vsa with Malcolm

Just looked and it does! Ctrl+C for copy active chart.

and to think i was print screen,edit,posting all this time. bah!

Decided to post a Eur futures trade I took for some learning benefit. Setups like these happen at least once a week and are deadly.

thanks guys for all your help this week...special thanks to pres and hidden gap for the lessons..ill be on vacation next week ...best of trading to all..john

the thing I have got to say is all the blithering about where the EUR/USd is going and not a sole has reviewed the head and shoulder pattern that presented itself on the 4 hour chart 2/3 days ago. so how are all them indicators working for you

Thanks for dropping by. I really enjoyed this post.

Maybe your post would be more appreciated in the 'Head and Shoulders' thread.

Nice one, thanks for posting the chart

Knees and toes, knees and toes.

I'm not aware that a "sole" could review a chart. The human foot is complex indeed but to be able to decipher a currency chart truly is impressive.

OK the point I wanted dvarrin to note was this:- when we see a wide spread down bar closing well off the low on high volume, it means that the bar MIGHT contain buying. I's a possibility, it could do, it may contain buying.

We don't know for certain. We should use this information to help build a picture of market as it unfolds. What has happened in the recent past? What is happening right now? How does our bar fit in with what we KNOW about the market? It's only by reading the rest of the chart, that we can decide whether our bar did actually contain buying or not.

There are far too many people here posting that this bar means there IS hidden buying inside. This confuses some newer traders.

I think you took a wrong turn on your way to the EU thread they will more than welcome you.

Anyone mind posting up a 4h of euro with volume? TOS futures volume have been outta whack this week for me.

Taking the advice of the experts here, I annotated a chart in which I took a few trades.

I tried to trade triggers, but got confused as how to interpret price action around the trigger line. I understand how and where to draw triggers, but the action around the trigger line isnt clear to me yet, as a test and no demand can look very similar. I will read more about triggers when I get the chance, and stay away from trying to trade them for now.

I have also used Hull moving average to determine shorts or longs, only to find myself at the top or bottom trying to trade in the direction of the trend and get stopped out because "this time" it was a reversal. I had good trades with this as well, but too often it was a reversal instead of a retracement.

So I have decided to just watch for trades at basic horizontal s/r for now, and thats what this is about.

A. There is an old top in the background. These two bars are very high volume closing off the highs. But they are trying to push through an old top which makes this absorption volume.

B. Still trying to push through the old top on very high volume, supply totally overtakes demand to close on the low and form an upthrust.

C. A test of the supply that entered on the previous bars. Much lower volume and closing on the high. I enter long at the top of this bar.

D. SM is not interested in higher prices. If they were this bar would have increasing volume not decreasing, and would have a much wider spread. I entered and closed on this bar. Thought about going short, but decided I needed an upthrust.

E. Here it is, upthrust on low volume. Confirms there is no interest in higher prices. I enter short at the bottom of this bar.

F. 2 bar reversal with the second bar on increasing volume. Strength enters the picture again and I close my position.

G. More Strength enters here, I start thinking about longs again and looking for ns and tests.

H. No supply. But the next bar does not confirm. Still showing strength.

I. Looks like a test but on high volume. More strength anyway and tells me im thinking right.

J. The test im looking for and I enter long at the top of this bar.

K. Closing above the old top off the highs, could be absorption or pure selling.

L. Upthrust into new high ground. This confirms the selling. Also a good bit lower volume than the last bar, shows even more weakness. I close my long on this bar, and start thinking about shorts again.

M. No Demand. More weakness.

N. No Demandish, no buying pressure. Weakness either way.

O. Hidden Upthrust. This is enough weakness to get me in. I enter short at the bottom of this bar.

No annotation, but 2 bars after O. Down bar closing off the lows on high volume. Strength enters...again. This one makes me mad but I stay in short.

P. I dont know what this is. Is this a test of the newly entered strength? It does not make a lower low. Or is it a no demand confirming the earlier weakness? Makes a higher high than last bar. This is where I get into trouble usually. (See my first post) I dont think the market knew either, because the next bar initially fell and then found strength. So it was actually confirmed both ways lol.

Q. Strength...again.

R. Both of these bars show SM isnt interested in higher prices. First is No demand, would still consider second one no demand as well. I brought my stop down to the top of these bars when price fell from here. Thinking about it now, with 2 bars in recent background showing strength I should have closed once the bar after these 2 closed.

S. Not totally sure on this one, but I would say it is a test of the strength from bar Q. At this point I had my stop in at BE+ a few so I had my mind more on the NBA Finals.

T. More Strength shows up, and stops me out. At this point I have decided they are trying to dry up supply for a move north. I am too tired to wait for any more signals so I mininmize and go to bed. Guess its a good thing because I would have been on the wrong side, and I dont see a good signal to get me in short for that big move.

This is probably overtrading, but all the signals were good. Also, at the moment I am only taking a one micro lot position on all trades.(Have only been trading since mid-April) Until I am profitable with this, I wont be risking 2% of my account. If I was risking 2%, probably the only trade I would have taken was the last with the low volume upthrust. Well anyway, I made it through this gauntlet with +6 pips

Hope this wasn't too long, and hopefully it helps someone else. I had fun creating it anyway.

