Great Posts By Great Traders

Hi all,

When we log in to Forex Factory we should be able to read great posts.

I know most of us wants this as much as me and that's why I started this thread...

The rules:

 

1. There will be no comments on the posts unless from the quoter. This will leave the thread very neat and clean.
2. Dont put in a link to another post, press quote and copy the whole thing into this thread as a post reply (so the author will still be given credit for it). Even if the post is to big its good to see the short summary.
   
3. If there is several great posts on a row, a link can be given to the page.
4. The author of the post can of course comment on the quote as well.
   

I really hope for some good posts out of this so keep this thread in mind when you read something informative

And I thank all of you on beforehand for posting as I will not thank you with a quote (just for keeping the thread clean).


-Larseg

This is a very informative post which I really enjoyed reading and I would suggest for others. Thanks PTL.

The Greatest Traders, what separates the 10% that make it.
pivotfarm

http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/news_quote.gif 10,000 hours. In his recent book ‘Outliers’ Malcolm Gladwell describes the 10,000-Hour Rule, claiming that the key to success in any cognitively complex field is, to a large extent, a matter of practicing a specific task for a total of around 10,000 hours. 10,000 hours equates to around 4hrs a day for 10 years. For some reason most people that ‘try their hand’ at trading view it as a get rich quick scheme. That in a very short space of time, they will be able to turn $500 into $1 million! It is precisely this mindset that has resulted in the current economic mess, a bunch of 20-somethings being handed the red phone for ... (full story)

I like it this post because it is true and it goes against many books out there saying that this is not gambling. Well, the post from Merlin says it pretty good. Thanks M.

Chris Capre, Mentor and I would like to think friend.

"Think of Michael Jordan. He was one of the greatest basketball players ever. Regardless of his athletic ability, when he went into baseball, he struggled immensely and that was after having playing experience all through high school. Today he golfs and is considered to be just below the level of a pro player. He has amazing talent at almost any athletic endeavor he sets out to do, but regardless of all this, he was only able to master basketball. He practiced the game so intensely everyone around him had to work harder just to keep up with him. He would come early and stay after practice. Why? Because he knew to be a true master at the game of basketball, he had to dig one hole 50ft deep and not 50 holes 1ft deep.
If you are not digging your 50ft hole, but relying upon several methods, systems and tactics which are likely disconnected, you will never master trading. Do you really think institutional traders are trading 5-10 systems all at once? Do you really think a sniper becomes an expert marksman by learning how to use 50 weapons or a few? All experts in any field subconsciously know to be a master at anything, you have to dig your 50ft hole."

One of the coolest post's I have ever read on FF is by grkfx. It's from Carnegie's Order Flow-Achieving the mindset thread

"Think in terms of how you can identify the conditions and enviornment for placing a trade that is impossible to lose. Many of my trades are already won, before they are placed.

Then ask yourself what are you doing today, to help you catch the trades of the future that are impossible to lose.

What habits can you develop to help you consistently catch the trades of the future that are impossible to lose. "

This guy has alot of kick-a@@ post's, especially on Carnegie's and Scotty B's threads. That's the kind of stuff that makes FF so cool, when you dig and dig and dig, you can find post's from people like this that totally elevate your game.

A fine line but a big one after a couple of hundred trades, thanks for a nice explanation in layman terms

Thank you custos,

so for those who aren't profitable trading; I wish I knew and truly believed this when i started out...

Would make my life so much easier...

Larseg, this is indeed a great idea to compile all the good useful posts into 1 thread.

But my humblest opinion...

Can we get a link to said quote as well? So that people interested to read the whole thing can actually do so instead of having to do a search function?

Thx

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hey thelws..... if ya click on the blue arrow beside the quoted authors name it will bring you to the full thread and post......h

lol thx buddy. nvr knew that. till today! I'm liberated!!!

This question has a straightforward answer. A small account, if traded properly, can become an big account from which you can then live. The small trader should not be looking to live off his or her profits until they can be withdrawn without adversely affecting the continued compounding of the account. This means defining, in advance, a capital target at which withdrawals will commence. This target will differ for every trader depending on his or her expenses and lifestyle choices.

