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Silent Service Method

  • #12,541
  • Jun 16, 2011 1:45am Jun 16, 2011 1:45am
Quoting Venice
Eg, know we chatted in the euro thread for a bit... what are you looking for on euro as far as total downside?

I'm currently looking for 408x to 404x before we get a nice little bounce.
1.4090 this was my target for this week.
Now just watching and wait to make my next move
  • #12,542
  • Jun 16, 2011 1:48am Jun 16, 2011 1:48am
Quoting clockwork71
I believe that the EUR/USD pair is going down over time. In fact, I think sooner or later - the EU itself is going to have to be reconfigured. Think of it this way: If you live in Germany, why would you want to bail out people in Greece, Portugal, Italy, etc? There simply is too large of a divide between the north and the south. (Can you imagine when this happens - there would be an exodus of Italian players suddenly heading towards places like Germany and Holland to play for their clubs. The Eredivisie might be more than a battle between...
U r right 100% This has been said since May 2010 but politicians keep pushing it to wrong direction.

I post it this video last year and will post again
Inserted Video
  • #12,543
  • Jun 16, 2011 3:54am Jun 16, 2011 3:54am
Hi
I've been reading the posts. Have not read eery post yet. This method is interesting. I have seen how it retests the levels. I would like to find out more about the zone. How do you set the area for the zone? I have seen charts but no posts that explains this. Or I am sorry if I do not understand this.
I have also been reading Bobokus' fibonacci method. Have been using this two methods together (well from this method, drawing the line).
Thanks in advance for explanation.
  • #12,544
  • Jun 16, 2011 8:29am Jun 16, 2011 8:29am
Quoting clockwork71
Looks like the EUR/CHF is ready to go lower yet again. THIS IS WHY YOU PAY ATTENTION TO TRENDS, AND FORGET ABOUT PICKING THE BOTTOM OF A MARKET!!!!!
Nice call... as we see, EURCHF is reaching all an all time low. I'm surprised that Dutch and German bond rates remain so low. If we produce debt to finance other countries' (bad) debt, the "good" and "bad" rates are bound to converge, at least by a bit, right? I mean, I don't see Greece paying much back, and there's only limited room for raising taxes or cutting spending in Northern Europe, so surely our financing activies raise the risk on our debt.

By the way, I enjoy reading your passionate posts about Dutch football.
The nail that sticks out gets hammered back in
  • #12,545
  • Jun 16, 2011 9:12am Jun 16, 2011 9:12am
Quoting mrnt
Hi
I've been reading the posts. Have not read eery post yet. This method is interesting. I have seen how it retests the levels. I would like to find out more about the zone. How do you set the area for the zone? I have seen charts but no posts that explains this. Or I am sorry if I do not understand this.
I have also been reading Bobokus' fibonacci method. Have been using this two methods together (well from this method, drawing the line).
Thanks in advance for explanation.
A zone is often a somewhat flexible thing. In general, you are looking for action around and near a round number. For example, 1.40 might be an area that you expect a reaction. If price went all the way up to 1.4018, this doesn't mean that it's a break out, if it turns around and falls. It really comes down to closing price. I am glad to hear feedback like yours, because it reminds me that I need to explain some of the basic things as well.

A zone isn't tightly defined. It's an area.......something like saying "The Arabic World", it isn't completely defined, but in general you know the main countries in it.....hope that makes sense.

Chris
  • #12,546
  • Jun 16, 2011 9:21am Jun 16, 2011 9:21am
Pandora just sank below yesterday's IPO price. LinkenIn still isn't near the highs. This is fun, because the Tech bubble of the 90's was a ton of fun, and it looks like we are trying to repeat it?
  • #12,547
  • Jun 16, 2011 7:14pm Jun 16, 2011 7:14pm
Hi Chris,
For some reason video on your blog does not work ( I tried IE and Chrome).
I remember someone had raised similar issue last time. I get following error

