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  • #701
  • Mar 17, 2006 4:11pm Mar 17, 2006 4:11pm
Could use some insight on the trade I took this morning USD/CHF short.My entry of 1.2905 was on the 50% break of the asian session range of about 50pips It proceeded to reach the low of 1.2875 then it bounced to the high of 1.2955 just were I had my stops . Lost about 51 pips on the trade now the chf is @ 1.2897.. Bad day here!!! Could the reason for the trade lost be because the chf never Preached the 3rd fib line ,and I never saw it because thats the only explanation I could come up with . Just rushed into a trade ... dont know !!
  • #702
  • Mar 17, 2006 5:04pm Mar 17, 2006 5:04pm
Quoting vinn234
Could use some insight on the trade I took this morning USD/CHF short.My entry of 1.2905 was on the 50% break of the asian session range of about 50pips It proceeded to reach the low of 1.2875 then it bounced to the high of 1.2955 just were I had my stops . Lost about 51 pips on the trade now the chf is @ 1.2897.. Bad day here!!! Could the reason for the trade lost be because the chf never Preached the 3rd fib line ,and I never saw it because thats the only explanation I could come up with . Just rushed into a trade ... dont know !!
Hi Vinn,

Both Vegas and James16 teach "Never let a winner turn into a loser." When you were up 30 pips you could have moved your stop to breakeven to convert your trade to a free trade. I've seen vegas move his stop to breakeven with as little as 10 pips of profit.

Another member of this forum did a study against a series of profitable trades he had made. He went back through the trades one by one and moved the stop to breakeven after a certain number of pips profit. The final profit on this series of trades was greater than before. Moving stops to breakeven quickly results in more stop-outs and misses a few runs, but eliminating many of the losses netted greater profit.

Trade opportunities are numerous. So what if getting stopped out at breakeven means you miss a subsequent run in the direction of the trade. There will always be other trades.

Admittedly this technique is difficult to implement from an emotional/psychological standpoint, but this is only because so many traders focus on the trade at hand as being THE trade. I'll say again what I've said before. Individual trades are meaningless. It is only a series of trades that have meaning.

Hope this helps.

Dial
sxaxlxvxaxtxixoxnxbxyxgxrxaxcxexdxoxtxoxrxgx
  • #703
  • Mar 17, 2006 5:13pm Mar 17, 2006 5:13pm
Quoting diallist
Hi Vinn,

Both Vegas and James16 teach "Never let a winner turn into a loser." When you were up 30 pips you could have moved your stop to breakeven to convert your trade to a free trade. I've seen vegas move his stop to breakeven with as little as 10 pips of profit.

Another member of this forum did a study against a series of profitable trades he had made. He went back through the trades one by one and moved the stop to breakeven after a certain number of pips profit. The final profit on this series of trades was greater than before. Moving stops to breakeven quickly results in more stop-outs and misses a few runs, but eliminating many of the losses netted greater profit.

Trade opportunities are numerous. So what if getting stopped out at breakeven means you miss a subsequent run in the direction of the trade. There will always be other trades.

Admittedly this technique is difficult to implement from an emotional/psychological standpoint, but this is only because so many traders focus on the trade at hand as being THE trade. I'll say again what I've said before. Individual trades are meaningless. It is only a series of trades that have meaning.

Hope this helps.

Dial
I can only agree. When the need to move the SL to breakeven occurs during the night (for Australians) then the only recourse is to use an alert system that warns you to get up and do so.
  • #704
  • Mar 17, 2006 5:27pm Mar 17, 2006 5:27pm
Quoting vinn234
Could use some insight on the trade I took this morning USD/CHF short.My entry of 1.2905 was on the 50% break of the asian session range of about 50pips It proceeded to reach the low of 1.2875 then it bounced to the high of 1.2955 just were I had my stops . Lost about 51 pips on the trade now the chf is @ 1.2897.. Bad day here!!! Could the reason for the trade lost be because the chf never Preached the 3rd fib line ,and I never saw it because thats the only explanation I could come up with . Just rushed into a trade ... dont know !!
Hi Vinn,

Maybe I'm missing something here. I am assuming you are talking about a VWB trade of the USDCHF.

