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Trading Price Pivots

  • #141
  • Jun 20, 2011 9:00am Jun 20, 2011 9:00am
When I technically analyze markets, my starting point always begins with the highest timeframe. The highest TF defines the Primary trends. Within the Primary exists lesser trends based on secondary and intermediate timeframes. The ones I am concerned with are the following:
Yearly, Quarterly, Monthly, Weekly and Daily.
1- Looking at the EU monthly, it looks like this pair seems to be in a steady uptrend since 2000. If we look closer i.e. to the last three years, it has made 2 lower highs (one of which is possibly in the making as we speak) and 2 lower lows.
2- The daily shows that this quarter is doing a similar sequence as in 1 above.
3- The monthly has been clearly rejected from climbing higher (up until now) from an area very close to 1.5
4- The weekly has a H-L-LH sequence but with a major breakout and bounce (retest of breakout) off the trendline extending from the high in 2008 down to the high in 2009.
5- The daily has also a H-L-LH sequence

What we have discussed in this thread so far is all fine in terms of major line bounces/breaches and etc… but what I want to draw your attention to now is the fact that Primary trends always prevail in the long term. What I mean by that is, the low made in May 2011 is very significant to me. Normally, price will never go past a MAJOR TRENDLINE and or MAJOR LINE (not even for one pip) unless it has future intentions to resume that move. If we zoom in closer and look at that particular day in May, 23-05-2011, I see a very bold bearish candle that shows me its intentions i.e. opened just above that trenline and closed nicely below it.
I trade all trends; primary, secondary, intermediate and etc… The short positions I am currently in are either going to die on me with some profit or they will grow with the resumption of the down move. Am I in longs as well… sure I am… I have positions still open since January 2011. Do my stops get hit? Sure they do, that’s why they are there…
I did not take any longs today because I cannot just discount the bold bearish candles that were made so far this month. Before I don’t see clear bullish strength (specifically on D1), there are no longs for me.
  • #142
  • Jun 20, 2011 9:43am Jun 20, 2011 9:43am
Quoting Chantalb
EURUSD Monthly

Had this been the end of the month with such a rejection off this trendline i.e. breakout and retest, I'd be ALL IN LONG and very heavy mind you.... But the RSI looks like it has found its top. So I urge you, trade very carefully until you get clear signals. You can scalp and the best way to do so is go to BE as soon as you are +20 or so...
Cheers
Chantal
Hi chantalb,

Dont your think the Eurozone issue might make the dollar stronger at least in the short term.?
D labour of a fool wearieth him cos he doesn't know how to enta d city
  • #143
  • Jun 20, 2011 10:00am Jun 20, 2011 10:00am
Quoting lordgbengs
Hi chantalb,

Dont your think the Eurozone issue might make the dollar stronger at least in the short term.?
We are about to find out, aren't we

By the way I did not forget about the charts you requested, it's just that what I was discussing then is very obvious and you can look at it for yourself.
Thanks,

Chantal
  • #144
  • Jun 20, 2011 10:04am Jun 20, 2011 10:04am
Quoting chromeie
i have open ea for few week already but there is no trading making by itself. i have try different ea but still the same, can you help me check for it
Buddy you are in the wrong thread
  • #145
  • Jun 20, 2011 11:03am Jun 20, 2011 11:03am
Hi guys, no much time, but look at this nice setup

weekly PIN touching 0.8000 level, then scaling to diaoly TF (pin bar and cofirmation candle) - put fibo on those 2 candles and you can see nice double bottom pin bars on 50% level ... look at that momentum in next candles

green pips to all of you (btw: excelent thread Chantalb )
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDUSD.jpg Size: 372 KB
  • #146
  • Edited 11:41am Jun 20, 2011 11:27am | Edited 11:41am
Quoting kapybara
Hi guys, no much time, but look at this nice setup

weekly PIN touching 0.8000 level, then scaling to diaoly TF (pin bar and cofirmation candle) - put fibo on those 2 candles and you can see nice double bottom pin bars on 50% level ... look at that momentum in next candles

green pips to all of you (btw: excelent thread Chantalb )
Thank you Kapybara,

Nice trade, I hope you took it. Just keep in mind a SL and also if I were you I'd take it to BE now cause you are lurking in very dangerous waters... Look out for heavy sellers... Chart is below... Look at the thick red horizontal line...
Chantal

