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Fibonacci Indicator? Is it a big Joke?

  • #21
  • Jun 22, 2011 7:49am Jun 22, 2011 7:49am
Quoting Prochartist

fibo indicator is a total scam lol and a huge joke lol

happy trade
Coming from someone who has a thread called "thinking outside the box"

I will tell you.. fibs actually do work to some degree... I discovered why they appear to work a few months ago..

Unfortunately for fib users they don't know which level(ratio) price will retrace to.. with about 80-90% accuracy I can tell you which level it will retrace to in the fib



so what I'm getting to.. is there is an underlying cause that ultimately a person who has no clue of could use a fib. to benefit from to some degree




I'll conclude by saying your kinda like me.. so keep digging into things and you will begin to understand the underlying workings and seeing beyond what others see


  • #22
  • Jun 22, 2011 7:54am Jun 22, 2011 7:54am
To those who have had a light turn on. No indicator will, as a stand alone feature, provide you with a long term edge. In fact there is nothing in trading that by its own will give you long term success. Price action is flawed alone, fundamentals are flawed alone and indicators are flawed. It is the combination of these things that give you a slight edge. That doesnt mean that the more the better but using confluence with indicators and price action along with current and future market sentiment will give you far greater chances of success. However that is only a step in the right direction. There are still other things to consider such as your personality and emotional tolerances, the amount of time you can devote or can trade for and your determination to be patient and show discipline to execute your trades and allow them to work out, cutting losses when the results are what you were expecting or they are outside of your plan.

No 1 indicator will guarentee success so perhaps a better topic title would address this and not just pick Fibs as a stand alone 'joke' indicator.

RT
  • #23
  • Jun 22, 2011 8:04am Jun 22, 2011 8:04am
The market won't care about fibs, or any other indicator.

I believe indicators are simply misused. They're simply guides. You have to use the one that makes you feel comfortable trading with. I use moving averages. I never make oscillators to work for me. Does that mean oscillators are bad? no way. Some people I know trades on oscillators very good.

It's your choice.
  • #24
  • Jun 22, 2011 8:04am Jun 22, 2011 8:04am
It's amazing how many f%$king idiots there are in the world and how many of them are attracted to trading. It never ceases to amaze me.
  • #25
  • Jun 22, 2011 8:09am Jun 22, 2011 8:09am
Quoting newyear498
Coming from someone who has a thread called "thinking outside the box"

I will tell you.. fibs actually do work to some degree... I discovered why they appear to work a few months ago..

Unfortunately for fib users they don't know which level(ratio) price will retrace to.. with about 80-90% accuracy I can tell you which level it will retrace to in the fib



so what I'm getting to.. is there is an underlying cause that ultimately a person who has no clue of could use a fib. to benefit from to some degree




I'll conclude by saying...
Oh and its the same thing with trend lines as well.. underlying case but someone with a trend line can benefit from without any knowledge.. but they will also draw too many trend lines and get all confused and fucked up..
  • #26
  • Jun 22, 2011 8:15am Jun 22, 2011 8:15am
Quoting Dopey
It's amazing how many f%$king idiots there are in the world and how many of them are attracted to trading. It never ceases to amaze me.
  • #27
  • Jun 22, 2011 9:47am Jun 22, 2011 9:47am
Quoting eurotrash
The problem is not manipulation, shading, or anything of the sort. The problem is that there is no inherent reason why a line/fib/whatever you drew on your screen should have any effect whatsoever on the-market-at-large's (e.g. institutional traders, banks, hedge funds) decisions to buy or sell or offer liquidity, which ultimately is what makes the market move. If they happen to use the same analysis as you in the same way as you and come to the same decisions as you, and decide to trade on that with sufficient size to move the market...
My point was that any quoted price by a broker represents an executable offer that's in the interest of the broker to fill, while your broker may quote you x.xxxx on a pair in actuality the interbank market is offering a multitude of quotes (varying amounts at different levels) from various sources (some a good distance away)/ not just one specific price worldwide.

If for arguments sake that everyone wanted to buy at a .618 level of x.xxxx it would be impossible to fill "all" at that exact level. There are some here that believe if price exceeds a level by any amount it proves fibs/or for that matter anything does not work, when potential interest was there, their measurement stick for judgment is flawed by the natural mechanics of the market.