First, the only way price could have touched the second fib level, is if you're using risk model #1. This is the wrong model for USDCHF. Using the correct model, #2, has the price only touching the first fib level. You have it right that the second fib level is the "interest" fib level, but is has to be on model #2.

Second, even if the correct risk model is being used, and you got a reversal day, why are you going short? It should have been long.

I assumed you might have been trading the 4 hour model, but it is setting up for a long trade next as well.

Am I missing something, or are you as confused as I look?
sxaxlxvxaxtxixoxnxbxyxgxrxaxcxexdxoxtxoxrxgx
  • #705
  • Mar 17, 2006 7:53pm Mar 17, 2006 7:53pm
Quoting diallist
Hi Vinn,

Maybe I'm missing something here. I am assuming you are talking about a VWB trade of the USDCHF.

First, the only way price could have touched the second fib level, is if you're using risk model #1. This is the wrong model for USDCHF. Using the correct model, #2, has the price only touching the first fib level. You have it right that the second fib level is the "interest" fib level, but is has to be on model #2.

Second, even if the correct risk model is being used, and you got a reversal day, why are you going short? It should have been long.

I assumed you might have been trading the 4 hour model, but it is setting up for a long trade next as well.

Am I missing something, or are you as confused as I look?

Dial

My MT4 Daily with VWB Daily dynamic FIB levels (Mod 2) shows USDCHF touching the first FIB below the tunnel. Will it go lower, reverse or consolidate? I made 52 pips on my last short trade (entry 1.2941).and closed out for the week.

My MT4 4H chart with FF Tunnel v3 (Mod 2) gives a NL entry at 1.2907 and says that the Trend is DOWN. (V 3.1 tunnel macro direction). The 8 SMA is flattening so a long may be coming.

FXSolutions closed at sell 1.2898 and MT4 (SBFX) at 1.2894, so this should be short, shouldn't it?

I'd appreciate your comments and wonder what else shows it is necessarily "setting up for a long trade"?

My VantagePoint now indicates that this could be so, but only after the close Friday, so what setup indicates this on VWB now?

Thanks.
  • #706
  • Mar 17, 2006 9:30pm Mar 17, 2006 9:30pm
Quoting Trinity
Dial

My MT4 Daily with VWB Daily dynamic FIB levels (Mod 2) shows USDCHF touching the first FIB below the tunnel. Will it go lower, reverse or consolidate? I made 52 pips on my last short trade (entry 1.2941).and closed out for the week.

My MT4 4H chart with FF Tunnel v3 (Mod 2) gives a NL entry at 1.2907 and says that the Trend is DOWN. (V 3.1 tunnel macro direction). The 8 SMA is flattening so a long may be coming.

FXSolutions closed at sell 1.2898 and MT4 (SBFX) at 1.2894, so this should be short, shouldn't it?

I'd appreciate your comments and wonder what else shows it is necessarily "setting up for a long trade"?

My VantagePoint now indicates that this could be so, but only after the close Friday, so what setup indicates this on VWB now?

Thanks.
My point to Vinn is that there is NO trade setup forming at the moment. A long trade should be next, but only after price reaches the 2nd fib and a reversal occurs.

I am puzzled by your short entry at 1.2941. To my understanding that is not a VWB trade, and my understanding that short trades are initiated at the 2nd fib above the tunnel with a reversal and that long trades are initiated at the 2nd fib below the tunnel with a reversal. Your trade at 1.2941 is in neither of those places.

Has there been a change to the rules that I'm missing?

Dial
sxaxlxvxaxtxixoxnxbxyxgxrxaxcxexdxoxtxoxrxgx
  • #707
  • Mar 17, 2006 11:20pm Mar 17, 2006 11:20pm
Quoting diallist
My point to Vinn is that there is NO trade setup forming at the moment. A long trade should be next, but only after price reaches the 2nd fib and a reversal occurs.

I am puzzled by your short entry at 1.2941. To my understanding that is not a VWB trade, and my understanding that short trades are initiated at the 2nd fib above the tunnel with a reversal and that long trades are initiated at the 2nd fib below the tunnel with a reversal. Your trade at 1.2941 is in neither of those places.

Has there been a change to the rules that I'm missing?

