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VSA with Clifton

  • #61
  • Jun 13, 2011 12:41pm Jun 13, 2011 12:41pm
Quoting frankkn
I like this thread

A note to the haters: if you don't have anything to contribute, ask yourself "Why am I posting here?"

Please, let's keep it constructive.

Clifton in a recent post I'd like to thank you for mentioning background. VSA needs to be put into context, and is not a signal spitting method. This throws a lot of people off.

Moving beyond terms and names for bars for a moment, when volume is extraordinarily high this means the pros are active. Consider this in context by asking yourself are the pros active while the market...
All well said. Thanks.
  • #62
  • Jun 15, 2011 6:16am Jun 15, 2011 6:16am
Clifton,

much appreciating your efforts. Putting things into laymen terms and so clearly laid out like this VSA starts to make a whole lot more sense now :-)

I have been monitoring your set ups for a few days now and indeed, they do show up on a regular basis. Good stuff!
  • #63
  • Jun 15, 2011 7:59am Jun 15, 2011 7:59am
I hope you don't mind me asking here. If this is out of context, please let me know and I'll remove this question.

I've just gotten into VSA, and use IBFX, and noticed today that the volume from the start of the day and all through the London session has been very low compared to the volume on all the other days.

Is it just my feed or are others having the same oddly low volume today (I'm looking at the 15 minute chart, posted below).

Volume is 80% less than the average that it usually is.

http://i.imgur.com/A2YF3.jpg

Thanks,
Joe
  • #64
  • Jun 15, 2011 8:42am Jun 15, 2011 8:42am
@joekurr

I have the same and it must be some sort of data glitch with IBFX because when pulling up Alpari UK live charts the volume shows correctly.
  • #65
  • Jun 15, 2011 10:12am Jun 15, 2011 10:12am
Thanks Jtpada
  • #66
  • Edited 5:59pm Jun 16, 2011 2:01pm | Edited 5:59pm
It's funny, I was just thinking I should find a double bottom with volume confiming to post in here..easy, high probability setup. Got it today, along with the setup I've shown so far. So, at least two setups here to get in long E/U.

First, don't forget background. We had that oddly timed drop on the dollar pairs before London open, but the 5 min showed clearly that the move was "bought into" by smart money.

Simply put, the highest volume points on the 5 min were large down bars on high volume, that halted the down move (demand overcomes supply, hidden to non-VSAers). The 1 hr came around and showed the same thing. I bet most were looking to short going into London session.

We all know double bottoms but looking for the "U" shaped volume below it makes for a high probability setup. It's starts with:

1. Stopping volume on the first bottom

2. A significant decrease in volume as price attempts to move up after stopping volume.

3. Another test of the bottom on increasing volume, with no candle close below the first bottom.

The aggressive entry would be the long on the first or second bullish close as I highlighted. You could also wait for a no supply, but that should be once price starts marking up. At/near the bottom, volume must stay high.

Stop loss goes 5-10 pips below the bottom.

So am I picking a bottom? Heck yeah..take it or leave it lol.

The R:R is great and it has a high probability.

...and then there's the push/test entry I've been showing.

http://img844.imageshack.us/img844/8629/eudblbott.gif

Update: The double bottom entry caught the whole move today..up 100 pips now. Trading with the 1 hr background with simple, finely tuned 5 min entries.
  • #67
  • Edited 7:35pm Jun 16, 2011 2:25pm | Edited 7:35pm
IBFX goes whacky for a couple days and everyone freaks out lol.

This happens to most brokers at some point. Just look at your broker of choice on a monthly chart and see the wild variations.

I'm always watching 2 to 3 volume feeds while trading. If one looks funny, I replace it with another.
  • #68
  • Edited 9:06pm Jun 19, 2011 7:24pm | Edited 9:06pm
The balance of supply and demand:

Picture a two sided scale. When the left side goes down, the right side goes up and vice versa. Let's make the left side weight supply and the right side weight demand.

Our scale requires two factors for it to tip to the left side.

1. An increase in supply. (left)

2. An amount of demand less than the supply. (right)

If supply is consistently greater than demand then we have a down trending move.

