Order Flow - Achieving the mindset

i don't think anyone's mentioned the 3925 300M barrier expiring Monday...?

I'm not sure but the way it looks on the M1 it looked like someone was checking how strong the offers were by buying into them until eventually the level broke.

Then at 1.4220 there position was squared. Almost looks the same as a stop hunt without the Option which would be possible if there were enough stops to unload into.

that's a plain vanilla expiry not exotic binaries...

oh.. i forgot all of the IFRs are vanilla unless it says otherwise, but still, doesn't the writer have an interest in price closing below that level at the expiry? assuming its a call.. I guess the problem is we don't know if it is or not..

or if they just wanted to clear the orders... thin liquidity...

that's the delta hedging stuff... if spot is close to it and it's a big one, there will be interest but otherwise screw it.. watch what happens next time it gets to one around the NY cut and it's decent size... or if they are hemming price in a range when nothing else is going on giving it direction...

I learned this the hard way lol.. But yeah unless it's large and nearby, it's not a biggie at least in my opinion..it gets kinda messy too as price tends to yo-yo around it.

If I trailed my stop that's where it would have been, above the 1.4200 congestion. I don't doubt that this was a stop-related move at all, and the move up to 1.4220 looks like a small cascade of said trailing stops above 1.4200 in a short-market under thin liquidity. Looks as if it could have been done, like Monroe said, to get to expose/sniff offers above there. By the looks of it 1.4230 may have some size. May make for a nice little bounce play actually...until more dangerous firepower from London/early Europe comes online.

Regards,
xXTrizzleXx

June 17, 06:35 GMT Euro Govt outlook Panic over now, but beware Friday swings.

The panic in risk markets has eased slightly, with some clarity on the Greece finally emerging at least as reguards to what to expect from the next few days. With the IMF now standing ready to support Greece, no longer requiring a longer term aid program to be agreed upon by Eurozone officials before releasing the next Greek aid tranche, the next EUR 12bn line of aid necessary to ensure Greece can make hefty payments due next month will be disbursed imminently London, June 17(IFR)

Funny I looked on the IMF site and could not find anything about this. Anyway was bearish all week intil this bit. Good weekend to all.
Louie

With today's reclamation of the 1.43 handle EUR/USD has made quite a decent stab at gaining some respect back. An assist from "risk on" US equity markets (what a shock) has supported the move (US stocks +0.24/0.77%, S&P 1277) but the real reasons lie in Europe and the fact that finally, yes finally, European politicians seem to be starting to realize like our Founding Fathers in the United States, they'll either "swing together or swing separately".

Merkel and Sarkozy favour a Vienna waltz (well solution anyway) Merkel says she wants to work with the ECB on a role for investors in the Greek workout, Papandreou "successfully" reshuffled his cabinet, the Fin Min is gone (poor sod) EU's Asmussen says the EU must give "assurance" to Greece (and markets presumable) by 'mid- July" (It looks like that self-imposed EU June 20 deadline, and more importantly the IMF's June 30 have been blown away (it will be interesting if that gets discussed openly)

The" feel good" statement that started it all - Reuters News - "The German and French leaders said on Friday they were united behind a new aid deal for Greece that would include voluntary private sector participation on the basis of the so-called "Vienna Initiative". German Chancellor Angela Merkel said this approach, based on the 2009 agreement by banks to maintain their debt exposures in central Europe at the height of the financial crisis, was a "good foundation" for a Greek deal.

Van Rompuy says that Ireland is "on way to restoring confidence", that he's confident a Greek package will come to fruition but cautioned the warring opposition parties in Greece that this is "no time for party politics". Bini-Smaghi says he thinks "Greece can make it" The new Greek Fin Min (Evangelos Venizelos) says problems can be solved in "friendly way" without deviating from fiscal targets.; with the help of the Greek people Greece will succeed in solving crisis. First priority, viability of Greek debt."

However not all the headlines were rosy; Venizelos admitted they still do not have a national consensus on the required austerity cuts. The IMF cut growth forecasts due to concerns over contagion risks from the Euro Zone. Bini-Smaghi said if Greece goes into default it will mean misery for the country. Just in case anyone had thought that Greece was the only "bad news" topic, Almunia reminded us that West Deutsche Landesbank restructuring still needs to be completed (concrete proposal in coming weeks) Bank of Spain's Roldan reminded us that their 'Cajas" (S&Ls) will be transformed into banks, sees consolidation."

