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Thinking Outside the Box!?!

  • #521
  • Jun 19, 2011 8:03am Jun 19, 2011 8:03am
Originally Rhetorical questions but I suppose its best to clarify this valuable information.


would someone feel the need to defend their beliefs? - first off if they are pissed you challenged it they have a lot of work to do and are currently not psychologically fit to trade (and I say these as 90% the cases). But also they clearly fear what they believe not being true.. which must lead you to conclude they are still seeking to find it true.. or subconscious doubts in beliefs, possibly seeking of confirmation bias as well..

Why would someone accept something without reflecting deeply on the matter? - because they want it to be true.. remember when you were new.. you just wanted to find a million dollar easy system... you accepted everything as true because you wanted it to be true.

(nubcake maybe you said that, maybe thats where I got the idea to reflect on it in the past )



Thinking Outside the Box - this thread is important IMHO for not the illusion of finding the outside the box.. but better put Thinking Outside the Box

for thats what its brought, and you gotta go to that place to get the the next





as for the nubcake incident, Call ronnie and tell him "blue ice loves the thunder", then meet me at applebees with a box of chocolates, and 50 grand in cash. If anyone follows you abort the mission.


NY
  • #522
  • Jun 19, 2011 8:17am Jun 19, 2011 8:17am
Quoting newyear498
Originally Rhetorical questions but I suppose its best to clarify this valuable information.


would someone feel the need to defend their beliefs? - first off if they are pissed you challenged it they have a lot of work to do and are currently not psychologically fit to trade (and I say these as 90% the cases). But also they clearly fear what they believe not being true.. which must lead you to conclude they are still seeking to find it true.. or subconscious doubts in beliefs, possibly seeking of confirmation bias as well..

[b]Why would...
haha. i won't be following. i'll be busy trawling your place looking for the diva shield (can't say why. top secret project. i can say that, yes, it involves a drunk talking parrot).
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #523
  • Edited 10:12am Jun 19, 2011 9:57am | Edited 10:12am
Hey guys, just thought I would drop by with some links from a blog I read from a very interesting trader. The blog hasn't been updated in a while but I still find myself re-reading articles he wrote years ago. He's a scalper and doesn't trade FX but that doesn't matter IMO. Check out his scalping system thread. He's an absolute monster.

Some interesting posts by him that might be worth a weekend read. I'd say his mindset is outside the box.

F'in Discipline

You're Not Smart Enough

Wasting Time Learning More?

Hunted Stops Or Bad Trades?

Edit: Links fixed
Cautiously optimistic. . .
  • #524
  • Jun 19, 2011 10:08am Jun 19, 2011 10:08am
Quoting Tact1cal
Hey guys, just thought I would drop by with some links from a blog I read from a very interesting trader. The blog hasn't been updated in a while but I still find myself re-reading articles he wrote years ago. He's a scalper and doesn't trade FX but that doesn't matter IMO. Check out his scalping system thread. He's an absolute monster.

Some interesting posts by him that might be worth a weekend read. I'd say his mindset is outside the box.

F'in Discipline
[url="http://tremblinghandtrader.typepad.com/trembling_hand_trader/page/4/"]
You're...
dude! very nice. i was reading posts by TH before i even knew what forex was. are you a member on the forum he used to reside? you can't see any attachments there without being a member, and i don't have a commercial email address to register with and so have always wondered what he and the likes of tech/a were attaching to their posts.
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #525
  • Jun 19, 2011 10:19am Jun 19, 2011 10:19am
Quote
are you a member on the forum he used to reside? you can't see any attachments there without being a member

No, I ran into the same problem and was too lazy to look for a work around lol. Doesn't take away from the thread though IMO. I love what he has to say. I was surprised by how much the traders on ASF would get on his case. It was kinda sad sometimes.
Cautiously optimistic. . .
  • #526
  • Jun 19, 2011 11:06am Jun 19, 2011 11:06am
Quoting Tact1cal
No, I ran into the same problem and was too lazy to look for a work around lol. Doesn't take away from the thread though IMO. I love what he has to say. I was surprised by how much the traders on ASF would get on his case. It was kinda sad sometimes.
your words... my words... they are one and the same

he craps on all of them with ease. it's the typical fight over what can't be done versus what has and continues to be done. some aim low, but he doesn't.

yeah never thought of any way around the email issue. it's ok. what can be gleaned is enough. that place is full of old farts drinking prune juice anyway. the factory has far more interesting topics.
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #527
  • Edited 12:48pm Jun 19, 2011 11:56am | Edited 12:48pm
Quote
it's the typical fight over what can't be done versus what has and continues to be done. some aim low, but he doesn't.
This runs rampant in any zero-sum game. Someone is always going to be better than them. I genuinely believe some people illusion themselves to protect their own egos from this fact. This limiting mindset is what will keep them from taking it to the next level. They don't want to know that someone is that much better than them. They don't want to put in the work to see what's even possible. I see someone clearly showing me that the sky is the limit. All the more reason to reach as high as you can.

