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Silent Service Method

  • #12,501
  • Jun 8, 2011 9:43pm Jun 8, 2011 9:43pm
New blog post w/ video on the blog
  • #12,502
  • Jun 9, 2011 1:37am Jun 9, 2011 1:37am
Hi Chris, I am reading this thread from the 1st post and am absolutely thrilled with the quality thereof. Just watched your latest video and I am so greatful for your unselfish contribution on this forum.

Please keep up the good work!

Pete
PS. Eagerly awaiting the new website!
  • #12,503
  • Jun 9, 2011 2:12am Jun 9, 2011 2:12am
Hi guys. I have read the first 100 pages of this thread and intend to start demo trading this method very soon. Would anyone be kind enough to post there results trading this method? eg win rate, average r:r, number of trades per month etc.

It would be a good benchmark and a shot of confidence to us newbies starting out!
  • #12,504
  • Jun 9, 2011 3:20am Jun 9, 2011 3:20am
Quoting clockwork71
Could be. But the trend is certainly up - so buying is the correct way to go. If you stick with the trend, you will begin to notice your entries can be a little more "sloppy", meaning you don't have to get it completely right to the pip.
I'm starting to think this may be one to monitor on the weekly chart.

The weekly chart shows a break of the upper channel line albeit not parallel (equidistant) with the lower trendline.

On the daily you can clearly see consolidation around the upper line and the 0.82 level and it's now moving upwards away from it.

It hadn't moved much over night so I took the plunge on a small position after I read your post, no big numbers involved. Let's see how it works out.

Edit: Although the fib retrace/extension is drawn on a big move up with only a shallow retrace my thoughts are that if it breaks the recent resistance levels with momentum then it will probably keep going with some force to the extension levels drawn. We're breaking new ground here.
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  • #12,505
  • Jun 9, 2011 6:53am Jun 9, 2011 6:53am
Nzdusd is testing the highs as we speak. It's make or, er, break time. Or rather break or not. It has actually made new all time highs within the last few minutes but whether this will mean a move higher or not time will tell.
  • #12,506
  • Jun 9, 2011 6:59am Jun 9, 2011 6:59am
Chris, reading through the thread and noticed that it was your birthday on Monday. Congrats and many happy returns!

Pete
  • #12,507
  • Jun 9, 2011 7:16am Jun 9, 2011 7:16am
Quoting Hugh Briss
Nzdusd is testing the highs as we speak. It's make or, er, break time. Or rather break or not. It has actually made new all time highs within the last few minutes but whether this will mean a move higher or not time will tell.
The fundamental story - as I understand it - is that the Chinese are buying Kiwi bonds, and that is one of the reasons the currency keeps rising. If that's the case - then it certainly will keep rising over time.
  • #12,508
  • Jun 9, 2011 7:16am Jun 9, 2011 7:16am
Quoting pete123
Chris, reading through the thread and noticed that it was your birthday on Monday. Congrats and many happy returns!

Pete
Thanks Pete! Turned......40. Ugh.
  • #12,509
  • Jun 9, 2011 7:27am Jun 9, 2011 7:27am
Quoting clockwork71
The fundamental story - as I understand it - is that the Chinese are buying Kiwi bonds, and that is one of the reasons the currency keeps rising. If that's the case - then it certainly will keep rising over time.
Reading into it exports from NZ to China are rising dramatically and set to keep rising for wool, dairy and some raw materials. Does it not make perfect sense for China to buy into an economy that they are going to be enriching with lots of export money? On the other hand though if the result of that is that the currency rises they pay more for their imports then it doesn't make sense, unless the Chinese are heavily long NZD anyway? Fundamentals are always complicated, I'm glad the chart says buy!
  • #12,510
  • Jun 9, 2011 1:31pm Jun 9, 2011 1:31pm
Eurcad is interesting at 1.43 but maybe a pull back to 1.40 for a buy may be the better way to go?
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  • #12,511
  • Jun 9, 2011 4:54pm Jun 9, 2011 4:54pm
Quoting Hugh Briss
Eurcad is interesting at 1.43 but maybe a pull back to 1.40 for a buy may be the better way to go?
When I see a chart like that, I look for two things:

A) A break out and pullback testing the resistance (break out point) and confirming it as support.

or

B) A pullback to one of the other support levels and see if I see a hammer or Bullish Outside Bar or the like to buy it at lower prices.
  • #12,512
  • Jun 9, 2011 11:31pm Jun 9, 2011 11:31pm
How about this one... This is pretty amazing:

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-cont...s-to-Buy-4.gif

I think that wage is a bit low. Isn't the median income something like $50,000/yr? So that would be about $25/hr, which would mean 62hrs to buy 1oz of gold... But this could be right in which case gold seems a bit pricey...

There are a few other charts they posted about Oil & Commodities as well that are also pretty cool: Link
  • #12,513
  • Jun 10, 2011 7:35am Jun 10, 2011 7:35am
Quoting InfinitySL
How about this one... This is pretty amazing:

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-cont...s-to-Buy-4.gif

I think that wage is a bit low. Isn't the median income something like $50,000/yr? So that would be about $25/hr, which would mean 62hrs to buy 1oz of gold... But this could be right in which case gold seems a bit pricey...

There are a few other charts they posted about Oil & Commodities as well that are also pretty cool: Link...

Thanks for this link, it is always good to look at the general picture outside of the pairs in order to get a real idea of what is going on in the economy. A lot of the newsletters I get focus on stuff like this, and while I don't use it as a specific trading signal, but a backdrop on determining the future direction of the markets.
  • #12,514
  • Jun 10, 2011 11:43am Jun 10, 2011 11:43am
EUR/USD and EUR/CHF are the two most important charts at the moment. If the EUR/CHF falls to new lows - we are going to see another leg down in the global pictur in my view, as money flows into the safe haven trade....
  • #12,515
  • Jun 11, 2011 12:09am Jun 11, 2011 12:09am
Not a ton of info.....but a general announcement at the blog on the "Coming Soon" page.
  • #12,516
  • Jun 12, 2011 11:13am Jun 12, 2011 11:13am
We all know that the EUR/CHF is in a downtrend, this much isn't news. But what I like about this chart is that there are dual hammers at the bottom of the recent consolidation range.

I won't buy this on a bounce, I will simply sell it when it gets to the top of the box. However, it should be noted that from the larger previous consolidation I had a target of 1.16 for this pair. Because of that, I will also sell if we break these hammers to the downside. Either scenario would be a great sell signal in my opinion.
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  • #12,517
  • Jun 12, 2011 12:11pm Jun 12, 2011 12:11pm
Isn't usdjpy in a similar situation? First chart is monthly zoomed out, second is daily zoomed out a little. 80 is providing serious support. The spike down was from the earthquake/tsunami. I've got sell stops on both of these pairs with sensible stops.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #12,518
  • Jun 12, 2011 12:30pm Jun 12, 2011 12:30pm
How about eurnzd at 1.74? Sunday is my fav day of the week, looking through the higher time frames to see what's going to happen in the following week. Aren't some of these charts beautiful to look at, it's like poetry.
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  • #12,519
  • Jun 12, 2011 6:44pm Jun 12, 2011 6:44pm
Quoting Hugh Briss
Isn't usdjpy in a similar situation? First chart is monthly zoomed out, second is daily zoomed out a little. 80 is providing serious support. The spike down was from the earthquake/tsunami. I've got sell stops on both of these pairs with sensible stops.
As long as you are aware that the 5 central banks are waiting below, you will be fine I guess. I personally am ignoring the Yen at the moment.
  • #12,520
  • Jun 12, 2011 6:45pm Jun 12, 2011 6:45pm
Quoting Hugh Briss
How about eurnzd at 1.74? Sunday is my fav day of the week, looking through the higher time frames to see what's going to happen in the following week. Aren't some of these charts beautiful to look at, it's like poetry.

The NZD certainly has been bid well lately, and the EUR is falling - so this chart makes perfect sense.
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