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Majors Thread: EUR, USD, GBP, JPY

  • #21
  • Mar 14, 2006 12:58am Mar 14, 2006 12:58am
Quoting iboersma
Hi all,

I have gotten separate confirmation of a short-term (5m) and 4h LONG signal for EUR/USD today around 2pm MST/4pm EST. Is anyone biting on this or are you all sitting out until after the quarterly trade deficit news tomorrow (Tuesday)?

Ian
What are you using to get this 'confirming'? Do you have a target? Using a stoploss?

I think the eur/usd has some upside still left. It might be a relatively small range for the week. It's kinda got a tightening wedge developing on the weekly chart so it really could be a smaller range than last week. I also think it has more probability of breaking out long if it does break the wedge. The trendline on top for that wedge is at about 1.2060. With the current at 1.1960s it might be a good position. Although if I was to try and enter now...I'd actually wait another 8-12 hours untill the 4hr slowstoch rolls over again because it's about overbought and ready to turn south right now. A position would have to wait in the minus until that finished it's decent and turns back up. I would look for a visit below 1.1950 before entering long. I have as much as 1.1920ish for the bottom of this 4hr stoch trough with the current being 1.1969...69... a good year...lol

It really was a better idea to get in friday or right about market open. My long window was open on friday. There looks to be more range possible with cable this week. That's why I'm focusing on it right now....and euppy is wiggin me a bit. I'm wanting to go short here soon. Although my indicators are out of sorts and not really giving a clean signal but I feel it's ready to plummet like it likes to do...not without first a potential rise to 143.30ish. If it breaks the recent high at around 142.30 it will test the higher price and probably bounce off that TL and shoot below 1.40. The TL at the recent high looks pretty stiff as well. That might not give in at all. I feel another test of it is in good order at least.
  • #22
  • Mar 14, 2006 10:09am Mar 14, 2006 10:09am
Quoting Money Duck
Pipsta,

You mind if I grab a beer from the fridge?
help yourself......just don't give any to the dog...he's a recovering alcoholic and he'll beg ya hard...

Quoting Pipsta
Although if I was to try and enter now...I'd actually wait another 8-12 hours untill the 4hr slowstoch rolls over again because it's about overbought and ready to turn south right now. A position would have to wait in the minus until that finished it's decent and turns back up. I would look for a visit below 1.1950 before entering long.
I nailed that one huh...dropped to 1.1939 before it broke above 1.20. I was going to give a specific price of 1.1940 as the bottom but felt anything below 1.1950 was good enough. It happened a little quicker than I had expected but hey...close enough for FXers!
  • #23
  • Mar 15, 2006 3:38pm Mar 15, 2006 3:38pm
Quoting Pipsta
What are you using to get this 'confirming'? Do you have a target? Using a stoploss?

I think the eur/usd has some upside still left. It might be a relatively small range for the week. It's kinda got a tightening wedge developing on the weekly chart so it really could be a smaller range than last week. I also think it has more probability of breaking out long if it does break the wedge. The trendline on top for that wedge is at about 1.2060. With the current at 1.1960s it might be a good position. Although if I was to try and enter now...I'd actually wait another 8-12 hours untill the 4hr slowstoch rolls over again because it's about overbought and ready to turn south right now. A position would have to wait in the minus until that finished it's decent and turns back up. I would look for a visit below 1.1950 before entering long. I have as much as 1.1920ish for the bottom of this 4hr stoch trough with the current being 1.1969...69... a good year...lol

It really was a better idea to get in friday or right about market open. My long window was open on friday. There looks to be more range possible with cable this week. That's why I'm focusing on it right now....and euppy is wiggin me a bit. I'm wanting to go short here soon. Although my indicators are out of sorts and not really giving a clean signal but I feel it's ready to plummet like it likes to do...not without first a potential rise to 143.30ish. If it breaks the recent high at around 142.30 it will test the higher price and probably bounce off that TL and shoot below 1.40. The TL at the recent high looks pretty stiff as well. That might not give in at all. I feel another test of it is in good order at least.
Hey Pipsta,

I'm using Vegas' 1 and 4 hr tunnels with 1 and 2 deviation Bollinger Band filter right now. I sat out getting in on the EUR move up, for which I am now duly kicking myself. I'm now short USD/CAD and watching the pair trade sideways... Arghh.

EUR/USD looks to be in consolidation mode after its jump up earlier. Any prognostications?

