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Elliot wave, Harmonic And Ichimoku in CHINESE STYLE

  • #5,461
  • Jun 16, 2011 12:40pm Jun 16, 2011 12:40pm
Id say yes if QE3 occurs, but $4 gas is a US show stopper...we have knocked our heads against that number twice with a serious rejection



Quoting RamsesII
lol, just felt like ruffling some feathers
  • #5,462
  • Jun 16, 2011 12:47pm Jun 16, 2011 12:47pm
Quoting needpips
Id say yes if QE3 occurs, but $4 gas is a US show stopper...we have knocked our heads against that number twice with a serious rejection
to be honest the top isn't in scenario is like a 55% favourite, i really have no idea which dicrection this will take over the next few months, all i know with decent certainty is that the shorter term trend is down
Don't have an ego. Always question yourself and your ability.
  • #5,463
  • Jun 16, 2011 1:34pm Jun 16, 2011 1:34pm
A possible corection for wave 4 from C. I follow a flat, because the wave 2 of the wave C it was a double zig zag ( alternation rule) . Target for corection is 1.427.

I wish u all the best !!!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd.gif Size: 11 KB
  • #5,464
  • Jun 16, 2011 1:41pm Jun 16, 2011 1:41pm
Quoting infinitus
Hi Captain,

please explain, why a triangle here is "highly" likely. Over the last months I am more and more surprised how easy people counting triangles, diagonals etc with only having 1, 2 or 3 waves.

Best to you,

Markus
Hi, Markus,

Sorry, I didn't make a note of my terminology. When both forecast: price structure of wave and time component(or cycle componet) agree together, and pinpoint a zone, then, I define this forecast is with highly probability. This is my usage of "highly possibility". But, the market or market makers may not agree with me. Big guys may use other measure for highly probability. That is ok, we just watch price move, only when price is on your way, then, we may bid. Otherwise, do nothing. Forecast is never 100%.

Some significant drawbacks exist in Elliott wave or other wave forecast, eg. lack of a time component. The market is not running only on lines, curve lines of wave. So, EW often fail in real-time running. EW is not reliable tool for price projection, but, a good learning tool to play, and enjoy. This is my view. My macro wave theory and projection will improve performance of wave forecast I expect.

Enjoy your trading.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: WC_euro_H4_16 June 2011.jpg Size: 110 KB
  • #5,465
  • Jun 16, 2011 1:43pm Jun 16, 2011 1:43pm
Quoting CaptainClaw
A possible corection for wave 4 from C. I follow a flat, because the wave 2 of the wave C it was a double zig zag ( alternation rule) . Target for corection is 1.427.

I wish u all the best !!!
hey cap'n, would you mind showing your subdivision of waves from wave 2 to wave 3? I don't believe it counts well as a full 5 waves yet as I think we see lower to finish "major 3" down. I still have that bottom as 3 of 3, which you can see in my earlier post.
Don't have an ego. Always question yourself and your ability.
  • #5,466
  • Jun 16, 2011 2:10pm Jun 16, 2011 2:10pm
Quoting RamsesII
hey cap'n, would you mind showing your subdivision of waves from wave 2 to wave 3? I don't believe it counts well as a full 5 waves yet as I think we see lower to finish "major 3" down. I still have that bottom as 3 of 3, which you can see in my earlier post.
Hi Ramses

This the best i could do . I would have preferred more serios retrace for wave ii and iv , but.....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd.gif Size: 13 KB
  • #5,467
  • Jun 16, 2011 2:16pm Jun 16, 2011 2:16pm
Quoting CaptainClaw
Hi Ramses

This the best i could do . I would have preferred more serios retrace for wave ii and iv , but.....
Thanks captain, I love EW debate and hope you aren't offended by me marking your chart. I view your ii to iii as a 3-wave move, which I actually labeled as 1-2 (if you can count this as 5 i'd love to see it). But this is the reason why i still have wave 3 as incomplete. Cheers
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: chal.GIF Size: 15 KB
Don't have an ego. Always question yourself and your ability.
  • #5,468
  • Jun 16, 2011 2:23pm Jun 16, 2011 2:23pm
Quoting RamsesII
Thanks captain, I love EW debate and hope you aren't offended by me marking your chart. I view your ii to iii as a 3-wave move, which I actually labeled as 1-2 (if you can count this as 5 i'd love to see it). But this is the reason why i still have wave 3 as incomplete. Cheers
U welcome Ramses

