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  • #21,041
  • Jun 13, 2011 2:17pm Jun 13, 2011 2:17pm
Quoting gigitranza
jasus, that bar marked as NS, isn't that a test bar ?
They're essentially the same thing, so call it what you will. Both are narrow spread down bars. The only real difference is a test closes on the high and a No Supply in the middle.
  • #21,042
  • Jun 13, 2011 2:28pm Jun 13, 2011 2:28pm
Quoting Jasus
I went long on EU but closed too early and had a small loss. I usually don't know when to exit the market, was my exit fine here?
Firstly, that trend channel doesn't look very relevant at all, where did you draw that from?

After that two bar reversal before the test, it looks like a good place to go long. The test is confirmed with the next bar up. I don't think a great deal of supply entered where you said it did. But that's from looking at my own volume reads. I'm in work at the moment so i'll post a chart later.

The bar you have marked wide spread down isn't really that wide if you look at a lot of the bars before hand. I'd say it's a medium spread personally and it's immediately reversed on the following bar.

The bar three bars after your exit is where the real supply enters and the market moves down from this.

Hope this helps a bit, generally it was a bit of a pain to trade EU today. At least i thought so. I'm going to try post a chart later with some analysis, more for my own peace of mind than anything!
  • #21,043
  • Jun 13, 2011 2:39pm Jun 13, 2011 2:39pm
Quoting Jasus
I went long on EU but closed too early and had a small loss. I usually don't know when to exit the market, was my exit fine here?
Hey Jasus, I took the exact same trade and got stopped out because my stop was at the low of that ns/ test bar.

Heres a question for everyone. Who places their stops behind their entry bar (test/ns/nd) and who prefers to place their stops behind the last swing? Im finding im getting stopped out alot lately because my stops are behind the test bars rather than the swings. Me no likey.
  • #21,044
  • Jun 13, 2011 2:58pm Jun 13, 2011 2:58pm
Quoting mrscooting
How is this a clear ND when volume is not less than the previous two bars or did I read his chart wrong...
If I understand is right, when trading 12h chart, one must compare the LO/NY bars to the LO/NY bars and the NY/asia bars to the NY/aisa bars....

So as you can see this is the shortest LO/NY bar in the chart (beside the 30/5 bar which was a holiday in engalnd and usa)

Correct ?
  • #21,045
  • Jun 13, 2011 3:03pm Jun 13, 2011 3:03pm
  •  s7c
  • | Joined Mar 2011 | Status: try and fail but don't fail to try | 289 Posts
Quoting KinsaleForex
generally it was a bit of a pain to trade EU today. At least i thought so. I'm going to try post a chart later with some analysis, more for my own peace of mind than anything!
agree, I started the day looking to go short in harmony with 4h trend but I didn't get the chance and the trend on 1h reversed confirming the strength from the left. So for me it was a day with 0 trades, maybe if I was present after London closed when the lack of supply became obvious I would have entered long with a small position...
  • #21,046
  • Jun 13, 2011 3:05pm Jun 13, 2011 3:05pm
Quoting s7c
agree, I started the day looking to go short in harmony with 4h trend but I didn't get the chance and the trend on 1h reversed confirming the strength from the left. So for me it was a day with 0 trades, maybe if I was present after London closed when the lack of supply became obvious I would have entered long with a small position...
No trades shows you had good discipline.
  • #21,047
  • Jun 13, 2011 3:16pm Jun 13, 2011 3:16pm
Quoting KinsaleForex
Firstly, that trend channel doesn't look very relevant at all, where did you draw that from?

After that two bar reversal before the test, it looks like a good place to go long. The test is confirmed with the next bar up. I don't think a great deal of supply entered where you said it did. But that's from looking at my own volume reads. I'm in work at the moment so i'll post a chart later.

The bar you have marked wide spread down isn't really that wide if you look at a lot of the bars before hand. I'd say it's a medium spread personally...
From my volume feed it looks like a lot of supply entered on that bar, but it's an up bar after a test and with strength on the background it's unlikely that SM wouldn't absorb that supply. My exit was too early I guess...

But if you were in that position where would you exit? When that bar wide spread up bar with very high volume (3 bars after I exited) appeared would you exit right away? Looking forward to see that chart

Quote
Hey Jasus, I took the exact same trade and got stopped out because my stop was at the low of that ns/ test bar.