Also Look at the 4hr for clues chart 2
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nzdusd monthly.gif Size: 43 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: nzdusd 4hr rsi.gif Size: 44 KB
  • #147
  • Jun 20, 2011 11:41am Jun 20, 2011 11:41am
Quoting Chantalb
Thank you Kapybara,

Nice trade, I hope you took it. Just keep in mind a SL and also if I were you I'd take it to BE now cause you are lurking in very dangerous waters... Look out for heavy sellers... Chart is below... Look at the thick red horizontal line...
Chantal
Hi Chantal,

unfortunately I didn't take that trade, I just noticed that setup 1 hour ago and wanted to share w/ all of you here as a ... let me say "book example" ...

I see that resistance level and I know, this is dangerous zone right now ... when you take a look at monthly chart, the up move was rejected and this month can continue down (breaking 0.8000, engulf previous bullish candle ... when you look at weekly pin bar candle, this could be also hanging man candle and now can be simply confirmed by bearish candle) - so this rejection on 0.8000 level could be temporary. If I would take that trade, I would move my SL to BE already.

I just wanted to show by this example, how simple is your trading idea/system you are talking about

Once again, thanks for your wisdom you share here. Keep it up.
  • #148
  • Jun 20, 2011 8:05pm Jun 20, 2011 8:05pm
Hi Chantalb and all the rest.

If I may say so.
I like this method because there is the possibility to get in the flow of the market at a good price, reducing the risks.

What I am not convinced about is all this technical analysis, for me TA does not work, at least in currencies, it is easy to make comments after the facts.

Now we can use emas, RSI, resistance/support or what ever to justify and comfort our actions, but if FORD is investing in Spain, the dollar is going down against the euro and they do not care what the TA indicates.

But what we can do is this: we can determine the force in the last couple days and try to get in at a good price hoping that it will continue in that direction, I say hoping because nobody know really what is going to happen next .

How do we determine the direction of the last couple days? with an engulfing patter on the daily TF as it had happened in eurusd. (see pic). Once that occurred we draw the Fibo as you indicated, we wait for the retracement in the 1 hour TF and for a further ungulfing pattern in our direction.

We place our SL below the pattern and after that we trail our SL by the daily candle until stopped out.

This is what I think, but what do I know anyway.
Your thoughts are very much appreciated.

All The Best
Il Brigante
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #149
  • Edited 3:40am Jun 21, 2011 3:22am | Edited 3:40am
Quoting il brigante
Hi Chantalb and all the rest.

If I may say so.
All The Best
Il Brigante
I get your point and it is very valid. We may come from different backgrounds when it comes to assessing the markets. Technical analysis is not something I disregard cause price is everything and through it a lot can be seen. Therefore, for me at least it is not after the fact that I use RSI for instance; it only seems so when I give examples of it. If you look at EURUSD 1hr chart, RSI and price are at a divergence as we speak. To me this is a sign of potential weakness in PA, i.e. Price is making Higher Highs while the oscillator is not following, and it actually is making Lower Highs.

Another thing, in currencies we all get different daily candles. Mine does not correspond to yours as you will see in my daily chart. I have no bullish engulfing candle. I use GMT charts because I found them to be the best since they are closest to mirror London action. But then again this is a personal preference.