The ambitions of a young bull. I'll have to find out the hard way.
Cautiously optimistic. . .
  • #528
  • Jun 19, 2011 2:44pm Jun 19, 2011 2:44pm
Quoting newyear498


as for the nubcake incident, Call ronnie and tell him "blue ice loves the thunder", then meet me at applebees with a box of chocolates, and 50 grand in cash. If anyone follows you abort the mission.


NY
You forgot to say: "This message self-destructs in 10 seconds."

----
Nubcake, yeah I guess most would say I am "built" but I lug the units around on a dolly so it's not like super-human strength or anything. Leverage works in many different ways... trading isn't the only thing that uses leverage. People mostly think I am superhuman when I go into a 150 degree attic and come out some 20-45 minutes later... sometimes longer.
  • #529
  • Jun 19, 2011 3:30pm Jun 19, 2011 3:30pm
I have seen a few things on volume lately in the forums and just wanted to say..

usually the cases of quick large movements in the market are actually the result of low volume NOT high volume.. I'm sure many new comers believe this to be true.. but its rather the opposite.. I even see some of the VSA followers make this fallacy..


forex is like an auction.. you bid prices up and down.. the buyer must find the seller.. less buyers and sellers makes for wider fluctuations in price..


the EUR/USD will stay at a price for a long time until there is an imbalance of people willing to buy / sell

for example.. a 100 buyers, 100 sellers.. all willing to to exchange at 1.4000.. price will hangout there for a while...

well what happens when there are 100 buyers to 0 seller at price 1.4000
I'll tell you.. if the buyers really want to buy.. then those 100 buyers need to find 100 sellers.. who in our example the next 100 sellers will be at 1.6000

so you will see that dramatic jump to from 1.4000 to 1.6000


its still simply supply and demand.. prices can go up because more demand / less supply.. which is the same thing...

more demand is exactly the same as less supply and the opposite is true


yet people think in terms of volume.. they make it seem like more buyers entered the market driving prices up.. but the same can be true that less sellers are willing to sell at that price which drives prices up to where the sellers are located





so the typical mindset that volume is required to push prices up or lower is bizarre to me.. consider the low volume to be 1 million buyers against 1 million sellers now consider high volume can mean there are 1 billion buyers against 1 billion sellers.. this does not show any indication of where the imbalance is..

separation would only help.. comparing the volume of buyers to volume of sellers.. but most novice aren't talking that way.. and in Forex that info would be a luxury in my data feed



so I don't see what all the fuss is about... locate the imbalance.. forget about how much volume there is...



just my two cents..
  • #530
  • Jun 19, 2011 3:33pm Jun 19, 2011 3:33pm
Quoting newyear498
I have seen a few things on volume lately in the forums and just wanted to say..

usually the cases of quick large movements in the market are actually the result of low volume NOT high volume.. I'm sure many new comers believe this to be true.. but its rather the opposite.. I even see some of the VSA followers make this fallacy..


forex is like an auction.. you bid prices up and down.. the buyer must find the seller.. less buyers and sellers makes for wider fluctuations in price..


the EUR/USD will stay at a price for...
Not sure if I should have made this a thread.. could probably help some people understand supply and demand aspects.. idk..
  • #531
  • Jun 19, 2011 9:29pm Jun 19, 2011 9:29pm
I agree with the 100vs100 if all order sizes are similar and both are using market orders.

How about a scenario in which there are 100 buyers and 100 sellers.. all buyers need immediacy so they're using market orders while only 50/100 sellers are using market orders. The other half of the sellers have limit sells away from price.

market orders consume liquidity while limit orders provide it.
  • #532
  • Jun 19, 2011 9:58pm Jun 19, 2011 9:58pm
Quoting EmeraldEyes
I agree with the 100vs100 if all order sizes are similar and both are using market orders.