There's no universal law that mandates all traders to buy or sell at any given second or level, but there are repeatable patterns that exist in the market. I care not if they are defined by a line, a certain % of retracement or extension, time of day, etc. etc..... as long as I can profit is all that matters. Therefore I'm open to all possibilities.
  • #28
  • Jun 22, 2011 9:58am Jun 22, 2011 9:58am
Quoting Dopey
It's amazing how many f%$king idiots there are in the world and how many of them are attracted to trading. It never ceases to amaze me.
LOL
  • #29
  • Jun 22, 2011 10:20am Jun 22, 2011 10:20am
Quoting Razor_trader
To those who have had a light turn on. No indicator will, as a stand alone feature, provide you with a long term edge. In fact there is nothing in trading that by its own will give you long term success. Price action is flawed alone, fundamentals are flawed alone and indicators are flawed. It is the combination of these things that give you a slight edge. That doesnt mean that the more the better but using confluence with indicators and price action along with current and future market sentiment will give you far greater chances of success....
Totally agree.
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #30
  • Jun 22, 2011 11:30am Jun 22, 2011 11:30am
I don't use fibs, but I could care less if someone wants to trade with them. To each his own, trade with the stars if you want.

That being said, to those who say the market commonly retraces to fib levels, does it really? I mean does it really impact the market to that extent?

Because when I put a fib retracement on a chart and change the numbers to something more random (say 29%, 34%, 53%, 82%, whatever) the market seems to also commonly happen to hit a lot of those numbers on the dot, too. And Murrey math lines? The market seems to commonly hit those on the dot, too! Is it because these numbers mean something? The fact of the matter is you can put support/resistance lines anywhere on a chart, and just by matter of coincidence they will get hit, sometimes to the pip. Fibs have the added advantage of being near somewhat common retracement percentages, 1/3, 1/2, 2/3.

If you can trade profitably using them, or they aid you in other ways, then good on you. I just don't think the actual numbers themselves have much impact on the market, especially when they are very subjective. Put a fib retracement on a tick chart for a move that lasted 5 minutes and I can guarantee you that it will on occasion retrace exactly down to one of the fib lines and bounce off-- surely you'd agree that this is just a coincidence. At best the self-fulling prophecy may have its place, but I would tend to even dispute that because I just don't think enough movers and shakers care about them, at least compared to some other conventional technical tools that are more common and slightly less subjective.

Cheers.
  • #31
  • Jun 22, 2011 1:19pm Jun 22, 2011 1:19pm
If anyone will watch my chart and see my support and resistance lines on 1h chart eursud ... will directly notice all options are present and you will see the market is respecting them ...

these levels i did put them as following last weekend before market opened:

June 18 at 7:17pm
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Euro/Usd Monday chart map --- box between “1,4500 … 1,4070”

A- Levels Notes

1,4500 --- highest level of the current box where eurusd is playing now

1,4485 --- ((R5))
1,4450 --- ((R4))
1,4425 --- ((R3))
1,4380 --- ((R2))
--- 1,4340 --------- Level where the market is trying to build a resistance line for the market to go down after ((R1))

---1,4305 --- last friday closing level … where it show clearly market sentiment is up ... as this level will be watched from traders for 48h’s during the weekend

--- 1,4280 ------------ Level where the market is trying to build support line for the market to go further up ((S1))
1,4251 --- ((S2))
1,4210 --- ((S3))
1,4160 --- ((S4))
1,4127 --- ((S5))

1,4070 --- Lowest level of the current box where eurusd is playing now --- if broken more down to come.

B- Patterns notes
down - 3 candles --- 2 adjusting
d- 5 --- 2 a
d- 8 --- 1 a
d- 5 --- 10 a
d-2 --- 12 a
up – 3 candles --- 2 adjusting
d-6 --- 2 adjusting
up-7candles --- 5 adjusting

C- Patterns to watch for next week:

ii – adjustments moves
1- adjustment starting form 2 candles side way and start to build a plan … with the daily trend
2- adjustment for only one candle just watch the market
3- adjustment for 5 or 10 or 12 … start to think to go against the daily trend

iii- down moves
down moves might be aggressive as Greece crisis still on
1- down for 3 consecutive hours
2- down for 5 h
3- down for 8 h --- “if new economic drama came from Europe”

iiii- up moves
Up moves might fast and in a shorter time then down as it will be Euro getting support expect fast big moves up.
1- up for 3 consecutive hours
2- up for 5 h
3- up for 7 h