Also I tend to add Sunday and Monday bars together
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu daily no engulfing.gif Size: 35 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eu 1hr rsi div.gif Size: 38 KB
  • #150
  • Jun 21, 2011 3:58am Jun 21, 2011 3:58am
This is a EURUSD GMT daily chart where Sundays and Mondays are added together...
I don’t like Sunday bars so I tend to completely ignore them most of the time.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU Daily No Sunday Bar.JPG Size: 100 KB
  • #151
  • Jun 21, 2011 4:17am Jun 21, 2011 4:17am
Hi Chantal,

Hope all is great with you today ... i will do my best to grow up by following your rules here yet, usually i would like to share ideas as you know 2 heads is better then one or 10 heads are better then one ... lately i m only trading eurusd, gbpusd, and gold ... cos i have other obligations to do each day other then trading Forex ... here's my questions to try to fit here according to your rules:
1- can i talk about fundamentals as i see it from my eyes? as you know to trick the market you need to be more trickier then the tricky forex
2- can i share time frame of 4h following your setup? or the daily chart? but i love 1h as it's for me the front line the battle zone ... i would love more to talk about 1h chart as it's like hunting birds but hunting pips
3- no matter what i share here do know its from a good heart, and you know how much you are a dear friend to me ... just i came trying to share all in a good way to make the thread more alive yet i made you angry ... from 3 replies ... if you want me to reply here my ideas about the market will be a pleasure and an honor ... usually i m using my facebook wall lately ...

Waiting for your feed back to know how to be an active member in your thread in a way to keep on following the spirit of your thread.

Just was reviewing your comments and between lines i saw internet trolls are stalking with you ... my advise to you sister is simple to protect your self online:
- block - delete - report - but never close this thread cos you are doing a wonderful work and you are the most professional trader i met in my 5 years ... and you are teaching traders how to make money ... otc brokers will hate you "cos they want traders to be lost and lose money" IB traders will hate you cos they make commissions when traders lose ... briefly it's a dirty business forex full of wolves and if you are not a wolf wolves will eat you in life or in forex ... i know you a real brave, strong, wise woman i hope your thread will always be here forever

Wish you a great trading week
Forex
  • #152
  • Jun 21, 2011 4:35am Jun 21, 2011 4:35am
Eur/usd made double top on 1,4380 showing a strong resistance and a fractal is shown also i got a confirmation from qqe, so went short from 1,4326 stop lose 1,4380 ((50 pips) and take profits 100 pips = 1,4229 ... here's my first plan for today
If you want i will study bigger time frames as 4h and daily but as i told you before 1h is the most alive for me as if like living in the present
Hope i will be lucky in my first trade today.

Best wishes
Forex
  • #153
  • Jun 21, 2011 4:55am Jun 21, 2011 4:55am
Quoting Prochartist
Hi Chantal,
Quoting Prochartist

here's my questions to try to fit here according to your rules:
1- can i talk about fundamentals as i see it from my eyes? as you know to trick the market you need to be more trickier then the tricky forex
2- can i share time frame of 4h following your setup? or the daily chart? but i love 1h as it's for me the front line the battle zone ... i would love more to...


Quoting Prochartist
Eur/usd made double top on 1,4380 showing a strong resistance and a fractal is shown also i got a confirmation from qqe, so went short from 1,4326 stop lose 1,4380 ((50 pips) and take profits 100 pips = 1,4229 ... If you want i will study bigger time frames as 4h and daily but as i told you before 1h is the most alive for me as if like living in the present
Quoting Prochartist
Hope i will be lucky in my first trade today.

Best wishes



Tony what we have here is a very specific way of doing things. If price does not fit our criteria we simply don’t trade, we wait for a better set up. Yes I know you are still trading what I taught you long ago, however I have come a long way since and I no longer scalp the lower TFs not even the one hour. I am not looking for 10 or 20 pips as I did even though I was having great results. I am in a position to stay until either the market takes me out or if I decide to take profit at a major line.
Tony please if you want to post here, do that while respecting the method like for example member Kapybara (post 145) did yesterday.
I insist on keeping this thread very clean, what this means is not for it to get sidetracked. Once a thread is off tracks it dies…. So if I may suggest something, and that is for you to open your own thread where you can talk all the fundies you like to your heart’s desire and also post your trades. I then will surely drop by and be a regular… ok? ... Great so now we have an understanding FINALLY
  • #154
  • Jun 21, 2011 5:12am Jun 21, 2011 5:12am
[quote=Chantalb;4710566][font=Calibri][size=3]I get your point and it is very valid. We may come from different backgrounds when it comes to assessing the markets. Technical analysis is..

