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  • #981
  • Jun 10, 2011 3:47pm Jun 10, 2011 3:47pm
Quoting RichFWebb
"Unexpected" drop in the Eur/USD
Wasn't too "unexpected" for me as I was rather expecting the drop in oil. Stocks aren't helping either, and Tritchet's speech was less likely to move the euro further up. Orderflow-wise, that 4530'ish correction was perfect for going short for me.

Correction on Monday is likely but my overall bias is still rather bearish at the moment; so I'll probably be waiting for another shorting opportunity soon.

We'll see what happens.
  • #982
  • Jun 11, 2011 3:01am Jun 11, 2011 3:01am
For some people here


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wagn8Wrmzuc&feature=channel_video_title
With a good book and quality paper you can fine wipe your ass.
  • #983
  • Jun 14, 2011 6:26am Jun 14, 2011 6:26am
Quoting Darkstar
So unless or until a document can be found that describes that concept outline above (under any name), I'm going to continue to believe that I created it, from scratch, on my own, and taught it (directly or indirectly) to everyone who is currently engaged in the discipline.
hmm...fair enough:

Back in the day a FF member Mysticgenie talked about how he traded the COT report in one of his thought-provoking threads. Long story short he anticipated an extreme positionings in the report and then used technical picture to construct a possible scenario of where the orders would come in to "take out the air" of that COT extreme. One way of engaging in OF TRADING.


A FF member FTI (a (former)bank trader, if i remember correctly) used to talk about the "sitting ducks" pretty often which is a term for open stop orders and thus exploited the stop-hunting scenarios. So with that, the stop-hunting type of OF trading is covered (i'm not going into market makers/exploiting the order book scenarios).


If that's not enough, which it probably isn't, then one FF member BillyRayValentine is the closest you can get (as far as i'm familiar and excluding you of course) in terms of using different OF trading "strategies". He was actually the one who introduced to us (me) about the existence of IFR, option market - barriers, exotics, sentiment from options...When he gave an explanation he always looked at the market in multiple ways including order board, options, fundies and techs. In fact, he gave out great ideas of how to look at the market technically and how he, for example, drew horisontal lines which actually make sense even with "technically induced order flow" mindset. I hope that, since i mentioned IFR, options, fundies and techs in one paragraph, i don't have to go into details of how this all relates to exploiting future trader behaviour.


Then there's this member SKFX and the other guy i can't remember. Now, if you are confident that all these members i mentioned got the idea and knowledge of order flow trading FROM YOU then i can fully agree that you are the sole creator of it.


Quoting Darkstar
Order Flow Trading is a metagame analysis technique for predicting future trader behavior.
And how does that happen exactly ? In the COT example and BillyRayValentine example, to me, it's only obvious that they are anticipating the future trader behaviour.



Now, as far the explanation part, the learning part goes then this is something else. This is where i 100% agree that you have taken the most effort to teach the mindset of OF trading and are continuing to do it with your upcoming book. The ease of understanding and the simplicity of whatever you are saying is beyond anybody and i believe this happens in what...one out of a million...To me, this shows true intelligence.
  • #984
  • Jun 14, 2011 6:56am Jun 14, 2011 6:56am
Quoting Adal
I think a better analogy would be that Deutsche Bank is doing "DB Order Flow Trading (TM)", while you are doing "Darkstar Order Flow Trading (TM)". Both use most of the same building blocks (knowing or guessing current positions, future flows, stop locations, sentiment, liquidity gaps, ....) but arranged in a different and proprietary way.



Quoting Adal
Strictly by this definition fading a bubble is order-flow trading - you see that everybody is buying, is getting long and then you anticipate their hasty exit. Some of the trades in "Reminiscence of a ..." also fit this description. I'll venture saying that what most people here assume is order-flow trading existed before 2006, but not under this umbrella name.
  • #985
  • Jun 14, 2011 9:19am Jun 14, 2011 9:19am
Mysticgenie joined feb 2007

fti joined nov 2007 - He has been trading for ages and may well have came up with/learned some of these things back when I was still learning to read. Unfortunately, I can't decipher his posts, so I can’t say how close any of what he does or says fits into the subject... The one thing I do know is that if he did come up with any of this stuff, he didn’t say anything about it on FF until after he joined in ’07.

BillyRayValentine joined apr 2006 - but he was all about ea's and indicators until at least 2008 when he started the no-brainer trades thread.

skfx joined may 2006 - In http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=2160713#post2160713 (from august 2008) he outlines how he had been trading for the previous 5 years. He clearly states that he uses price action - no doubt learned from his year long stint posting in the james 16 thread where mqb11, who I personally taught order flow trading, is an important contributing member. He does use the term "flow" in the intro to that thread, but it is in the context of the daily trend.

I started the ohh sweet liquidity thread on april 30, 2006. That’s where I outline the order flow stop hunting system, showed how to exploit DNT options, and went into some of the logic behind the metagame analysis that made it all possible.

