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Higher low, lower high system

  • #4,201
  • Jun 2, 2011 8:24am Jun 2, 2011 8:24am
Quoting Ian
Vantage, hope flu is on the wane now.

I missed this but wondered if you would have taken/considered GU sell at 8.20 UK time.

1 hr was solid lower close but still within overnight range. 15 min was pos close inside bar which failed to break higher. 5 min lh closing at day's open.

Easy to say but in retrospect I might have taken a sell just below most recent support at 6325 (also below MS1/yest low/poc combo) on failure of 15 min bar, possibly exiting after high volume doji which failed to break lower for +10-15.

Attachment
Hi Ian
Feeling much better today and I'm sure I'll be back tomorrow with Mrs V prob back Monday.

I think I prob would have taken that one. 6345 ish became a clear SR area from Asian highs and the 15 min upper wicks when it tried to go above 6350 should have given a good clue for move down in line with 1hr. 1hr still on lh, ll's, the low of the 15 min pos close was taken out by the 5 min lh with little/no lower wick.

Would have also definitely exited when 6300 wasn't getting touched and it looks like the high vol POC 6311 was coming into play.
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  • #4,202
  • Jun 2, 2011 8:50am Jun 2, 2011 8:50am
Quoting Vantage
Hi Ian
Feeling much better today and I'm sure I'll be back tomorrow with Mrs V prob back Monday.

I think I prob would have taken that one. 6345 ish became a clear SR area from Asian highs and the 15 min upper wicks when it tried to go above 6350 should have given a good clue for move down in line with 1hr. 1hr still on lh, ll's, the low of the 15 min pos close was taken out by the 5 min lh with little/no lower wick.

Would have also definitely exited when 6300 wasn't getting touched and it looks like the high vol POC 6311 was coming into play.
Thanks for expanding on that.

The other trade I left was the hl at 10.30. No excuse I was in front of the charts at the time but just a bit wary after news driven push up. 1hr was strongly up with news then two 15 min dojis, the second one an inside bar, and a 5 min hl close above the 75 psych level. Pivot was quite close but that didn't stop me yesterday.

Turned into a nice 85/15 trade with MR1 a nice target after the RN gave way.

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Follow, don't anticipate.
  • #4,203
  • Jun 2, 2011 4:51pm Jun 2, 2011 4:51pm
Quoting Vantage
Hi Ian
Feeling much better today and I'm sure I'll be back tomorrow with Mrs V prob back Monday.
Does this mean autobank indicator temporarily not working?

Quoting Vantage
I think I prob would have taken that one. 6345 ish became a clear SR area from Asian highs and the 15 min upper wicks when it tried to go above 6350 should have given a good clue for move down in line with 1hr. 1hr still on lh, ll's, the low of the 15 min pos close was taken out by the 5 min lh with little/no lower wick.
Very good thank you, I didn't register that at the time - will be paying more attention to scenarios like that in future.

Quoting Vantage
Would have also definitely exited when 6300 wasn't getting touched and it looks like the high vol POC 6311 was coming into play.
I noticed subsequently that this level was also daily resistance from 17th and 20th May now become support.
Follow, don't anticipate.
  • #4,204
  • Jun 3, 2011 3:41am Jun 3, 2011 3:41am
NFP day was a big yawn and with 20 mins to go before UK news I wasn't watching the charts.

This example is one of the "why would you have considered that trade" trade. Well its the 1st of the potential moves down that had system suggesting sell. 1hr closed neg, 15 moves from lower wick doji's/hammers to a neg close.

Hindsight is a wonderful thing but when the 1hr and 15 min lined up the move happened.

Anyway like I said I wasn't watching, perhaps a mistake, Mrs V loves the first 15 mins in a new 1hr candle for trades. On NFP day 20 mins before news with sideways yawn pa I'll get away with this one.

I'm surprisingly knackered so will prob make some tea and try and get the last of the flu out of the system.

I have pivot at 6364, it'll be interesting to see if pa moves there again on nfp day.
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  • #4,205
  • Jun 3, 2011 4:04am Jun 3, 2011 4:04am
Quoting Vantage
NFP day was a big yawn and with 20 mins to go before UK news I wasn't watching the charts.

This example is one of the "why would you have considered that trade" trade. Well its the 1st of the potential moves down that had system suggesting sell. 1hr closed neg, 15 moves from lower wick doji's/hammers to a neg close.

Hindsight is a wonderful thing but when the 1hr and 15 min lined up the move happened.

Anyway like I said I wasn't watching, perhaps a mistake, Mrs V loves the first 15 mins in a new 1hr candle for trades. On NFP day 20 mins...
Morning Vantage, yes, typical that the one day this week I can watch charts uninterrupted by day job is the day that nothing happens.

