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Trading Price Pivots

  • #81
  • Jun 16, 2011 4:41pm Jun 16, 2011 4:41pm
What are these two charts saying?
First look at the weekly then the daily… If the daily candle were to close as it is now or maybe further down, what can logically be said as to what has happened and what might happen next? What is the higher probability direction price will take tomorrow or next week?
Now nothing is ever a certainty, but we can always try right…
Chantal
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: usdchf daily.gif Size: 31 KB
  • #82
  • Jun 16, 2011 5:13pm Jun 16, 2011 5:13pm
Quoting Chantalb
What are these two charts saying?
First look at the weekly then the daily… If the daily candle were to close as it is now or maybe further down, what can logically be said as to what has happened and what might happen next? What is the higher probability direction price will take tomorrow or next week?
Now nothing is ever a certainty, but we can always try right…
Chantal
...
Hi Chantlab

Prices have hit and rejected the 0.85 level on the weekly TF, on the daily a fractual is forming, so we wait for a pull back of the latter.

IB
  • #83
  • Jun 16, 2011 5:16pm Jun 16, 2011 5:16pm
Quoting Chantalb
I would like to ask this: if for any reason we miss an entry and that opportunity arises again later on, would that be an entry to consider if the underling market as not changed ?

All the Best
Il Brigante
I would if I got a retrace in the beggining of the week as I did on the EU trade a couple of days back... Does that answer your question?[/quote]

Cb

Yes it does.

IB
  • #84
  • Jun 16, 2011 5:45pm Jun 16, 2011 5:45pm
Quoting il brigante
Hi Chantlab

Prices have hit and rejected the 0.85 level on the weekly TF, on the daily a fractual is forming, so we wait for a pull back of the latter.

IB
...i'm agreeing with you but thinking back to what Chantal posted a while ago re wholesale vs retail prices...i'm wondering if price on this chart is at more of a wholesale level now to attract more serious buying...on the daily chart i see a long 123...but 0.85 is the nut the bulls need to crack first.
  • #85
  • Jun 16, 2011 6:21pm Jun 16, 2011 6:21pm
Quoting il brigante
Hi Chantlab

Prices have hit and rejected the 0.85 level on the weekly TF, on the daily a fractual is forming, so we wait for a pull back of the latter.

IB
Quoting sidefx
...i'm agreeing with you but thinking back to what Chantal posted a while ago re wholesale vs retail prices...i'm wondering if price on this chart is at more of a wholesale level now to attract more serious buying...on the daily chart i see a long 123...but 0.85 is the nut the bulls need to crack first.



Both of you are right BUT… What I see on the charts I posted earlier is the following… Two weeks ago we had a VERY bold close below 85, the week that followed retraced, this week up until earlier we had a RETEST of that breakdown that actually went as high as giving a very close triple top with yesterday’s candle and the one of 31-5-2011… now what this tells me, is maybe just maybe a nice down candle is in preparation for tomorrow or someday next week. But I would like to see today’s candle close deeper if that were to be the scenario to unfold.
Did it occur to you to question the small ranges of the past week and this one? Even though this one is still incomplete… But I think you get my point…
As for what sidefx mentioned, he has a point too. However this time if we wanted to long is the major line on our side? Hmmmm … ok so before we don’t get a clear view that price wants to maybe show some bullish action, we follow the trend down.

Ok It's very late here, good night all and good luck
  • #86
  • Jun 16, 2011 6:32pm Jun 16, 2011 6:32pm
[font=Calibri][size=3]Ok It's very late here, good night all and good


Chantalb

Sweet dreams. My day has just started here. It is sunny but cold.

IB
  • #87
  • Jun 16, 2011 6:49pm Jun 16, 2011 6:49pm
Quoting Chantalb
[size=3]Both of you are right [font=Calibri] BUT… What I see on the charts I posted earlier is the following… Two weeks ago we had a VERY bold close below 85, the week that followed retraced, this week up until earlier we had a RETEST of that breakdown that actually went as high as giving a very close triple top with yesterday’s candle and the one of 31-5-2011… now what this tells me, is maybe just maybe a nice down candle is in preparation for tomorrow or someday next week. But I would like to see today’s candle close deeper...
Thanks Chantal!

