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Price is everything

  • #19,021
  • Jun 8, 2011 12:36pm Jun 8, 2011 12:36pm
Quoting biDc
Took this last night before I went to bed. Long off the hourly demand. Woke up happy

http://www.hotstockmarket.com/image/...t/500/flags/LL
welldone!

im just curious why no one wanted to sell at these beautiful supplys? they all saw trendline break and jumped long?

thanks in advance ) miky
--Be in the NOW or get lost in time.--
  • #19,022
  • Jun 8, 2011 12:59pm Jun 8, 2011 12:59pm
Quoting biDc
Great advice! That's one of the biggest problem I struggled with in my earlier days and it's still an inner demon that comes out from time to time. Every signal seems to be "a nice trigger" until I realize that there IS a difference between long signals (A+++, A++, etc signal). The goal now is NOT to take all long signals but to be EXTREMELY SELECTIVE.

BTW whats OTA?
The things that help me most, personally, are very specific. I plan trades ahead of time and write them down, and I make particular note of what I think price will do at certain levels and how to respond accordingly, that is what is most crucial, because then you can set price alerts and all of a sudden you have the magic ability to only trade good levels.

I reduce my exposure and my risk if too much time is passing without a strong move. This has dramatically helped my average reward v average risk. Once my risk is gone then I set price alerts for both my SL and my TP and do something else to remove myself from the equation.

Might not work for everybody but these are the things that have really impacted my monthly return, just wanted to share them because over trading used to be a big problem.

Edit:

I forgot to mention targets, I like to enter on M5 or M15 bars, so I'll generally shoot for the strongest opposing level that gives me a minimum of 2:1 reward:risk. When I say 2:1 r:r I'm really focused on profit margin and I'm saying that 2:1 is an absolute minimum requirement for me to take a trade. The way you minimize your risk (closing half at 1:1 or trailing stop to BE as price moves-also being able to close a trade that's not going your way in the expected time) during a trade the better your avgR:avgR which is what impacts your monthly return.
  • #19,023
  • Jun 8, 2011 1:07pm Jun 8, 2011 1:07pm
Quoting biDc
Great advice! That's one of the biggest problem I struggled with in my earlier days and it's still an inner demon that comes out from time to time. Every signal seems to be "a nice trigger" until I realize that there IS a difference between long signals (A+++, A++, etc signal). The goal now is NOT to take all long signals but to be EXTREMELY SELECTIVE.

BTW whats OTA?
Online Trading Academy. Sam Seiden is the director of education at OTA. I prefer classroom training and I have lifetime Forex webinars every week with Sam Seiden and other instructors. In my eyes worth every penny!
  • #19,024
  • Jun 8, 2011 1:12pm Jun 8, 2011 1:12pm
got stopped out breakeven ..




Quoting mangalesh
moved my sl to breakeven since it convered 2/3 of the price...
Trading is all about probability, low risk/high reward ,buy low/sell high
  • #19,025
  • Jun 8, 2011 1:38pm Jun 8, 2011 1:38pm
Quoting bbakker
Online Trading Academy. Sam Seiden is the director of education at OTA. I prefer classroom training and I have lifetime Forex webinars every week with Sam Seiden and other instructors. In my eyes worth every penny!
Oh I see. I truly enjoy the webinars provided by Sam Seiden on fxstreet and they have been eye opening. I always wanted to sign up for his classes but as a broke college student it isn't much of a possibility at the moment...maybe sometime in the future BTW are there other resources that I can look up for this specific trading methodology? Aside from this already great thread of course

Quoting frankkn
The things that help me most, personally, are very specific. I plan trades ahead of time and write them down, and I make particular note of what I think price will do at certain levels and how to respond accordingly, that is what is most crucial, because then you can set price alerts and all of a sudden you have the magic ability to only trade good levels.