"200, Stream not found, NetStream.Play.StreamNotFound, clip: '[Clip] 'http://www.thetraderguy.com/videos/June15video.mov''


cheers
  • #12,548
  • Jun 16, 2011 7:45pm Jun 16, 2011 7:45pm
Quoting Imphilomath
Hi Chris,
For some reason video on your blog does not work ( I tried IE and Chrome).
I remember someone had raised similar issue last time. I get following error

"200, Stream not found, NetStream.Play.StreamNotFound, clip: '[Clip] 'http://www.thetraderguy.com/videos/June15video.mov''


cheers
I got the same too Chris......have not tried today though.....
  • #12,549
  • Jun 16, 2011 9:19pm Jun 16, 2011 9:19pm
Quoting Imphilomath
Hi Chris,
For some reason video on your blog does not work ( I tried IE and Chrome).
I remember someone had raised similar issue last time. I get following error

"200, Stream not found, NetStream.Play.StreamNotFound, clip: '[Clip] 'http://www.thetraderguy.com/videos/June15video.mov''


cheers
That's because I am an idiot! Try it now.....lol
  • #12,550
  • Jun 16, 2011 9:38pm Jun 16, 2011 9:38pm
Quoting clockwork71
That's because I am an idiot! Try it now.....lol
worked :-) great video. I still find it difficult to get used to the fact that the trend is my friend and I should stick to the direction of the trend. Every time it retraces, it feels like that might be trend change :-).

Do you identify trend on weekly and then trade daily?

I guess trends do not change that quickly.

cheers Chris
  • #12,551
  • Jun 17, 2011 12:27am Jun 17, 2011 12:27am
Quoting Imphilomath
worked :-) great video. I still find it difficult to get used to the fact that the trend is my friend and I should stick to the direction of the trend. Every time it retraces, it feels like that might be trend change :-).

Do you identify trend on weekly and then trade daily?

I guess trends do not change that quickly.

cheers Chris
I always define the trend by weekly charts. I will trade off the daily or four hour charts. (one hour as well - but only if I already know I am looking for a trade at a BIG spot for example.)
  • #12,552
  • Jun 17, 2011 8:02am Jun 17, 2011 8:02am
Looks like there are hints of the Germans giving a bit on the bondholders must take a bit of the pain stance. Because of this, the world is happier about Greece this morning, and everything is great again. At least that is how the markets are acting. Another band aid has been applied, and we bounce for the moment it seems. Because of this, I have closed out my EUR/CHF shorts for a nice profit, but will be looking to sell again at higher levels.

(It should also be said that the bullish pinbar at the bottom got triggered for a buy signal - not that I would do that, but it does signal a possible upcoming up move....)
  • #12,553
  • Jun 17, 2011 10:26am Jun 17, 2011 10:26am
Decided to go flat because of the various headline risks over the weekend....

Went to the Columbus Zoo instead...
  • #12,554
  • Jun 17, 2011 8:32pm Jun 17, 2011 8:32pm
Hmmmm......looks like the market is winding up for a nice risk-on move on Monday. Of course, there is that whole thing about one of the ratings agencies, (I believe it was Moody's?) putting Italy's credit rating on review for a possible downgrade. Interesting......

I for one am going to avoid the EUR/USD for a minute.....
  • #12,555
  • Jun 17, 2011 11:33pm Jun 17, 2011 11:33pm
Usdchf and chfjpy are both setting up nicely though.
  • #12,556
  • Jun 20, 2011 9:07am Jun 20, 2011 9:07am
EUR/CHF falls again. All of you should be looking at this pair and thinking, "If I only had sold it every time it rallied!!!"

There is a lesson in that.
  • #12,557
  • Jun 20, 2011 10:01am Jun 20, 2011 10:01am
We are currently seeing strength in the gold markets. Some people say that Friday's action was option expiry related. Leaving that possibility alone, I believe that the move has fundamental merit. I should note at the same time that the base metals (copper, iron, zinc) are falling. What does this say in general? Also, what does it say about the outlook for the FX markets?