I didn't spot that move and even if I had prob would have left due to impending PMI but it's interesting how the 15 min bars give the game away yet again.

Also interesting where the move down reversed, right where the LO move down yesterday failed, just above RN and today's S1.

I'll be looking out for move to pivot as well.

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Follow, don't anticipate.
  • #4,206
  • Jun 3, 2011 7:49am Jun 3, 2011 7:49am
Quoting Ian
I'll be looking out for move to pivot as well.
Pre-NFP trade. 1 hr closed as pos inside bar. I would have preferred a higher close above S1/poc combo but was influenced by possibility of move to pivot.

15 min was a hammer rejection of RN and yest low (blue solid line) on increasing volume. Again would have liked a higher close.

5 min hammer entry just below POC/S1 combo at 6312. Price then consolidated around this level for about 30 mins which was a concern but then moved up to MS1. Out for +16 when this level held just before New York Open.

Looking back I think this was a fairly aggressive trade and one I possibly would have left normally. Although it was off an established support level the 1 hr still closed weakly and well below the 8lwma. If there had been clear divergence that would have given extra confidence.

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Follow, don't anticipate.
  • #4,207
  • Jun 3, 2011 9:24am Jun 3, 2011 9:24am
Quoting Ian
Pre-NFP trade. 1 hr closed as pos inside bar. I would have preferred a higher close above S1/poc combo but was influenced by possibility of move to pivot.

15 min was a hammer rejection of RN and yest low (blue solid line) on increasing volume. Again would have liked a higher close.

5 min hammer entry just below POC/S1 combo at 6312. Price then consolidated around this level for about 30 mins which was a concern but then moved up to MS1. Out for +16 when this level held just before New York Open.

Looking back I think this was a fairly...
I wouldn't be so hard on yourself, those lower wicks on 1hr showed pa struggled below Y's low. Whilst the move to pivot did happen (yet again, well OK a few pips short) I would have also struggled to hold in for that given the reaction at M2 6336.

I reckon good trade.
  • #4,208
  • Jun 3, 2011 9:58am Jun 3, 2011 9:58am
Quoting Vantage
I wouldn't be so hard on yourself, those lower wicks on 1hr showed pa struggled below Y's low. Whilst the move to pivot did happen (yet again, well OK a few pips short) I would have also struggled to hold in for that given the reaction at M2 6336.

I reckon good trade.
Thanks, Vantage - I'm loving this method more and more each day.

Look where price went, eventually - what a surprise!!

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Follow, don't anticipate.
  • #4,209
  • Jun 7, 2011 5:46am Jun 7, 2011 5:46am
All Mrs V this am.

GU 1hr solidly up above its 8 lwma. MA's on 15 and 5 min clearly show the trend. I suppose one of those mornings where an entry could have gotten you right into the reversal situation but these are 100% system trades following 1hr.

1st set up gu did have a small 15 shooting star, no follow through lower and the 5 min hl hammer little/no upper wick took out top of 15 min SS.

Switched over to eur and tried that hl but for whatever reason couldn't get in, see the x.

Switched back to gu, 15 min hammer, 5 min hl little/no upper wick, 6415 level/W pivot held entry on move above 25 level.
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  • #4,210
  • Jun 7, 2011 5:51am Jun 7, 2011 5:51am
Quoting Vantage
All Mrs V this am.

GU 1hr solidly up above its 8 lwma. MA's on 15 and 5 min clearly show the trend. I suppose one of those mornings where an entry could have gotten you right into the reversal situation but these are 100% system trades following 1hr.

1st set up gu did have a small 15 shooting star, no follow through lower and the 5 min hl hammer little/no upper wick took out top of 15 min SS.

Switched over to eur and tried that hl but for whatever reason couldn't get in, see the x.

Switched back to gu, 15 min hammer, 5 min hl little/no upper...
Oh there was a lower high on gu when the big upper wick on 1hr at Y's high/pivots suggested a problem. Mrs V prefers the trend trades over the hl/lh's at extremes and didn't want to risk pips after such a good morning.

No problem!!
  • #4,211
  • Jun 7, 2011 9:36am Jun 7, 2011 9:36am
Was in front of the computer but not watching the charts, stupid, easy 100% trade missed.

1hr hammer right on the rising 8 lwma. 15 min hl in itself, 5 min hl little/no upper wick.

I was out at shops for the following move up.
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  • #4,212
  • Jun 8, 2011 1:07am Jun 8, 2011 1:07am
Daily has strong close moving up from 38% fib. Y US session couldn't make any headway setting up for a poss move down. Either way trading right side of 1hr 8 lwma should keep us out of trouble.