I dont have time to give a full analysis but at a quick glance:-

A - POSSIBLE absorbtion! You don't know yet.
B - Yes
C - Never ever ever take a long on the bar after an UT. (not until you are MUCH more experienced).
D - Well done for closing! '....needed an UT....' HELLO,,,,, look 2 bars previous!!!!!!!! Could short here.
E - Not an UT. It's a test of demand(not strictly VSA). Could short here.
F - Closing here is a 50/50 personal choice.
G - Do not trade against the weakness seen earlier.
H - A short here would have been acceptable.
I - Some strength.
J - Not a tet. It's a No buying Pressure (weakness).
K - Yes.
L - Yes but, we want to see an UT with the highest volume possible. A low volume UT is not as weak and therefore more unreliable. Ours is fine tho.
M - You have missed thesignificance of the bar previous to this. It is a down bar which confirms the weakness of the UT. A short on the break of the low of this bar is the ideal entry point.
N - None of these. Just a weak bar.
O - A short entry here is ok if you're not already in but beware. Entering just becase it's a hidden UT is a losing trade in general. Make sure you no WHY the UT is 'hidden'.
O1/2 - GET A GRIP MAN!
P - Price is stallin at point G from earlier. It's to be expected dont panic.
Q - Yes, still to be expected.
R - NDs yes. SL should be set and left at UT high + 2 pips. Now is no time to get nervous. The trade is going as expected.
S - If you want to watch the finals go and watch them but, dont risk your money while doing it.
T - A typical move for a new trader. Once you get to know these trades you will realise that a move back up to around the low of the UT is a normal event before the main move down. Some traders (HG for instance) would not concider entering this trade until the retrace has come. That way, your MA is probably in favour aswell giving added safety and comfort to the trade.

It seems to me that you are trying to analyse every bar as it comes. This is ok but will definately confuse you until you are much more experienced. If you see all that weakness in the background then, some strength comes in, it will probably be short lived unless it's a HUGE amount of strength. Read the generalities of the chart and dont trade against it for a while.

At your level, I think trading with the trend will help you out. Analyse HGs posts. He is very good at trading this way with these kind of setups.

Dont forget these little rules:-

You dont have to get every change in direction.
You dont have to be right all the time.
Concentrate on trading 1 type of setup at a time until you can recognise it in your sleep.

so how is baking cake in the sand box with your special friends working for you?

a 0-eyed could spot that shampoo on the 4hr but where's your trigger mr sandcake?

Exactly what I need. Thank you for taking the time. Looks like I was right on some bars, totally wrong on others, and gave a few too much weight.

Yes, I do analyze every bar. I just need to apply the correct relevance to each bar. The strength that showed up in bars F, G, and I was only enough strength to tell me price wasnt ready to go lower yet, and the weakness from bars A and B still reigns supreme. Im guessing thats why a short at H would be acceptable? Which is also the reason why bar J is no buying pressure, and not a test. That and J also doesn't go lower than I.

Don't get me wrong, I trust your expertise, but one thing I don't understand is why H says to short. It doesn't go higher than the bar before, and also closes in the lower third, which is technically no supply. Im sure weakness in the background from A and B is the answer, and although technically is no supply, in this situation it says price isnt ready to go higher.

Thanks for pointing out problem with the low volume on the upthrust, L, and the importance of the bar after it. Looking at it now, L could have just been the start of a low volume retracement to test the new support. The bar after tells you this is no retracement, higher prices are not coming, and too look for no demand.

Hidden upthrust is hidden because it closes lower than it opened. But the significance of this bar to me is that it made a higher high than the last bar, and closed in the lower third on high volume.

Are O 1/2 and Q residual strength left over from F and G, is this why it is expected? Ok, mad was a strong word lol. But message recieved

Im still very confused about P, seems like O 1/2 has more control over P than G. And you would expect price to stall here? All I can say is I hope one day I can read it as well as you.

My stop was placed exactly where you said, but if I would have been expecting the strength that showed up I would have left it there and would have been in the big move down.

The strength that did show up was to push price back up to retest the resistance, and that is where my focus should have been, the reaction on the retest. The low volume would have told me it wasnt going to push through. Although the time of day is one of low volume anyway, if it was going to push through, it would have to have been abnormally high for the time of day, which would have told me that price was going higher.

One last thing, at A and B, in order to confirm this as absorption volume, do we have to wait on price to push through and then come back down to retest? And I already know that this is where we go long, but I was just wondering at what point do we accept this as absorption.

I will continue to read and reread HG's posts along with many others here. I wouldn't be where I am now if it weren't for you all, and thanks for the knowledge you all choose to impart.

ignorant twat.

I should not have suggested a short at D & H. It is something I have been working on and is not VSA 101. Please ignore that part.

Absorbtion is not easy to spot on the right edge. In fact, it is just about impossible. We can give an educated guess by looking at the background, but to 'KNOW' is difficult. We have to know that it COULD be absorbtion, that is all we can do. Then we analyse the charts right edge to see what it tells us. This is when we decide whether it was absorbtion or a turning point.

here is my post on the es weakness .. target is just a mere 15 points away

This just goes to show that vsa can be used on any times frames