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Elliot wave, Harmonic And Ichimoku in CHINESE STYLE

  • #5,501
  • Jun 18, 2011 7:35am Jun 18, 2011 7:35am
Quoting infinitus
Hi Jaylovin,

quick answer from an parking bay LOL (adicted)

Do not misunderstand me here: I am all for that the market is mainly driven by mood and not fundamentals :-) If I wood think the other way I could not do EW. Social mood does not need an extrinsic factor to be trigerd from good to bad. But especially in currencies there are sometimes fundamental forces that can not be ignored. At least for a short or intermediate time.

I for one only take notice of the heavy fundamental data, like interest rate decisions or for example the things...

quick answer?? LOL

ok this will be my last post also - then we continue later or tomorrow... i still have a problem with your belief in fundamental forces... lets take some examples here...

Trichet, Bernanke all say things which 'supposedly' sends the markets wild...

you and i were both analysing with EW a down move from 1.3620 when it reached there during tokyo session.. the next day we in luck as EU dropped around 80pips to 1.3540.. it was also a Friday.. next thing you know the markets shoot up violently for around 300 pips taking out my SL all because Leornado of ECB - a new kid on the block 'mentioned' rate hikes... 300 pips up?

so... now we're at 1.49... hovering around... both my mentor's said markets would turn here for a correction... 1 days later, USD unemployment claims come out and its bad for the USD... within 15 minutes the Euro falls 100 pips.. fundamental reason?? Trichest makes dovish comments about the euro... over the next 3 hours we have a 400 pip drop...

now... 1.4650 area... Euro drops again around 400 pips up to thursday just gone... fundamental reason?? - ECB talk about RAISING rates...

but errr... shouldn't the euro be rising? i may have it all completely wrong here my friend... if i do, i would appreciate someone to give me an idiots guide...

jim rogers is bearish on the dollar so he bought it... more and more people might carry on buying the dollar... this may naturally prevent the dollar from getting stronger as those with control would drive euro prices higher, taking out as many positions as possible... if there's only 5% usd bulls and that amount reduces to say 1% USD bulls... the effect of euro going higher speeds up rapidly no?
  • #5,502
  • Jun 18, 2011 7:38am Jun 18, 2011 7:38am
Quoting Sixer
jaylovin,

i think we are still in a „sideways“ pattern as i stated last week which started at the high at 1.4940 and will last for some more weeks. All patterns are still corrective and are very difficult to analyze correctly:


http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images...rusd90176.gif/


My count is supported by the long term Delta cycles that´s why there is no need to prepare more.

Sixer

Hi Sixer,

I like that count... lets see what happens next week...
  • #5,503
  • Jun 18, 2011 7:49am Jun 18, 2011 7:49am
Quoting jaylovin
examples here...
Trichet, Bernanke all say things which 'supposedly' sends the markets wild...
you and i were both analysing with EW a down move from 1.3620 when it reached there during tokyo session.. the next day we in luck as EU dropped around 80pips to 1.3540.. it was also a Friday.. next thing you know the markets shoot up violently for around 300 pips taking out my SL all because Leornado of ECB - a new kid on the block 'mentioned' rate hikes... 300 pips up?
so... now we're at 1.49... hovering around... both my mentor's said markets would turn here for a correction... 1 days later, USD unemployment claims come out and its bad for the USD... within 15 minutes the Euro falls 100 pips.. fundamental reason?? Trichest makes dovish comments about the euro... over the next 3 hours we have a 400 pip drop...

now... 1.4650 area... Euro drops again around 400 pips up to thursday just gone... fundamental reason?? - ECB talk about RAISING rates...

but errr... shouldn't the euro be rising? i may have it all completely wrong here my friend... if i do, i would appreciate someone to give me an idiots guide...

