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vsa with Malcolm

  • #20,941
  • Jun 9, 2011 4:51pm Jun 9, 2011 4:51pm
Quoting Aad
Folks! Let's not forget common sense Support & Resistance, it was no mystery as to what SM might try to do...
Easy to draw such a channel after the big move has occured! Even me now I can see what SM was doing, but how to guess when it is right happening?
  • #20,942
  • Jun 9, 2011 4:58pm Jun 9, 2011 4:58pm
Quoting Trader_X
heres the trade i took today....i missed the big drop but..after the run the trend is clearly down so at my skill level i wouldnt even think about a long trade until i saw price move up, come back down and test..then id need to see some other form of strength..so short or nothing for today!!! price retraced and the 30m TG showed ND , first chart! (im posting using MT4 cause i havent figured out how to post TG charts yet) Now i knew this was a riskyer trade because we had already had all that action and it was at lunch time(US)..chances are if it...
On my side I would have been more bullish after that down move. The last wide spread down bar is on very high volume and the next bar is up. As Gavin says: How could price move higher is SM was not buying on that big volume down bar?

Look! My thinking is completely the opposite of what it is!! :-((((((((((((((((((((((((((
  • #20,943
  • Jun 9, 2011 5:14pm Jun 9, 2011 5:14pm
no buddy your right, gavins right!..they were buying into that bar..price moved upward..my thinking was, at my very low vsa skill level, i would only trade with the trend!!! I , personally, wouldnt go long because i dont have that level of confidence!!! thats what i meant when i said i wouldnt consider a long postion(not without a whole lot more SOS) ...the trend is down so just to put that little bit of edge to my trade..i would only go short , TODAY! and only if after the retrace i saw a confirmed ND on a TF that was at least 30m (5m is not enough for a newbie like me)..which i did get ...the TOD(time of day ) was really enough for me to just stay away but i was pissed that i missed that move! and thats bad too..no trading when your pissed off!! bad, bad, bad!!! would any of the pros please consider commenting on my trade today! what could i have done better or different!...best regards, john
i can tell ya right now...i didnt have any supp/rest levels up and i proably shouldve waited for and upthrust or something..theres 2 mistakes right there that i made!!! i jumped on the first ND , at lunch time, after a huge move(which i missed), with no confirmation of the SOW...that does not soumd like a solid trade in hindsight now that i think about it!!!
  • #20,944
  • Jun 9, 2011 5:22pm Jun 9, 2011 5:22pm
Quoting dvarrin
Easy to draw such a channel after the big move has occured! Even me now I can see what SM was doing, but how to guess when it is right happening?
Classic H&S pattern as well as indications of weakness in volume.
The upbar before the drop had lower volume than the previous few bars, so i believe this was a shakeout.
Even though we are in a strong uptrend I still think we will test 1.4420 area.
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  • #20,945
  • Edited 5:38pm Jun 9, 2011 5:22pm | Edited 5:38pm
Quoting dvarrin
Easy to draw such a channel after the big move has occured! Even me now I can see what SM was doing, but how to guess when it is right happening?
No, disregard the channel (sorry I forgot to take it off, I'll re-upload) it's an auto multi-chart channel indicator. Only look at the vertical and horizontal lines and previous high activity/volume areas. These are areas that can dish out minimal risk trades as SM tries to catch traders off guard only to get their stops. I see this far too many times specially during news events, the old SM bait & switch...
  • #20,946
  • Jun 9, 2011 5:33pm Jun 9, 2011 5:33pm
heres the thing...after that last HV down bar..we get an up bar ..we know sm step and did some buying...but at my skill level if i had longed after 1 up bar , with that big of a drop, and the the next bar it dropped again, id of felt like an idiot for longing into such a bearish move!!! everybody else in the world is shorting , but me, im long!!LOL...i think you are looking for monodenomic signs, meaning if this happens then that will happen!..what pres was trying to say earlier, IMO, was it just isnt that way!!! the story is unfolding bar by bar ..and the story can and will change on you very quickly!!! ypu can get a ND and 3 bars later get a NS then a test and were off...it seems SM really likes to mix it up ..you can get a ND followed by an UT and it drop 20 pips and the shot to the moon..this is where i think dropping to a smaller TF to monitor your trade comes in handy..i did that today and if i hadnt i now see i would be almost Stopped out on BE!..going home, way to much posting today!! best to all...john
  • #20,947
  • Jun 9, 2011 6:26pm Jun 9, 2011 6:26pm
Quoting Trader_X
heres the trade i took today....i missed the big drop but..after the run the trend is clearly down so at my skill level i wouldnt even think about a long trade until i saw price move up, come back down and test..then id need to see some other form of strength..so short or nothing for today!!! price retraced and the 30m TG showed ND , first chart! (im posting using MT4 cause i havent figured out how to post TG charts yet) Now i knew this was a riskyer trade because we had already had all that action and it was at lunch time(US)..chances are if it...
Risky imo, support had come into the market (with those wide spread down bars and the prices going up afterwards) and the 1H chart was really showing accumulation. And at that time volumes usually dry out and it just goes sideways. Never expect big moves at that time.