D- Other notes:

1- During up moves the most market is stopping on levels as 00. 40 . 10
2- During down moves the most market stop on levels as 80. 70. 50

General sentiment as Friday briefing before market opening next Monday …
Up move = support for Euro
--------------------------------------------------------------------------

Briefly these levels above measure all options in the market not only the fib ones ... if you want to be a professional trader you need to do a similar work ... NOT listening and believing a person from far far history who stole an idea of math from an old old indian way of calculating ...

enough defending Fibonacci indicator on chart, face it people its a big joke and it's only for marketing reasons studying the past to only get more clients ...

be wise traders and happy trade everyone
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: my chart eurusd s and r.JPG Size: 86 KB
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  • #32
  • Jun 22, 2011 1:22pm Jun 22, 2011 1:22pm
Quoting smittens4212
I don't use fibs, but I could care less if someone wants to trade with them. To each his own, trade with the stars if you want.

That being said, to those who say the market commonly retraces to fib levels, does it really? I mean does it really impact the market to that extent?

Because when I put a fib retracement on a chart and change the numbers to something more random (say 29%, 34%, 53%, 82%, whatever) the market seems to also commonly happen to hit a lot of those numbers on the dot, too. And Murrey math lines? The market seems to commonly...
I agree with you 100%, a trader is free to put support and resistance he want in a free way ... without putting him self in the fib levels only ... the best traders, the ones the market give them pips are ones who study market thinking out of the box ... the ones who lose always are ones following indicators easy to go against them ... wish you a profitable week
Forex
  • #33
  • Jun 22, 2011 1:32pm Jun 22, 2011 1:32pm
Quoting Dopey
It's amazing how many f%$king idiots there are in the world and how many of them are attracted to trading. It never ceases to amaze me.
Let me be so clear, history never repeat it self ... go back 1000 years and you will see each year is special in it's form ... crisis happen always in a new special way ... if you waist your time studying the history you will lose the present and the future ... in life or in forex ...

The history you need to look at it same as the small mirror in your car when you drive which show you the road behind you ... to avoid speedy car's which might pass you ... but all your view in driving is for the present WHEN YOU ARE DRIVING ... and all your focusing is on the future the road which show you signs how to follow it ...

Now imagine a driver will put fib levels on a road and avoid one corner ... what will happen to this driver ? he will endup outside the road ... think about it good and you will know that fib don't show you all levels of support and resistance ... and it will make you lose the big picture of the chart to only see what big players want you to see to make the hunt for them more easy ... and take all your exposed money in your open trades

no one in forex is an idiot we all want to make money, only a forex idiot is the one who love an indicator or a system even if this system made him lose money all the time and he/she still believe in it

happy trade for you --- trader
Forex
  • #34
  • Jun 22, 2011 2:00pm Jun 22, 2011 2:00pm
Quoting Prochartist
Let me be so clear, history never repeat it self ... go back 1000 years and you will see each year is special in it's form ... crisis happen always in a new special way ... if you waist your time studying the history you will lose the present and the future ... in life or in forex ...

wow.

Quoting Prochartist
the Forex market is a wild market in most cases don't respect or follow any indicator at all hahaha ... in other words Forex is unpredictibale
Quote
there’s no natural law on the chart to respect for example gravity … cos there's no gravity on charts ... if one big player start shorting the market and the market go down simple as that …
Quote
Briefly all chart indicators are simply used for marketing, marketing, marketing ... with time a professional trader will trade based on a naked chart …
u ridicule Fib & indicators... but your chart above has indicators?
  • #35
  • Jun 22, 2011 2:05pm Jun 22, 2011 2:05pm
Quoting Prochartist
Let me be so clear, history never repeat it self...
There you go again...

I guess I'll just yield to the old adage:

Opinions are like @$$holes... everyones got one...
Carpe Divitiae
  • #36
  • Jun 22, 2011 2:14pm Jun 22, 2011 2:14pm
Quoting supremeChaos

wow.




u ridicule Fib & indicators... but your chart above has indicators?
hahaha, indicators that worth putting on my chart ... go see the lovely fall on eurusd and tell me fib levels can let you see it

Fractals is the best indicator ever ... fib is the biggest joke ever
Forex
  • #37
  • Jun 22, 2011 2:20pm Jun 22, 2011 2:20pm
Quoting fsiltd
There you go again...

