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Trading Major Lines

  • #1,221
  • Jun 10, 2011 2:24pm Jun 10, 2011 2:24pm
This is a perfect example of friday afternoon price action of the price " braiding " up and down at a defined resistance . In this case what I call the " Battle at 1.03250 " at AUDCAD. I was looking for a move down to the major level of 1.0000 . I think eventually it will head there, but for the time being we are here at 1.03250 fighting resistence of the bulls wanting to go up. They are persistant on a friday afternoon.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audcad m5.gif Size: 64 KB
  • #1,222
  • Jun 10, 2011 2:48pm Jun 10, 2011 2:48pm
Made it out before the market close at -$1.12 . Just ran out of time before BE, but pretty close in my book.
  • #1,223
  • Jun 11, 2011 4:21am Jun 11, 2011 4:21am
Quoting kpt1956
Just wanted to say hi to all. I haven't been in the forums for awhile. Last thread I followed was when Bobokus was still active on his price action thread. I'm glad to see the army of price action believers are growing everyday ! Did anyone catch that big drop to 1.4500 on EURUSD? I had anticipated it due to the H and S formation on the 4HR chart . I got in late on it around 1.45400. But heck, if anyone ever figures out how to time the market precisely let me know and I"ll be the first to open a bottle of Dom Pergnon! Mr. Nomask, I would like...
thanks kpt..when that drop happened in eu it was not my favorite pair to trade as it has not tested the major line at 1.5...sure that could still be traded at the time but I had another pair to trade at the same time (nzdusd) with a better location and shape...even though some went almost +200 pips in profit,my positions on that pair died at b.e since I don't like to consider any trade as "profitable" when they're less than at least 400-500 pips..
  • #1,224
  • Jun 11, 2011 4:28am Jun 11, 2011 4:28am
Quoting AlexanderSV
Hey, mates. It is now "red aura" on EU happening at the moment i.e. when both weekly (bearish) and monthly (price below month open) are aligned (as per Pipeasy), so it's time for aggressive stacking.. however, it's already Friday evening and not the perfect time to do so.

If you remember some time ago I noted we had controversial hindsights = Monthly hindsight down (prev. month closed bearish) and weekly hindsight up (week closed bullish). So this time monthly hindsight prevailed over the weekly so we got this bearish week. Sure, it's easy to...
Graeme had two different approach about that...
one is sticking to your hindsight until the market gives proves you that it changed its long term direction,
second is -like you said-being prepared for both directions all the time...
First one is more conservative way and for the people new to his method,second one is rather aggresive and needs extra trading skills..
But imho,even the second one has a greater potential in terms of reward,its not worthy when considering the time and effort you need to spend plus the stress you have to deal with.
  • #1,225
  • Jun 11, 2011 4:42am Jun 11, 2011 4:42am
Quoting cfabian
Thanks god the week is over. I got nailed heavily.

I'll try to stay more focused and recap this thread. Wish one day can trade as easy as Nomask does.

Have a great weekend everyone.
when you feel you're kind of getting lost..step back and focus on the major lines.There is this simple fact,price needs to go from a major line to another.
You see cleaner and better price action on those lines since they attract mass psychology big time by their simplicity.
this is just an endless battle between bulls and bears and sometimes we get lost in the middle of the battle and forget which side we were fighting with.Between our major lines its battlefiled where you get all dust and mess that sometimes you can't even see anything.When it happens best thing to do is retreat to the major line and wait until all the dust settle.
  • #1,226
  • Jun 11, 2011 4:47am Jun 11, 2011 4:47am
So here are my favourite pairs and hindsight for the upcoming week.
I've analyzed 10 pairs and these 3 were better among them.
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  • #1,227
  • Jun 11, 2011 6:07pm Jun 11, 2011 6:07pm
Man, I'm losing my mind. 400+ pips in long EUR/USD positions dead on BE after the news on Thursday. And it was seemingly bullish news (wtf??). Anyway, I have 2 shorts on USD/JPY still alive at almost 300+ pips. Since I'm a US customer (can't hedge) and I clearly see long on the weekly for USD/JPY, I'm considering taking profits on these shorts. Any advice for me would be welcome by Nomask and others.

After being up a total of 700+ pips this week, I am really having a hard time believing that I wouldn't have been better off closing it all out. I'm going to go broke at this rate! I'm still staying true to my promise to myself and this thread (see my last and rather long post), but it is becoming increasingly difficult.
  • #1,228
  • Jun 12, 2011 1:33am Jun 12, 2011 1:33am
Quoting nomask
Graeme had two different approach about that...
one is sticking to your hindsight until the market gives proves you that it changed its long term direction,
second is -like you said-being prepared for both directions all the time...
First one is more conservative way and for the people new to his method,second one is rather aggresive and needs extra trading skills..
But imho,even the second one has a greater potential in terms of reward,its not worthy when considering the time and effort you need to spend plus the stress you have to deal with....
Hello, Nomask. Thank you very much for commenting my post.
Yep, Graeme said he chose to stick in his thread only to one direction for the beginners' better understanding until they get a feeling for his method in its completeness (which is trade both directions).

