an accurate assessment of everything I've put together over the past few months.

Near term, I'm bullish EUR. We have a barrier at 1.4100, but the reserve manager bids, like Monroe pointed out should prove to be a great hindrance to the downside, making it a barrier I don't want to push into. I'm looking for a dip early Sunday to build a position, and then a move upwards to liquidate into weak shorts, which should be easy given the event risk posed by the parliamentary austerity vote. That and the parliamentary vote will be my base for establishing some medium term longs (2-3 weeks). Let's not forget that we have the ECB around the corner in July. Only problem like Tact1cal highlighted, is the rating agencies...they can pop in at any moment, so I'm looking to take off risk very quickly this week.

Just my 2 pips,
xXTrizzleXx
  • #2,040
  • Jun 25, 2011 9:55pm Jun 25, 2011 9:55pm
Quoting Tact1cal
For sure, I'm expecting the same pricing in. This whole deal has been really intense. I've been loving it. The short covering off of Greek austerity news was sweet. After trending down all night. I love when news catches players scrambling to cover. It wasn't the biggest move but IMO it was guaranteed order flow movement.

Yup, I'm feeling the bearish side long term from where we stand right now. I'm prepared to play both sides though. This is worth a possible long term short position IMO.
Yea, I am enjoying this volatility. I know there's big stops below 4075 and the below the May lows towards the 200DMA... it could get interesting... we'll see what happens.

I'm also watching the loonie...
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