But everyone, keep posting charts and your trades so we can all learn from them and see more set-ups
  • #20,948
  • Jun 9, 2011 6:54pm Jun 9, 2011 6:54pm
your right it was a higher risk trade...and i knew not to expect much..everything you pointed out is spot on!! thanks for the post....regards,john
  • #20,949
  • Jun 9, 2011 7:57pm Jun 9, 2011 7:57pm
New at this game. Looking into the vsa thread. Please do me a favor. Just simply define ND, TG, UT, IMO. Thx.
  • #20,950
  • Jun 9, 2011 8:36pm Jun 9, 2011 8:36pm
Quoting Maxwell FPC
New at this game. Looking into the vsa thread. Please do me a favor. Just simply define ND, TG, UT, IMO. Thx.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...ns#post3846324

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...23#post3864423

There's links to the full copy of Master The Markets around as well, which is really the prerequisite to taking on VSA - it in fact, is an excellent guide to markets, charting, and so much that is trading related.
  • #20,951
  • Jun 9, 2011 8:59pm Jun 9, 2011 8:59pm
Thank you. I will download the MTM book. Does this technique work well in forex?
  • #20,952
  • Jun 9, 2011 9:03pm Jun 9, 2011 9:03pm
Expecting a breakout to up side after 2 bar reversal engulfing out of dz
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  • #20,953
  • Jun 9, 2011 9:12pm Jun 9, 2011 9:12pm
Quoting Maxwell FPC
Thank you. I will download the MTM book. Does this technique work well in forex?
Google trendguider master the mkt.. And voila!!

Sonic
  • #20,954
  • Jun 9, 2011 10:58pm Jun 9, 2011 10:58pm
Do you know any broker who offers 6B and 6E demo contracts?


Quoting Beljevina
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...ns#post3846324

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...23#post3864423

There's links to the full copy of Master The Markets around as well, which is really the prerequisite to taking on VSA - it in fact, is an excellent guide to markets, charting, and so much that is trading related.
  • #20,955
  • Jun 10, 2011 1:35am Jun 10, 2011 1:35am
Quoting HiddenGap
Just a couple of things.

In my opinion, you should only be looking to take shorts. The trend is down and as Tom says, "a trend will remain in place longer than you think".

Once you see the ND, you place your sell stop just below the low of the bar. Ideally, the next bar will bring you into the market. YOU ARE THEREFORE IN THE TRADE BEFORE THE NEXT BAR CONFIRMS THE NO DEMAND. Since the comfirmation does not come, when it comes, until the close of the next interval.
This is what I don't understand HiddenGap. We saw a few wide spread down bars on very high volume showing some weakness. And at the bottom of the move we have an up bar showing some buying coming in. At this point VSA is giving SOS. Then What else are you using in your trading tools to say that we have to stay on the short side? Price action?, ...
  • #20,956
  • Jun 10, 2011 2:14am Jun 10, 2011 2:14am
There are few other things.
Where price is at the trading range, is there somekind of SR-level, has there been accumulation/distribution, was it short or long, if it was short, price cant move up/down very far, if it was long, price moves long.

pres78 has a very good advice in his signature: Never take a trade, that you don`t understand!
  • #20,957
  • Jun 10, 2011 2:47am Jun 10, 2011 2:47am
Quoting juhanimi
There are few other things.
Where price is at the trading range, is there somekind of SR-level, has there been accumulation/distribution, was it short or long, if it was short, price cant move up/down very far, if it was long, price moves long.

pres78 has a very good advice in his signature: Never take a trade, that you don`t understand!
Ty Juhanimi!
  • #20,958
  • Edited 3:26am Jun 10, 2011 3:12am | Edited 3:26am
1000 posts
Week ago in news, now 250 pips down.

Bernanke Wants a Weaker Dollar, Buy the Euro: Currency Fund Manager

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/break...164404071.html

Bernanke speaking arrow.
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  • #20,959
  • Jun 10, 2011 3:26am Jun 10, 2011 3:26am
Quoting juhanimi
1000 posts
Week ago in news, now 250 pips down.

Bernanke Wants a Weaker Dollar, Buy the Euro: Currency Fund Manager

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/break...164404071.html
The Sneaky bastards.
  • #20,960
  • Jun 10, 2011 3:36am Jun 10, 2011 3:36am
price has been back to 21 March level.
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