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Trading Major Lines

  • #1,261
  • Jun 13, 2011 12:29pm Jun 13, 2011 12:29pm
Looks like possible reverse H and S.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy.gif Size: 47 KB
  • #1,262
  • Jun 13, 2011 12:41pm Jun 13, 2011 12:41pm
Quoting kpt1956
Looks like possible reverse H and S.
I think you are too focused on the 5 min chart. Take a step back and look at the big picture.
Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
  • #1,263
  • Jun 13, 2011 12:52pm Jun 13, 2011 12:52pm
Looks like the formation may signal ride back up.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,264
  • Jun 13, 2011 12:57pm Jun 13, 2011 12:57pm
For the nubies , rule of thumb is distance is 2x from the head to the shoulders that the price will run after formation is made.
  • #1,265
  • Jun 13, 2011 1:03pm Jun 13, 2011 1:03pm
Zuch , looks like same pattern at 4hr timeframe.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,266
  • Jun 13, 2011 1:26pm Jun 13, 2011 1:26pm
Quoting kpt1956
Zuch , looks like same pattern at 4hr timeframe.
Ehh...H&S is very hard to trade for me b/c it is very subjective to whoever is looking at them. Perhaps it works for you but what I've learned through this thread is that simple candlestick patterns on round numbers are the most effective indicators just because of their simplicity. There is no debating where 1.5, 1.4, 1.3, etc is. I like to use 100 pip levels in addition to 1000 pip levels on weekly chart. By all means if H&S works for you keep on using it but I just don't see it well.
Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
  • #1,267
  • Jun 13, 2011 8:44pm Jun 13, 2011 8:44pm
GU at 61.8. Gonna make some decision here
Any suggestion?

http://i31.photobucket.com/albums/c3...k/Forex/gu.jpg
  • #1,268
  • Jun 14, 2011 3:21am Jun 14, 2011 3:21am
Quoting zusch
... what I've learned through this thread is that simple candlestick patterns on round numbers are the most effective indicators just because of their simplicity. There is no debating where 1.5, 1.4, 1.3, etc is. I like to use 100 pip levels in addition to 1000 pip levels on weekly chart.
Hello Zusch,
I’m getting philosophical about trades I enter around ‘00s which, I hope, is a healthy state to get to. I used to think I had to get in at ’00. As Graeme says, his “biggest helper” when considering entries at any point is whether price is coming up or coming down from ’00, and if we enter in the right direction at ’00 we know that price might well proceed to the next ’00.
I place price behaviour at ‘00s into roughly 5 types:
a) It charges straight through and doesn’t look back
b) It bounces and departs in the direction it came from
c) It bounces and then moves through
d) It moves through and returns for a touch before proceeding on its way
e) It hangs around for a long time after your entry, pushing through in both directions, and then it’s 50/50 as to whether you’ll have a successful trade.
I’ve seen this behaviour on 15m to H4 depending on the pace of the market that day/hour.
Either early in Nomask’s thread or in Graeme’s thread, some guy said that he only (he said “and I mean only”) trades on support turning to resistance or vice versa, as in (d) above. Perhaps I’m stressing myself by wanting to be on as many winning trades as possible, but I couldn’t limit myself to a strategy such as his where there will be relatively fewer opportunities.
I tend to expect some price action at ’00. (I used to grieve when (a) happens.) I’ve concluded that if there’s recognisable price action at ‘00, I’ll trade accordingly, but if there isn’t, I’ll catch the tide later when there’s price action beyond ’00.
I’m intrigued by your phrase “simple candlestick patterns on round numbers are the most effective indicators just because of their simplicity.” Would you mind expanding on that please? Is your perspective anywhere near mine?
Thanks,
Kan
Thanks for your help, warmth and straight talking Heather.
  • #1,269
  • Jun 14, 2011 6:14am Jun 14, 2011 6:14am
I took a short on aj..I already posted my weekly hindsight(short) about this pair before.
charts attached
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,270
  • Jun 14, 2011 6:51am Jun 14, 2011 6:51am
Quoting Kanderpro
I’m intrigued by your phrase “simple candlestick patterns on round numbers are the most effective indicators just because of their simplicity.” Would you mind expanding on that please? Is your perspective anywhere near mine?
Thanks,
Kan
I think we are on the same page. I used to look for support and resistance on daily charts, but I had no real consistent way of identifying them. Round numbers however are very simple to define. Candlestick patterns (such as pinbars/engulfing patterns/3 bar reversal) are a little more subjective but much more easy to define than head and shoulders for example. Pinbars in my opinion are the best candlestick pattern. Here are the links to basic pinbar strategy:
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...7&d=1236359305
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...chmentid=43134

From your list of possibilities I like to trade scenarios B and D. I am trying to work in scenario E as moves out of tight ranges usually are the fastest moves. So using our weekly hindsight I take trades off of candlestick patterns on these round numbers. I cannot stress how important it is that your weekly chart is telling you what direction the trend is. If you are simply trading 4 hour pinbars on 100 pip levels both ways you will get a lot of signals and it will more than likely cost you a lot of money. Fewer, higher quality trades is the goal. This has all been said before by Nomask and others in this thread and if you haven't read through the entire thread yet I strongly recommend it just so you don't miss anything.