jim rogers is bearish on the dollar so he bought it... more and more people might carry on buying the dollar... this may naturally prevent the dollar from getting stronger as those with control would drive euro prices higher, taking out as many positions as possible... if there's only 5% usd bulls and that amount reduces to say 1% USD bulls... the effect of euro going higher speeds up rapidly no?
So as i understand u say amount of holder us getting less from 5% to 1%
and 5% euro getting 10%

Depends on market and natural law As i understand
1% of us% holding win and 10% euro holding lose

Because most traders lose and people like jim who buy us$ know that fact which is i c as smart money @ some point will dump US$ when many start to buy it and sell euro and let them stuck with us$ and he SELL $

Some call that fact stop hunting or broker spike "that we seen on weekly close with e/u UP"

I'm tired and high stress need some rest.
Catch u later
  • #5,504
  • Jun 18, 2011 7:54am Jun 18, 2011 7:54am
Quoting infinitus
Hi Egkid,

brilliant :-)


One of the causes that the USD will get more worth is the fact, that most of the debt on the world is denominated in USD.

Now we see that more and more of this debt is about to default.

If debt defaults, this IOU will never be monetized. Thus the remaining USD in the system starts to get more worth.

Second factor for EUR to lose against USD might be, that US-Banks sold their bad debt to a vast amount to European banks. When things start to slow down in the US more and more, the European banks have a very big problem....
Thank you Markus for your input
Catch u later
  • #5,505
  • Edited 9:33am Jun 18, 2011 9:20am | Edited 9:33am
about where we may be headed

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 21.png Size: 58 KB
  • #5,506
  • Jun 18, 2011 9:35am Jun 18, 2011 9:35am
Quoting needpips
about where we may be headed

Attachment
Hi Needpips,

weekend and we are talking Forex LOL

Think you have to modify your count, because you have an wave 1 and 4 overlap. Unless this is an (leading) diagonal, it is not allowed.

All the moves down so far are impulses. So can not be a diagonal.

But: Prechter once found a very rare example of a diagonal which had an impulse as wave 3. And our wave 1 looks pretty strange with the spike down and counts on some timeframes really bad.

So I would say we have a minimal chance that your count will come true. But it is never the less low probability.

Catch ya later,

Markus
  • #5,507
  • Jun 18, 2011 9:40am Jun 18, 2011 9:40am
I thought Prechter allowed for a small overthrow of minor and major due to the leveraged nature of currency (especially commodities)....I am assuming u are referring to my minor 2 overlap of Yellow 1...



Page 21 of EWP :wave 2 never moves beyond 1, 3 is never the shortest, 4 never enters 1....Im not seeing how my count violates thes tenets?

***although it is close, my yellow 3 (if it doesnt extend) will still be longer than wave 1 by 25-30 pips

Quoting infinitus
Hi Needpips,

weekend and we are talking Forex LOL

Think you have to modify your count, because you have an wave 1 and 4 overlap. Unless this is an (leading) diagonal, it is not allowed.

All the moves down so far are impulses. So can not be a diagonal.

But: Prechter once found a very rare example of a diagonal which had an impulse as wave 3. And our wave 1 looks pretty strange with the spike down and counts on some timeframes really bad.

So I would say we have a minimal chance that your count will come true. But it is never the less low probability.

Catch...
  • #5,508
  • Jun 18, 2011 11:27am Jun 18, 2011 11:27am
..about Wave 4 never Enters 1
will be challenged by Jeff Greenblatt of lucaswaveinternational.com
CCI decipherer
  • #5,509
  • Jun 18, 2011 12:15pm Jun 18, 2011 12:15pm
sogt725,

do you have any positive experience with the Market Analyzer software from Greenblatt ?