So. How do we get there? Let's dispel some myths.

1. Undercapitalization. One of the biggest myths of trading is that we need a certain "minimum" capital amount to avoid overleveraging ourselves and trade effectively. This is simply not mathematically true. A $100 Oanda account can be sized to the penny. For instance, if you decide on a 20-pip stop loss, you can trade a size of 1000, or 10 cents/pip for a 2% loss. This formula works the same way with $100 or $100,000. The amount of money makes no difference at all.

2. Pips. Seriously, who cares? The only thing we ought to be concerned with is ROI. In other words, percent. If you are risking one to two percent on a trade, you should be looking to make at least that amount in profit. A small trader should NOT define his or her goals by saying "I want to make 20 pips a day." Rather, the trader should aim to grow the account by a certain percent every day or week. That amount can be satisfied by even a small number of pips. Don't think you need to be a pipmaster to do this. This leads to overtrading, and ultimately, disaster. A small trader wants to make lots of pips due to impatience. But you must be patient.

3. Only trade higher timeframes. Yogi Berra said, "It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." And the more of it there is, the harder it gets. Predicting what a pair will do in 24-48 hours? Kinda hard sometimes. 24-48 minutes? A tad less hard. A small trader with a day job has a limited amount of time to trade. This trader needs to do one thing: compound. And do so relentlessly. Some of you will disagree, but I submit that the most effective technique for doing this is disciplined scalping. The key is to have an entry system to find your opportunity, and a money management system so you can calmly take it. Certainly you can use the higher timeframes to gauge the underlying trend, define support and resistance, etc. But trades can be sized rationally so that you can achieve your compounding target quickly. I do not think scalping is any more or less difficult than longer-term trading. It is a matter of knowing the market you're trading, which takes time and practice. But this knowledge is necessary no matter what timeframe you choose.

4. Frequency of opportunity. "Relentlessly" does not mean take every move. A small trader should be looking for the ONE opportunity that will yield the necessary % to compound the account for THAT DAY. When this target is achieved, trading should cease. Seriously, you have your 1 or 2%. Cut the BS already, take your profit, and STOP. If you look to trade every move, you're going to lose. Greed and hubris set in quickly, as do revenge and desperation. Relentless compounding means boringly setting out to do the same thing day in, day out, much like that day job you're trying to free yourself from. The market does provide many opportunities during the day, but you only need one. Wait for it, and set about your trade in blase, disciplined fashion. Then do it the next day. And then the next.

An entry system as your offense, a money management system as your defense, a % target as your exit strategy. And the discipline and sheer tenacity to trade and also stop trading. Put aside the greed, forget about the puny size of your account, and apply yourself. It works.

http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/cust...atar4636_3.gif avlasov
PhillyETOK

The information contained in this document, although highly entertaining and quite instructive, might lead you to believe that tomorrow you’re going to be a millionaire. You are not going to be a millionaire tomorrow. Well…that’s technically not correct. Because you could be a millionaire already, in which case tomorrow you’re guaranteed to be one.

"A bear chased two hikers.
One hiker, while being chased,
stopped to put on running shoes."

As he was changing out of his hiking boots, his companion looked at him in horror and exclaimed, “What in the world are you doing? You’ll never outrun the bear if you stop now!”

Calmly, the other hiker said, “I don’t have to outrun the bear. I just have to outrun you.”

The forex market offers more opportunity for fast financial success – and financial ruin – than almost any other market. The get-rich crowd has always been attracted to it. This crowd includes speculators, trading novices, retirees, and professionals looking for a way to get out of debt, increase the excitement in their lives, or simply get rich really fast.

These are the people who you will be taking money away from. These are the people who will be eaten by the bear. You don’t have to outrun the bear (the entire market). In fact, that’s impossible. You can’t beat the entire market. Those of you who try will learn fast that the market has no mercy, can outrun anyone, and shows no mercy.