Dial
When I entered short at 1.2941 (08.33, March 16 EST) the NL on the 4H indicated an entry at 1.2932. As you say, this trade did not start at the Knife entry.
Trinity
  • #708
  • Mar 18, 2006 12:08am Mar 18, 2006 12:08am
Guys the chf never hit the second fib level on the daly chart ,and yes I have model 2 on the chf .This trade was a mistake from the start was to over anxious an wanting to get involved only when I got stop out and looked over the charts I relized that the trade should have never been taken. As far as being long the swiss Looking @ the chart as I typing ,and I dont see it .The daly bar has pentrated the 1st fib line ,how could you have taken a long position , Not that I am one to talk ,but I think maybe we are looking @ a diferent chart...
  • #709
  • Mar 18, 2006 1:28am Mar 18, 2006 1:28am
Quoting vinn234
Guys the chf never hit the second fib level on the daly chart ,and yes I have model 2 on the chf .This trade was a mistake from the start was to over anxious an wanting to get involved only when I got stop out and looked over the charts I relized that the trade should have never been taken. As far as being long the swiss Looking @ the chart as I typing ,and I dont see it .The daly bar has pentrated the 1st fib line ,how could you have taken a long position , Not that I am one to talk ,but I think maybe we are looking @ a diferent chart...
Hi Vinn,

Yes, our charts could be a little different depending on datafeed and charting software, but not so different that we'd be seeing different fibs being touched. When I said your short trade should have been long, I didn't mean from where you took your short trade. I meant the next trade will be long once the second fib is touched by price AND a then a reversal day signals the long trade.

Maybe the attached chart will clarify. Sorry about not being clearer.

BTW, it's very good of you to admit your mistake. That's hard for some people to do in public. Good for you! Now you can learn from it and get better at this VWB thingy!
Attached Image
sxaxlxvxaxtxixoxnxbxyxgxrxaxcxexdxoxtxoxrxgx
  • #710
  • Mar 18, 2006 7:09am Mar 18, 2006 7:09am
Quoting vinn234
Guys the chf never hit the second fib level on the daly chart ,and yes I have model 2 on the chf .This trade was a mistake from the start was to over anxious an wanting to get involved only when I got stop out and looked over the charts I relized that the trade should have never been taken. As far as being long the swiss Looking @ the chart as I typing ,and I dont see it .The daly bar has pentrated the 1st fib line ,how could you have taken a long position , Not that I am one to talk ,but I think maybe we are looking @ a diferent chart...
Patience is something you must master in order to achieve success as a trader. Wait, wait, wait some more, and then keep waiting until the very perfect set up pops on your screen, even if that means taking only a couple of trades a month. You gotta realize that two solid winners a month is enough to net a sweet bunch of pips for that month.

Patience and consistancy are the key!
  • #711
  • Mar 18, 2006 12:36pm Mar 18, 2006 12:36pm
thanks Dialist for the support and others on the site .Patience is wat is needed on my end ,that screw ou cost me 50 pips on 5lots
  • #712
  • Mar 19, 2006 4:00am Mar 19, 2006 4:00am
I thought that this may be of interest

I have attached a study on the probability of price movement continuation after a certain amount pip of initial movement.

It may help in our entry decisions in the different currency pair.
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip Forex Report - Predicting Price movement.zip   398 KB | 613 downloads
  • #713
  • Mar 19, 2006 4:40am Mar 19, 2006 4:40am
Quoting diallist
Quoting vinn234
Could use some insight on the trade I took this morning USD/CHF short.My entry of 1.2905 was on the 50% break of the asian session range of about 50pips It proceeded to reach the low of 1.2875 then it bounced to the high of 1.2955 just were I had my stops . Lost about 51 pips on the trade now the chf is @ 1.2897.. Bad day here!!! Could the reason for the trade lost be because the chf never Preached the 3rd fib line ,and I never saw it because thats the only explanation I could come up with . Just rushed into a trade ... dont know !!
Hi Vinn,

Both Vegas and James16 teach "Never let a winner turn into a loser." When you were up 30 pips you could have moved your stop to breakeven to convert your trade to a free trade. I've seen vegas move his stop to breakeven with as little as 10 pips of profit.

Another member of this forum did a study against a series of profitable trades he had made. He went back through the trades one by one and moved the stop to breakeven after a certain number of pips profit. The final profit on this series of trades was greater than before. Moving stops to breakeven quickly results in more stop-outs and misses a few runs, but eliminating many of the losses netted greater profit.