I certainly hope this post helped!
Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
  • #1,271
  • Jun 14, 2011 8:07am Jun 14, 2011 8:07am
Zusch, I certainly understand your and others point of view about H & S patterns and other formations for that matter. Be honest with you I try not to rely to heavily on them, but when I see them I take note and try to understand their behavior especially if I see them in the lower 5 min and upper 4hr timeframes as I saw the other day on usdjpy. Yesterday didn't end up forming which was the case , but I like to point it out just for feedback be it positive or negative. I do agree with the previous poster that the major levels while important, it might be good to consider the direction price is coming into it to evaluate whether it is going to be a correction back to a previous major level or break through to a new major level. I look at the proximity of the price to the mid levels also. I also agree with you about interpreting candles, be it individual or formations. Like everthing we do here in this thread or other threads I know you 'll have to agree that as traders we have to weigh objectivity ( Price Action confirmations ) with subjectivity ( intuition and experience ). That's why trading is the most difficult profession to be in. I do get carried away with posting from time to time, so it doesn't hurt my feelings for anyone to tell me: ( " Hey, what's all the excitement about ! )
  • #1,272
  • Jun 15, 2011 6:08am Jun 15, 2011 6:08am
hello everyone..
Last night when I was sleeping and probably dreaming too,some good setups occured in both eu and ej.
attached is the example of ej.
Remember you can always learn from the trades you've missed as well as the ones you took.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,273
  • Jun 15, 2011 6:23am Jun 15, 2011 6:23am
Hallo Nomask, great strategy! I have read and understand the strategy; problem is that I am not so patience as you are. I but I think that the strategy is a very good tool that can predict the trend so I want to use it as a good indictor to further trend development. I want to ask of you know any 1 that use your strategy simpler to my idea?

Happy trading
@Materyb
  • #1,274
  • Jun 15, 2011 7:51am Jun 15, 2011 7:51am
Quoting nomask
hello everyone..
Last night when I was sleeping and probably dreaming too,some good setups occured in both eu and ej.
attached is the example of ej.
Remember you can always learn from the trades you've missed as well as the ones you took.
Hi, Nomask! I taked long by UJ in according your method. But 2 time was unsuccessfull (loosed about 30 pp). Last long still alive and BE.
By the way, I think it's too much risky to sell crosses EJ and GJ when growing up UJ. What do you think?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,275
  • Jun 15, 2011 9:29am Jun 15, 2011 9:29am
Nomask,
My perception on EU was that we were long biased after that pinbar on W1 as per method.
Yes, last week was bearish, but not even engulfing. Or what is your perception?

Great setup by tbut he way. A couple of this a week is what I need according to my style. Not 1000 pips, but 100+ each. Although will aim for 1000 on some trades as kind of "yoga" exercise, while building equity on the other hand, LOL.

Cheers



Quoting nomask
hello everyone..
Last night when I was sleeping and probably dreaming too,some good setups occured in both eu and ej.
attached is the example of ej.
Remember you can always learn from the trades you've missed as well as the ones you took.
  • #1,276
  • Jun 15, 2011 2:52pm Jun 15, 2011 2:52pm
Hi all,
Its been awhile since I posted here been very busy and the room when I started only a hand full of members now.. WOW it has grown which is great. Its better late then never but EU finally dropped like brick and now my position is riding at breakeven. I will add later. Will try to be present more. Have good day
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Empower Your Mind
  • #1,277
  • Jun 15, 2011 5:23pm Jun 15, 2011 5:23pm
Same question as to Nomask.... although was a great entry, why short hindsight if long term handsight is "long"?

On what basis you determined short entry? Not even previous short W1 was engulfing its predecesor long candle.

Thanks a lot guys... please help me clear this out



Quoting vqtrader
Hi all,
Its been awhile since I posted here been very busy and the room when I started only a hand full of members now.. WOW it has grown which is great. Its better late then never but EU finally dropped like brick and now my position is riding at breakeven. I will add later. Will try to be present more. Have good day
  • #1,278
  • Edited 8:01pm Jun 15, 2011 7:48pm | Edited 8:01pm
Cfabian
Here is how I see it. Last week or two I had a bias long noted by the price bounce off the previous resistance(white line and arrows). Another indication was price also bounce off of the 4000 level broke through 4500 headed north but failed and closed below 4500 , so that was why I had a short hindsight. The close below 4500 gave me the short hindsight and I waited according to the method and got in. Yes engulfing are my no brainer entry but they will not always line up as you want them too. It was close enough for me. (I use other analysis also). Use discretion if it looks good get in. According to my eagle eye skills we might be good down to 1.3050 so you my have time. HERE IS THE BEAUTY OF THIS METHOD. We should not care which way the market is going if it tells us short or long we go. Same for price target(we have none) . I have target because I am managing other folks hard earn cashola, but in my account I want all the market has to offer. We either breakeven or let it run until 1000 pip are hit or it tells us its turning around. Hope this helps Nomask may explian it better.

Summary: My long died at breakeven the candle closed below 4500 so I went short.
Quoting cfabian
Same question as to Nomask.... although was a great entry, why short hindsight if long term handsight is "long"?

On what basis you determined short entry? Not even previous short W1 was engulfing its predecesor long candle.

Thanks a lot guys... please help me clear this out
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Empower Your Mind
  • #1,279
  • Jun 16, 2011 1:38am Jun 16, 2011 1:38am
Guys, on EU, don't forget few things to consider:
1. Prev. month was bearish (not engulfing, but still), low is much lower the open of month before.
2. Prev. week was bearish (not engulfing, but still).
3. Mon and Tue PA on H1 and H4 - very lazy, candles were looking more like a retracement to the main trend, not like a full trend full bodied candles.
4. Long positions opened were dying on BE pretty much this month.

Conclusion => bears getting more power this month, and few bullish weeks were just an upper wick on monthly candle, which now looking bearish.
  • #1,280
  • Jun 16, 2011 2:27am Jun 16, 2011 2:27am
I guess I had a more intuitive interpretation: even if the word is that 1.5 will be attained during this year, I think the big boys still want to cash in with orders at the 1.4 level before having price fly up again. That's why I read the 1.45 pinbar as a major resistence area that is now sending PA down to 1.4 before it corrects. I entered short and am currently at +233 pips with SL=BE.
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