I want to teach you how to run faster than the other traders.

The Four Groups

There are four groups in the forex market. There are the novice traders – the greenies, the ones who try to outrun the bear and lose every time.

In addition to the novice traders, there are three other levels of participation in the forex market: the dealers, the institutional traders, and the advanced traders.

The dealers are the most powerful and they make the market, setting prices and putting together deals.

The institutional traders work in banks, wire firms, or government agencies. They trade huge amounts of money at a time, and the size of their trades gives them enormous power.

Next, there are the advanced traders. This group is comprised of people from all across the world, sitting in smaller investment firms, offices, or even their homes. You can be a part of this group. In some cases, the advanced traders are the smartest group – trade for trade – than any other group. Because they don’t move a lot of money on each trade, they don’t have as much power as the institutional players. Because their trades are brokered by the dealers, they’ll never have absolute trading power. But, because there are so many novice traders – the advanced traders have plenty of people that they can outrun. Your goal as a forex investor is to aggressively take money out of the pockets of the novice traders.

Don’t feel bad about that. Someone’s going to take your money along the way, and it’s going to teach you, very quickly, lessons that can only be learned through failure. So, every time you take money from a novice trader, just remember: you’re teaching him a valuable lesson. After a while, you might even enjoy watching your hiking companion being eaten by the bear.

The Basics

Read this – a great forex primer: http://www.forex.com/history_forex.htmlOn the left navigation section, you'll see "Forex Pro > Short Term Trend Trading". This is an essential read for you – even if it seems technical in nature, you should read it anyway, just to get the information in your head one time. I suggest you read everything on this link, start to finish. Getting a background in the market takes about a week (at most), but it's very important for you to understand how the system works. The knowledge you gain early will pay off later. I didn't read this stuff BEFORE trading, and it actually kind of helps to read through the material while you’re entering and watching your first trades – because there’s nothing quite like trading while you learn. Read the sections in "Forex Essentials". This is as clear an explanation as exists.

Pips
Okay, now back to our program. To start, you have to understand what a "pip" is. A pip is the last number to the right in a currency. For example:

If the EUR/USD traded at 1.1335 this morning. The "5" is the pip. If it moved to 1.1535, which it did today, that would be a 200-pip move.<!-- #SELFPROMO# -->

The next concept that you need to understand is the concept of leverage. It’s a lot like margin in stock trading, only on steroids. It’s a simple concept. If you have $10,000 to trade with, your forex broker will let you borrow money from him so that you can trade in larger quantities. They will let you borrow as much as 400 times (400:1) what you put up in a trade. Most brokers allow between 50:1 and 100:1 margin. So, if you put up $1,000, and your broker allows 100:1 margin, then you’ll be trading $100,000 worth of currency (instead of $1,000).

That’s important, because every pip equals a certain dollar amount. When you trade $10,000, each pip movement equals $1. The chart below shows how it goes from there.

If you trade 1,000,000 worth of currency, each movement would be equal to $100. So if you bought at 1.1445 and sold at 1.1545, you would make 100 x $100, or $10,000. Now, I don't know about you, but I could live off of that much. That's not saying, however, that you can make $10,000 per day. Of course it's possible, but there are a lot of factors that make it very difficult. Like, how do I know that it's going up or down? When should I get in a trade?

Even more importantly, can you deal with the emotions of forex trading?

Alan Farley, a trading expert, rightly observes that mastering the emotions of trading is more difficult than mastering the technical skills. You’ll soon find out what he means by that.

Amount Traded $ Per Pip
$10,000 $1
$50,000 $5
$100,000 $10
$500,000 $50
$1,000,000 $100
$5,000,000 $500

Greed
Most traders in the forex market try to make a zillion dollars on every trade. They're greedy. This leads them to stay in a good trade, hoping to get more money out of it. This can lead to disaster -- the trade can move against them and they get creamed. This happens all the time, and it still happens to me from time to time. It's the single greatest threat in trading. But you can already understand why that's probably true. But how do you overcome greed when trading?