I've dropped down to the 4hr to present the potential bullish case in more detail, i must stress that I don't think it's a bull just yet ...to my mind it's simply shaping up that way..
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  • #88
  • Jun 17, 2011 1:17am Jun 17, 2011 1:17am
Good morning,
Today I want to talk about how we can filter end of week trades. End of week stands for Thursdays and Fridays and sometimes Wednesdays. Of course what I am touching upon here is not a rule fixed in stone. Since all we are trying to do is avoid trades that could potentially hit our stops. Now when you look at any weekly chart, isn’t obvious that any week usually ends as either an up week or a down week? So what I am suggesting here is until you get comfortable with the system don’t take end of week trades that are against where the week currently stands. Just skip those… To be more specific… for example look at EURAUD, price is currently way below the open of the week, however we got a pivot low which is signaling to take a long. Don’t trade it… and if you trade it be careful… Use that filter until you feel you know what you are doing
Yes you will miss some nice opportunities, but better be safe than sorry…
Same applies to monthly i.e. if we are in an up month and let’s say there is one week left or a few days left, don’t take the pivot high if you get one… makes sense no?
Another thing, don’t take trades where price is too close to 500 or 1000 numbers, unless you take profit on or just before those. EURAUD also applies here… Isn’t it obvious that 1.35000 in this case will most probably act as a concrete wall to price in the event it should attempt to climb up there?... Ok so now you also understand why I did not take that short on EURCHF yesterday. Even though I could and I would have taken a nice profit of at least 50 pips. But 50 pips is not what I aim for when I enter a trade.
What I like to see when I enter a trade around a major line is actually to know that this 1000/500 number is at my back and will give me a push in the direction of my trade. I don’t want to see it block my way as in the case of EURCHF…
Now if the week should close below 1.2000 EURCHF, then next week I would like to see a pivot high below 1.2000 so that I take a short…. I hope I am making sense to all of you and you are understanding my point. If you don’t please don’t hesitate to ask.
Good day to you all,
Chantal

  • #89
  • Edited 4:27am Jun 17, 2011 1:49am | Edited 4:27am
Hi Chantal,

Nice thread, wish you all the best

Happy Trade.
-
Tony
Forex
  • #90
  • Jun 17, 2011 2:14am Jun 17, 2011 2:14am
Top of the morning to you Chantal,
Its the end of a most glorious Friday here. Thank you for the lesson on filters. No problems understanding that one. I have reread the thread Again and I may be getting a glimmer of what you see when you trade. The method is simple enough but seeing how you see what the charts are trying to tell is a lot more complex
Loss of opportunity is preferable to loss of capital
  • #91
  • Jun 17, 2011 2:51am Jun 17, 2011 2:51am
Quoting Prochartist
Hi Chantal,

Just was reading your reply about filtering weekly trades yet i was to share with you my study on eurusd before i went long following your setup from deep.

Happy Trade
-
Tony
I see that you are still over complicating stuff… really it does not have to be so blurry… Just trade what you see on the chart, all the facts and news are in the price action. The daily candles say more to me than any news wire can ever say. Keep in mind that the euro is a very strong currency, had it not been for the issues with some of the member states, I think we would see it way over 2 by now… but who cares where it is or where it goes as long as we follow along cautiously! The way you traded this today is not at all how I trade. I am still short until the daily says otherwise with a convincing Pivot Low.
Tony please, in order not to confuse readers here who are already having a hard time as it is following my thoughts, don’t post your analysis unless it pertains strictly to the method at hand. I would be more than happy to read your thoughts by email.
Ok then, good luck on your current trade.
Cheers,
Chantal

  • #92
  • Jun 17, 2011 3:01am Jun 17, 2011 3:01am
Quoting Chantalb
[font=Calibri][size=3]IT]
Tony please, in order not to confuse readers here who are already having a hard time as it is following my thoughts, don’t post your analysis unless it pertains strictly to the method at hand. I would be more than happy to read your thoughts by email.
Ok then, good luck on your current trade.
Cheers,
Chantal

...
Thanks
For a moment there I thought I was having a serious blonde moment as I could not see Tony's trade as a price pivot trade.
Has anything in particular caught your eye this morning Chantal?
Loss of opportunity is preferable to loss of capital
  • #93
  • Jun 17, 2011 3:19am Jun 17, 2011 3:19am
Quoting Minka
Thanks
For a moment there I thought I was having a serious blonde moment as I could not see Tony's trade as a price pivot trade.
Has anything in particular caught your eye this morning Chantal?
What are you saying exactly cause I'm BLOND ... what's with blonds??!!! Hehehe just kidding... but I really am blond

