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Order Flow - Achieving the mindset

  • #1,981
  • Jun 22, 2011 2:54pm Jun 22, 2011 2:54pm
Quoting redbaron1981
There seems to be a lot more order chatter with them than what I get from IFR.

Whats the best news source you've tried monroe?
I'm not sure why you need the order flow info when you can just look at the chart and see where the interest is... any rumors and options info worth noting you can get for free.

newsfeeds... ransquawk is a good one.


I mean if you have the money to spill go for it man, I did like MNI (though not for the order info), but to me it wasn't worth the dough.
  • #1,982
  • Jun 22, 2011 3:11pm Jun 22, 2011 3:11pm
Monroe,

I understand where your coming from. I just seem to get to distracted from looking at charts. I'm finding it easier to just copy my levels on to note pad and trade it from there.
  • #1,983
  • Jun 22, 2011 3:15pm Jun 22, 2011 3:15pm
Quoting Monroe
I'm not sure why you need the order flow info when you can just look at the chart and see where the interest is... any rumors and options info worth noting you can get for free.

newsfeeds... ransquawk is a good one.


I mean if you have the money to spill go for it man, I did like MNI (though not for the order info), but to me it wasn't worth the dough.
Trying to glean order placement from the charts alone is something I've made a concerted effort to do for the last few months, and it's paying off dividends. It's very helpful when you want to trade the crosses in particular for which scarce order flow rumors exist.

I'm not advocating ditching the rumors, but try not to be overly dependent on them. Some of the best trades I've had recently would have been missed opportunities if I depended on it. It would not be prudent of you to help use the rumors as a guide to help you learn what to look for. Then you can save yourself some dough each month, since like Monroe said the noteworthy options you get for free. If they're free, more people are aware of them, so I'd reckon they'd garner even more interest from an order flow standpoint.

Regards,
xXTrizzleXx
  • #1,984
  • Jun 22, 2011 3:18pm Jun 22, 2011 3:18pm
Quoting xXTrizzleXx
Trying to glean order placement from the charts alone is something I've made a concerted effort to do for the last few months, and it's paying off dividends. It's very helpful when you want to trade the crosses in particular for which scarce order flow rumors exist.
Is there a book/website I can learn this from? I'm slowly working my way though the market microstructure textbook but it's a really tough read.

Thanks
  • #1,985
  • Jun 22, 2011 3:20pm Jun 22, 2011 3:20pm
Quoting redbaron1981
Monroe,

I understand where your coming from. I just seem to get to distracted from looking at charts. I'm finding it easier to just copy my levels on to note pad and trade it from there.
ok fair enough then...
  • #1,986
  • Jun 22, 2011 3:21pm Jun 22, 2011 3:21pm
Quoting xXTrizzleXx
Trying to glean order placement from the charts alone is something I've made a concerted effort to do for the last few months, and it's paying off dividends. It's very helpful when you want to trade the crosses in particular for which scarce order flow rumors exist.

I'm not advocating ditching the rumors, but try not to be overly dependent on them. Some of the best trades I've had recently would have been missed opportunities if I depended on it. It would not be prudent of you to help use the rumors as a guide to help you learn what to look for....
my sentiments exactly...
  • #1,987
  • Jun 22, 2011 3:28pm Jun 22, 2011 3:28pm
Quoting lolpie
Is there a book/website I can learn this from? I'm slowly working my way though the market microstructure textbook but it's a really tough read.

Thanks
I hear you on the tough read..Admittedly I didn't get too bogged down in it, only the chapters that seemed relevant. A thorough reading of it is a bit further down on my to-do-list. Try thinking of reasonable places for the level to be yourself, maybe place a few demo trades on that intution, and then let the order rumors validate your thinking.

Hope this helps,
xXTrizzleXx
  • #1,988
  • Jun 22, 2011 5:17pm Jun 22, 2011 5:17pm
I like to play guess the stops too. Dealers cant hide their price action. Try to anticipate the wires. It's not some thing you will learn from a book either. Its actually a fairly simple process. Just keep watching the chart and the news. I found myself wanting to do it naturally after a while.
Cautiously optimistic. . .
  • #1,989
  • Jun 22, 2011 5:23pm Jun 22, 2011 5:23pm
Quoting xXTrizzleXx
I hear you on the tough read..Admittedly I didn't get too bogged down in it, only the chapters that seemed relevant. A thorough reading of it is a bit further down on my to-do-list. Try thinking of reasonable places for the level to be yourself, maybe place a few demo trades on that intution, and then let the order rumors validate your thinking.

Hope this helps,
xXTrizzleXx
Quoting Tact1cal
I like to play guess the stops too. Dealers cant hide their price action. Try to anticipate the wires. It's not some thing you will learn from a book either. Its actually a fairly simple process. Just keep watching the chart and the news. I found myself wanting to do it naturally after a while.
I think I sorta know what you mean, but it's hard to describe because its very discretionary. I basically pull up a chart and look at how the price has behaved in the past few bars and open trades in the direction of the next wide spread bar. I don't look at the entire chart. Just how the wide-spread bar absorbed liquidity of the previous bars.
  • #1,990
  • Jun 22, 2011 8:22pm Jun 22, 2011 8:22pm
Quoting Tact1cal
It's not some thing you will learn from a book either.
It will be soon.
  • #1,991
  • Jun 22, 2011 8:27pm Jun 22, 2011 8:27pm
Quote
It will be soon.