Bini-Smaghi (he had lots to say) Says he doesn't know what would happen if Greece defaulted, in the same way he did not know what would happen after the Lehman collapse (wonder if the Fed wishes they had a "do-over" on that one?) He also says they must be careful not to over-estimate potential rate of growth after the crisis (presumably Greek growth but it does beg the question on how the whole EZ is impacted by the turmoil in Euro debt marts) The Irish PM says Ireland will raise the issue of Anglo Irish senior bondholders with the ECB "in the Autumn" (another for the too difficult to solve" inbox) Almunia says they will clear "billions" in state aid for Anglo and Allied Irish banks after they submit restructuring plans by "end-July". Is worried about duopoly of Irish banking system.


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looks like neutral territory to me... friday... i'm tempted to short this bounce at overbought tech levels and strong daily resistance, but we'll see what happens over the weekend...

Looks like I was right about using risk reversals in the same way as COT report. Maybe just a coincidence.

I take this back, it's just partially delta-hedging, not mostly...

I've played it..recently, its got good platform..why?

Forexlive tweeted about a big buy order around 4255, with prop traders long and stops below 4250. I read that and felt like a short was in order, because I thought those stops might be gunned. That and the Greece drama today, which I felt might drag the euro down.

Anyone else play that? It felt right at the moment, but i think I may not be taking enough into account?

yes good analysis, weak hands... they were riding ahead of rumored ACB bids that either weren't there or were pulled and after the greek crap hit the front pages.

either which way, the technicals were screaming down from friday afternoon.

we also have risk off and oil dropping big to fuel it as well...

I'm cautious down here though with london kicking in soon... more towards 4170/75

OF thinking is starting to drive me crazy...

so if they're going to throw out scissors,
then I'll throw rock, but they will know that I'll throw rock,
and they'll throw paper,
so I'll just throw scissors,
but if they know I'll know that.. then I'll just throw rock! yeah, rock.
and europe is about explode, so I'll go short, but no wait, CNN is showing how scared everyone is about Greece, so I shouldnt...

fuck it

Yep sounds like you're doing it about right!

Good scenario analysis.

Expectations and sentiment determination too? I'm impressed!

Maybe rest on it and approach it when you wake up with a fresh head. That often helps me put things in perspective. A tired mind is a really underestimated thing!

Regards,
xXTrizzleXx

it just seems impossible to pinpoint sentiment, because the news is always spittin out some bs reason for why this and that happened.. so it is like sentiment seems to always be changing.. i still feel subject to all of the media manipulation..

it seems as if the whole market is focused upon one thing, then wouldn't someone gladly go stop hunting and drive the euro through the roof?

I guess that's exactly what happened on friday. price diverged from sentiment

Anyone knows what is an LGE? IFR's option calendar shows 4200 - LGE.

Any guesses?

Perhaps you can put yourself in the position of someone tied to the situation; let's say a hedge fund manager short EUR/USD.

On Thursday know there's going to be great uncertainty due to a whole series of meetings to decide the fate of Greece and the EZ, and so going into the weekend, you feel confident about your position, especially because you've just been told that the EFSF may have to be doubled in size!

But then, on Friday Merkel and Sarkozy have a meeting. At the meeting, Merkel buckles and says she just wants a quick solution for this whole mess, she's no longer going to be the stubborn one at the table in all this, and wants to work amicably to resolve the situation. The new Greek Fin Min then comes along with several other EU speakers saying that something may be able to be worked out at the meeting. The market breathes a proverbial sigh of relief. Hmm..short's not looking to good..do I still want to hold it over the weekend? Some of the other traders I spoke to are covering their shorts already..Decisions, decisions..but I'm an inefficient human..I'm emotionally attached to this position...Greece is going to go down..everyone knows it!

On Monday you arrive at your desk to read that over the weekend, the Fin Ministers were too busy watching golf to come to a reasonable decision, so they've decided to delay specifics about the IMF tranche plans to next month, just ahead of when Greece is scheduled to urgently need funds for Bond Redemptions. You also have a parliamentary vote of no confidence that has to be passed with what looks like an effective 4 seat majority by the incumbent government. But I thought the market was expecting some kind of resolution over the weekend? Unexpected development? EUR's dropping? I love it! Let me scale in a little more into this move....

It's all like a big story. Try at first to describe the sentiment in one word at the end of each session. Then you can try to tune into subtle changes as you become more familiar with what's at stake, potential deadlines on the horizon etc.

I thought it stood for large.

Hope this helps
xXTrizzleXx

Large? hmm. Seems likely.

I had taken a short from 4200. Closed at 1 pip loss after IFR's calendar was out. My guess is 4200 + 4250 = not much movement today.

I could be wrong. So lets see.