Revenge
This is the other big one. A lot of traders get creamed in the market and then want to strike back. So they double their last order and go for broke. This is natural, and I still deal with this emotion every day. The problem is, how does one combat this?

Do not underestimate this emotion. It will drive you to ruin if you let it. The market is not your friend. The market is so much more powerful than you are. You cannot get “back at” the market. Trading when angry or vengeful will be a total disaster. If you get rocked on the market, then back up, take a deep breath, and talk to a mentor. Re-read the charts. Take a break. Even if you think you see the best opportunity in the world after you get blasted – just take a break. There will be trades tomorrow.

A Different Strategy

It’s as simple as this: I don't try to make a ton of money on each trade, and I never try to get revenge. I’m not a scalper (someone who sits and makes 20-second trades for a few pips at a time).

Instead, I set up good trades, that have a lot of potential, and then I shoot for 10 pips. Just 10 pips. That’s it. I don’t let myself lose a lot of money. I only try to get 10 pips, and if that’s all I get, then I’m out for the day. It's easy enough to get 10 pips that once that threshold is met, it's okay to get out. When you know that you can turn turn $10,000 into $130,000 in one year on 10 pips a day, it's no longer important to strike back at the market or get greedy on one day of trading.

And you can learn to turn $10,000 into $130,000 in one year on just 10 pips a day.

Why is this innovative, different, or revolutionary? Because you are going to not only take money from novices with this strategy, you’re going to take money from other advanced traders. Advanced traders want big money. They didn’t spend years learning to trade so that they could make $200 a day. They want big, big returns. They go for 40 pips at a minimum. They are conservative with their trading capital because the market can take BIG swings against them when they’re waiting for 40 pips. Advanced traders think I’m nuts for getting out of a trade at 10 pips. What if it goes to 40 pips? Won’t I be upset that I missed out?

Not at all. I’ll show you later how I can still make those 40 pips. But I’m never displeased with 10. First, though, I’ll explain stops and limits.

Stops and Limits
A STOP is placed so that you don't lose too much money. For example, if I bought EUR/USD at 1.1445, I would start losing money if it started moving down. So, I might set a STOP at 1.1425 -- meaning, if the currency drops to that level, the system AUTOMATICALLY exits the trade. I'm out 20 pips, but that's a lot better than being out 40 pips if it starts tanking really fast (and this happens all the time, as you have seen).

A LIMIT works the same way, only for gains. If I set my limit to 1.1535 on that same trade, then later in the day (or the hour), when the currency moves up to 1.1535, the system AUTOMATICALLY exits the trade, and I make money. This happens whether I'm still at the computer, or down the street, or dead. THIS IS THE ONLY WAY TO TRADE IF YOU’RE NOT GOING TO BE PRESENT TO WATCH THE TRADE.

My system for trading relies heavily on three things:
1. Technical analysis - a ½ hour, 3 hour, daily, weekly, and monthly chart.
2. STOPS and LIMITS.
3. 10-pip goal every day. This requires DISCIPLINE.

If you started with $10,000 on January 1st, and earned 10 pips per day, and only traded 17 days of the month, then you would end the year 2,000 pips UP, and with about $130,000. For a spreadsheet that details this system, write me at [email protected].

If you continued the next year with 10-pips per day, the next year you would be making between $10,000 and $17,000 per month trading (depending on your risk tolerance). Can you do this? Absolutely. Can you do this today? Maybe, maybe not. You have to dedicate yourself 100% to learning how to trade intelligently.

