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Order Flow - Achieving the mindset

  • #2,001
  • Jun 23, 2011 11:27am Jun 23, 2011 11:27am
Quoting Nervousone
Melvin, there is too much going on for the PMI data to have a huge effect. Think bigger, what's hitting the headlines?

Bernanke came out yesterday more hawkish that expected. He did not signal a QE3. Since quantitative easing devalues currency it only makes sense for dollar strength.

A lot of money is long Euro and other currencies that needs to adjust, since they can't dump it all due to liquidity your seeing a nice sustained rally in the dollar. Check it out, its not just the Euro going down. It's all the majors. It's definitely a dollar...
Hey Nervous,

Yes it was a clear dollar strength move thats why I questioned the legitimacy of the whole host of reasons provided by various news feeds which were Euro specific about the down move of the Euro. They would arguably have contributed to a certain extent though.

However, having said that, I don't think the FOMC statement was the real trigger behind such a move. Everyone already expected an end to QE2 with no/very low expectation of QE3. So not much hawkishness in that aspect. In fact if anything, he came out more dovish with the weaker GDP and unemployment forecast.

Of course we can then move on to say that this caused a 'risk-off' mode in the markets. But can this 'usual excuse' used to explain currency fluctuations really drive the Euro down to its current levels? I highly doubt so.
  • #2,002
  • Jun 23, 2011 11:34am Jun 23, 2011 11:34am
Quoting Darkstar
Well, for one, its a pretty big list.

Two, most people haven't submitted their full (or real) name. I have like 15 Daves, 9 Johns, 6 Mohammeds, and thats just off the top of my head. The only way to differentiate them is by their email addresses and I'm fairly sure listing everyones email on an internet page would piss at least a few off them off. Especially since I promised I wouldn't share or abuse them...
You could grab an automailer (unimailer is free) and just send out a mass test email to everyone on the list
  • #2,003
  • Jun 23, 2011 11:52am Jun 23, 2011 11:52am
Hey Monroe,

I have started looking at Oanda IFR feed today and i figured i only need only 3 categories,

1- Forex Watch SquawkBox
2- Order Board
3- Options

So i wanted to ask which ones have you selected to get alerts from?

Thanks.
.
  • #2,004
  • Edited 1:08pm Jun 23, 2011 12:04pm | Edited 1:08pm
Quoting vicky_ag
Heya Monore, I was just making a point which is not only theoretical but realistic as well. The corporation you are taking about use swap deals as compared to spot.t.
No vicky-ag, I don't think have your facts that straight, they use spot mostly, and forwards, and they hedge against future liabilities or bigger future orders etc, and some large corporations even speculate. I don't think we have to get into what the dealers do with their positions from these clients on there books. And as I also said, corporates are not the only ones that are using the FX market for other reasons besides profit. But again, we won't argue.
  • #2,005
  • Jun 23, 2011 12:09pm Jun 23, 2011 12:09pm
Quoting nasir.khan
Hey Monroe,

I have started looking at Oanda IFR feed today and i figured i only need only 3 categories,

1- Forex Watch SquawkBox
2- Order Board
3- Options

So i wanted to ask which ones have you selected to get alerts from?

Thanks.
.

I would definitely suggest using the DJ feed as well nasir. I use the whole feed, so I keep them all selected. DJ, IFR, 4cast... it's all there for me.
  • #2,006
  • Jun 23, 2011 1:00pm Jun 23, 2011 1:00pm
Quoting Monroe
I would definitely suggest using the DJ feed as well nasir. I use the whole feed, so I keep them all selected. DJ, IFR, 4cast... it's all there for me.
yeah i have also ticked dowjones feed too.

Ok i will select all of them feeds and will monitor what is interesting and whats not.

But hey i am unchecking IFR's,... Technicals, Daily high/lowsl, Positions summaries etc.

I dont really need a news service to tell me where TL's are on a chart and what are today's high lows. lol
.
  • #2,007
  • Jun 23, 2011 1:09pm Jun 23, 2011 1:09pm
Quoting Monroe
No vicky-ag, I don't think have your facts that straight, they use spot mostly, and forwards, and they hedge against future liabilities or bigger future orders etc, and some large corporations even speculate. I don't think we have to get into what the dealers do with their positions from these clients on there books. But again, we won't argue.
Monore, I know couple of bank dealers, myself employed at one - non treasury though. So, I am quite confident of that.
Simplistically, taking your example...loss to corporation who just want their business = gain to some speculator like you and me...ie gain + loss = 0. So still a zero sum game.

Anyways, moving on. Thoughts on Euro downmove/USD strength ?
  • #2,008
  • Jun 23, 2011 1:11pm Jun 23, 2011 1:11pm
Quoting vicky_ag
Monore, I know couple of bank dealers, myself employed at one - non treasury though. So, I am quite confident of that.
Simplistically, taking your example...loss to corporation who just want their business = gain to some speculator like you and me...ie gain + loss = 0. So still a zero sum game.
Anyways, on to the matter short on euro?
I was also told this by a dealer who dealt with these clients on a daily basis for more then 15 years. I am not sure what bank you were employed at... but many don't consider this a zero sum game for those reasons, and corporates are not using just swaps that's false info as far as I know.

But ok enough of that.

I am short euro from up top... this turned into a runner... looks like Bernanke hooked it up...
  • #2,009
  • Jun 23, 2011 1:25pm Jun 23, 2011 1:25pm
Quoting Monroe
I was also told this by a dealer who dealt with these clients on a daily basis for more then 15 years. I am not sure what bank you were employed at... but many don't consider this a zero sum game for those reasons, and corporates are not using just swaps that's false info as far as I know.