- Ian
  • #24
  • Mar 16, 2006 10:25am Mar 16, 2006 10:25am
Using a still developing strategy my main indicator for that, the slow stoch, has made it's initial touch on the overbought horizontal. Well, it's actually just within 10 points of the line but after the addition of the past 24 hour's data by NY session end to the indicator it will have made that touch. Normally the first touch is just the opening of the window to begin searching for reversal patterns. Although the past two first touches have been quick turns so I'm going to be watching early for spots to begin entering with smalls positions at first then adding.

Both the cable and fiber are nearing their first touch with fiber being closer(less than 2 points) than the cable(9 points). With both making strikes on significant MAs on longer term charts(1.2155 fiber weekly, 1.7554 cable daily) the recent tops could be it as far as tops. Although I have a hunch, based on some indicator setups that there could be more push north by the fiber, cable and euppy. Primarily both the cable and fiber have weekly stochs that are oversold and turning. With the weekly and daily stochs contra there could be some unpredictable price actions.

Fiber broke a TL on the daily charts but then ran up to another TL which is actually a bit stronger and it could see 1.22 before it makes it's turn. The cable is looking like it could make a move on the TL that has been established on the weekly chart by the past 4 candles and that is up at 1.7650ish.

I have been just testing this new strategy on paper but I can't help myself when I let some of the singals enter my thoughts when trading live. I've only been developing this specific method for a few months but it's so promising I find myself using it in my deliberations.
  • #25
  • Edited 10:55am Mar 17, 2006 10:43am | Edited 10:55am
Fiber is still pressing a TL it had created in the rise over the past month or so. There is a even bigger TL on the weekly going way back with peaks in sept05 and feb06 which is downsloping at 1.2240. A break of the recent highs should bring the price up to that which isn't really that far at all.

Cable makes no sense as to why it's been held below the projected high for the week with all the long movement in the fiber. I'm disapointed because I chose the cable as being the one with more upside to it only to be left watching a muted rise. Somehow the TL, which is pretty significant anyhoo, from the two candled peak in feb on the weekly chart seemed to provide some stiff resistence and held it below last weeks high. If the recent high gives way I could see this pair shooting up to the 1.7650ish level I had hoped it would.

Shortin on both of those could commence as soon as I see a definite reversal candle on the daily chart with either. 4hr charts have been talking reversal for almost a half dozen candles now but those are some lying candles......With the weekly charts stoch making the bull cross from oversold ranges the retracements southbound probably won't be too deep.

Euppy hit that short target of 142.50ish, which is a decending TL, by way of a quick touch down into 140 then back up to the TL only to back way off it again. I don't reallly see it making it to the further target of 143.20ish anymore but I guess it's still possible with the weekly stoch being neutral yet making a bullish cross although the daily stoch is overbought and languishing above the upper horizontal.

The USD/JPY has made an initial touch on the daily stoch. I haven't seen as much from this pair to support this type signal. It has atendency to overun initial touch levels pretty significantly so as to make it an uneasy entering signal. If it were good for this pair I'd say sub 116 are good levels to find longs from but I'm not as confident taking those positions.
  • #26
  • Mar 20, 2006 11:28am Mar 20, 2006 11:28am
The fiber isn't really producing a definitively convincing candle on the daily for a reversal but at this point I feel it likely will only be a shallow retracement as the weekly chart stoch is pushing against it. It still has the opportunity to make a quick move back towards 1.20 because the daily chart has much of it's MA support bundled up right about at 1.20. So I took a small short at 1.2193 and will add if there is a break below 1.2145(and rising) and I will keep in mind there is a chance that an MA at 1.1992(and rising steeply) could contain the retracement.
  • #27
  • Edited 7:09pm Mar 23, 2006 12:03pm | Edited 7:09pm
It's unfortunate that I'm the only one posting in this thread regularly. I had hoped it could be a place for open comments about the majors not directed specifically for any of the other threads, but it looks like I'm just talking to myself. I'm not sure how much longer I'll talk to myself...

I've closed my short on the fiber at 1.1975(opened at 1.2193) and opened a small long. I had a second short that I opened at 1.2145 that I closed at 1.2070. This long is a bit of a reach as I don't have any specific signal on it. It's really based on a trendline that appears on the weekly chart and supported by one on the daily chart as well. The one on the daily has a spike that previously broke the TL just before the move up in conjunction with a long signal then.