The 7:10 Principles

1. Buy and sell on breakouts. I teach this in the 1 on 1 training, and I do it myself.
2. Stop trying to make $8 million on every trade.
3. Set a 10-pip limit only. Exit the trade at 10. Exit the trade at 10. Stops are set based on market conditions, but are always set.
4. Goal: + 10 pips every day.
5. If I earn more than 10 pips on a trade because the trade moves so fast in my direction, I can set my stop to protect the 10 and then go for more. I like to teach traders to just start going for 10. There are advanced strategies that go for more than 10, but we just start here.
6. There is no ‘makeup’ strategy. If I take a loss, then I’m just trying to end up with a 10 pip gain for the day. If I can’t get it, then I don’t try for 20 the next day, or whatever. I can keep trying for the 10 pips gain as long as I haven’t lost more than 5% of my capital.
7. Time: I can trade for 5 hours per day, meaning I can have the trading platforms open and sit at my computer for a max of 5 hours per day. If I can’t earn my 10 pips during that time, then I can set my stops and limits and walk away, but I can’t actively watch the market any longer.

The Daily Routine

Here’s a daily routine that I’ve used in the Strategy:10 system. Some of the most successful months of my trading career happened when I followed this plan. Up at 3:00 am EST. Check the charts.

Ask the following questions:
1. Where did the USD close (5pm EST) yesterday against the majors?
2. What effect will today’s economic reports have, if any, on the forex market?
a. FED interest rate movements
b. ECB decisions
c. Unemployment – Weekly Moving Average above or below 400k?
d. Greenspan speaking?
3. Are we at an all time high or low on the EUR or GBP or CHF? Or:
a. Are they way oversold or overbought? Is it better to not trade today?
4. If I make a trade now, what might go wrong? What’s the most I’ll lose? Gain?
Is the market just dead quiet right now? Moving fast?
5. Is the EUR or GBP moving right now? How far are the pairs from support and
resistance?


RB


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Thanks Rob, great post (not in FF anymore but active Sydney trader still...)

From driver55, Love you man

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Originally Posted by Driver55 http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Who is master in the art of living he little distinguishes between its job and its free time, between its mind and its body,its education and its recreation, its love and its religion. It pursues its vision of the excellence in any thing it makes, leaving the others to decide if he is working or playing.
It always thinks to make both the things together.

-Driver55

quote=merlin;15970]ok let me try to expand upon this. first off, let me say this...

YOU SHOULD NEVER TRADE 1 LOT

this does not mean you should over trade. it means that if you are trading 1 lot you are doing something wrong because you should be moving to smaller increments (if you are trading 1 mini, you should be trading 10 micro so you get better "resolution").

if your account is 5k or less you should be on a micro account, 100k or less you should be on a mini account. this is to keep your position size flexible.

so your about to put on a trade,..



quote=merlin;16005]now theres a question worth discussing!!!

first of all, if you have a system that wins every week, i dont care how much it makes, its a winner. if it makes even 0.5% per week you will be rich in no time. if you dont believe me just do the math. as Einstein said, compound intrest is the 8th wonder of the world.

its more realistic to look at returns on a monthly basis. there are traders out there that achieve profits every month (some as many as 80 months in a row). my personal goal is to return 2-5% per month on the entire portfolio,...

Great an inspiring quote, indeed. Thank you

A lot of traders, especially new ones, put a lot of trust in indicators thinking that prices would go and go directly to where the indicators say they should. A lot of traders believe that indicators can forecast the limits of behaviour. Traders believe that indicators can tell them what is reasonable or what is predictable based on the past.

The market as a whole is not reasonable; prices are set by traders, traders are impressionable and imitative, they are herd animals and follow the crowd either up or down, identifying the direction of the crowd is key; follow the dust trail, the noise of the stampede.

Prices and spreads vary they are not an arithmatic concept and fluctuate based on the societies they represent, Euro, USD, JPY etc.

Uncertainty is an indefinite condition, it does not follow indicators, it cannot be calculated.

A good dose of self doubt and perspective needs to check the indicators and what it is telling us before a trade is placed.

Even when traders get things right, prices cannot be expected to oscillate with precision of Elliott Waves or follow fib or trend lines precisely.

Today's prices cannot be inferred by yesterday's trend and data alone; trading should be a "whole" concept where all information is taken in by us the traders and a decision is made based on our interpretation of data.

A good trader is intuitive, using technical data, fundamentals and his "gut", his experience to enter and exit a trade succesfully.