The most typical way this will begin to reverse is not by seeing supply lessen, but demand increase. So at a point the down move meets prices where there is a substantial demand increase.

The very first sign of this on your chart will be ultra high volume, or stopping volume as that stream of supply meets increasing demand. It's an increase in overall activity (more weight on the scale).

Of course going long just yet would not be high probability until we see supply (left side pressure) decrease (aka no supply candle) then we've spotted the imbalance that will tip the scale to the right side (up move to find supply again).

I hope this analogy is helpful. Trading this imbalance on a small time frame, in the direction of the large time frame imbalance sums my trading.

The scale can be temporarily manipulated. I'll talk more about this in future posts.
  • #69
  • Jun 19, 2011 9:06pm Jun 19, 2011 9:06pm
Quoting Clifton
The balance of supply and demand:

Picture a two sided scale. When the left side goes down, the right side goes up and vice versa. Let's make the left side weight supply and the right side weight demand.

Our scale requires two factors for it to tip to the left side.

1. An increase in supply. (left)

2. An amount of demand less than the supply. (right)

If supply is consistently greater than demand then we have down trending move.

The most typical way this will begin to reverse is not by seeing supply lessen, but demand increase....
OR we can go to the source for the correct answers:

"The market does not work like a balanced weighing scale, where adding a little to one scale tips the other side up and taking away lets the other side fall. It is not nearly so simple and straightforward." Tom Williams, MTM, pg 17.

"A market moves up, not necessarily because there is more buying than selling, but because there is no substantial bouts of selling (profit-taking) to stop the up move. Major buying (demand) has already taken place at lower prices during the accumulation phase. Until Substantial selling starts to take place, the trend of the market will be up.

A bear market takes place, not because there is necessarily more selling than buying, but because there is insufficient buying (support) from the major players to stop the down-move. Selling has already taken place during the distribution phase at a higher price level and until you see buying coming into the market, the market will remain bearish. There is not support in a bear market (buying), so prices fall". Tom Williams, MTM, pg 72.
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #70
  • Edited 9:34pm Jun 19, 2011 9:14pm | Edited 9:34pm
Quoting HiddenGap
OR we can go to the source for the correct answers:
I've really had enough of you guys. I know what I'm taking about, and I am profitable with my trading. Master the markets is NOT my VSA bible, and I still make money analyzing volume and spread. Can you comprehend this? My interpretation is superior in MY OPINION. I think for myself..what a sin around here.

I'm banning you from my thread just like I did your buddies. You're a bunch of all knowing snobs that have to be right all the time. Go feed your ego somewhere else.
  • #71
  • Jun 19, 2011 9:24pm Jun 19, 2011 9:24pm
If there are any traders that would like me to continue the thread please let me know, otherwise I wont waste my time anymore.
  • #72
  • Jun 19, 2011 9:36pm Jun 19, 2011 9:36pm
Quoting Clifton
... Master the markets is NOT my VSA bible, and I still make money. Can you comprehend this? My interpretation is superior in MY OPINION. I think for myself..what a sin around here...
Therein lies the problem. Master the Markets IS the VSA bible. You have shown your true self. Now, if you want to do a thread about how you interpret VSA then go ahead, just don't call it VSA. You felt the need to start a new thread rather than post your ideas on Malc's thread. But you copied the thread name as if it too was a VSA thread based on the teaching of Tom Williams.

A simply caveat at the start to the newbies that you were not following VSA to the letter, would save them time and save us all many misunderstandings.

Quoting Clifton
If there are any traders that would like me to continue the thread please let me know, otherwise I wont waste my time anymore.
I would.
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #73
  • Jun 19, 2011 9:40pm Jun 19, 2011 9:40pm
Quoting HiddenGap

A simply caveat at the start to the newbies that you were not following VSA to the letter, would save them time and save us all many misunderstandings.