We have a bit of a storm here (very unusual in winter normally clear skys) so if it doesn't clear I'll switch off and come back later. Mrs V made the tea and toast and has already disappeared for a snooze.
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  • #4,213
  • Jun 8, 2011 6:48am Jun 8, 2011 6:48am
Great thred and your blog spot.. am slowly reading throu..
  • #4,214
  • Jun 8, 2011 7:20am Jun 8, 2011 7:20am
Quoting danc
Great thred and your blog spot.. am slowly reading throu..
Welcome here, just shout in need.
  • #4,215
  • Jun 8, 2011 4:16pm Jun 8, 2011 4:16pm
Hi Vantage,

I've been looking at some old posts on this thread.

At --
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...108544&page=62
post #920
there's an indicator in the bottom window that gives the status of closes on H1, M15, M5 candles. There's no name there. so, I couldn't search.

I also came across references to a bullseye indicator.

Could you attach the latest version of both these indicator mq4 files please...

Thanks.

PS
I don't see you using either of them now. any reason?
  • #4,216
  • Jun 8, 2011 9:10pm Jun 8, 2011 9:10pm
Hi Vantage,
I've read entire thread now and have a couple of questions, if you don't mind.
1. For your system trades, does the hourly need to be above 8 lwma to consider longs.
2. Have your results been acceptable during New York A.M. session. I am only available to trade 0800 to 1200 EST.
  • #4,217
  • Jun 9, 2011 3:25am Jun 9, 2011 3:25am
Hi Vantage,

Pl see attached M5 chart where the H1 and M15 candles are visible in the background.

1. The -ve close M15 candle is part of the H1 candle. Is this ok?
2. Is the short entry marked on the b/o of the M15 candle ok OR does the LH actually need to be a minimum 3-bar minitop?

Thanks.
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  • #4,218
  • Jun 9, 2011 10:18am Jun 9, 2011 10:18am
Quoting pgd
Hi Vantage,

I've been looking at some old posts on this thread.

At --
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...108544&page=62
post #920
there's an indicator in the bottom window that gives the status of closes on H1, M15, M5 candles. There's no name there. so, I couldn't search.

I also came across references to a bullseye indicator.

Could you attach the latest version of both these indicator mq4 files please...

Thanks.

PS
I don't see you using either of them now. any reason?
Sorry been tied up for the day moving my 80 year old mother in law in, knackered. I'm on my 3rd computer since those days and will get for you.
  • #4,219
  • Jun 9, 2011 11:08am Jun 9, 2011 11:08am
Quoting bparks
Hi Vantage,
I've read entire thread now and have a couple of questions, if you don't mind.
1. For your system trades, does the hourly need to be above 8 lwma to consider longs.
2. Have your results been acceptable during New York A.M. session. I am only available to trade 0800 to 1200 EST.
Welcome.

I have been trading US session more and more of late and results are still good.

I use 8 lwma as it gives a good, simple idea of short term trend as the charts show. If you have good candles that show a reversal thats a trade even if 8 lwma hasn't yet lined up. This happened this morning on GU in UK session where a long wick (at the high from the 7th and high vol POC line at 6463) was followed by a large wick doji. Good candles, supp/res areas trumps all.

US session can sometimes go into a sideways funk. Can get seriously burnt in chop with small stops. That'll hit any short term method though. I'm also aware that in and around London close price can reverse. Of course when US goes it can go really nicely. Apologies if this is obvious stuff that you are aware of.

I'm always watching for wicks and reaction. GU shows 2 great examples of upper wicks suggesting a turn. EUR shows 2 examples of lower wicks hinting at London close turn possibilities. All the above are against the 8 lwma.

So 100% system trades are 1hr, 15 min and 5 min, if 8 lwma confirming all the better. I won't pass on a good set up if lwma is not quite confirming. I am aware though that price can move aggressively away from any ma giving chance for a reversal but once pa moved through the lwma odds are pretty good in my favour.

Lots of price action candle traders ditch all ma's. You could do that, or keep just accepting the shortfalls of a ma and when to go against (wicks, SR areas, time of day).

I hope this clarifies.
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  • #4,220
  • Jun 9, 2011 11:31am Jun 9, 2011 11:31am
Quoting pgd
Hi Vantage,

Pl see attached M5 chart where the H1 and M15 candles are visible in the background.

1. The -ve close M15 candle is part of the H1 candle. Is this ok?
2. Is the short entry marked on the b/o of the M15 candle ok OR does the LH actually need to be a minimum 3-bar minitop?

Thanks.
Hi pg
If you have a lower high as in this case when the 15 min closes and its the last 15 min candle in an hourly close that's fine its a trade. We have lots of them.

3 bar mini top is fine, hl/lh and double tops/bottoms all good. If I've got doubts I'll wait for 15 min to close. If it runs and I miss trade tough luck. In this case the double top and neg close 5 min candle took out the low of the 15 min small hammer so I might not have waited for the 15 min to close.
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