Unfortunately, as I outlined in the book intro, I deleted this thread (as well as several posts re the subject inside a few others) from the forum back in 2006. The good news is that I have a complete copy of that thread, which I will be posting to my blog in the next few days (need to strip all the FF formatting from the content).

Anyway, I think there is a good chance that all of those people have at some point posted something related to order flow trading at FF. But unless they were doing so under a different name, they did so AFTER the ohh sweet liquidity thread. Therefore, I am still standing by the assertion that I created the concept.

I am sure many of you are thinking that I'm talking out my ass about creating this stuff. However, I know in the deepest recesses of my soul that I did. I know this because in 2006 I read EVERY SINGLE THREAD that existed on FF. From the start of this forum (2004) until I wrote OHH Sweet Liquidity, nobody had even considered that market microstructure and/or order flow sequences might be useful in forex. Everyone assumed that because the OTC market had no central exchange or time and sales info, that those concepts were totally inapplicable. I changed that with my thread and everything that you will find, order flow trading related, can be traced back to that point.

So feel free to look long and look hard for something that will prove me wrong. I have no trouble with you trying because I KNOW you’re not going to find anything.
  • #986
  • Jun 14, 2011 10:06am Jun 14, 2011 10:06am
If they don't know, now they know.....
  • #987
  • Jun 14, 2011 10:34am Jun 14, 2011 10:34am
Relax bro, i'm not attacking you


Quoting Darkstar
The good news is that I have a complete copy of that thread, which I will be posting to my blog in the next few days (need to strip all the FF formatting from the content).
that's good to know.


Quoting Darkstar
I am sure many of you are thinking that I'm talking out my ass about creating this stuff.
Many ARE thinking that. And mainly because the enviousness that surrounds their minds when they read it.

Quoting Darkstar
However, I know in the deepest recesses of my soul that I did.
As much as i know you, that is already good enough for me.


Quoting Darkstar
I know this because in 2006 I read EVERY SINGLE THREAD that existed on FF.
wow, that's pretty crazy. And that should've been the FIRST argument to start with (although, yes, i understand that this wasn't your point to start actively proving your position in the first place).


Quoting Darkstar
So feel free to look long and look hard for something that will prove me wrong. I have no trouble with you trying because I KNOW you’re not going to find anything.
I wasn't looking/searching in the first place and neither am i going to waste my time on that BS. Those were merely the first names that came up to my head when i thought about it (and thus thought about my "career" here on FF ). As i said before, if you deeply believe in the creation of OF trading then it's already good enough for me. Period.
  • #988
  • Jun 14, 2011 12:35pm Jun 14, 2011 12:35pm
Or you could've said "sorry i was wrong".

Yeah i know i should not expect this on public forums.
.
  • #989
  • Jun 14, 2011 1:31pm Jun 14, 2011 1:31pm
Quoting nasir.khan
Or you could've said "sorry i was wrong".

Yeah i know i should not expect this on public forums.
.

was that directed at me ?

if so, then where exactly was i wrong ?
  • #990
  • Jun 14, 2011 1:48pm Jun 14, 2011 1:48pm
Quoting lumesh
Relax bro, i'm not attacking you
I know you werent brother. I was just trying to address the various names that came up and give a little background. Sorry if it came off as agressive.

The thing is, while it doesn't matter in the grand scheme who created what, I take a great deal of pride in the work that I have put into the subject.

Most people who come to forex these days just assume that this shit has always existed. Thats great because it means that those traders will have an easier time accepting the principles and turning them into profits.

Unfortunately, it also means that people who are using the shit I gve them to earn their living can laugh and "whatever" me when I suggest that if it weren't for me they would still be trying to EA their way to breakeven. That pisses me off because I DO take pride in what I've done and feel I deserve just a little credit.

Thats not to say that they owe me money, or praise. They don't. Everyone who has started down the orderflow path has had to put in their time and effort to create something that worked for them. And I'm truly happy for anyone who has achieved success.

All I'm asking is that people not effin laugh at me or call me a liar when I try to take credit for something I did in fact create.
  • #991
  • Jun 14, 2011 7:17pm Jun 14, 2011 7:17pm
Hi Darkstar,
I just want to say that after trying so many ways to become profitable trading forex without much success and now finding my way through order flow trading as describe by you, whether I finally make it or not won't ever change the fact that to me you are so way up on top of all forex factory posters. Many, many thanks for your time.
  • #992
  • Jun 15, 2011 12:17am Jun 15, 2011 12:17am
As far as the Darkstar did/didn't invent order flow trading goes, it's good to note that he basically shared his own proprietary trading information that he developed on his own, and, shared it freely on FF for anyone to learn from.

Darkstar took knowledge that he discovered through his own effort, and shared it with everyone, just to help other people become better traders.

