Order Flow - Achieving the mindset | Page 88 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Mindset Mindset Mindset!!! 19 replies

How to flow with the order flow? 26 replies

Maintain Your Mindset, by Linda Bradford Raschke 3 replies

Order Flow - Achieving the mindset - Part 2 37 replies

A new mindset 0 replies

Attachments: Order Flow - Achieving the mindset
Exit Attachments

Order Flow - Achieving the mindset

  • #1,741
  • Jun 7, 2011 3:44am Jun 7, 2011 3:44am
Eur/Aud on left. Eur/Cad on right.

http://i51.tinypic.com/2guvz7k.jpg
  • #1,742
  • Jun 7, 2011 11:21am Jun 7, 2011 11:21am
Quoting EmeraldEyes
Eur/Aud on left. Eur/Cad on right.

http://i51.tinypic.com/2guvz7k.jpg
Order vacuum, or price hitting a previous imbalance in the market coupled with an inventory grab? Food for thought.
  • #1,743
  • Jun 7, 2011 12:46pm Jun 7, 2011 12:46pm
Same event has happened on the GU. Usually want to see rejection from the imbalance to continue to hold. Imbalance/Inventory grab in action.
  • #1,744
  • Jun 7, 2011 8:21pm Jun 7, 2011 8:21pm
Quoting Benevolent
Same event has happened on the GU. Usually want to see rejection from the imbalance to continue to hold. Imbalance/Inventory grab in action.
Unloading some inventory into obvious stops on the GU now, the short worked out decent. Orderflow can be traded a million and a half ways guys, you just have to understand the mechanics to make a system out of it. Imbalance and inventory, imbalance and inventory.
  • #1,745
  • Jun 7, 2011 9:56pm Jun 7, 2011 9:56pm
anyway.....

how bout' that barrier...
  • #1,746
  • Jun 7, 2011 10:02pm Jun 7, 2011 10:02pm
Hey guys,

@Monroe: The barrier sure looks like it's going to be a tough cookie to crack, but I'm thinking it's lifespan won't last past Thursday Are you planning on playing it?

My contribution is regarding USD/JPY...I get the feeling we'll soon see some kind of nasty low-liquidity spike downwards, just enough to get BoJ's attention, and it will be March deja-vu. I will be paying very close attention to this pair.

Good to see everyone moulding things to suit their personalities. Hope to be here more often startin tonight.

Regards,
xXTrizzleXx
  • #1,747
  • Jun 7, 2011 10:08pm Jun 7, 2011 10:08pm
Yo what's up Trizzle....

yea seems like it was protected pretty heavily... however I think it's only a matter of time, my thoughts are tonight.

Yes, UJ is getting interesting... the pair confuses me I don't follow it too much but it's interesting at these levels.... I'm thinking they will test the BOJ and atleast get the stops under 79.50 (big exotic barrier level) ... the dollar is on the shitlist and Bernanke didn't giving a thrilling speech as I hear. I also hear real money is buying Yen the most right now... so i only see more downside. Think BOJ will make some comments soon?
  • #1,748
  • Jun 7, 2011 10:29pm Jun 7, 2011 10:29pm
Heya Monroe,

I read of abnormally huge stops below 79.20, so I'm thinking we'll see the barrier play at 79.50, a breather, and then when everything is calm a sharp overextended move using the 79.20 stops. Like you said, lots of Yen Buying, and I'm thinking it's because there are some USD/JPY longs who are waiting for the BoJ to provide the orderflow to carry their positions into profit. Now that Noda and company have stated they're closely watching the exchange rates, all these speculators have to do is provoke the gentle beast...

Regarding the EUR/USD barrier, I kinda felt that way too, so I have a little something at 1.4650 waiting to see what Frankfurt/London can produce.