Hi Chantalb.

I know what you mean. Also I think is important that we trade to match our personality.

Divergence in RSI? 1 hour time frame? it could not be relevant for a reversal, and could be just be a slow down of the latest force.
So which is the latest force? Do you agree is the bullish engulfing? (GMT or NOT).
Anyway we can go on and on this.......

What I think is important is that we work together exchanging knowledge for a common goal.

I am going to trade for a while this way because it suit me and I will be happy to share if you wish.

Cheers
IB
  • #155
  • Jun 21, 2011 5:30am Jun 21, 2011 5:30am
Daily trading fit my personality more, as i like to sleep at night deeply with no open trades worries ... still for me so early to trade long term trades

tried to start a thread it say (((You need four or more vouchers to start a thread in the Interactive Trading forum))) ... this website is like torturing lol ... also they say members will give you vouchers according to your replies ... so do me a favor by giving me few recommendations by vouchers ... to start a funny thread for eurusd hahaha ... which will be a thread full of jokes more then trading ... i like the idea waiting from some vouchers ... all i need is 4 i think
Forex
  • #156
  • Jun 21, 2011 5:44am Jun 21, 2011 5:44am
[quote=il brigante;4710967]
Quoting Chantalb
[font=Calibri][size=3]I get your point and it is very valid. We may come from different backgrounds when it comes to assessing the markets. Technical analysis is..

Hi Chantalb.

I know what you mean. Also I think is important that we trade to match our personality.
What I think is important is that we work together exchanging knowledge for a common goal.
I am going to trade for a while this way because it suit me and I will be happy to share if you wish.
Cheers
IB
I absolutely agree with you that we work together to achieve a common goal. That was exactly why I decided to open this thread in the first place. Yes kindly do share your trades; it would be interesting for people to be able to use a similar approach to the same method.
For me as long as we don’t take out the open of the last bold bearish candle of the 15th with a strong bullish D1 close above it, we still are in bear territory.
Also if you look at each candle individually and mark its midpoint, we still haven’t had a midpoint close above the midpoint of the 15th YET… All this in my mind adds up as weakness… So we’ll see… If there is one thing I do is I am never in a hurry to trade, if I like PA then I trade, if not I just sit aside and manage my open positions.
  • #157
  • Jun 21, 2011 5:51am Jun 21, 2011 5:51am
Quoting Prochartist
Daily trading fit my personality more, as i like to sleep at night deeply with no open trades worries ... still for me so early to trade long term trades

tried to start a thread it say (((You need four or more vouchers to start a thread in the Interactive Trading forum))) ... this website is like torturing lol ... also they say members will give you vouchers according to your replies ... so do me a favor by giving me few recommendations by vouchers ... to start a funny thread for eurusd hahaha ... which will be a thread full of jokes more...
Try “Trading Discussion” you shouldn’t have an issue there.
  • #158
  • Jun 21, 2011 6:22am Jun 21, 2011 6:22am
[quote=Chantalb;4711047][quote=il brigante;4710967]

You are probably right.

I am long cadjpy, risked 22 pips, gained my risk and I am moving my SL to BE.

IB
  • #159
  • Jun 21, 2011 6:23am Jun 21, 2011 6:23am
sorry here the pics.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cadjpy daily.jpg Size: 193 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: hourly.jpg Size: 227 KB
  • #160
  • Edited 7:08am Jun 21, 2011 6:57am | Edited 7:08am
Quoting il brigante
sorry here the pics.
Yes nicely done, I see you have your stop below you pivot low on 1hr… this is another way of placing stops. But since I trade longer term and got burned many times by placing my stops in such areas (as in below/above 1hr PP) only to see price resume into my direction, I decided to place them based on daily.
IB, since you are trading an upswing you fib should start from the low and extend to the high… you have it reversed. In the correct projection, from low to high, the 1hr pivot low would have got rejected off the 50% almost to the pip. Chart attached…

Edit: No no the only diff is you have the 61.8 & 38.2 reversed (that makes a big difference)... your pic is so dark I missed the 50%
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cadjpy-ib.gif Size: 35 KB
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