I reduce my exposure and my risk if too much time is passing without a strong move. This has dramatically helped my average reward v average risk. Once my risk is gone then I set price alerts...
That's a great write up! Always have a plan and trade the plan. If I look at a chart too many times I start seeing many different things and confuse myself in the long run. Since I trade in the higher time frame, I am trying to make it a goal to only look at the daily chart once a week at the close!
  • #19,026
  • Jun 8, 2011 1:57pm Jun 8, 2011 1:57pm
Quoting biDc
Oh I see. I truly enjoy the webinars provided by Sam Seiden on fxstreet and they have been eye opening. I always wanted to sign up for his classes but as a broke college student it isn't much of a possibility at the moment...maybe sometime in the future BTW are there other resources that I can look up for this specific trading methodology? Aside from this already great thread of course
Unfortunately, fxstreet is the only resource. To get the full monty, you have to join OTA, although this thread and there are a couple of other threads on FF that provide plenty of information.

Sam Seiden's style is that he does not wait for confirmation. He knows which levels work and which won't hold... but with more than 20 years of experience, it comes as no surprise.
  • #19,027
  • Jun 8, 2011 2:08pm Jun 8, 2011 2:08pm
Quoting Miky
welldone!

im just curious why no one wanted to sell at these beautiful supplys? they all saw trendline break and jumped long?

thanks in advance ) miky
Momentum... just look at that momentum. Going short at those supply levels is akin to jumping in from of a speeding train. Wait for the market to show its hand!

There are no shortcuts... screentime, thousand of hours of screentime.

1st trade of the day... I couldn't resist... it met my criteria, hit the buy button and went to put the girls to bed. Come back to see it nicely in profit... let's see how this one pans out. Market close in 2 hrs, and I usually don't keep them open overnight!

Taken some off the table at roughtly 1:1 and I will tighten the stops now.

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  • #19,028
  • Jun 8, 2011 2:18pm Jun 8, 2011 2:18pm
Quoting Miky
welldone!

im just curious why no one wanted to sell at these beautiful supplys? they all saw trendline break and jumped long?

thanks in advance ) miky
As bbaker said, momentum. This jump in price corresponded with OPEC leaders failing to come to an agreement on increasing oil output. The news changed the fundamentals and therefore this was more of a fundamental move than a technical.
  • #19,029
  • Jun 8, 2011 2:29pm Jun 8, 2011 2:29pm
Quoting wh92stang
As bbaker said, momentum. This jump in price corresponded with OPEC leaders failing to come to an agreement on increasing oil output. The news changed the fundamentals and therefore this was more of a fundamental move than a technical.


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On top of that inventory numbers also helped it up. As you know, the supply of oil inventories going down = price going up. As you stated, this was a pure fundamental move! Supply and demand... elementary my dear Watson
  • #19,030
  • Jun 8, 2011 2:33pm Jun 8, 2011 2:33pm
Quoting bbakker
Unfortunately, fxstreet is the only resource. To get the full monty, you have to join OTA, although this thread and there are a couple of other threads on FF that provide plenty of information.

Sam Seiden's style is that he does not wait for confirmation. He knows which levels work and which won't hold... but with more than 20 years of experience, it comes as no surprise.
Yeah I figured that's pretty much his style of trading. I guess I have sometime before I get that form of mastery

One problem I struggle with in trading the higher time frame is that waiting for a confirmation in the daily time frame and make me lose a lot of potential profits (ie. engulfing bars) and making it somewhat difficult to place a stop-loss at the right place that is more accustomed to my risk.

