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Order Flow - Achieving the mindset

  • #1,801
  • Jun 10, 2011 6:48am Jun 10, 2011 6:48am
LONDON, June 10 (IFR)- EUR/CHF has sunk to a 1.2173 session low as the Euro is hit on the latest Greek debt/default jitters. However, the 1.2053 all-time cross lows are below the market at present. The Franc has overlooked its own inflation and unemployment issues, with wider risk interests seen driving the latest volatility. Yet should the Swissie probe to new historic highs then expect locals to once again begin talking over possible SNBinterventions.

I'll be waiting for that....

however if I wanted to short, I'd be looking for 2400-2500 on eur/chf maybe
  • #1,802
  • Jun 10, 2011 6:53am Jun 10, 2011 6:53am
Quoting Monroe
LONDON, June 10 (IFR)- EUR/CHF has sunk to a 1.2173 session low as the Euro is hit on the latest Greek debt/default jitters. However, the 1.2053 all-time cross lows are below the market at present. The Franc has overlooked its own inflation and unemployment issues, with wider risk interests seen driving the latest volatility. Yet should the Swissie probe to new historic highs then expect locals to once again begin talking over possible SNBinterventions.

I'll be waiting for that....

however if I wanted to short, I'd be looking for 2400-2500...
I can't imagine how you can follow both IFR and forexlive, man. I simply have no time for it.
I meant shorting CHF.
  • #1,803
  • Jun 10, 2011 6:55am Jun 10, 2011 6:55am
Quoting seagreen
I can't imagine how you can follow both IFR and forexlive, man. I simply have no time for it.
really? i read fast!

It really does not take much time at all. I like IFR better anyway
  • #1,804
  • Jun 10, 2011 6:56am Jun 10, 2011 6:56am
I've been wary of SNB invervention on the E/Chf. Been starting to back off the shorts. Intervention was brushed off recently but they've made it known that it will be done if their currency gets much stronger than the Eur.
  • #1,805
  • Edited 7:13am Jun 10, 2011 7:00am | Edited 7:13am
Quoting EmeraldEyes
I've been wary of SNB invervention on the E/Chf. Been starting to back off the shorts. Intervention was brushed off recently but they've made it known that it will be done if their currency gets much stronger than the Eur.
Yup... I mean it looks a bit extended and being near all time lows I'm sure even the big guys would be doing the same as you, so you'll be getting some take profits down here, especially if SNB starts to verbally intervene. Then maybe look to short at the retest of the prior lows up at 2400-2500 to test the SNB.... ??? I don't know sounds good to me.

Just don't want to see seagreen or anyone be their liquidity...

edit: it would be nice if that happens around the 1.2 psych level...
  • #1,806
  • Jun 10, 2011 7:11am Jun 10, 2011 7:11am
Quoting Monroe
Yup... I mean it looks a bit extended and being near all time lows I'm sure even the big guys would be doing the same as you, so you'll be getting some take profits down here, especially if SNB starts to verbally intervene. Then maybe look to short at the retest of the prior lows up at 2400-2500 to test the SNB.... ??? I don't know sounds good to me.

Just don't want to see seagreen or anyone be their liquidity...
Ok, fine. I'm withdrawing my bid at 2150 and leaving the one at 2100.
  • #1,807
  • Jun 10, 2011 7:14am Jun 10, 2011 7:14am
Quoting seagreen
Ok, fine. I'm withdrawing my bid at 2150 and leaving the one at 2100.
haha, I hope I don't ruin some quick cash for you, but... just giving a heads up and a more tactical play perhaps...
  • #1,808
  • Jun 10, 2011 7:22am Jun 10, 2011 7:22am
Quoting Monroe
haha, I hope I don't ruin some quick cash for you, but... just giving a heads up and a more tactical play perhaps...
I appreciate that, Monroe. I'm really enjoying following your thoughts.
  • #1,809
  • Jun 10, 2011 7:27am Jun 10, 2011 7:27am
Quoting seagreen
I appreciate that, Monroe. I'm really enjoying following your thoughts.
no prob i mean maybe you can get a little momentum play on it but I think a cool play would be snb talk and/or Greece problems temporarily solved by the 20th... should give a nice correction right?
  • #1,810
  • Jun 10, 2011 8:12am Jun 10, 2011 8:12am
Quoting Monroe
Yup... I mean it looks a bit extended and being near all time lows I'm sure even the big guys would be doing the same as you, so you'll be getting some take profits down here, especially if SNB starts to verbally intervene. Then maybe look to short at the retest of the prior lows up at 2400-2500 to test the SNB.... ??? I don't know sounds good to me.