There is a level at 1.1951 that could attract the price for a spike if it indeed wants to continue short. This is a strong possiblity as the price action is still talking bearish after this move down below 1.20. I really will go long in a bigger way once the slow stoch has matured and made it's initial touch. It still looks to be up to 48 hours away from doing that.

I initiated the small long because of the TL bounce and I feel there should be some retracement after this move at least back up to 1.20 but at this point my guesstimation has been inaccurate. It's has only retraced to 1.1990 and now is consolidating around 1.1980. Enough for me to break even but thats about it. I should have taken the cable for the scalp and would have been up 25pips or more but alas I didn't have any good levels indentified on that pair for reversal so wasn't sure where to make my entry.

The usd/jpy did well enough on the last slow stoch touch that I had mentioned and could have taken a nice long there but I am still not confident enough with this method on that pair. I'm focusing more on it as I hope that I can get a better handle on the price action with regards to initial touches.

I had taken a short on eur/jpy last night for a scalp that netted me 25 pips and was dismayed to wake up and find I could have held it and banked more unfortunately I didn't have any signal for it so I wasn't sure it would fulfill.

Hopefully I won't be always talking to myself in here. If I find that is the case I just might let this thread fade into the mire of the backpages......

edit:
I added a chart(yay chart!) and looked closer for upcoming levels of possible reversal. I dumped my long for minimal gain and am now just watching the continued bearish action. I suspect a test of the closest TL before the day is done and watch for signs of a break the very next day sooner than later. I could add to that break with a short of my own except that the resistence levels come every 50pips or so and that limits possible breakout gains. As the stoch is ripening and we could see it mature before the market closes. Early next week could present us with our true bottoms even with any significant and unlikely retracement by the way price action is looking before close this week.

another edit: I know my chart looks as though the bottom horizontal line of the slow stoch is set at 32.0000, but the truth is it's set at 20.0000 . I'm not sure why it looks like that but I'm assuring you the horizontals are set for 80.0000 and 20.0000 on my chart's indicator. I didn't want to mislead by mistaken graphics...

doh!...I just figgered out what happened. Whne I took a screen snap I got the cross hairs of my cursor in the shot so when I took them out in PS so as not to muddle the stoch's look I accidentally took out the wrong line and since they both use the same color and width dotted line I didn't notice. I'll also say that after todays added data to the stoch the level is now down to 32.000 ironically and by tomorow market close we will find intitial touch conditions.

edit: fixed bad stoch line and updated chart with potential turn levels.
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  • #28
  • Mar 23, 2006 3:29pm Mar 23, 2006 3:29pm
I also thought that there would be a continued bearish trend and was short. I just closed out that position because it did not happen. I had expected a breather then a continued trend downward.
I am new to this and am looking for all the help I can get.
I am comfortable with most of the indicators, but never learned about pivot points, so that is still a mystery.
I am attempting to learn from the systems presented but I am having trouble finding the beginning so that I can learn. Any suggestions?
  • #29
  • Edited 3:50pm Mar 23, 2006 3:44pm | Edited 3:50pm
I think it is ripe now to short at about 1.7370 for at least 1.7350

I don't think many people will long EUR or GBP since the market expects good Durable Good Orders tomorrow. It should send USD higher till FOMC next week, Tuesday

Japan industrial report in a short while 0.4 or better, will send the EUR down - my Guess

Highway

Please don't quit. You can see how many are viewing your comments
  • #30
  • Mar 23, 2006 4:02pm Mar 23, 2006 4:02pm
Quoting moonchild
I also thought that there would be a continued bearish trend and was short. I just closed out that position because it did not happen. I had expected a breather then a continued trend downward.
I am new to this and am looking for all the help I can get.
I am comfortable with most of the indicators, but never learned about pivot points, so that is still a mystery.
I am attempting to learn from the systems presented but I am having trouble finding the beginning so that I can learn. Any suggestions?
Yea, well, the market has no mind of it's own, so using the mind to try and determine it's course is futile. Yet I still try and am wrong more times than I'm right. That's why I attempt to stay disciplined and let the market make up my mind for me. I like trendlines and the first TL on my posted chart is when I start to look for reversals. Often it's not the first one that is it. If it is, I'm on it and in great position before most other methods have their signals and confirmations. Although I have to expect that there will be one or two break even or small loss positions before I get the ones that are mere pips from the tops and bottoms, then add to my position as it confirms the turns. Using trendlines I can continue to join breaks either way even if I'm looking for a particular turn. It works for me but everyone has to find their own comfort zone.

