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Silent Service Method

  • #12,521
  • Jun 12, 2011 11:13pm Jun 12, 2011 11:13pm
Nzd got stopped out for a small loss. Right pair, right direction, wrong time.
  • #12,522
  • Jun 13, 2011 12:42am Jun 13, 2011 12:42am
Quoting clockwork71
As long as you are aware that the 5 central banks are waiting below, you will be fine I guess. I personally am ignoring the Yen at the moment.
You mean they won't allow usdjpy to fall much below 80?

One thing that strikes me as unusual about the yen being strong anyway is the price of oil rising, you'd think that would weaken it a bit.
  • #12,523
  • Jun 13, 2011 12:46am Jun 13, 2011 12:46am
Quoting Hugh Briss
You mean they won't allow usdjpy to fall much below 80?

One thing that strikes me as unusual about the yen being strong anyway is the price of oil rising, you'd think that would weaken it a bit.
Think we might see a weaker Yen in coming days/weeks.

http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=298330
  • #12,524
  • Jun 13, 2011 8:17am Jun 13, 2011 8:17am
I am not saying that USD/JPY can't fall, I am just saying that no less than 5 central banks expressed their displeasure at it being much lower than where it is now. Because of that, I would rather pass on it is all.

It could be at 56 tomorrow - you never know, but I can only note that intervention happened in the same area, and because of that - I'd rather trade a different pair. That's all.
  • #12,525
  • Jun 13, 2011 12:50pm Jun 13, 2011 12:50pm
Quoting clockwork71
I am not saying that USD/JPY can't fall, I am just saying that no less than 5 central banks expressed their displeasure at it being much lower than where it is now. Because of that, I would rather pass on it is all.

It could be at 56 tomorrow - you never know, but I can only note that intervention happened in the same area, and because of that - I'd rather trade a different pair. That's all.
I'm with you Chris - I just don't understand fundi's - Japan just had an earthquake and now a nuclear meltdown threatens to make Japan uninhabitable - half their industry is wiped out - machine orders in Apr fell 3.3% when they were expected to rise 2.2% and that was before the quake....And the yen goes up against everything - beats me.
  • #12,526
  • Edited 10:01pm Jun 13, 2011 9:18pm | Edited 10:01pm
In other fundamentals noise/news, the Chinese release numbers that show they are healthy, but not higher in inflationary pressures that thought of. This is good for the AUD as Oz is China's general store. Because of this, I have an interest in owning the AUD now as the fundie traders are less worried about the Chinese raising rates and slowing down their economy. (It should be noted that there are still rake hikes expectations, but not as many as were worried about previously....)

Add to that the Bank of Japan is expected to add to their easing operations, the obvious trade might be to go long AUD/JPY, which is sitting just above support in the 85 mark.

Because of this, I went ahead and put a small long on.....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audjpy.png Size: 85 KB
  • #12,527
  • Jun 14, 2011 8:07am Jun 14, 2011 8:07am
Went ahead and took profit. When you look at the chart - choppy conditions seem to be ahead......I could have been wrong by getting out, but I don't hang onto trades that result from "pops" for long in general.
  • #12,528
  • Jun 14, 2011 9:28am Jun 14, 2011 9:28am
I am sure that there are plenty of people out there buying the EUR/CHF as it pops. Perhaps they are also buying the GBP/CHF as it has broken a minor resistance area. But let me ask you this:

"What exactly are you hoping to accomplish?"

I remember a time where I would have jumped on the bandwagon, and sold the CHF. The markets are bouncing, and everything is great again. Why? Because the Chinese are probably not going to be raising their interest rates in an aggressive manner. Uh.....sorry? What does that have to do with Europe's issues, and the flow of capital across the Swiss border from Germany? Not much if you are smart. We need to look at the big picture before we jump into the market.

The whole thing to look at is this: Does the chart in EUR/CHF go from the upper right to the lower left? If so - and it does - we are in a downtrend. If you are looking for an opportunity to sell, it is presenting itself. All you have to do is be patient, and let it present itself. If you step back, the market will often tell you what it wants to do - if you are willing to listen.
  • #12,529
  • Jun 14, 2011 6:28pm Jun 14, 2011 6:28pm
That Aussie vs the Yen looks like the bomb man
  • #12,530
  • Jun 14, 2011 11:51pm Jun 14, 2011 11:51pm
Quoting clockwork71
- we are in a downtrend. If you are looking for an opportunity to sell, it is presenting itself. All you have to do is be patient, and let it present itself. If you step back, the market will often tell you what it wants to do - if you are willing to listen.
Agreed, 0.8550ish....nice area to sell if you can get good RRR with possible trouble @ 0.8350ish.....possible trouble i say......

I am personally weary of some eventual CHF weakness.....eventually.....The Futures positioning in CHF suggests there are historically excessive longs being held (by funds etc) that will have to be covered one day.....possibly a major reversal.....again.....until this happens.....SELL SELL SELL....