With that, I decided to wait for price to hit S/D zones in daily time frame and pick and entry off the hourly chart instead. So far it's been working well but at times when I see a two strong demand close to each other or supply close to each other I have conflicting decision as to which area to watch for. More practice
  • #19,031
  • Jun 8, 2011 2:36pm Jun 8, 2011 2:36pm
Quoting biDc
...So far it's been working well but at times when I see a two strong demand close to each other or supply close to each other I have conflicting decision as to which area to watch for. More practice
Practice makes perfect, although you will never find perfection in the markets... it doesn't exist, just like the holy grail!
  • #19,032
  • Jun 8, 2011 2:36pm Jun 8, 2011 2:36pm
Here's a trade that I just got stopped out from. I was wondering what you guys think about my decision to go long here. I entered off the IPB confluenced with the 150EMA support in the demand zone. I guess one can say this demand zone isn't particularly strong since it's more of a rally-base-rally as opposed to a drop-base-rally.
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  • #19,033
  • Jun 8, 2011 2:38pm Jun 8, 2011 2:38pm
Quoting biDc
Here's a trade that I just got stopped out from. I was wondering what you guys think about my decision to go long here. I entered off the IPB confluenced with the 150EMA support in the demand zone. I guess one can say this demand zone isn't particularly strong since it's more of a rally-base-rally as opposed to a drop-base-rally.
You just answered that yourself
  • #19,034
  • Jun 8, 2011 2:45pm Jun 8, 2011 2:45pm
Quoting bbakker
You just answered that yourself
I do have a question though. In some of the webinars by Sam Seiden I see him use S/D zones from rally-base-rally or drop-base-drop. How does one decide as to whether or not to utilize it or not or is it highly preferential and up to one's risk tolerance?
  • #19,035
  • Jun 8, 2011 2:51pm Jun 8, 2011 2:51pm
Quoting biDc
I do have a question though. In some of the webinars by Sam Seiden I see him use S/D zones from rally-base-rally or drop-base-drop. How does one decide as to whether or not to utilize it or not or is it highly preferential and up to one's risk tolerance?
Out of respect for OTA and the grads, I cannot answer that directly, but I have given plenty of clues in my last few thousand posts
  • #19,036
  • Jun 8, 2011 2:54pm Jun 8, 2011 2:54pm
Hello to all,

this is my first post here. Thanks to all, for sharing there experience and knowledge.

I just took a long on Eu/Us. For my view the pair reached a demand zone. Any comments for the trade?

Hope it works out.

Thanks!!!
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  • #19,037
  • Jun 8, 2011 3:02pm Jun 8, 2011 3:02pm
Quoting kingpinnn
Hello to all,
this is my first post here. Thanks to all, for sharing there experience and knowledge.

I just took a long on Eu/Us. For my view the pair reached a demand zone. Any comments for the trade?

Hope it works out.

Thanks!!!
Are you looking over my shoulder?
  • #19,038
  • Jun 8, 2011 3:08pm Jun 8, 2011 3:08pm
Quoting kingpinnn
Hello to all,

this is my first post here. Thanks to all, for sharing there experience and knowledge.

I just took a long on Eu/Us. For my view the pair reached a demand zone. Any comments for the trade?

Hope it works out.

Thanks!!!
hey man,
i hvae already taken 30pips on a first bounce, lets see if it bounces again

happy trading miky
--Be in the NOW or get lost in time.--
  • #19,039
  • Jun 8, 2011 3:12pm Jun 8, 2011 3:12pm
I do my best .

I am watching Eur/Gbp as well. I think there should be two valid demand areas.

I think the second one should be safer for a counter trade.

We will see!
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  • #19,040
  • Jun 8, 2011 3:36pm Jun 8, 2011 3:36pm
Quoting biDc
Here's a trade that I just got stopped out from. I was wondering what you guys think about my decision to go long here. I entered off the IPB confluenced with the 150EMA support in the demand zone. I guess one can say this demand zone isn't particularly strong since it's more of a rally-base-rally as opposed to a drop-base-rally.
Price also dropped down to this demand level April 18th and rallied from it, relieving some demand in this zone. Price is now telling us that there is no more demand in this zone, so we go south to next demand area.

Since this demand zone was already touched (and rally base rally zone anyway), I would wait for confirmation in this zone. This is one Sam would probably skip. I'm not an OTA student, these are just my thoughts.
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