https://www.lucaswaveinternational.com/market.php

Sixer
  • #5,510
  • Jun 18, 2011 12:21pm Jun 18, 2011 12:21pm
EURUSD Weekly
with my Neely-style EW-approach, in my eyes the trend is down, direction 1,35

http://img545.imageshack.us/img545/2458/eurusdw0616.jpg
  • #5,511
  • Jun 18, 2011 12:28pm Jun 18, 2011 12:28pm
EURUSD Daily

in wave D of some expanding pattern

http://img202.imageshack.us/img202/9918/eurusdd0617.jpg
  • #5,512
  • Jun 18, 2011 12:43pm Jun 18, 2011 12:43pm
Quoting Sixer
sogt725,

do you have any positive experience with the Market Analyzer software from Greenblatt ?

https://www.lucaswaveinternational.com/market.php

Sixer
I looked at the pics of the s/w & don't intend to use it since it uses advanced Gann techniques. It even has 3D patterns. I'm not going to study Astronomy & Moons

I bought his 2 books. Gained some insight into some of his thesis on different topics.
But shall never venture into his higher realm of Gann understanding. Too much complex counts.

But time cycle lines & combining Fibo & Lucas #s to Low-High / High-Low ZigZag legs or High-High / Low-Low cycles does give one some near estimation of when a price cluster is expected to reverse on different timeframes (TFs)
CCI decipherer
  • #5,513
  • Jun 18, 2011 2:33pm Jun 18, 2011 2:33pm
Quoting needpips
I thought Prechter allowed for a small overthrow of minor and major due to the leveraged nature of currency (especially commodities)....I am assuming u are referring to my minor 2 overlap of Yellow 1...



Page 21 of EWP :wave 2 never moves beyond 1, 3 is never the shortest, 4 never enters 1....Im not seeing how my count violates thes tenets?

***although it is close, my yellow 3 (if it doesnt extend) will still be longer than wave 1 by 25-30 pips
Hi Needpips,

I see what you mean. That is right. I saw only the yellow numbers, my fault.

But when you place a minor 1-2 count (meaning yellow 3 is extended), then your yellow 3 is far too short, because after minor 1 and 2 comes minor 3, 4 and 5. Minor 3 will most likely end further down than your yellow 3.

It is unlikely, that price will stay in your base channel when wave 3 accelerates down. At the beginning the base channel is drawn from the starting point to the end of wave 2 , and the parallel through the end of wave 1. Then when you have the end of wave 3 you draw a new one which connect 1 and 3 and the parallel to it through the end of wave 2. When you have wave 4, you draw again a new one through 2 and 4 with parallel through 3.

Sometimes price stays literally in the same base channel, but most of the time, especially with an extended 3 you have to draw new channels.
  • #5,514
  • Jun 18, 2011 2:44pm Jun 18, 2011 2:44pm
Interesting Jay lovin..Sixer...Infinitus.....LOL.....

Here is the chart again...EVEN THOUGH it went pass 1.4154...(that is a signal for future)... but for now eyeing 1.4715 again... WITH A DOUBLE TOP AT 1.4575

Sixer... I agree with you....I take this whole mess as a ZIG ZAG CORRECTION..not an Impulse...

Price has an unfinished business at 1.36 level and 1.57..one of them is gonna get hit ...and we have an untested resistence at 1.48xx..that goes very well with my earlier chart of.......Irregular...X....Irregular........

For now 1.4600 is an interesting level..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Scenario#2.jpg Size: 90 KB
Markets are not Random, they are designed!
  • #5,515
  • Jun 18, 2011 2:45pm Jun 18, 2011 2:45pm
Quoting sogt725
..about Wave 4 never Enters 1
will be challenged by Jeff Greenblatt of lucaswaveinternational.com


So what did he say?

i have many years of experience with EW. I have never seen an overlap in 1 and 4. Only at submicro or miniscule degree I have witnessed it occasionally.

I stick to the rules of Frost and Prechter.

Best to you,

Markus
  • #5,516
  • Jun 18, 2011 2:46pm Jun 18, 2011 2:46pm
Quoting Raza
Interesting Jay lovin..Sixer...Infinitus.....LOL.....