How about a scenario in which there are 100 buyers and 100 sellers.. all buyers need immediacy so they're using market orders while only 50/100 sellers are using market orders. The other half of the sellers have limit sells away from price.

market orders consume liquidity while limit orders provide it.
in your example price moves to the sellers limit orders.. you didn't specify where they were placed above or below price.. any slippage the broker pockets if its in their favor.. if not you take it.. have a nice day ROFL

yeah I didn't feel like going overboard in the example.. too much information for one post.
  • #533
  • Jun 19, 2011 11:27pm Jun 19, 2011 11:27pm
Doesn't matter where they are, but they're above price. lol

Agree. Too many variables but I'm just pointing out that there are latent traders positioned to trade at respective price levels. Buy low, sell high.
  • #534
  • Jun 20, 2011 1:11am Jun 20, 2011 1:11am
newyear. imo you are right and wrong.

you have looked at it from the perspective of one side pulling limits out of the book and so have created a void which will allow easier pushing-through of prices. if one side suddenly thinned then the intentions of the opposite side gains strength and greater potential resilience.

but what if you consider it from the other perspective. what if one side adds bulk to their side instead of pulling away limits? the opposite side is now 'weaker' because they didn't match the growth in size of limits. they neither added or subtracted limits from their side but they have still become weaker because of the growth of the other side.

if you consider that 1 unit of market buying and then 1 unit of market selling occurs like clockwork then the results are the same. if one side pulls limits out they become weaker, but if one side adds limits they become stronger. in either case the side that is proportionately smaller is the weaker side.

but, in reality you don't have equal market buys and sells hitting a market. if it was like this then you could calculate exact volume of buy and sell limits of historical prices based on tick volume. but this isn't the case. market buys and sells are unlikely to ever be equal, and in the same vein limit buys and sells are also unequal.

if you have the same amount of limit buys and sells then more market buys or sells will allow a price level to be broken. a weaker buy limit will still hold if there are more market buys eroding the sell limit side.

it's a soup. without actually seeing the book as well as time and sales then it's all just taking guesses as to what is occurring. now you've done stocks before so have probably watched the book and time and sales and seen how in a liquid stock the book continues to shift around constantly as well as how the time and sales shows different market buying and selling strength. let alone the potential gaming of the book where someone might not even have their pending order sitting in the book for everyone to see until price creeps to that level, or levels suddenly being taken away leaving a void.

it's all just shifting sands. from moment to moment it all changes around.

then again, as always, i could very-well be talking crap.
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #535
  • Jun 20, 2011 2:10am Jun 20, 2011 2:10am
furthermore, what do you take from correctly identifying if one side is stronger or weaker than another? in it's own little area of circumstance you take that one side is pushing in a certain direction. but step outside of that boundary of circumstance to a level above this and you then have to ask certain questions...

if the buy side has strength then this means the price will go up due to less selling resistance. but is this because buying is more favorable overall due to more participants entering the market on the buy side, or is it simply previous sellers covering their orders and therefore sellers simply getting out of the market.

and so on for the opposite perspective of sells vs buys.

if the price goes up are their more buyers, or less sellers, and why? if price goes down are there more sellers, or less buyers, and why?

at some point you try to measure these ideas and come across stuff like standard deviations of price swings, or atr, and so on. and then you discover that for as much as it sits nicely within these boundaries it also blows right through them. then you get people saying x timeframe is noise but y timeframe has meaning... and then alice has a tea party with the mad hatter.
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #536
  • Jun 20, 2011 2:28am Jun 20, 2011 2:28am
Quoting Tact1cal
This runs rampant in any zero-sum game. Someone is always going to be better than them. I genuinely believe some people illusion themselves to protect their own egos from this fact. This limiting mindset is what will keep them from taking it to the next level. They don't want to know that someone is that much better than them. They don't want to put in the work to see what's even possible. I see someone clearly showing me that the sky is the limit. All the more reason to reach as high as you can.
I couldn't agree more.

Ego is the traders' biggest curse.
  • #537
  • Jun 20, 2011 2:31am Jun 20, 2011 2:31am
Quoting nubcake
furthermore, what do you take from correctly identifying if one side is stronger or weaker than another? in it's own little area of circumstance you take that one side is pushing in a certain direction. but step outside of that boundary of circumstance to a level above this and you then have to ask certain questions...
I like where you train of thought is going.

Quote
if the buy side has strength then this means the price will go up due to less selling resistance. but is this because buying is more favorable overall due to more participants entering the market on the buy side, or is it simply previous sellers covering their orders and therefore sellers simply getting out of the market.
It could very well be a combination of both. You need to identify how the participants are positionned first, and what could cause them to alter their position. The market does not always have to be caught short when buying becomes favourable, nor does buying even have to become favourable for price to go up notably, if offers have been thinned.