Just don't want to see seagreen or anyone be their liquidity...

edit: it would be nice if that happens around the 1.2 psych level...
My mindset is that Eur/Chf will make new lows before new highs. 1.20 would be a level. Round # & new low. This thing is running towards parity too fast if it breaks 1.2

Seagreen, I didnt know much about this until I read some history of the SNB the other night and how important the E/C rate is to them. Usd & Gbp paired is what I've been watching. Gbp has had some recent bearish news too I believe.
  • #1,811
  • Jun 10, 2011 8:19am Jun 10, 2011 8:19am
Quoting EmeraldEyes
My mindset is that Eur/Chf will make new lows before new highs. 1.20 would be a level. Round # & new low. This thing is running towards parity too fast if it breaks 1.2

Seagreen, I didnt know much about this until I read some history of the SNB the other night and how important the E/C rate is to them. Usd & Gbp paired is what I've been watching. Gbp has had some recent bearish news too I believe.
Would you share that read on SNB?
  • #1,812
  • Jun 10, 2011 8:21am Jun 10, 2011 8:21am
Quoting EmeraldEyes
My mindset is that Eur/Chf will make new lows before new highs. 1.20 would be a level. Round # & new low. This thing is running towards parity too fast.
.
Fair assumption with the current situation... I'm not up on this pair and it's movement to be honest, just giving some thoughts...
  • #1,813
  • Jun 10, 2011 8:54am Jun 10, 2011 8:54am
I thought this was pretty interesting. Not saying follow this guys trade calls, just interesting on how he called the Trichet ECB play well in advance. Enjoy.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/43326847

I see it just keeps falling and falling and falling. what a ride.
  • #1,814
  • Jun 10, 2011 9:00am Jun 10, 2011 9:00am
Quoting Louie
I thought this was pretty interesting. Not saying follow this guys trade calls, just interesting on how he called the Trichet ECB play well in advance. Enjoy.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/43326847

I see it just keeps falling and falling and falling. what a ride.
Looks like its going to 4350 tech support.
  • #1,815
  • Jun 10, 2011 2:04pm Jun 10, 2011 2:04pm
on DJ market talk a dealer was also saying that "strong vigilance" was not the only thing you should be watching out for during Trichet's speech... he was saying watching for what his expectations on inflation were and if he indicates a series of rate hikes or not, and also what he says about the peripheral debt problems are important. The 'cycle gurus' aka FX Concepts also called for a euro drop and general risk off scenario... however they are calling for quite a drop...

I was feeling a big sell off after I was sitting in my chair thinking about how this might play out with a perfect H&S almost complete, and expectations too high with Greece woes unsolved, however I still had to wait for the PA that day to give me the signal while I was watching the speech, but next time I will try and go with my gut in a situation like that, I am getting better at this bigger picture scenario and timing the trades.

we are testing strong support on the dailies, and techies taking profit dead on the 21-DMA. should prove a tough area...
  • #1,816
  • Jun 10, 2011 2:23pm Jun 10, 2011 2:23pm
isn't H&S exactly what OF looks to trade against at least in theory? I'm confused
  • #1,817
  • Edited 2:53pm Jun 10, 2011 2:28pm | Edited 2:53pm
who said that? I thought 'Order Flow Trading' was, generally speaking (as there is a lot to it), predicting traders and profiting from there orders... future orders and inefficiencies in microstructure processes. H&S alone means nothing... but when they are forming on longer TF charts at extremes in sentiment/expectations and taking other info into account... this would be different story in my book.
  • #1,818
  • Jun 10, 2011 3:17pm Jun 10, 2011 3:17pm
To me it was a clear sign to sell, so clear that once everyone jumps on board, there's loaded liquidity for the swing up...

I guess I was overestimating traders' awareness of the H&S / daily charts in general... ?
  • #1,819
  • Jun 10, 2011 3:38pm Jun 10, 2011 3:38pm
Heya guys,

Been travelling recently and still have a transatlantic leg to go, but I should be ready to go on Monday.

When I initially arrived from the flight and got home, I decided to check my platform to see the outcome of the ECB meeting. From the charts alone, I was like darn guess he just stated that inflation was being closely monitored again..but checking my newsfeed and he did come through as the expected hawk!

@RichFWebb,
Quote
To me it was a clear sign to sell, so clear that once everyone jumps on board, there's loaded liquidity for the swing up...

I guess I was overestimating traders' awareness of the H&S / daily charts in general... ?

Sure, it may have been a clear sign to sell for you, but not for those participants who were positioned in expectation of vigilance from Trichet. In any event, upon conforming to expectations, there is a combination of profit-taking from participants whose expectations have been met, as well as participants jumping in to establish positions. The profit-taking aspect was hard for me to rationalize initially, but I put myself in their shoes by initiating a position a week ago, and I can now identify with their feelings of wanting to book profits. In the event that the latter participants I discussed do not have stoplosses of the magnitude of 100s of pips, these individuals would have represented uninformed liquidity - in my humble opinion.

Why?

The market is focusing on both interest rates and periphery/Greek sovereign debt issues (I have typed that phrase SO many times over, I guess it's a good way to know for certain what's on the market's mind!). However, the next ECB meeting is in July, while the EU meeting at which the sovereign issues will be discussed is in the middle of June. Committing to a position now for July leaves one open to the order flow that the June meeting and issues surrounding it, will undoubtedly produce.

In conclusion I learned a lot from what transpired on Friday, particularly regarding expectations and timing and wrote it down on my notepad. The market really is an amazing creature! I see a very highly profitable trade in the coming month, due to the market 'brushing aside' the impending rate hike. I enjoy these types of trades.

Regards,
xXTrizzleXx
  • #1,820
  • Jun 10, 2011 4:08pm Jun 10, 2011 4:08pm
Thanks for the explanation T,

So you're saying the market started pricing in the expectation of the EU meeting and the rate hike for July, on June 7th..?

So if a favorable Greek situation and a rate hike are confirmed, eur is now available at a cheaper price.

If no rate hike, they still hold their shorts from early June, and can gain liquidity for a continued short move, from false market expectations..

Still trying to wrap my head around this one..
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