Also he said why he personally trades both directions - 1. catch a new trend start, 2. not to sit on the sidelines till the opposite to this week signal proves its correctness (as a weekly closed bar).3. additional to no.1 - positions opened on weekly candles wicks have more potential to survive coming weeks retracements and essentially they give much bigger profit in the end.

I fully agree with you that trading both directions is much more stressfull and time-consuming.
However I remember from your pics that you exploit the same principle of trading both directions, just with charts of bigger scale - 1000 and 500 pp (major and mid-major) lines.

I'd like to take this opportunity and thank you for all the good work you've done here, Nomask.
Glad you're back in your thread, please keep it up!
  • #1,229
  • Jun 12, 2011 8:29am Jun 12, 2011 8:29am
that is really agreat thread for both newbies and pros.. well done nomask
  • #1,230
  • Jun 12, 2011 6:41pm Jun 12, 2011 6:41pm
Quoting nomask
So here are my favourite pairs and hindsight for the upcoming week.
I've analyzed 10 pairs and these 3 were better among them.
Hi nomask:

I'm puzzled by your selection of AUDUSD. It looks like it is testing 1.0500 and I'm sure I have seen you state that such a pair isn't suitable until it breaks thru decisively.

Can you explain?

Regards,
JS
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,231
  • Jun 12, 2011 8:17pm Jun 12, 2011 8:17pm
Reason why I continue to follow this consolidation of AUDCAD is the long time that its been going on. Conventional wisdom favors a big and long sustained break whichever way that is. ie. The longer the consolidation the bigger the breakout move. Stay tuned forexers.
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  • #1,232
  • Jun 12, 2011 8:26pm Jun 12, 2011 8:26pm
This could be the move down I have patiently have waited for.
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  • #1,233
  • Jun 12, 2011 8:38pm Jun 12, 2011 8:38pm
I counted 18 rejections at 1.03250 to only 4 at the support of 1.0360. I'd say that's definitely strong bias of more resistence than support and reason to think direction is down.
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  • #1,234
  • Jun 12, 2011 10:25pm Jun 12, 2011 10:25pm
I believe price has now left consolidation for further move down after twice failing 50 % fib test.
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  • #1,235
  • Jun 12, 2011 10:31pm Jun 12, 2011 10:31pm
Breakout in full swing down.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,236
  • Jun 12, 2011 10:36pm Jun 12, 2011 10:36pm
The previous screen just shows what you would see with MA's laid over the price action. I just take a look at this perspective from time to time as a reference confirming PA.
  • #1,237
  • Jun 12, 2011 10:51pm Jun 12, 2011 10:51pm
Looks like price consolidates a bit before each drop
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,238
  • Jun 13, 2011 1:47am Jun 13, 2011 1:47am
Quoting jasonc1213
Man, I'm losing my mind. 400+ pips in long EUR/USD positions dead on BE after the news on Thursday. And it was seemingly bullish news (wtf??). Anyway, I have 2 shorts on USD/JPY still alive at almost 300+ pips. Since I'm a US customer (can't hedge) and I clearly see long on the weekly for USD/JPY, I'm considering taking profits on these shorts. Any advice for me would be welcome by Nomask and others.

After being up a total of 700+ pips this week, I am really having a hard time believing that I wouldn't have been better off closing it all out....
Hi Jason..
just like you said,eu could've been moved another 500 pips easily if it played as per the fundamentals.But sometimes it doesn't and there is nothing you can do about it.
Hedging is an important part to my trading method because when price makes an opposite price action to my current position then I'd have to take advantage of it by hedging.
I believe that your 400 pip-eu trade was very close to hit 1000 pips level.
about your uj trades I posted some charts before and said that I expect a bullish week for it but If I were you I would try to go long without closing my shorts but the problem is you can't hedge..Although I never been in that situation before (all my brokers allowed hedging) but probably I'd close them out as I get to chance to enter in opposite direction.
  • #1,239
  • Jun 13, 2011 1:53am Jun 13, 2011 1:53am
Quoting AlexanderSV
Hello, Nomask. Thank you very much for commenting my post.
Yep, Graeme said he chose to stick in his thread only to one direction for the beginners' better understanding until they get a feeling for his method in its completeness (which is trade both directions).

Also he said why he personally trades both directions - 1. catch a new trend start, 2. not to sit on the sidelines till the opposite to this week signal proves its correctness (as a weekly closed bar).3. additional to no.1 - positions opened on weekly candles wicks have more potential...
ah ha..sounds like you got me
but no,you didn't..I do that "only" when I get a conflicting price actions.If I had two different scenarios in my hands for a pair,I would tend to stay away from it except it has a potential of a great reward.
  • #1,240
  • Jun 13, 2011 1:54am Jun 13, 2011 1:54am
Thanks for posting your chart as I dont usually watch this pair. It looks like we need a 1hr or possibly 4hr bar close beneath your support line drawn. I'm still new to all this and just started following this excellant thread. Keep em coming.
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