Regards,
xXTrizzleXx
  • #1,749
  • Jun 7, 2011 10:38pm Jun 7, 2011 10:38pm
ahhh yes, I just read about those "very large" stops below 79.20 at fxlive. Also the Japan govt spokesperson on Reuters saying they are watching FX moves carefully.... from what I think I know, specs will test em'....

ps - I also had a little something at 4650... let's see how it plays out.
  • #1,750
  • Jun 7, 2011 10:52pm Jun 7, 2011 10:52pm
Quoting Monroe
ps - I also had a little something at 4650... let's see how it plays out.
Don't appreciate you stealing my liquidity...I've also had this problem with Tact1cal

Do you think Trichet will be the hawk the market wants to see Thursday?

Regards,
xXTrizzleXx
  • #1,751
  • Jun 7, 2011 10:54pm Jun 7, 2011 10:54pm
haha no worries my friend... there's enough room for both of us.

I am not sure about trichet... I'm going to say he will be dovish! cause no one is expecting that... but whatever the case I'll be ready... the data has good though so I guess there is no reason for him to be dovish. I am thinking maybe a bigger surprise may lie with the Greece situation still...
  • #1,752
  • Jun 8, 2011 2:28pm Jun 8, 2011 2:28pm
Quoting Monroe
haha no worries my friend... there's enough room for both of us.

I am not sure about trichet... I'm going to say he will be dovish! cause no one is expecting that... but whatever the case I'll be ready... the data has good though so I guess there is no reason for him to be dovish. I am thinking maybe a bigger surprise may lie with the Greece situation still...
Its kinda SOP for orderflow traders to be almost always being contrarians?

Cause there is't much left to deal with, if you'r on the general expectations side? and by catching other by surprise ur almost always are in for a nice and quick ride.

Thats how i approach things anyway.
.
  • #1,753
  • Jun 8, 2011 5:22pm Jun 8, 2011 5:22pm
Quoting nasir.khan
Its kinda SOP for orderflow traders to be almost always being contrarians?

Cause there is't much left to deal with, if you'r on the general expectations side? and by catching other by surprise ur almost always are in for a nice and quick ride.

Thats how i approach things anyway.
.
Say Trichet does signal further rate hikes, how much further will that take us? I would guess at least enough to fill that gap, possibly to 1.5 and more since the dollar is nowhere close to a rate hike... And a positive Greece plan by the 20th? What if something goes wrong there?
  • #1,754
  • Jun 8, 2011 7:51pm Jun 8, 2011 7:51pm
Quoting Monroe
Say Trichet does signal further rate hikes, how much further will that take us? I would guess at least enough to fill that gap, possibly to 1.5 and more since the dollar is nowhere close to a rate hike... And a positive Greece plan by the 20th? What if something goes wrong there?
Personally I don't think Trichet signalling a rate hike next month will get us to 1.5 - at least not unless there is also positive news on the Greek front. I'd be surprised if it takes us past 1.4850 by itself (though my level of surprise will depend on any new developments between now and then and where price is by then).
  • #1,755
  • Jun 8, 2011 7:59pm Jun 8, 2011 7:59pm
Quoting eurotrash
Personally I don't think Trichet signalling a rate hike next month will get us to 1.5 - at least not unless there is also positive news on the Greek front. I'd be surprised if it takes us past 1.4850 by itself (though my level of surprise will depend on any new developments between now and then and where price is by then).
yea... I agree, but like you said, we'll have to see what happens... I'll just play it as it goes...
  • #1,756
  • Jun 8, 2011 8:19pm Jun 8, 2011 8:19pm
so we're getting a range up here between the heavily protected barrier at 4700 and some technical support underneath and a trendline and maybe protection of stops under 1.4550. Players taking profit before the meeting, although I thought they would do so into the barrier, but weak German data last night allowing the drop through the 4640 stops along with further Greece talk as usual. I guess anything outside this range can be faded until the meeting, which you'll be looking for the vigilance keywords for a bull continuation or a sell off otherwise... thats my thoughts at this time.
  • #1,757
  • Jun 8, 2011 8:53pm Jun 8, 2011 8:53pm
Hey guys,

Quoting Monroe
Players taking profit before the meeting, although I thought they would do so into the barrier
Did some deep thinking today - the kind that gets you into and out of sleep while your mind is racing

Has anyone ever thought of barriers as having other uses besides their speculative pay-off? I have a hunch, which I initially blew off some months ago, but I keep encountering experiences where they actually seem like they can have uses depending on the market situation. Interestingly enough, there was a pesky barrier at 1.4900 last month which played out in a very similar manner. Keeping a journal is proving to be a very helpful exercise alongside trading in this manner.