Is no probleme to draw on my charts, pls do

I attached lower my view on the 3 wave. Wave (i) from iii ( which i consider it is iii ) is the shortest and wave (v) is the longest.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd.gif Size: 14 KB
  • #5,469
  • Jun 16, 2011 2:30pm Jun 16, 2011 2:30pm
Quoting CaptainClaw
U welcome Ramses

Is no probleme to draw on my charts, pls do

I attached lower my view on the 3 wave. Wave (i) from iii ( which i consider it is iii ) is the shortest and wave (v) is the longest.
Great! I believe the subdivision of that wave is fairly critical on what will happen later and how deep we will go in C or 3. It should be apparent soon whether your count or mine is correct, though...we should know by the end of the week! Happy pippin

edit: just adding my count as reference.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...7&d=1308228782
Don't have an ego. Always question yourself and your ability.
  • #5,470
  • Jun 16, 2011 2:36pm Jun 16, 2011 2:36pm
Quoting RamsesII
Great! I believe the subdivision of that wave is fairly critical on what will happen later and how deep we will go in C or 3. It should be apparent soon whether your count or mine is correct, though...we should know by the end of the week! Happy pippin
And to number all subdivision, i could say that wave (v) of iii it was an ending diagonal.

I wish u a wonderful evening !!!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd.gif Size: 14 KB
  • #5,471
  • Jun 16, 2011 2:38pm Jun 16, 2011 2:38pm
Quoting RamsesII
This is my current longer term favourite.
Hi Ramses,

you know, that I do not think that we will make another high but that I go for parity at least.

Well, if I had to choose a bullish scenario, I would clearly go with your kind of count (this wxy-count since 1.18).

I have seen a lot of counts over the last months which try to count an impulse, but they al seem to have the problem that it would have to start with an leading diagonal. And LD's are very rare on such a high degree.

Will definitively safe your count to take a further look at it :-)


Best to you, Ramses,

Markus
  • #5,472
  • Jun 16, 2011 2:42pm Jun 16, 2011 2:42pm
Quoting infinitus
Hi Ramses,

you know, that I do not think that we will make another high but that I go for parity at least.

Well, if I had to choose a bullish scenario, I would clearly go with your kind of count (this wxy-count since 1.18).

I have seen a lot of counts over the last months which try to count an impulse, but they al seem to have the problem that it would have to start with an leading diagonal. And LD's are very rare on such a high degree.

Will definitively safe your count to take a further look at it :-)


Best to you, Ramses,

Markus
Like I said earlier in the thread, I'm only slightly leaning toward this with your more bearish scenario being a close second. I think the clue of how far this wave 3/C moves will allow for a more decisive opinion for the long term as I'm currently open to both. Best to you as well!
Don't have an ego. Always question yourself and your ability.
  • #5,473
  • Jun 16, 2011 3:24pm Jun 16, 2011 3:24pm
Quoting RamsesII
lol, just felt like ruffling some feathers
  • #5,474
  • Jun 16, 2011 3:41pm Jun 16, 2011 3:41pm
Quoting CaptainClaw
U welcome Ramses

Is no probleme to draw on my charts, pls do

I attached lower my view on the 3 wave. Wave (i) from iii ( which i consider it is iii ) is the shortest and wave (v) is the longest.
Hi Captain,

nice discussion here.

I do a lot of momentum analysis in the different waves. In your count the momentum would be biggest in subwave 5 of wave 3. That would be very seldom. On rare occasions one can observe that, when the pressure in direction of trend is extrem high. If that occurs, I would like to see a running flat for wave 4 or a skewed triangle.

Momentum analysis fits best with Ramses' count.


Best to you,

Markus
  • #5,475
  • Jun 16, 2011 3:45pm Jun 16, 2011 3:45pm
Quoting infinitus
Hi Captain,

nice discussion here.

I do a lot of momentum analysis in the different waves. In your count the momentum would be biggest in subwave 5 of wave 3. That would be very seldom. On rare occasions one can observe that, when the pressure in direction of trend is extrem high. If that occurs, I would like to see a running flat for wave 4 or a skewed triangle.

Momentum analysis fits best with Ramses' count.