Actually yes I entered 4 new trades, but it is not something I want to discuss at the moment because it is a much more advanced entry technique to the same method. I want you guys now to just fully grasp level 101 of this strategy. Then once I see all of you are ready, we'll shift to level 201
  • #94
  • Jun 17, 2011 4:20am Jun 17, 2011 4:20am
Go open 1h chart now on eurusd and gbpusd and see how market is starting to go up forming one fractal and now we are on the second candle ... what i try to do is predict the setup before it happen using 1h chart

Gbpusd is forming a perfect setup for an up move right now

Happy trade everyone
Forex
  • #95
  • Jun 17, 2011 4:30am Jun 17, 2011 4:30am
Quoting Chantalb
Good morning,
[size=3][font=Calibri]Today I want to talk about how we can filter end of week trades. End of week stands for Thursdays and Fridays and sometimes Wednesdays. Of course what I am touching upon here is not a rule fixed in stone. Since all we are trying to do is avoid trades that could potentially hit our stops. Now when you look at any weekly chart, isn’t obvious that any week usually ends as either an up week or a down week? So what I am suggesting here is until you get comfortable with the system...
Chantalb, thanks for the system, please can you post a chart to explain the filter,thank you
D labour of a fool wearieth him cos he doesn't know how to enta d city
  • #96
  • Jun 17, 2011 4:30am Jun 17, 2011 4:30am
Ok people, here comes the retrace of the 14-06-2011 EURUSD Pivot high… If price wants to keep heading towards 1.4000 we should CLEARLY be able to see that through price action on our fib levels that stretch from the high on the 14th to the low on the 16th. If EU has found a bottom at 1.4072 we will have to see that on the daily with a bold bullish candle. Remember what I said about RSI in the beginning of this thread? Well it looks like it is going to bounce back down from the 60-65 level in case of down move resumption…
Now we wait very patiently until we get very clear signals… rejection+good PP formation i.e. Pivot high on the hourly.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd 17-6-11.gif Size: 35 KB
  • #97
  • Jun 17, 2011 4:33am Jun 17, 2011 4:33am
Quoting Prochartist
Go open 1h chart now on eurusd and gbpusd and see how market is starting to go up forming one fractal and now we are on the second candle ... what i try to do is predict the setup before it happen using 1h chart

Gbpusd is forming a perfect setup for an up move right now

Happy trade everyone
Tony this is not how we are trading this here.... Kindly stop confusing the readers!
Thank you
  • #98
  • Jun 17, 2011 4:39am Jun 17, 2011 4:39am
[quote=Chantalb;4701017]What are you saying exactly cause I'm BLOND ... what's with blonds??!!! Hehehe just kidding... but I really am blond
[quote]
LOL Me too, i.e blond
Ok, if there are no trades can I bore you with a run down of what I think I have learnt.
First of all I should have an open/flexible mind but form a bias from the weekly charts using the filters you mentioned earlier, bearing in mind that things can change quickly. Once I have a bias, say for shorts then I would switch to the daily TF and look for a nice price pivot for going short. With that identified, I draw the fibs from the High of the pivot to the low of the confirmation bar and switch to an hourly(or 30 min)TF where again I look for nice price pivots and/or fib retracements for an entry. During this process I am also aware of the main trend direction and where the round number lines of S/R are are located in relation to my prospective trade.
This part is relatively straight forward but its all the nuances that are difficult to grasp. Stop loss 10 pips above Pivot high if going short.
For example, when a pair looks ready for a reversal rather than a continuation of trend which is I think where I am having difficulties with your entering the EURCHF trade the other day. I also have to visualize putting candles together and analyzing what they are telling me etc etc etc
Loss of opportunity is preferable to loss of capital
  • #99
  • Jun 17, 2011 4:39am Jun 17, 2011 4:39am
Quoting lordgbengs
Chantalb, thanks for the system, please can you post a chart to explain the filter,thank you
You are welcome, I will probably tomorrow as I won't be trading. Check in over the weekend

Cheers,
Chantal
  • #100
  • Jun 17, 2011 4:55am Jun 17, 2011 4:55am
chantalb hi ... I'm with you, I think e-u down

greetings .. very nice strategy
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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