Heres a question for everyone. Who places their stops behind their entry bar (test/ns/nd) and who prefers to place their stops behind the last swing? Im finding im getting stopped out alot lately because my stops are behind the test bars rather than the swings. Me no likey.

If I remember right Sebastian said to put stops on 2 or 3 bars before, if the distance is ok. For example if there is a wide spread up bar 2 bars before I go long, I'll put the SL below that wide spread up bar. But I never put just below the test, I think that's too risky
  • #21,048
  • Jun 13, 2011 3:54pm Jun 13, 2011 3:54pm
Here is a chart extremely similar to the one Intel commented on. The bar on the vertical blue line worried me, but I quickly "got a grip" on myself and decided to wait to see what happens at the bottom the 2BR, which is also the close of the highest volume 5m bar of the day.

I don't like the time of day, and honestly im thinkin about just closing it and watching what asia does. On the other hand, each position is only one micro lot, and I dont think asia will push through all that selling. So it may be worth the risk. On the other other hand, I am a newb and do not yet have a good grasp on how one session reacts to the other.

Feel free to scold me.
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  • #21,049
  • Jun 13, 2011 4:29pm Jun 13, 2011 4:29pm
Quoting PipPipPip
I do not usually trade this pair, but couldn't resist. Obvious signal and great AUD news. heading to 1.1 possibly again.
sorry i've been away from ff for awhile, been on my screens more lately.

took a miniature buy @ 1.0562 area and didn't get a chance to post here. i still see 1.11-1.14 in july to mid july. dollar is still weak. still major strength in the background.

best regards and green pips to y'all.

pippippip
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  • #21,050
  • Jun 13, 2011 4:30pm Jun 13, 2011 4:30pm
Quoting slaphappy
Here is a chart extremely similar to the one Intel commented on. The bar on the vertical blue line worried me, but I quickly "got a grip" on myself and decided to wait to see what happens at the bottom the 2BR, which is also the close of the highest volume 5m bar of the day.

I don't like the time of day, and honestly im thinkin about just closing it and watching what asia does. On the other hand, each position is only one micro lot, and I dont think asia will push through all that selling. So it may be worth the risk. On the other other...
I wouldn't enter because of the time, and even so in my opinion EU is not so weak... EU is coming from a saucer pattern, which shows accumulation. To turn this around I think there would have to be more selling, this might just be a pause in the market. I'd have to see more weakness and a lower high before shorting.

I'd also like to know how one session reacts to another
  • #21,051
  • Jun 13, 2011 4:33pm Jun 13, 2011 4:33pm
Quoting PipPipPip
sorry i've been away from ff for awhile, been on my screens more lately.

took a miniature buy @ 1.0562 area and didn't get a chance to post here. i still see 1.11-1.14 in july to mid july. dollar is still weak. still major strength in the background.

best regards and green pips to y'all.

pippippip
Can you post charts of what led you to trade it rather than your profits/losses please? It's more educative to us all
  • #21,052
  • Jun 13, 2011 4:53pm Jun 13, 2011 4:53pm
Quoting NaughtyPip
Hey Jasus, I took the exact same trade and got stopped out because my stop was at the low of that ns/ test bar.

Heres a question for everyone. Who places their stops behind their entry bar (test/ns/nd) and who prefers to place their stops behind the last swing? Im finding im getting stopped out alot lately because my stops are behind the test bars rather than the swings. Me no likey.
I never place it below the test, it's just far too close for me, for the very reason outlined above. It's normally the swing low/high. Even then it's often not safe
  • #21,053
  • Jun 13, 2011 5:13pm Jun 13, 2011 5:13pm
Quoting SimpleDev
/agree

Is it just me or has cable and dx been easier to read than euro as of late?
Ya cable and fx have been a lot easier to read than euro.
Number #1 in PnL and Pips on Dukascopy Trader Contest since 2011
  • #21,054
  • Jun 13, 2011 5:27pm Jun 13, 2011 5:27pm
Quoting Jasus
From my volume feed it looks like a lot of supply entered on that bar, but it's an up bar after a test and with strength on the background it's unlikely that SM wouldn't absorb that supply. My exit was too early I guess...

But if you were in that position where would you exit? When that bar wide spread up bar with very high volume (3 bars after I exited) appeared would you exit right away? Looking forward to see that chart
Put these charts together with what jumps out at me. I'd welcome some criticism and general discussion if people agree / don't agree. I ain't saying they're perfectly right hence me actually doing this in the first place.