This is the kind of thing that can help with a longer-term outlook, not a two hour trade........
  • #12,558
  • Jun 20, 2011 1:30pm Jun 20, 2011 1:30pm
All the signs are starting to point in a risk off direction. Personally I think the Greek bankruptcy is closer than most think.

My job is as safe as a job can be, but I feel for the many that will be thrown into poverty and unemployment when the second round of the financial crisis strikes.

Poverty, soon in a neighborhood close to you - brought to you by international bankers in cooperation with Greece...
  • #12,559
  • Jun 20, 2011 5:27pm Jun 20, 2011 5:27pm
Quoting clockwork71
We are currently seeing strength in the gold markets. Some people say that Friday's action was option expiry related. Leaving that possibility alone, I believe that the move has fundamental merit. I should note at the same time that the base metals (copper, iron, zinc) are falling. What does this say in general? Also, what does it say about the outlook for the FX markets?

This is the kind of thing that can help with a longer-term outlook, not a two hour trade........
Gold is a "safe" haven, during bad times people like to own gold, physical or otherwise in the same way that they like to own Swiss francs (are the two by any chance related, I don't think Switzerland is a huge producer of gold is it? They do make jewelery from gold though I think?)

I may be wrong but the dollar used to be the safe haven for smart investors. If gold and the chf are both showing strength and let's say for arguments sake that the US economy might look a bit shaky (oh wait, it does!) then that would mean people selling their dollars and buying gold or chf.

I'd say the answer to the riddle is to look for dollar weakness in all related pairs. Mind you that is showing itself a valid outlook from a technical point of view also.
  • #12,560
  • Jun 20, 2011 6:16pm Jun 20, 2011 6:16pm
Quoting clockwork71
We are currently seeing strength in the gold markets. Some people say that Friday's action was option expiry related. Leaving that possibility alone, I believe that the move has fundamental merit. I should note at the same time that the base metals (copper, iron, zinc) are falling. What does this say in general? Also, what does it say about the outlook for the FX markets?

This is the kind of thing that can help with a longer-term outlook, not a two hour trade........
Hugh had a decent answer for this, but let me share what it means to me:

The fact that gold is rising, and base metals are falling kills off the idea that expiration of the options market was the reason for gold strength. Several of the base metals had expiry on Friday as well. It would seem that they would all get stronger on reversals of positions, etc.

So what does this say? Gold going up means that the need to own something besides fiat currency. This is because of the problems in the EU, and the USA as well. I think this shows that interest rates will stay low in the major economies. (EU, US, Japan) Hardly a stretch if you think about it. QE3 is coming, although they will call it something else.

The base metals falling also shows a weakening outlook for global economies in general. The Chinese are trying like hell to slow down their economy, and they will sooner or later. But the lack of base metals being consumed simply means that the world isn't building much at the moment. This is probably true as far as I can tell. Obviously there are some exceptions here and there - think India as an example, but in general most economies aren't exactly robust. Besides, if an economy like Malaysia is booming, who cares? It is like saying things are great in Oregon. Sure, it matters if you are there - but it doesn't exactly change the world economy.

The FX markets will reflect this. The EUR and USD should both continue to suffer as the rates stay low. The Yen really should be as well - but there are totally different dynamics going on there. Best currencies to own in a situation like this? Where the little bit of growth is - Asia.

Unfortunately, most Asian currencies aren't easy to own. There are various ETFs you can trade that have a basket of them. (I highly recommend these) But, some brokers will offer the Singapore Dollar, Malaysian Ringgit, Taiwan Dollar, Korean Won, and Thai Bhat. I like all of these currencies (in general), and I think they will do well in the relative near future. Probably the most common one of these is the Singapore Dollar. If you don't trade it - take a look at it. It tends to be pegged to the Chinese Yuan. (The Sing Dollar is pegged in a complex formula) Because of this, the currency tends to move very slowly and methodically. Not a bad thing in markets like this to be honest.

Chris
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