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Elliot wave, Harmonic And Ichimoku in CHINESE STYLE

  • #5,481
  • Jun 18, 2011 4:50am Jun 18, 2011 4:50am
Quoting jaylovin
interesting power with the euro infinitus wouldnt you say?

i see 1.55 before parity.. but still more down to go yet imo..
Hi Jaylovin,

oh yes, strange and powerful moves in both direction.

I am open minded and too have an alternative count which is bullish for Euro.

But I can not see this to happen. Look at the various countries in Europe that hanging over the cliff. It is all a question of time and this house of cards will break down.

Not to say that the USD looks so much better, but I believe in Prechters deflation theory (which is the only theory so far which is sound) and thus the rising USD.

I see a chance for a rising Euro when Oil will finish its move up. But Oil will eventually drop beforehand in direction of 85-82. Then up to new highs around 130.

That time around we should definitively see if the correlation is broken or not. If broken, Eur will drop further.

What is your actual count on EURUSD?
  • #5,482
  • Jun 18, 2011 4:54am Jun 18, 2011 4:54am
Can someone show an actual Neely count, please?
  • #5,483
  • Jun 18, 2011 5:07am Jun 18, 2011 5:07am
gbp/usd is in a long term short side. Based on the fib tool, it may complete a nice AB=CD harmonic pattern...
follow my journal
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...=1#post4703993

cheers
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  • #5,484
  • Jun 18, 2011 5:22am Jun 18, 2011 5:22am
Quoting infinitus
Hi Jaylovin,

What is your actual count on EURUSD?

i can't access my charting package at the moment... when i do i will post some screenshots... the drop from 1.4940 looks like an ABC zig zag down for me... but i have levels of breach which will invalidate this count... i will post it as soon as my broker allows me to access my chart as all my counts are saved in there...
  • #5,485
  • Jun 18, 2011 5:33am Jun 18, 2011 5:33am
jaylovin,

fine - i consider the pattern starting at 1.4940 as "a-b-c" too, not as an impulse.

infinitius,

the black numbers showing the intraday Delta count. This short time cycle has 12 turning points plus inversions each 4 calendar days.

Sixer
  • #5,486
  • Jun 18, 2011 5:36am Jun 18, 2011 5:36am
Quoting Sixer
jaylovin,

fine - i consider the pattern starting at 1.4940 as "a-b-c" too, not as an impulse.

infinitius,

the black numbers showing the intraday Delta count. This short time cycle has 12 turning points plus inversions each 4 calendar days.

Sixer
Thanks for explanation Sixer
  • #5,487
  • Jun 18, 2011 5:41am Jun 18, 2011 5:41am
Quoting jaylovin
i can't access my charting package at the moment... when i do i will post some screenshots... the drop from 1.4940 looks like an ABC zig zag down for me... but i have levels of breach which will invalidate this count... i will post it as soon as my broker allows me to access my chart as all my counts are saved in there...
Oh yes, looks like an ABC. Drop below 4150 will safe the bears (eventually).

Have to run now. Have to attend a lecture......


Catch you later,


Markus
  • #5,488
  • Edited 6:23am Jun 18, 2011 6:08am | Edited 6:23am
Quoting infinitus
Oh yes, looks like an ABC. Drop below 4150 will safe the bears (eventually).

Have to run now. Have to attend a lecture......


Catch you later,


Markus
Hi Markus,

here are two different counts i have... as a rough guide.. not yet applied fibs to it as i've been really busy working... the first chart shows a downtrend count... we can potentially be in wave 3 down now but i find this highly unlikely... 2nd chart shows we are in wave 2 ABC zig zag down... then wave 3 will start... i have been told by my mentor euro may rise like there is no tomorrow... and to be fair this wave count seems better... i will confirm this more when i've worked out my fibs for wave count respect...

i still see one more move down below 1.3969 to finish the C leg withing wave 2.... wave 3 up may give us 3000 pips or more...