Keep it simple, a few indicators that work for you (knowing their limitations) a TF and pair that you are comfortable with and have studied, one eye on bloomberg/yahoo/cnbc/bbc/ft/wsj, a good understanding of Price Action, risk vs reward, money management, lot sizing, support and resistance, trend lines, and off you go.


My 2 cents


posted by Cloggie in 2009.

by NiceGuy,

love it, enjoy


Trading is a losing game if you can not control yourself.

- If you afraid to lose, you will lose
- If you afraid to win, you will lose
- if you hope to win, you will lose
-If you lose your hope to win, you will lose
- If you greed you will lose
- If you are not greed, you will lose
- If you are late you will lose
-If you are too early you will lose
- if you get dissapointed and mad when you lose, you will lose even more.


But it's funny how my mentor keep saying : "Forex is like picking money from the floor. It's as easy as that. The problem start only when you start to take more than what you need."

Balance is the key. Learn from the universe around you. How God created the universe and put everything in a balance to make everything work. That's the rule of this universe. So it means, your trading strategy will only work if you can find a balance inside you. Balance between fear and hope. Balance between starting and stoping the trade. Balance between being smart and be a stupid. Balance between doing the trading and doing everything else you are supposed to do in your life.

There's a limit in everything. The price will not climb or falling forever. At some point it has to rest for turning around or continue further. We should learn from it.

It means, we can not break our limit and expect to become a good trader in a day, a month or even a year. We just have to keep punching and kicking our limit step by step while maintaining a good balance inside ourself. Sometimes we have to stop to get rest before we continue later.

Forex will teach you so much about yourself. Learn from it to recognize and overcome your weaknesses. Keep your balance straight, so you can stand on it. If your balance fall, you will fall.

Remember this, You only lose when you lose your money. Missing an opportunity to make a money is never make you a loser. Dont push your luck by forcing a trade, be patience. There'll be plenty of opportunity in another time.


NG

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....h

This post helped me in so many ways. It is by TheRealThing


http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif Can this forum handle some truth? Trading for a living--
Can this forum handle some truth? Note: this is not a negative post.

I've been trading for a living for many years. Using robust methods that have worked for decades, and I trust will continue for more decades. I've had good years and slow years, while very successful over the long haul, thought I better tell those who think that trading can replace their job have the better odds winning the Powerball. Really! There are hundreds more who have won big in the Powerball than actually earn their money from private trading.

Thinking otherwise is denying reality and the facts. It is easy to ignore because the facts about trading are difficult to dig out, and only the determined care to find out anything or succeed at anything worthwhile.

After reading many posts in these threads, I decided I had to weigh in on a couple of things. I would have to agree with -Isotonic- that a very small subset of posters are actually trading for a living.

Most of my friends are traders, many of whom I helped bring into the winning fraternity. We all have to keep on our game every day, 100% , or some mistake could eradicate months or years of progress.

"Making a living" is very much a similar question as of what "is" is.

All of the professional traders I know, whether they trade forex or futures markets, do not make "so much per day". That is a phrase used by marketers, because they know what beginners are looking for, and that is a steady income so they can get rid of their jobs. Money from the market that you can count on does not come steady or nicely "so much per day". Real traders make profits, budget their expenses, save some profits, add some profits to their accounts for further building of the account, etc. Just like any business, which is what real trading is.

Most of the trading setups that you see bandied about are "tricks". Most "tricks" have small edges, and trading them continually teaches little about the big picture, and the big picture is where the big money is made. When a marketer is trying to separate you from your money, he is likely promoting a "trick".

Nothing wrong with trading these "tricks", if you know that they have a strong, provable edge. But, to know that a "trick" has a definable edge, you already have to have an underlying construct or context to compare and/or use that edge.

Almost like the chicken and the egg. To know something has an edge you have to know what an edge is.