Quote
at some point you try to measure these ideas and come across stuff like standard deviations of price swings, or atr, and so on. and then you discover that for as much as it sits nicely within these boundaries it also blows right through them.
These things do not tell you why buying or selling has become more favourable, nor does it give you a means of ascertaining the market's positionning.

Quote
then you get people saying x timeframe is noise but y timeframe has meaning... and then alice has a tea party with the mad hatter.
People will be more partial to a particular timeframe based on their trading styles and objectives. A position trader will argue that a 1M chart is simply noise, while the scalper or short term trader will strongly defend it. Opportunities exist on all timeframes; it's just that pinpointing what happens on the smaller ones requires a good grasp of what's happening in the market. Few people have such a level of understanding, and thus dismiss it completely. A little bit of knowledge is a dangerous thing.

Furthermore, if a situation occurs that makes buying more favourable, which time-frame is it better to go long on, the 5M, 15M or Daily? If your approach to the markets relies on candle open and closes as important, then it will matter. But if it is independent of it, then really all timeframes show the same information, just varying in their level of detail/zoom.

Regards,
xXTrizzleXx
  • #538
  • Jun 20, 2011 2:48am Jun 20, 2011 2:48am
Quoting Pipalicious
This caught my attention, be it BS or not I found it curious: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...06#post4582806

I guess its like some say, "trade the market as it unfolds" as opposed to "research and trade a proven historical edge".
Precisely.

Imagine betting on coin tossing results where heads have a slightly higher probability than tails due to a physical bias in the coin. Betting on heads you would obviously have a fixed edge.

The market model is more complex than that. In the market, the coin's bias shifts, gravity varies, air pressure varies, edges come and go.

Quoting Pipalicious
There was Acrary on ET talking about how he spent years researching and testing proven edges when all he had to do was "essentially" combine a trend with counter trend approach blablabla cant remember the rest.
Yes. With that realization, he sought to develop an immunological approach to the market, I believe.
  • #539
  • Jun 20, 2011 3:36am Jun 20, 2011 3:36am
Quoting xXTrizzleXx
These things do not tell you why buying or selling has become more favourable, nor does it give you a means of ascertaining the market's positionning.
i was unclear. that's what i meant. i was trying to suggest that when you look at a chart and start taking such arbitrary measurements based on what happens to be on your chart in the range it currently shows then the results are also arbitrary.

i guess this all boils down to wanting and trying to see, or time, turning points and then trying to make coin based on the expectation of reversals (or continuations within an expected leg of movement depending on the chart in front of you). as most know, this is likely to give a crap outcome over and over until broke.

this is drifting into darkstar's order flow which is something outside of my meager realm of understanding. it's outside the realm of most peoples too i suppose, and really that was my point. the VSA type of threads really just appear in my noob eyes to be more random signals that are simply giving a different set of excuses to enter, exit, or sit tight one way or the other.
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #540
  • Jun 20, 2011 7:03am Jun 20, 2011 7:03am
Quoting nubcake
i was unclear. that's what i meant. i was trying to suggest that when you look at a chart and start taking such arbitrary measurements based on what happens to be on your chart in the range it currently shows then the results are also arbitrary.

i guess this all boils down to wanting and trying to see, or time, turning points and then trying to make coin based on the expectation of reversals (or continuations within an expected leg of movement depending on the chart in front of you). as most know, this is likely to give a crap outcome over...
Lol, nubcake its like your disagreeing.. but if you look again I covered most of what you said.. mostly in the bolds as well..

I might be misinterpreting you but.. I'm pretty sure I emphasized the words usually it is the other way around.. and also touching on the typical mindset that would misinterpret a 20 pip jump as strictly meaning high volume..


IMHO.. people need to learn to speak in Supply and Demand.. NOT S/R or Buyers / sellers, or oversold / overbought so sick of misinformation.. you know a trend line was originally called a Supply and Demand line... hmm.. maybe thats how your supposed to use it DRRRRRRRRRRRRR but tell a fool to use a bollinger band and he will never know what standard deviation means.. I say use a CCI he would say "no those suck" but ITS THE SAME THING AS A BB... omg people are so funny


yes darkstar is probably the master.. that a**hole is never going to finish his book tho WTF mate!?! longest editing phase ever.. lol
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