Quoting Clifton

The way I'm presenting it is not 100% the same as Tom Williams/Tradeguider. I would encourage people to read...
  • #74
  • Jun 19, 2011 10:08pm Jun 19, 2011 10:08pm
Hi Clifton,

I've recently developed an interest in learning VSA. I like the way you explain things and you've helped me to understand some concepts which I had trouble grasping before. Please continue, thanks.


Quoting Clifton
If there are any traders that would like me to continue the thread please let me know, otherwise I wont waste my time anymore.
  • #75
  • Edited 12:30am Jun 20, 2011 12:14am | Edited 12:30am
Quoting fthingf
Hi Clifton,

I've recently developed an interest in learning VSA. I like the way you explain things and you've helped me to understand some concepts which I had trouble grasping before. Please continue, thanks.
OK, as there were others that seemed to be benefiting from this thread too, I'll continue. I saw a need for it before I started.

Let's face it, Tom Williams and the Master The Markets book (so called VSA Bible) is confusing as all hell. He contradicts himself and makes things over complicated, then sells overpriced software with a slick front man.

I'll admit, it did start me on the path to understanding things and becoming profitable, no doubt. But rather than treat it like some religious cult, I continued to think for myself (oh the heresy!).

Now, I would say my analysis of volume and spread (VSA) is superior to Tom Williams. (look out, Clifton is the devil!!).

If I'm choosy enough with my trade entries I can get through 3-4 weeks without a loss. I can also explain how someone else can do it without twisting their brain into mush so they have to read it 10 times to understand.

At this point most of the VSA Nazis have already been blocked from my thread.

I shall continue...
  • #76
  • Jun 20, 2011 12:22am Jun 20, 2011 12:22am
"If I'm choosy enough with my trade entries I can get through 3-4 weeks without a loss. I can also explain how someone else can do it without twisting their brain into mush so they have to read it 10 times to understand".


You have certainly got my interest. Looking forward to following along with you.
  • #77
  • Edited 3:30am Jun 20, 2011 3:18am | Edited 3:30am
Two reasons why I didn't go long here.

1. The push through supply bar has very high volume. That tells me
there was excessive tick activity, including down ticks (supply).

2. The no supply I pointed out is not "confirmed" as there has been no close above it on the 5 min.

The high of the push thru supply bar makes an additional supply line to draw. Recognize it's a high volume up bar followed by a bearish bar, weakness.

I would feel more confident going long once price can close above the failed push thru supply bar on medium volume. That will tell the the supply there is gone.

Also, I like to see a bullish close to confirm stopping volume, so my 1hr background is not ideal, as it just closed bearish.
http://img137.imageshack.us/img137/4679/eusetupp.jpg
  • #78
  • Jun 20, 2011 4:16am Jun 20, 2011 4:16am
Hi Clifton,

So just to summarise, you first look for a potential setup on the hour chart. When I say potential I mean u look for a bottom or double bottom in the market or any pullback in an up move. You then check for a very high volume candle closing off its low.

If this is identified, you will then go to 5 min chart, identify the bottom with a high volume candle closing off its low and then look for a supply level. You then look for a candle to push thru supply on a medium vol. Having achieved this you then just need a small spread down candle on low volume which you call the no supply candle.

We can then enter on the 5min chart when price breaks the high of the push thru supply candle.

Is this the basic idea that I am understanding correctly please. I know the market could turn anywhere, so do you have any where in particular you look for bottoms or do you look more to a very high vol candle forming and then go from there? I presume a short is just the opposite.

All very interesting, Thanks.
  • #79
  • Jun 20, 2011 7:32am Jun 20, 2011 7:32am
LOL, seem like HG always right and have the right to teach others. The one who trade without considering background on higher tf other than 3m, 5m would consider himself the best around in ff. Make me laugh, lol. HG, you should ask Dr.G for more advices on live trade rather than only trade the hindsight.
Please continue Clifton, I'm looking to add something I know here too
  • #80
  • Jun 20, 2011 8:07am Jun 20, 2011 8:07am
Clifton,

as stated in my prior posts, IŽd love to see you keep going. Finally learning a thing about VSA that I have never quite understood before.

Take the EU 5min double bottom situation you presented for example: downright excellent!

Keep it coming!

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