When I first started studying technical analysis I found this website's tutorial very good. You could spend a weekend reading all the material there and feel considerably more confident about your knowledge. The website is geared for stocks more than forex but TA is TA on any market. It just takes the trader to figure out which stuff is working for themselves and the particular market they are trading. The tutorial isn't so advanced that it will lose the beginner, but it's not so brief that it's leaves alot out. Plus since I'm such a big fan of candlestick patterns I have this website's glossary to offer someone wanting a quick reference guide to a nice selection of candlestick patterns.

There's a ton of advanced and more complex stuff that goes into detail on specific things which I'm sure others can direct you to which I don't really use myself much. So I'm going with some broad stuff for someone who wants to get up to speed so to speak or keep themselves refreshed on it.
  • #31
  • Mar 23, 2006 4:12pm Mar 23, 2006 4:12pm
Quoting highway3000
I think it is ripe now to short at about 1.7370 for at least 1.7350

I don't think many people will long EUR or GBP since the market expects good Durable Good Orders tomorrow. It should send USD higher till FOMC next week, Tuesday

Japan industrial report in a short while 0.4 or better, will send the EUR down - my Guess

Highway

Please don't quit. You can see how many are viewing your comments
That's quite a risk for such a short target on a scalp. I'm not getting to many levels from TLs or MAs for the cable right now, only historical levels and I don't have as much confidence in those. What a trader could do is wait until they get a reversal on the fiber(eur/usd) and bank on the cable doing the same thing which it typically does. I'd have to keep a wide stop for that because cable has such a spikeability it could stop someone out then go in the direction they were hoping. Whipsawing them right out of the money.

I don't try and guess what everyone else is going to do. That's too fundamental analysis for me. Trying to guess the emotions of traders is like trying to guess the mood of women...good luck with that....heh
  • #32
  • Mar 23, 2006 5:02pm Mar 23, 2006 5:02pm
Quoting Pipsta
That's quite a risk for such a short target on a scalp. I'm not getting to many levels from TLs or MAs for the cable right now, only historical levels and I don't have as much confidence in those. What a trader could do is wait until they get a reversal on the fiber(eur/usd) and bank on the cable doing the same thing which it typically does. I'd have to keep a wide stop for that because cable has such a spikeability it could stop someone out then go in the direction they were hoping. Whipsawing them right out of the money.

I don't try and guess what everyone else is going to do. That's too fundamental analysis for me. Trying to guess the emotions of traders is like trying to guess the mood of women...good luck with that....heh
i'm not able to get much from cable atm either. i did enter a short euro which is still open at 1.2088, after seeing the confluence trendline + ma + fib..

wonder how far it will go?

on a side note, the usd/cad is currently stuck and not moving anywhere..
Trade what you see, not what you believe.....
  • #33
  • Mar 23, 2006 9:21pm Mar 23, 2006 9:21pm
Thank you for the information Pipsta, very helpful. I have breifly looked at the sites and they will require quite a bit of my time. I know about 15 or 18 candlestick patterns and never imagined that there were so many more.
I have yet to decide where to start on the other site. Why don't you post the information about these sites on the newbee forum?
  • #34
  • Mar 24, 2006 2:55am Mar 24, 2006 2:55am
Good Morning Pipsta
Qoute
I don't try and guess what everyone else is going to do. That's too fundamental analysis for me. Trying to guess the emotions of traders is like trying to guess the mood of women...good luck with that....heh[/quote]

I entered Uni to study criminology. There you read the mind of what a criminal would or would have done. But in forex one have to apply psychology differently along with charting. You are right about guessing trader...women.. what they will do is unpredictable. But look at it in probabilities. No pound supportive report coming in next 24 hrs but USD is supported for various reasons. Already GBP is in a down rally.
If you have to guess what other traders will do, you have 2 probabilitiesor more.
1. They will sell GBP
2. Do nothing.
I see it with a limited probability. What any trader won't do. Commit sucide. They won't do - Go long GBP.
With that I calculate the number of candles to draw the chanel lines forming a short down trend. I then trade within this chanel. ( Not in chart. I wish to keep it to my self for the time being )
I am trained how to use all gathered informations and apply it in the big picture. If there are 10 tools in Forex, I believe together they give better result.
I enjoy your thread and the way you see it. Don't quit ! !
Highway
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  • #35
  • Mar 24, 2006 5:44am Mar 24, 2006 5:44am
Good Morning, at least where I am,

I thought I would take a moment and show the last trade on the GBPUSD that started on 03/20/06 at 19:00 EST. This was a 4 Hour tunnel trade...