Best to you,

Markus
as i do see you target parity here ? so where is your entry/entries and where would you cut your losses- ?

are you still short ?
  • #5,476
  • Jun 16, 2011 4:46pm Jun 16, 2011 4:46pm
Quoting Speed
as i do see you target parity here ? so where is your entry/entries and where would you cut your losses- ?

are you still short ?
why should I?

I trade the waves as they come.

I trade mainly at 1, 5 or 15min TF, sometimes I even use the 20 or 30 sec chart.
  • #5,477
  • Jun 18, 2011 3:28am Jun 18, 2011 3:28am
Hello,


can anybody explain why this intraday pattern of the EURUSD from the high at 1.4695 should be counted as an impulse as shown in different counts during the last days ?


http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images...urusd5176.gif/


There is an interaction of w.i and w.iv if i follow this advice !


Sixer
  • #5,478
  • Jun 18, 2011 4:12am Jun 18, 2011 4:12am
As I described yesterday, the very high retracing move made it necessary to change the count.

Elliott pointed to the upside, that was sure. But I was surprised, that it did not stop at around 4220. So I had to recount and sometimes a count with a small likelihood gets the price. That was here the case. I think that a big portion of the EW-people waited for a final wave 5 down, but it was done already. It was a very tiny wave 4 and 5 nearly nobody would have expected.

Heads up to all the people here which get it right from the beginning. Some called 4320 this morning, some came even with higher targets. I wondered at that point.

With this move such high the bearish case is severely weakened. We have to drop now fast below 4220 to stay in the bearish case. If the bearish case stands, then we have seen a 1-2, 1-2 move from the top at 469x

We can run up to 4496 without losing the bearish case. Right now (if we count the move up as ABC) we have C > 1.27x A That is a good point to go south again. The 1.62 extension is around 4370

look at the first chart


The area around the top now is critical. It counts good on 15min and 60min TF.

Here is the 15min view:


look at second chart:



But on 30min we have the problem of a quiet extreme subwave 2 flat (in green 5), but that is tolerable.

On 4h chart the yellow C wave shows only two up bars. The second up bar is very tiny in comparison with its preceding bar. That would allow for an ABC count.

Well, one could make the whole move up since 4072 to an WXY, but I suspect it.

Maybe we have to change the count at the top to the following and allow for a small push higher at Sunday / Monday. This count even allows for a move down first on Sunday to around 4250-4240 to fulfill the flat. It can conclude earlier, but normally wave C of a flat teaches minimum the end of its wave A. Running flats are very rare (in a running flat wave C does not reach the end of wave A), so chances are high that we might see a push down first. Maybe a good opportunity for all shorts to cover.

Lets have a look:


look at the third chart


The 4h count would allow a wave 5 maximum of 4363. Since wave 3 was shorter on 4h TF than wave 1, wave 5 has to be the shortest.

4363 coincides with the C = 1.62 x A at 4374


Well, if we do not make a new high we keep wondering about the strange looking 4h TF. :-)

Wish all of you a nice weekend,


Markus
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 06182011 1h noon main count bearish eurusd.jpg Size: 84 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 06182011 15min a noon main count bearish eurusd.jpg Size: 77 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 06182011 15min b noon main count bearish eurusd.jpg Size: 85 KB
  • #5,479
  • Jun 18, 2011 4:15am Jun 18, 2011 4:15am
Quoting infinitus
why should I?

I trade the waves as they come.

I trade mainly at 1, 5 or 15min TF, sometimes I even use the 20 or 30 sec chart.

interesting power with the euro infinitus wouldnt you say?

i see 1.55 before parity.. but still more down to go yet imo..
  • #5,480
  • Jun 18, 2011 4:35am Jun 18, 2011 4:35am
Quoting Sixer
Hello,


can anybody explain why this intraday pattern of the EURUSD from the high at 1.4695 should be counted as an impulse as shown in different counts during the last days ?


http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images...urusd5176.gif/


There is an interaction of w.i and w.iv if i follow this advice !


Sixer

Hi Sixer,

to keep the bearish stance in this count the two big down-swings have to be counted as a combination of 1-2, 1-2

Only a move above 4496 invalidates this count.

BTW: the chart shows a numbering. Is that Demark count?


Best to you, have a nice weekend,

Markus
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