Here is the chart again...EVEN THOUGH it went pass 1.4154...(that is a signal for future)... but for now eyeing 1.4715 again... WITH A DOUBLE TOP AT 1.4575

Sixer... I agree with you....I take this whole mess as a ZIG ZAG CORRECTION..not an Impulse...

Price has an unfinished business at 1.36 level and 1.57..one of them is gonna get hit ...and we have an untested resistence at 1.48xx..

For now 1.4600 is an interesting level..

raza where you been?? skype!
  • #5,517
  • Jun 18, 2011 2:50pm Jun 18, 2011 2:50pm
Quoting infinitus
So what did he say?

i have many years of experience with EW. I have never seen an overlap in 1 and 4. Only at submicro or miniscule degree I have witnessed it occasionally.

I stick to the rules of Frost and Prechter.

Best to you,

Markus
Markus just a thought....if wave#1 and 4 overlapping on Daily chart...Is it possible for you to consider that daily chart as Submicro.?....and the huge wave UP going into 2.0 will make a larger degree...thus making sense for LEADING DIAGONAL on daily TF?.....Few years later...

HOPE IT MAKE SENSE WHAT I WROTE WITHOUT CHART..

All I can say is US is done.....
Markets are not Random, they are designed!
  • #5,518
  • Jun 18, 2011 2:52pm Jun 18, 2011 2:52pm
Quoting RemingtonTJ
EURUSD Daily

in wave D of some expanding pattern

http://img202.imageshack.us/img202/9918/eurusdd0617.jpg
Hi Remington,

nice to see you :-) Visited your blog this morning.

Do you have a long term count of EurUSD?
  • #5,519
  • Jun 18, 2011 3:09pm Jun 18, 2011 3:09pm
Quoting Raza
Markus just a thought....if wave#1 and 4 overlapping on Daily chart...Is it possible for you to consider that daily chart as Submicro.?....and the huge wave UP going into 2.0 will make a larger degree...thus making sense for LEADING DIAGONAL on daily TF?.....Few years later...

HOPE IT MAKE SENSE WHAT I WROTE WITHOUT CHART..

All I can say is US is done.....
When did you see an 1/4 overlap on daily? If it happened, it is a leading or ending diagonal. Leading diagonals are very rare, especially on higher degree.
If it is a diagonal at all, all the moves inside are ABC's. Prechter found only 1 or 2 examples where the wave 3 was an impulse (when I remember correctly).

Prechter says betting on a leading diagonal is betting on low probability.

Hehehe, we do not need charts to understand :-)

How is your weekend going?


Have a nice time,

Markus
  • #5,520
  • Jun 18, 2011 5:14pm Jun 18, 2011 5:14pm
Very well said....The chart I posted was just all standard fib ratios....as if none of them extent so 3=1.618 of 1 yada yada, this way I at least calculate things on a conservative level,...I was hoping 3 might accelerate and extend, thus 5 will pull up short, based on the 5 we just experienced,i believe its a possibility....

Maybe all this euphoria going in to this weekend will hit a wall come Monday....thus, allowing for some "look out below"...

Also, I looked at your blog....our sentiments are similar.....Like u said, this count looks appropriate, but right under 1.45 must hold......I really believe by the close of this months candle we will have a pretty good road map....subsequently, if this count is valid....when my 5 wave (yellow) retraces (larger 2) then we can literally sell the farm......but u knew that


Quoting infinitus
Hi Needpips,

I see what you mean. That is right. I saw only the yellow numbers, my fault.

But when you place a minor 1-2 count (meaning yellow 3 is extended), then your yellow 3 is far too short, because after minor 1 and 2 comes minor 3, 4 and 5. Minor 3 will most likely end further down than your yellow 3.

It is unlikely, that price will stay in your base channel when wave 3 accelerates down. At the beginning the base channel is drawn from the starting point to the end of wave 2 , and the parallel through the end of wave 1. Then when you have...
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