I would comment more, but the chart says it all.
Now hopefully I have figured out how to upload the dang chart.

thanks SMJ
Attached Image
  • #36
  • Mar 24, 2006 6:21am Mar 24, 2006 6:21am
As I look at this chart, there were at least four ways to make this trade.

1 It started on 3/20 as a Steve Nison Price contiuation pattern down.
2 Dow Theory placed the trade at the same time and the trade is still open.
3 There was a 4 Hour tunnel signal when the 8MA turned down, on 03/20
4 This is one big Head and Shoulders pattern and the down ralley is the
fruition of that neck line break.

It was a classic, my point is when a trade presents itself, it is recongnizable from several different methods of trading and several different perspectives...
Then you know you have a HIGH probability trade....

thanks SMJ
  • #37
  • Mar 24, 2006 9:59am Mar 24, 2006 9:59am
Just thought I would show how this trade worked out.
It closed for a total of 518 pips, on a trailing stop, just above a trend line.

Have a nice weekend, SMJ
  • #38
  • Mar 24, 2006 10:07am Mar 24, 2006 10:07am
Quoting smjones
As I look at this chart, there were at least four ways to make this trade.

1 It started on 3/20 as a Steve Nison Price contiuation pattern down.
2 Dow Theory placed the trade at the same time and the trade is still open.
3 There was a 4 Hour tunnel signal when the 8MA turned down, on 03/20
4 This is one big Head and Shoulders pattern and the down ralley is the
fruition of that neck line break.

It was a classic, my point is when a trade presents itself, it is recongnizable from several different methods of trading and several different perspectives...
Then you know you have a HIGH probability trade....

thanks SMJ
nice..... I agree about the setup. I often find myself looking at a chart that has a price approaching a level and see that MAs, TLs and other indicators converging on the very same level within pips of each other. I shake my head and wonder how all the seemingly chaotic moves of these different sources will converge and they all will give the same level the price moves to. Add in the candlestick patterns and the time sensitive nature of their creation and I wonder how a price will seem to wallow around for hours to create a certain pattern then after the candle change race off once the change occurs. At the top of the hour, and every four hours at the top of the hour you can almost ensure that there will be a test of some price level. Why do traders wait or how does the rate wait to make it's move until the clock says a certain time? It's the chicken or the egg question. Does the market behave that way because of the traders or do the traders behave that way because of the market?

Quoting highway3000
If you have to guess what other traders will do, you have 2 probabilitiesor more.
1. They will sell GBP
2. Do nothing.
I see it with a limited probability. What any trader won't do. Commit sucide. They won't do - Go long GBP.
Lol...just more proof the market has no mind....if no traders went long they didn't make any money this morning. Thing is, traders did go long, otherwise there's nobody buying cable and no buying pressure so it wouldn't have made that bull move after the fake break south.

I opened a long last night, it was after midnight here in AZ, on the fiber at 1.1966 put a stop down at 1.1941 and still got up in time to watch it strike what I believe would be it's pitstop and I hedged off at 1.2020. Candlestick patterns have a few strong possible patterns IMHO that it likely will form for the day. One is it will leave the high as it established this morn and come to rest(close) between 1.20 and the high. Another one is it still rises to test the upper TL created by the bear candles of the last 4 that were completed which would bring a high of around 1.2050-60 and a close potentially near there as well. The third option I see is a retest of lows just set this morning down by 1.1950ish leaving a distinctly bearish candle (gravestone)as it closes right around the test. If I was a betting man I'd put my money on one of the two first possiblities although the last option is just as possible in my mind's eye so I'm done for this morning. I got me 50 pips for my effort and I'm likely sitting out until market opens again after the weekend. I could find myself scalping a little if I see a clear 20-30 pip snag somewhere which is always possible.
  • #39
  • Mar 24, 2006 10:09am Mar 24, 2006 10:09am
Quoting smjones
Just thought I would show how this trade worked out.
It closed for a total of 518 pips, on a trailing stop, just above a trend line.

Have a nice weekend, SMJ
Well isn't that just piptacular!
  • #40
  • Mar 24, 2006 10:13am Mar 24, 2006 10:13am
Quoting Pipsta
Well isn't that just piptacular!
You got that right, I guess my wife won't leave me this weekend...
SMJ
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