I guess I'll just yield to the old adage:

Opinions are like @$$holes... everyones got one...
all predictors agree on one thing ((past performance is no guarantee of future results,...)) also i will add ((past moves is no guarantee of future same moves)) ... also will add the market is alive, traders need to stop been dead in the past with old rusty indicators like fib ... and catch the ride and make pips ...

all is based on 100% luck in forex ... this is the naked truth
Forex
  • #38
  • Jun 22, 2011 2:35pm Jun 22, 2011 2:35pm
Quoting Razor_trader
To those who have had a light turn on. No indicator will, as a stand alone feature, provide you with a long term edge. In fact there is nothing in trading that by its own will give you long term success. Price action is flawed alone, fundamentals are flawed alone and indicators are flawed. It is the combination of these things that give you a slight edge. That doesnt mean that the more the better but using confluence with indicators and price action along with current and future market sentiment will give you far greater chances of success....
Finally a sensible post!!!
Confluence is the POINT.
A deserved 10W
  • #39
  • Jun 22, 2011 2:41pm Jun 22, 2011 2:41pm
Quoting Prochartist
If anyone will watch my chart and see my support and resistance lines on 1h chart eursud ... will directly notice all options are present and you will see the market is respecting them ...

these levels i did put them as following last weekend before market opened:

June 18 at 7:17pm
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Euro/Usd Monday chart map --- box between “1,4500 … 1,4070”

A- Levels Notes

1,4500 --- highest level of the current box where eurusd is playing now

1,4485 --- ((R5))
1,4450 --- ((R4))
1,4425...
Glad to see you finally got to the point you wanted to make. I agree with you about the importance of S and R levels. I have some very specific rules about selecting these levels and find S/R levels to be important. On the other hand, I also know how and when to use fib levels (for my trading style) and find fibs just as important for my trading style.

By the way, your frequent use of the "hahaha" phrase is very distracting and takes away from the point you are trying to make. Now, instead of talking down fibs, perhaps you can lead a discussion about how to pick good S and R levels.

I am leaving this thread so good luck and good trading everyone!
  • #40
  • Jun 22, 2011 3:01pm Jun 22, 2011 3:01pm
Quoting GEfx
Glad to see you finally got to the point you wanted to make. I agree with you about the importance of S and R levels. I have some very specific rules about selecting these levels and find S/R levels to be important. On the other hand, I also know how and when to use fib levels (for my trading style) and find fibs just as important for my trading style.

By the way, your frequent use of the "hahaha" phrase is very distracting and takes away from the point you are trying to make. Now, instead of talking down fibs, perhaps you can lead...
the true profit in life you get as a human is when you have good time and laugh ... if we don't joke when we trade it will not be fun ... from this thread i m trying to let traders learn and have fun ... all indicators are funny and market always fool them ...

You should see how much EA (( robots are stupid )) ... when market hunt them ... what is important in forex is the following :

1- market daily sentiment --- following 1h chart for eurusd for example ... fractal will allow you to see when market switch sentiment
2- support and resistance, studying the close history ... yesterday or last week.
3- to have the physic to support stress to be a daily trader, a strong, prudent, always ready daily brave trader.
4- cut lose small and let profits grow ... each big lost start small ... by cutting it small you set your self free from it when it's small
5- profits always take them by controlling your greed good

now about support and resistance ... always see where market is stopping and we always have 100 points to follow on chart for example always 80 levels are hard to break then the 50 level then the 20 to pass for another 100 points for example from 1.4000 to 1.4100 market need to pass with 1.4020 then 1.4050 then 1.4080 to reach 1.4100 ...

any trader even new ones can make a similar indicator same as fibo even better for example taking a box where market is moving then cutting the 50% of it then 25% of each and you will be holding the market from it's neck ... and you will control your trade on 1h chart as a brave trader in the arena of forex ...

Don't be sensitive ladies who love fibo indicator ... just we are joking here and i have a big heart to accept all comments as much they are under a level of respect

for not using the ((hahaha)) replying to you will replace it with the lllooooool

happy trade --- trader
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