EDIT: with wave 2 and wave 4 being so brief within RED wave 1... we might actually within wave 4 of wave 1 RED still... invalidation would be 1.3856....

must dash... talk to you later
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  • #5,489
  • Jun 18, 2011 6:09am Jun 18, 2011 6:09am
Video from Raymond Merriman from last october about forex cycles just updated at www.youtube.com/raymondmerriman

Sixer
  • #5,490
  • Jun 18, 2011 6:11am Jun 18, 2011 6:11am
Quoting Sixer
jaylovin,

fine - i consider the pattern starting at 1.4940 as "a-b-c" too, not as an impulse.

infinitius,

the black numbers showing the intraday Delta count. This short time cycle has 12 turning points plus inversions each 4 calendar days.

Sixer
hi sixer..

i'm hoping we don't end up with a double correction but judging by the wave 2 being so brief and straight forward... we should be careful with the current moves of the market... i am pretty glad to be busy at work right now so i trade less... will see how this C leg down unfolds - then start to build longs until the autumn if PA agrees... GL
  • #5,491
  • Jun 18, 2011 6:51am Jun 18, 2011 6:51am
Quoting jaylovin
Hi Markus,

here are two different counts i have... as a rough guide.. not yet applied fibs to it as i've been really busy working... the first chart shows a downtrend count... we can potentially be in wave 3 down now but i find this highly unlikely... 2nd chart shows we are in wave 2 ABC zig zag down... then wave 3 will start... i have been told by my mentor euro may rise like there is no tomorrow... and to be fair this wave count seems better... i will confirm this more when i've worked out my fibs for wave count respect...

i still see...
Hi Jaylovin,

thank you very much. Have just "examined " your bearish count.

Take a look at your first black III. Inside of it you would have a subwave 3 which would be the shortest, and the black V consists only out of two bars aka 3 waves.

I follow a strictly fractal approach, so counting each bar in a wave.

The solution would be to end red 1 on your black III.

The red 2 then will be a flat.


Your bullish count is counted in Neo-Wave, right?

The last count I saw from the Maestro himself was this one:

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-6yjPQ25KJ2...count+2011.gif

Even Neely thought, that the wave up ended here.

Would really like to see an actual count of him :-)


If you think that EUR will go up that high, what is the resolution for that in fundamental terms?

Inquiring minds want to know :-)


Catch ya later my friend,

Markus
  • #5,492
  • Jun 18, 2011 7:13am Jun 18, 2011 7:13am
Quoting infinitus
Hi Jaylovin,

thank you very much. Have just "examined " your bearish count.

Take a look at your first black III. Inside of it you would have a subwave 3 which would be the shortest, and the black V consists only out of two bars aka 3 waves.

I follow a strictly fractal approach, so counting each bar in a wave.

The solution would be to end red 1 on your black III.

The red 2 then will be a flat.


Your bullish count is counted in Neo-Wave, right?

The last count I saw from the Maestro himself was this one:

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-6yjPQ25KJ2...count+2011.gif...
simply put, I don't believe in fundamentals anymore I used to follow it religiously but found elliott wave can explain these news movements...

depsite EU problems, the euro is still going up whether or not its in the limelight... and as you already know the more people that believe price will fall... the less likely it happens. EU debt is still there since it was 1.18... now almost 3000 pips later... well, can you fundamentally explain how we managed to get here? - this is why i don't believe in fundamentals

If you were needing a fundamental explanation then here could be a solution for you... which also might agree with your perpective on the markets:

Many are expecting the euro to hit parity - i don't deny this will happen but I don't see a structure to support this theory currently...

most of the down moves are corrective on a bigger TF... whoever said since 2008 that we are in a down trend should look at the monthy and weekly chart again... the impulse is up... the targets for the overall move can hit 1.9xx or more..

why can't we start to trade metals, commodities and energy with the euro rather than the USD?

but back to your question... historically a united currency hasn't yet worked... so the chances are it will crash... and HARD too... but in order for that to happen it must reach extremes... we are not there yet

1.9xx is extreme... EU tends to follow GU moves with delay... look at GU when it hit 2.00... it has far to fall yet my friend...
  • #5,493
  • Edited 8:13am Jun 18, 2011 7:26am | Edited 8:13am
Quoting jaylovin
simply put, I don't believe in fundamentals anymore I used to follow it religiously but found elliott wave can explain these news movements...

depsite EU problems, the euro is still going up whether or not its in the limelight... and as you already know the more people that believe price will fall... the less likely it happens. EU debt is still there since it was 1.18... now almost 3000 pips later... well, can you fundamentally explain how we managed to get here? - this is why i don't believe in fundamentals

If you were needing a fundamental...