Trade opportunities are numerous. So what if getting stopped out at breakeven means you miss a subsequent run in the direction of the trade. There will always be other trades.
Hi,

Just a quick follow up. I find it helpful for myself to do my own research on when to move my trade to breakeven. For something like VWB II which is partly discretionary, the research is time consuming and the results will be unique for each person doing their own research.

One way to get an indication of when to move to breakeven is go back through the forex history data at 1 hr intervals or less and see how 'you' would have traded, and determine the pip/cash total depending on where you would have set the breakeven. Vary the breakeven to determine what you think is the best breakeven value/strategy for you. But also note that this what 'has' happened and the optimum breakeven value/strategy may be different in the future.

Best regards
Alan
  • #714
  • Mar 19, 2006 5:40am Mar 19, 2006 5:40am
Quoting firehorse
Hi,

Just a quick follow up. I find it helpful for myself to do my own research on when to move my trade to breakeven. For something like VWB II which is partly discretionary, the research is time consuming and the results will be unique for each person doing their own research.

One way to get an indication of when to move to breakeven is go back through the forex history data at 1 hr intervals or less and see how 'you' would have traded, and determine the pip/cash total depending on where you would have set the breakeven. Vary the breakeven to determine what you think is the best breakeven value/strategy for you. But also note that this what 'has' happened and the optimum breakeven value/strategy may be different in the future.

Best regards
Alan
I personally move the stop to breakeven at about +25 pips moreless. Every trade is different and going through past trades, specially with hindsight, is kinda useless in my opinion. So I picked the +25 pips figure as a fair compromise and, specially, to avoid any posibility of emotion-driven trading.
  • #715
  • Mar 19, 2006 4:47pm Mar 19, 2006 4:47pm
As far as these pairs go does anyone know wat ranges to look out for ,not the models i.e . GBP= 60pips . Dont want to creat any confusion like in the last post .
  • #716
  • Mar 19, 2006 9:14pm Mar 19, 2006 9:14pm
Vegas

Can I have confirmation that:

As EURCHF AND GBPJPY are on Model 1 (FIBS 89, 144, 233) the extreme FIB reversal levels of interest for both are the 89 (first) level and higher. You refer to a reversal at about 1.5720 on EURCHF. Yet on USDJPY Mod 1 starts at 144 (second FIB). Why is there this difference?

Thanks
  • #717
  • Mar 19, 2006 9:26pm Mar 19, 2006 9:26pm
Trinity,

USDJPY uses Model 1 but extreme fib is 144 as stated in VWB.

EURCHF uses Model 1 but extreme fib is 89.

GBPJPY uses Model 4 and extreme fib is 377.
The future depends on what we do in the present.
  • #718
  • Mar 19, 2006 10:33pm Mar 19, 2006 10:33pm
Quoting compro99
Trinity,

USDJPY uses Model 1 but extreme fib is 144 as stated in VWB.

EURCHF uses Model 1 but extreme fib is 89.

GBPJPY uses Model 4 and extreme fib is 377.
Yes, I should have noted Mod 4 for GBPJPY, compro99. I guess that historical volatility accounts for the different FIB areas of reversal interest between USDJPY and EURCHF unless there is another explanation, and that this could change.
  • #719
  • Mar 19, 2006 11:14pm Mar 19, 2006 11:14pm
Vegas,

Can you explain, how do u determine extreme fib line ?

This is for our info as market will change due to volatility.
The future depends on what we do in the present.
  • #720
  • Edited 3:42am Mar 20, 2006 3:22am | Edited 3:42am
G'day all,

Quoting compro99
Trinity,
USDJPY uses Model 1 but extreme fib is 144 as stated in VWB.
EURCHF uses Model 1 but extreme fib is 89.
GBPJPY uses Model 4 and extreme fib is 377.
Can somebody explain to me why risk model #4 is used for GBPJPY? Assuming my fib lines are correct, the appropriate fib is hardly (if ever) breached going back through history? I've been using models #1 and #3, as for GBPUSD.

Some clarification would be good.

Thanks,
Andrew.

EDIT: Nevermind...just saw Vegas' post re the 2 new pairs and setup accordingly...
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