In saying that i do have a small speccy long CAD/CHF position open.....
  • #12,531
  • Jun 15, 2011 1:32am Jun 15, 2011 1:32am
What do you think of this AUDUSD flag? If the inside bar develops I might be interested in this trade, especially since it coincides with my fundamental view on these currencies.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd1.jpg Size: 129 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd2.jpg Size: 135 KB
The nail that sticks out gets hammered back in
  • #12,532
  • Jun 15, 2011 5:54am Jun 15, 2011 5:54am
Quoting Noloqy
What do you think of this AUDUSD flag? If the inside bar develops I might be interested in this trade, especially since it coincides with my fundamental view on these currencies.
I think the flag looks good, but if it were up to me I'd be waiting for price to hold above 1.075'ish and show Support there, that would show confirmation on the flag for me
  • #12,533
  • Jun 15, 2011 7:13am Jun 15, 2011 7:13am
Quoting Noloqy
What do you think of this AUDUSD flag? If the inside bar develops I might be interested in this trade, especially since it coincides with my fundamental view on these currencies.
I think this: If it doesn't break to the upside soon, and above that line - it's not a flag anymore. It is getting kind of long. However, a break above that top line would signal a buy anyway - so it's all down to that line......it only affects the projected target is all.
  • #12,534
  • Jun 15, 2011 9:38am Jun 15, 2011 9:38am
Looks like the EUR/CHF is ready to go lower yet again. THIS IS WHY YOU PAY ATTENTION TO TRENDS, AND FORGET ABOUT PICKING THE BOTTOM OF A MARKET!!!!!
  • #12,535
  • Jun 15, 2011 12:38pm Jun 15, 2011 12:38pm
Put up a quick video on the blog....
  • #12,536
  • Jun 15, 2011 1:43pm Jun 15, 2011 1:43pm
Quoting clockwork71
Put up a quick video on the blog....
Hello bro
How r u?It's been a while but sometime checking ur great thread and very good as always

Hope u enjoy e/u

A lot of talks about it and I'm interested to know ur view if u could

For me Still my target not hit and there is much room to down but the question where u think it goes mostly
Thx
  • #12,537
  • Jun 15, 2011 1:47pm Jun 15, 2011 1:47pm
Quoting clockwork71
Looks like the EUR/CHF is ready to go lower yet again. THIS IS WHY YOU PAY ATTENTION TO TRENDS, AND FORGET ABOUT PICKING THE BOTTOM OF A MARKET!!!!!
Same comment we all says to all newbie but no body listen even me "when i start trading But the real deal is:

How fast you can learn this
Since then the trend is my best friend
  • #12,538
  • Jun 15, 2011 2:39pm Jun 15, 2011 2:39pm
Quoting egkid
Hello bro
How r u?It's been a while but sometime checking ur great thread and very good as always

Hope u enjoy e/u

A lot of talks about it and I'm interested to know ur view if u could

For me Still my target not hit and there is much room to down but the question where u think it goes mostly
Thx
Eg, know we chatted in the euro thread for a bit... what are you looking for on euro as far as total downside?

I'm currently looking for 408x to 404x before we get a nice little bounce.
  • #12,539
  • Jun 15, 2011 9:59pm Jun 15, 2011 9:59pm
Quoting egkid
Hello bro
How r u?It's been a while but sometime checking ur great thread and very good as always

Hope u enjoy e/u

A lot of talks about it and I'm interested to know ur view if u could

For me Still my target not hit and there is much room to down but the question where u think it goes mostly
Thx
I believe that the EUR/USD pair is going down over time. In fact, I think sooner or later - the EU itself is going to have to be reconfigured. Think of it this way: If you live in Germany, why would you want to bail out people in Greece, Portugal, Italy, etc? There simply is too large of a divide between the north and the south. (Can you imagine when this happens - there would be an exodus of Italian players suddenly heading towards places like Germany and Holland to play for their clubs. The Eredivisie might be more than a battle between Feyenoord, Ajax, and PSV.)

Anyway - onto currency trading. I think that this pair will be very difficult to trade. There will be bailouts, and relief rallies. Of course, there will be more issues, and every one will cause massive meltdowns. Eventually, it's going to fall apart. But this isn't going to happen that soon.

However, I have been trading the Euro.....but shorting against the Franc has been more my speed. Because the US is in a huge mess as well......

As a side note, did you know that the ECB holds over 74 Billion in Greek debt? Guess how much they hold in cash reserves? Turns out it's only 10 Billion! Hmmm......

Good to say you mate.

Chris
  • #12,540
  • Jun 15, 2011 10:00pm Jun 15, 2011 10:00pm
Quoting Venice
Eg, know we chatted in the euro thread for a bit... what are you looking for on euro as far as total downside?

I'm currently looking for 408x to 404x before we get a nice little bounce.

I think we see 1.40 for what it is worth. If see see lower than that - look out below!
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