Quickly, name all your friends who have that going for them. A couple of great trades, or a month of great trades, or a year of great trades is nowhere near enough. To make 50 thousand-plus trades and be ahead, to be able to survive years of changing markets, politicians, governments, wives, ex-wives, good health, bad health--- while trading profitably is what you need from an edge.

Private, profitable traders (those who've done the above) can tell you their edge immediately, and can prove it. Unfortunately, this set of traders is very small, estimated a few years ago by a research company at less than 800 in America--- and most of you reading this will never among them. And that is not a bad thing. That doesn't mean that you won't make money from your trading. You might even have more richness in your life by doing something else than trade.

I will tell the only way a trader is able to make $1,000,000 from trading.

Here's an example of 10 thousand trades. Of these trades, you might lose on 6000 of them for small losses, win on 3800 of them for moderate profits, and win fairly big on 200 of them. You make your million from this series of trades by losing only $9 million on your total of losing trades while making $10 million dollars on your total of profitable trades. This means averaging $50 a trade per lot or contract (in the case of futures), which is really good after expenses. Very doable with robust methods. And, you have to stay on your game or you won't do this well.

But this is nothing like you've been promised by the "gurus" and promoters of the "money per day" foolishness.

Trading for a living is demanding mistress. Read on if you can stand it.

99% of my success has come from trading and working breakouts. Primarily larger breakouts. Why? They work!

When you learn that breakouts "work" as a trading concept, over the years you continually seek the best breakouts like seasoned surfers all continually seek the best waves. The best breakouts use and highly reward your acquired skills better than lesser ones. Then you stay trading in the zone where the greatest edge is and trade the best breakouts and ignore less useful ones.

For, example, I know that the Vegas material (I have no personal connection with him whatsoever) dealing with the one hour tunnel has a firm statistical edge. A rock-solid statistical edge.

But it takes a professional to trade it. And the method's breakouts are small in expectation relative to others available. But, as in most tradeoff situations, there are more of them.

I wouldn't have any problem encouraging someone to follow the concept for trading. But, I would be willing to bet that less than 1 percent of the people who have downloaded his material are trading it, and probably an equally small percentage of them will profit long term from trading with it.

Trading as a lifestyle is like being a fireman who gets paid per fire. You don't make any money until a fire happens, and you don't make any money if you die in the fire or quit before the fire is over.

I know that posting this may not encourage trading as a career, but if I can shine a little light on the reality of trading, I'm happy to do it. I wish someone had illuminated for me what I was in for 25 years ago when I got serious. It wouldn't have stopped me for a second, but it would have helped me prepare for the future differently.

I know that anything I could say would never discourage someone who is meant to be a trader, because nothing can dissuade a real trader, which is as it should be.

I personally love trading, and believe that it is the one thing I am best suited to do on earth. There are times trading is fun, but mostly it is details, details, and risk management. The best times are after a long trading campaign (fire) and you are relatively flat for a while. You can take time to get perspective. And get mentally prepared for the next one.

Most people think that communities like this forum make it easier to learn how to trade, but I am certain the opposite is true. If most of the posts are from non-winners the only logical reaction for an individual who wishes to win is fade the advice you see in these forums.

Everyone posting has a motive, even me. Most motives are simple self promotion, aspiring traders trying to make themselves feel good, look smart. A few posters have the motive to help others. Many figure that if they can't win, maybe they can help someone else and that makes them a winner somehow. Maybe so. But likely it is a case of the blind leading the blind.

I'd bet you'd rather make money from trading the markets the way things really are, not the way some very literate, but non-winner says they are. Think of that the next time you read a "helpful" post. 99.9% odds the post is from a non-winner.

Trading is a solitary business, with few peer get-togethers except by phone. And when you get discovered by people hoping to accomplish what you've done with extreme care and trial by fire (amazing fireman analogy again!) they demand your help and time (hard won by now) but don't want to compensate you because they think you should just give to them because you've been so fortunate.

Perhaps this missive will be useful to someone. If no one believes it, that is ok too.

I'm off to tend a fire in the metals, the other currencies.

Best wishes on the NFP report in an hour.


-TheRealThing-