I think anyone and everyone that has gotten anything from the order flow style threads on FF appreciates every post he has made to help others along similar paths.
  • #993
  • Jun 15, 2011 9:04pm Jun 15, 2011 9:04pm
Quoting RichFWebb
"Unexpected" drop in the Eur/USD
Perfect bearish trendline on the daily.
Upcoming rate hike and greek aid package..
Retail short to long 5:1 - the kicker!

Hello vacuum. Perfect time to BUY around 4450

What went wrong?

Am I looking at the OF / fundamentals wrong or was it just a Bad Entry, good outlook, try again monday?

The funny thing is I was short at 4550... 2 pip SL, If only I would have held on past 4450 instead of switching!
Quoting Marv
Correction on Monday is likely but my overall bias is still rather bearish at the moment; so I'll probably be waiting for another shorting opportunity soon.
Well there you go. Waiting for that shorting opportunity paid off. I hope you didn't hold on too much to your long bias there Rich.

Usually I would establish a bias when I have enough good reasons to and then use orderflow only when waiting for the trade opportunity i.e. to gauge when to enter/exit. If I don't have a clear enough bias, I would basically watch the orderflow for scalping opportunities (raised by short term inefficiencies).
  • #994
  • Jun 15, 2011 9:19pm Jun 15, 2011 9:19pm
Quoting Darkstar
Thats not to say that they owe me money, or praise.
How about acknowledgment and a thank you

It's not every day you get a paradigm shift in an arena that can give you money if you get it right (for free nonetheless)

Thanks man, and props
  • #995
  • Jun 20, 2011 5:02am Jun 20, 2011 5:02am
Actually trendlines and orderflow if we talk supply/demand stuff is very connected. Even to Fib i suspect.
  • #996
  • Jun 20, 2011 5:18am Jun 20, 2011 5:18am
Quoting johs
Actually trendlines and orderflow if we talk supply/demand stuff is very connected. Even to Fib i suspect.
Yupp, cause its all the same thing we are talking about no matter what we are saying, one person doesnt trade one price while another trades his own, we trade the same price!
My signature is: "Classified".
  • #997
  • Jun 21, 2011 12:13pm Jun 21, 2011 12:13pm
Hi all

well, what a thread Steve

I am on pg. 22 and tbh its a real eye-opener. I am a J16 pupil originally but my trading has improved lately due to Sam Seidan's Demand and Supply and I think this OF mindset can bring me to the next level.

I am also a fan of Darkstars OF.

Ok, I am going over Steve's charts from [pg.1 [/b]and s/thing struck me (it maybe nothing), on the Euro - Dollar we have the boxed consolidation at the top, price breaks with previous support now new resistance. Then we have a break of this minor PPZ with the spike triggering the buys.

2 things here: 1)the gap between the boxed consolidation and the spike is very conspicuous - it doesnt look right 2) I believe the spike was a DEALER manouvre. The DEALER can see the big boys have a huge sell order but before they release on to the market they let the UNINFORMED traders buy the market. Furthermore, this spike takes out the shorts who had tight SLs. This leaves 2 participants - the DEALER and THE BIG FISH . My take on Steve's SPEED idea is that OF traders act once they see who is left in the market. They need to see the market shake out the UNINFOMRED traders as they know the trade

1. IS HIGH PROBABILITY (COAT TAILLING)
2. THE MOVE HAS ENOUGH MONEY ON BOARD FOR IT BE SUBSTANTIAL

Am I on the right track?
  • #998
  • Jun 24, 2011 2:55am Jun 24, 2011 2:55am
I see I am speaking to myself but thats good b/cuz Ill win all the arguments


ok, so got to page 48 of the thread and tbh my head began to melt - too much info , all of which needs to be investigated to see if I can use it in my forex weaponry

took a break last night , had a beer and contemplated whether OF is definable and any use to me

trained this morning, took the wee man to nursery and began repeating the info from the thread whilst driving

came home and did a diagram of what I think OF is. the main focus was what the thread began with

who is in the market? why? where?
OF is what you cant see (but can be learnt)
Institutional orders are broken up
Institutions take profits and Stop hunt the greedy and fearful retail herd particularly scalpers / daytraders

I conclude that:
The people who see Institutional orders dont need charts and so know in advance where S/R is
The retail crowd do b/cuz they cant see the big orders
Dont underestimate the Dealer

but

Informed Retail traders can see the signals / foot prints left behind from the informed traders if they are research, are patient and have a strategy.

So, 20 more pages to go and tbh quite alot of research

Happy trading folks

Anthony

just had another 'a ha' moment - Steve said that its what is in the WHITE SPACE which is where we should be looking - I think I know what this means
  • #999
  • Jun 24, 2011 4:31am Jun 24, 2011 4:31am
neither the live or demo account has it, bummer
  • #1,000
  • Jun 24, 2011 6:25am Jun 24, 2011 6:25am
thanks eurotrash!
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