Just curious, how many copies are you printing?
Cautiously optimistic. . .
  • #1,992
  • Jun 22, 2011 8:53pm Jun 22, 2011 8:53pm
Quoting nasir.khan
What if you could post a list of people who requested for the book so every one can check if their request has gone through or not.
Well, for one, its a pretty big list.

Two, most people haven't submitted their full (or real) name. I have like 15 Daves, 9 Johns, 6 Mohammeds, and thats just off the top of my head. The only way to differentiate them is by their email addresses and I'm fairly sure listing everyones email on an internet page would piss at least a few off them off. Especially since I promised I wouldn't share or abuse them...

So long story short, I don't see listing everyone as a viable option.

Quote
When are you going to post your deleted "Lquidity thread" on your blog?

Well, I finished the cleanup yesterday and its ready to post, but I have a problem. The version of blogengine that I was running had a problem with the contact submission system. To solve that I had to upgrade to the latest beta version, and it has a problem with post administration. Supposedly, the final version will be released this weekend and everything will be fixed. Well see...

If its not out by Monday, I can create a manual post by hacking up some xml. That would be a big pain in the ass but I'll do it because I know how much your all looking forward to it.

So yeah... Monday or tuesday. One way or another...
  • #1,993
  • Jun 22, 2011 8:54pm Jun 22, 2011 8:54pm
Quoting Tact1cal
Just curious, how many copies are you printing?
One for each book request I get.
  • #1,994
  • Jun 22, 2011 9:05pm Jun 22, 2011 9:05pm
Quote
So yeah... Monday or tuesday. One way or another...

http://www.myfacewhen.com/images/17.jpg
Cautiously optimistic. . .
  • #1,995
  • Jun 22, 2011 10:23pm Jun 22, 2011 10:23pm
Good stop hunt opportunity on Usd/Jpy today.

Quote
USD/JPY has just taken out a few stops above 80.60 – high so far 80.65. Dealers are battling to come up with any reasonable explanation for todays move other than, you guessed it, stops.
Sean Lee, forexlive.com
  • #1,996
  • Jun 23, 2011 4:49am Jun 23, 2011 4:49am
Quoting Monroe
What's up vicky_ag... I was just saying, in reality and not theoretically, there are large participants not treating the game as zero sum, and not caring about the outcome of the game, therefor that changes the dynamic of it. Although some corporates have treasury desks that strategically try and time it for best price, some don't care and they just need to exchange money to do what they have to do.

Regarding the stock market, good point about dividends/splits, but all transactions are for profit, this is not the same in FX.

Anyway, not worth...
Heya Monore, I was just making a point which is not only theoretical but realistic as well. The corporation you are taking about use swap deals as compared to spot. ie hedge their positions to unforseen exchange rate changes. These swaps are sold by bank dealers who in turn would rather not have unhedged positions on their books.

Though a point can be made that if the unforseen rate changes are in favour of the corporation they make a loss. That for one is a risk associated with hedging, you cant get everything.
Second, bank dealers will themselves hedge, trade the swap position and try to turn to profit. This in turn leaves us with a zero game scenario.

Agree with you that it not worth arguing about. But for some it leads to more confusion if they read through it.
  • #1,997
  • Jun 23, 2011 8:55am Jun 23, 2011 8:55am
Hey guys,

Anyone care to share their view on what happened to the EUR today (prior to the US news). Overly exaggerated moves for the type of euro-related news released today in my opinion.

Hard to believe that the PMI data (which never really had much of an impact in the past), talk between slovak and greek PM, and the issue with the E3.8bln gap in the austerity plan caused such a move.
  • #1,998
  • Jun 23, 2011 9:25am Jun 23, 2011 9:25am
Quoting melvin87
Hey guys,

Anyone care to share their view on what happened to the EUR today (prior to the US news). Overly exaggerated moves for the type of euro-related news released today in my opinion.

Hard to believe that the PMI data (which never really had much of an impact in the past), talk between slovak and greek PM, and the issue with the E3.8bln gap in the austerity plan caused such a move.
Melvin, IMO the upmove on EU was a complete fake out. With Greece situation being unresolved and no signs of another round of QE from Fed, I thought the markets will be 50-50. A euro strength was completely out of question. I have been shorting at every available opportunity on the upmove, hoping to hit a homerun (it was my inexperience coming into play here).


With many people caught long (swept by market movement/hoping for Fed's QE) it was given that they will exit their positions quickly and cause the market to fall.
  • #1,999
  • Jun 23, 2011 9:56am Jun 23, 2011 9:56am
xXTrizzleXx, I dont agree.
I use it now and I'm actually doing pretty good.
  • #2,000
  • Jun 23, 2011 10:16am Jun 23, 2011 10:16am
Quoting melvin87
Hey guys,

Anyone care to share their view on what happened to the EUR today (prior to the US news). Overly exaggerated moves for the type of euro-related news released today in my opinion.

Hard to believe that the PMI data (which never really had much of an impact in the past), talk between slovak and greek PM, and the issue with the E3.8bln gap in the austerity plan caused such a move.

Melvin, there is too much going on for the PMI data to have a huge effect. Think bigger, what's hitting the headlines?

Bernanke came out yesterday more hawkish that expected. He did not signal a QE3. Since quantitative easing devalues currency it only makes sense for dollar strength.

A lot of money is long Euro and other currencies that needs to adjust, since they can't dump it all due to liquidity your seeing a nice sustained rally in the dollar. Check it out, its not just the Euro going down. It's all the majors. It's definitely a dollar strength move.


Hey... I think I'm starting to get this order flow thing
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