But ok enough of that.

I am short euro from up top... this turned into a runner... looks like Bernanke hooked it up...
I thought you were just hunting our stops.

Have you started to trade a little long term,.. or was it just an unusual runner?
.
.
  • #2,010
  • Jun 23, 2011 1:28pm Jun 23, 2011 1:28pm
im waitin on a pullback maybe during the asian session, hope that wasn't the pb i was looking for at 42~ that passed me by... anticipating stronger gdp and durable goods tomorrow, so im looking to get short relatively soon, before Us session at least..
  • #2,011
  • Jun 23, 2011 1:35pm Jun 23, 2011 1:35pm
Quoting nasir.khan
I thought you were just hunting our stops.

Have you started to trade a little long term,.. or was it just an unusual runner?
.
.
I trade long and short term, though I wouldn't really say "long term", but some trades call for a hold and this one seemed appropriate to do so... I didn't see this as "unusual" per se.
  • #2,012
  • Jun 23, 2011 2:16pm Jun 23, 2011 2:16pm
euro smack dab off the 21-day bolli's and trying to close about the 100 DMA again... it went down to pretty heavily oversold levels today. The greece austerity plan announcement helped with some short covering I guess.
  • #2,013
  • Jun 23, 2011 2:17pm Jun 23, 2011 2:17pm
The current spike on greece reaching an agreement seems to be a great opp for a short.

Wonder if it could manage to go up more and hit 310, nice tech lvl there for a short.
.
  • #2,014
  • Edited 4:22pm Jun 23, 2011 3:38pm | Edited 4:22pm
Quoting jamies2011
xXTrizzleXx, I dont agree.
I use it now and I'm actually doing pretty good.
Ok guy, if you trust them that's fine with me. But you should know they're an unregulated outfit based in Cyprus..

Quoting RichFWebb
im waitin on a pullback maybe during the asian session, hope that wasn't the pb i was looking for at 42~ that passed me by... anticipating stronger gdp and durable goods tomorrow, so im looking to get short relatively soon, before Us session at least..
Quoting nasir.khan
The current spike on greece reaching an agreement seems to be a great opp for a short.

Wonder if it could manage to go up more and hit 310, nice tech lvl there for a short.
.
Interesting...*quietly funds account with extra margin before Asian Session* I smell a short market...

Regards,
xXTrizzleXx

PS. Anyone watch Gold around here?
  • #2,015
  • Jun 23, 2011 4:00pm Jun 23, 2011 4:00pm
haha, callin us noobz huh? i see how it is
  • #2,016
  • Jun 23, 2011 4:09pm Jun 23, 2011 4:09pm
Quoting RichFWebb
haha, callin us noobz huh? i see how it is
Hardly! Just poking some gentle fun. Besides..it helps to get to know..your targets... Blame Monroe he started this! What he won't tell you is that he was the one who orchestrated all this bearish flow today...sneaky...
  • #2,017
  • Jun 23, 2011 4:21pm Jun 23, 2011 4:21pm
after that close today though, things are looking a little different. my robot says go long.. and who am i to argue with a robot!

I chalk it up to an over-reaction to no QE3 / unwinding longs, although who knows what monroe was doin behind the scenes! That ignored bad Us data today should come into play tomorrow and bite everyone in the ass. although i feel like it might be a confusing day, with more US data, unwinding of positions for the weekend, and the recent bs about the greece agreement.. a lot to think about..
  • #2,018
  • Jun 23, 2011 4:30pm Jun 23, 2011 4:30pm
How about I just found out the news about the Greece deal hit the wire via Bloomberg at 10:50. Which ended up being the low of the day. Why it wasn't jumped on there like it was when Reuters sent it out is beyond me. Maybe people in the know building positions.


A bit conspiracy theory, but if the big guys were building positions from 1.4130 10:50 and it started to pullback after touching off 1.4200 and were running out of order flow to push the Euro up, a 50% pullback(1.4165) from when the Bloomberg news release is probably a great time to produce more order flow and not risk a position, which just happens to coincide with the exact price when Reuters released it. Makes sense, making the Greece deal more out in the open via Reuters to produce more order flow to push your position further into profit. Cue eerie music.

I'm sure this isn't true, but I always notice small dumb things and that story I made up popped in my head. lol
  • #2,019
  • Jun 23, 2011 5:23pm Jun 23, 2011 5:23pm
Quoting Nervousone
How about I just found out the news about the Greece deal hit the wire via Bloomberg at 10:50. Which ended up being the low of the day. Why it wasn't jumped on there like it was when Reuters sent it out is beyond me. Maybe people in the know building positions.


A bit conspiracy theory, but if the big guys were building positions from 1.4130 10:50 and it started to pullback after touching off 1.4200 and were running out of order flow to push the Euro up, a 50% pullback(1.4165) from when the Bloomberg news release is probably a great time to produce...
Or, perhaps said article released at 10:50 AM said that the Greek FinMin expected the agreement with the EU/IMF to be concluded today, but only recently (the volatility explosion) was it actually confirmed. Sometimes..information and people can be biased.

Regards,
xXTrizzleXx
  • #2,020
  • Jun 23, 2011 5:29pm Jun 23, 2011 5:29pm
Quoting melvin87
Hey guys,

Anyone care to share their view on what happened to the EUR today (prior to the US news). Overly exaggerated moves for the type of euro-related news released today in my opinion.

Hard to believe that the PMI data (which never really had much of an impact in the past), talk between slovak and greek PM, and the issue with the E3.8bln gap in the austerity plan caused such a move.
It's oil.
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