If i were in that position I probably would've hit my target as I normally aim for 1:1 ratio. If i was aiming for more I probably would've got stopped out or closed for a loss because i'm a sucker for hope

That aside, i personally wouldn't have taken the trade in the first place because i'm trying to stick to using triggers.
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  • #21,055
  • Jun 13, 2011 6:14pm Jun 13, 2011 6:14pm
Nice trade: I did all the right things. I planned my trade and traded my plan. When the market proved my right, I sat tight.

I wished I would have gotten out at the Buying Climax. Then I remembered that I do not try and get in at the top or bottom, so I should not be worried about getting out at them either.

The trend is not just my friend, it's my lover.

P.S. My stop was just below the No Supply.
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Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #21,056
  • Jun 13, 2011 7:07pm Jun 13, 2011 7:07pm
Quoting HiddenGap
Nice trade: I did all the right things. I planned my trade and traded my plan. When the market proved my right, I sat tight.

I wished I would have gotten out at the Buying Climax. Then I remembered that I do not try and get in at the top or bottom, so I should not be worried about getting out at them either.

The trend is not just my friend, it's my lover.

P.S. My stop was just below the No Supply.
Great post as usual HG. I thoroughly enjoy your analysis of the day's ES progress. Helps me tremendously if I miss anything.

I believe your chart is 3min. I have become a huge fan of using 4min for spot and futures, but will have a 2min and 3min usually up as well. I find it depends on the day, which one will provide better view of potential volume increases. I found stopping and upthrust volume much better read/displayed via a 4min chart today.
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  • #21,057
  • Jun 13, 2011 9:16pm Jun 13, 2011 9:16pm
Wow...the similarities with the last trade I posted just dont stop. Again...I exited before the big move. I guess I should be happy I didnt get stopped out though. I saw that bit of demand come in and I guess that move up that almost stopped me out had me on edge.


Its just so frustrating. If ya'll only knew how many times I haven't pulled the trigger only to see it take off where I thought it was gonna go. And how many times I was in the trade and got out for some reason or another only to see it do exactly what I thought it would.

Ive had many losing trades which I have learned from, but most of those could be offset by the ones I let get away. Its like I'm so focused on not losing that I cant win, which makes me just lose a little bit at a time and never get the winners that I need to balance it out. I have seen I have the ability to pick winners on a decently consistent basis, I am just not in them lol.

ok.../rant off

Sorry I know that isnt VSA related, but you guys are the only ones I pay any attention to on here. No need to comment if ya dont want.
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  • #21,058
  • Jun 13, 2011 9:53pm Jun 13, 2011 9:53pm
Quoting NaughtyPip
Hey Jasus, I took the exact same trade and got stopped out because my stop was at the low of that ns/ test bar.

Heres a question for everyone. Who places their stops behind their entry bar (test/ns/nd) and who prefers to place their stops behind the last swing? Im finding im getting stopped out alot lately because my stops are behind the test bars rather than the swings. Me no likey.
Place behind the last swing means more margin there, only if the stop loss place there is still within your pip limits.

I prefer to place at Test bar or last swing.

Best place is to place at (ns/nd), only if it is a really true ns/nd.
The real nd/ns really does not have price pass those points.
For me it is too tight to put at ns/nd as stop loss.
If you want a tight stop loss, then you need to put at the nd/ns.
  • #21,059
  • Jun 13, 2011 9:57pm Jun 13, 2011 9:57pm
Quoting Jasus
I went long on EU but closed too early and had a small loss. I usually don't know when to exit the market, was my exit fine here?
Your exit is fine as long as it is within your stop loss parameter and that you wanted a tight stop loss.
If you put it a bit lower you may still have got it stop out by the 8:30 bar anyway.

In your EU chart, after your exit, if you still watching the chart at 8:30 was a nice Test bar, then 9:30 NS, and you could re-enter Long after 9:30 NS.
  • #21,060
  • Jun 13, 2011 10:49pm Jun 13, 2011 10:49pm
Quoting Jasus
Can you post charts of what led you to trade it rather than your profits/losses please? It's more educative to us all
There were two or more hidden demands and a clear entry of no supply (testing on trigger 2). I took the trade off trigger 1, and there were two more possible trades off trigger 2. Trigger 2 was my signal of holding the position. The other line is from the daily.

Notice that trigger 1 has massive volume behind it. Trigger two opens one bar behind trigger 1. This would be a low risk entry off the no supply, and the shake out bar afterwards.
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