Hi Jaylovin,

in Currencies one has to admit that there are powerful moves which are fundamentally driven. Prechter wrote something recently about it. Have to look it up.

But there is another problem with your perception of the situation.

Most of the trader/specs/people believe, that the USD is doomed, not the Euro. A few weeks ago, when Euro was at 1,49 again, we had only 5% USD bulls left. That has changed since then to 15% at 1.40x, and should now up again. When you look into COT-Data you can even see there, that the specs and large specs are very long the Euro.

If you believe that we are at the threshold of a rallye in EUR the question remains the same I have asked here in FF over and over again:

When everybody and his dog is bullish EUR, where to get the fuel from to ignite this rallye? Rallyes are made out of really bad mood, not out of party-mood.

Have found a count of (probably) Neely on the internet. It looks like that I have seen from him before.


Will catch you later since I am now about to drive home for the next 2 hours.
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  • #5,494
  • Jun 18, 2011 8:15am Jun 18, 2011 8:15am
Quoting infinitus

When everybody and his dog is bullish EUR, where to get the fuel from to ignite this rallye? Rallyes are made out of really bad mood, not out of party-mood.
the COT is a heavily delayed indicator which doesn't work for my style so i can't comment on its use... i also lean more towards the markets driving the fundmentals, not the other way round

what about when people start to short because they believe price is high? that could also still fuel prices to drive higher... how does that saying go?

'the markets can remain irrational longer than you can'

i'm all for the euro dropping buddy but everytime i got fed the fundamental rubbish, i lost so much money rather than to look at the chart and see what was actually going on...

question for you... if the 'large spec' traders are long.. who actually does turn the market to go against them??
  • #5,495
  • Jun 18, 2011 8:57am Jun 18, 2011 8:57am
Quoting jaylovin
the COT is a heavily delayed indicator which doesn't work for my style so i can't comment on its use... i also lean more towards the markets driving the fundmentals, not the other way round

what about when people start to short because they believe price is high? that could also still fuel prices to drive higher... how does that saying go?

'the markets can remain irrational longer than you can'
i'm all for the euro dropping buddy but every time i got fed the fundamental rubbish, i lost so much money rather than to look at the chart...
I like your post , sound an experience trader
My comment about the bold paragraph above in ur post:
You are totally right and if there is something worry me it will b seeing many buyers for us$ now "It's a basic fact of life that many things 'everybody knows' turn out to be wrong."

But
Sometime market do exactly as we See and that is most hard part
For example
If XX/BB pair will go up and it go down that change our conscious to always believe market do the unexpected and now if e/u go as many seller see depends on your thought that will b something not usual we see "
" because Many traders learn that Market always do the unexpected"
Hope i was clear and u got what i mean.

But here it what MR/Jim roger believe
"He is One of very famous trader and co-founded the Quantum Fund with Georg sors"
June 18, 2011


Because everybody's bearish, including me. I read something like 97 percent of people are bearish on the dollar. I am one of those 97, so I bought dollars.

"The US economy will not recover until we accept reality, stop spending money we don't have, go down to a lower level, and start over."

At the end we do our home work and let the fate tell his word.

Egkid
  • #5,496
  • Jun 18, 2011 9:04am Jun 18, 2011 9:04am
Quoting jaylovin
the COT is a heavily delayed indicator which doesn't work for my style so i can't comment on its use... i also lean more towards the markets driving the fundmentals, not the other way round

what about when people start to short because they believe price is high? that could also still fuel prices to drive higher... how does that saying go?

'the markets can remain irrational longer than you can'

i'm all for the euro dropping buddy but everytime i got fed the fundamental rubbish, i lost so much money rather than to look at the chart and...