I'm positioned for the hawkish rhetoric since last week, but will have to close out some of my nearer positions to book some profit and be on the ready to short if he decides to omit some choice wording. Either way tomorrow should be a money-making day for order flow traders everywhere.

And you know order flow is around the corner when eurotrash pops up!

Regards,
xXTrizzleXx
  • #1,758
  • Jun 8, 2011 8:59pm Jun 8, 2011 8:59pm
Quoting xXTrizzleXx
Hey guys,



Did some deep thinking today - the kind that gets you into and out of sleep while your mind is racing

Has anyone ever thought of barriers as having other uses besides their speculative pay-off? I have a hunch, which I initially blew off some months ago, but I keep encountering experiences where they actually seem like they can have uses depending on the market situation. Interestingly enough, there was a pesky barrier at 1.4900 last month which played out in a very similar manner. Keeping a journal is proving to be...
Yea, about the barriers, even if they get taken out, holders get paid on the defense of them very well if done successfully. I've also noticed the only time you'll see very heavy protection though is when they are near expirey (like the 4900 was I believe). So maybe the rumor can be used to get everyone to buy into them for liquidity on TP's for example? I don't know just a thought, China the other day warning about holding USD but then they are usually the big fans of barrier option plays... ACB's and a French bank are rumored trying to take it out... hearing of some middle east players in there as well.

where the orders are is no mystery, for example, ACB's touted buying at 4580-90 (just ahead of the trendline) so obviously they are looking at technicals, s/r like everyone else... and place there orders at and around them... also, ACB's always touted buying ahead of Ichimoku clouds and shit too.

but it cool is knowing about which players are engaging though...
  • #1,759
  • Jun 8, 2011 9:12pm Jun 8, 2011 9:12pm
Interesting...

Yeah I realized the heightened attention paid to the barriers when they are nearing expiry, but take for example the one at 1.4700, I don't think it's particularly near expiry, or at least I have no information to lead me to suspect that.

What if say eurotrash was a large speculator and he has good reason to believe that tomorrow Trichet will be a bull's best friend. He wants to accumulate a position of size, but also wants minimal market impact in doing so.

If he wrote up a barrier at 1.4700, each time he defended it, he would be able to build up size with each trip. Hunters/Writers would be incentivized to hunt said barrier, to prevent pay-off, but eurotrash wants to get a few hundred million in there. It creates a range where both participants are battling it out to get their interest. When the day comes, he can care less about the barrier; he loses the premium, but it was essentially the price he paid to build size before the move. It's the same thing I saw at 1.4950 ahead of the last ECB conference.

There's some logic loopholes, but it's just what I had on my mind so far..don't know where it may lead.

Regards,
xXTrizzleXx
  • #1,760
  • Jun 8, 2011 9:15pm Jun 8, 2011 9:15pm
Quoting xXTrizzleXx
Interesting...

Yeah I realized the heightened attention paid to the barriers when they are nearing expiry, but take for example the one at 1.4700, I don't think it's particularly near expiry, or at least I have no information to lead me to suspect that.

What if say eurotrash was a large speculator and he has good reason to believe that tomorrow Trichet will be a bull's best friend. He wants to accumulate a position of size, but also wants minimal market impact in doing so.

If he wrote up a barrier at 1.4700, each time he defended...
Yea, so basically used for accumulation or distribution purposes... makes sense, thats good thinking...
5 traders viewing now