Hi Jaylovin,

quick answer from an parking bay LOL (adicted)

Do not misunderstand me here: I am all for that the market is mainly driven by mood and not fundamentals :-) If I wood think the other way I could not do EW. Social mood does not need an extrinsic factor to be trigerd from good to bad. But especially in currencies there are sometimes fundamental forces that can not be ignored. At least for a short or intermediate time.

I for one only take notice of the heavy fundamental data, like interest rate decisions or for example the things happening now in regards to the PIIGS.

Most of the other stuff is plainly noise.

But why should shorting drive prices higher? Wil only happen, when the shorts are covered.

Since the Commercial Trader normally use currency trading for hedging purposes, you can normally see that the Comms are the counterpart of the specs.

To turn the specs it needs no one to turn them. They will start to run to the exit all at the same time without the "help" of other trading groups. Mass behavior.


See you later,

Markus
  • #5,497
  • Jun 18, 2011 9:13am Jun 18, 2011 9:13am
jaylovin,

i think we are still in a „sideways“ pattern as i stated last week which started at the high at 1.4940 and will last for some more weeks. All patterns are still corrective and are very difficult to analyze correctly:


http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images...rusd90176.gif/


My count is supported by the long term Delta cycles that´s why there is no need to prepare more.

Sixer
  • #5,498
  • Jun 18, 2011 9:13am Jun 18, 2011 9:13am
Quoting egkid
I like your post , sound an experience trader
My comment about the bold paragraph above in ur post:
You are totally right and if there is something worry me it will b seeing many buyers for us$ now "It's a basic fact of life that many things 'everybody knows' turn out to be wrong."

But
Sometime market do exactly as we See and that is most hard part
For example
If XX/BB pair will go up and it go down that change our conscious to always believe market do the unexpected and now if e/u go as many seller see depends on your...

Hi Egkid,

brilliant :-)


One of the causes that the USD will get more worth is the fact, that most of the debt on the world is denominated in USD.

Now we see that more and more of this debt is about to default.

If debt defaults, this IOU will never be monetized. Thus the remaining USD in the system starts to get more worth.

Second factor for EUR to lose against USD might be, that US-Banks sold their bad debt to a vast amount to European banks. When things start to slow down in the US more and more, the European banks have a very big problem. They need to be monetized. That will set the Euro under pressure. But that is not all for the European banks, since they are the biggest lenders to the PIIGS, they wil suffer here again. And again they need to be monetized.


Now I have to run really :-)

See you all later. Nice discussion here today.


BBL, Markus
  • #5,499
  • Jun 18, 2011 9:14am Jun 18, 2011 9:14am
Quoting egkid
I like your post , sound an experience trader
My comment about the bold paragraph above in ur post:
You are totally right and if there is something worry me it will b seeing many buyers for us$ now "It's a basic fact of life that many things 'everybody knows' turn out to be wrong."

But
Sometime market do exactly as we See and that is most hard part
For example
If XX/BB pair will go up and it go down that change our conscious to always believe market do the unexpected and now if e/u go as many seller see depends on your thought...

Hi EGkid,

agree with your post... we should take it as it comes... i read less about the markets these days and i am more profitable.. i don't expect to change my ways until the market says its time to adapt...

i expected many people were bearish on the euro but perhaps that cycle is now over and we are all bearish on the dollar.. time will tell and markets will direct...
  • #5,500
  • Jun 18, 2011 9:19am Jun 18, 2011 9:19am
Quoting Sixer
jaylovin,

i think we are still in a „sideways“ pattern as i stated last week which started at the high at 1.4940 and will last for some more weeks. All patterns are still corrective and are very difficult to analyze correctly:


http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images...rusd90176.gif/


My count is supported by the long term Delta cycles that´s why there is no need to prepare more.

Sixer

Hi Sixer,

you are very right. Counting this currency is a mess. But it is out of my sight a mess since the beginning LOL

Corrective pattern over and over. That lead me to the conclusion, that this pair is in a ery huge sideways pattern of a diagonal/triangle. I did write an article on my blog about that already.

Here is my long term count again:

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-M8RIpBP69w...count+2011.gif


Have to read more in your cycle "thing". Can you give me a clue where to start?

SYL, Markus
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