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Price is everything

  • #18,961
  • Jun 7, 2011 10:38am Jun 7, 2011 10:38am
When trading commodities, I tend to pay attention to pure levels of supply and demand, and I rely less on support becomes resistance or resistance becomes support.

The area you show is right in the middle of supply and demand, which are clearly marked by the two areas i drawn. Those are simply the two ends of bearish and bullish engulfings.

Quoting MCFly
Hi emene,
do you observed the level I marked on the chart? When not...why?
Hello.
  • #18,962
  • Jun 7, 2011 12:06pm Jun 7, 2011 12:06pm
Quoting Orbital
Emene was probably well aware of that level but odds were this was more a flag based on the momentum it moved up at and where it moved up from. i bought within the flag.

Yes it was a supply level but there were no severe bearish reactions from it imo...
Thx for the answers guys.

@orbital: When price reached the supply level a bearish outside bar showed up. Okay it was not the best BEOB because the close could be lower (best under the wick of the prior candle). In this case it would be a bearish sign for me. The real demand came in when the hammer tested the bullish engulfing. Yes the momentum was up but I have seen red taking so many trades against good momentum.

I hope I'm not beating a dead horse.
  • #18,963
  • Jun 7, 2011 12:29pm Jun 7, 2011 12:29pm
Quoting MCFly
Thx for the answers guys.

@orbital: When price reached the supply level a bearish outside bar showed up. Okay it was not the best BEOB because the close could be lower (best under the wick of the prior candle). In this case it would be a bearish sign for me. The real demand came in when the hammer tested the bullish engulfing. Yes the momentum was up but I have seen red taking so many trades against good momentum.

I hope I'm not beating a dead horse.
Yes you are absolutely right in what you say. The issue here is though pertains to what timeframe you trade this on? Crude is a very particular beast on each and every timeframe. If you saw supply and its good supply, you can go short if youre trading on smaller timeframes, take the flag down that way and reenter once the flag is done.

What though if youre pursuing a larger goal? Say youre targeting 102.50? or 112 perhaps? Would you have exited this trade? Every trade is relative to the timeframe the trader takes it in, this one is no exception to it.
Analyzing price and price action is not enough, knowing your exits is important, and those will be different for all parties involved here
  • #18,964
  • Jun 7, 2011 12:33pm Jun 7, 2011 12:33pm
Heres my point in visual representation:

Just entered this trade, im already up 20 pips... which one do i take it out at?

1? for a scalp 2? 3? which seems a decent turning zone? or will i wait for the higher prices since my larger timeframe analysis has already determined that crude is most likely set to move up again?

See my point?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: crude.png Size: 21 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: crudesetups2.png Size: 26 KB


EDIT:

Which goes directly to the previous point. Entries are ALL the same, there is little to no discussion about entries, targets and exits and what you are aiming for or trying to achieve with your entry... now thats where the debate starts and begins for me
  • #18,965
  • Jun 7, 2011 12:57pm Jun 7, 2011 12:57pm
Quoting Orbital
Heres my point in visual representation:

Just entered this trade, im already up 20 pips... which one do i take it out at?

1? for a scalp 2? 3? which seems a decent turning zone? or will i wait for the higher prices since my larger timeframe analysis has already determined that crude is most likely set to move up again?
I'm interested in seeing how you handle your exits. Care to elaborate and teach us?
  • #18,966
  • Jun 7, 2011 1:02pm Jun 7, 2011 1:02pm
I only have time to trade two sessions per week, but I didn't take any trades today because I didn't see anything I liked enough.

For targets I like strong opposing M15 levels. The risk reward works its self out when you take good entries.
  • #18,967
  • Jun 7, 2011 1:13pm Jun 7, 2011 1:13pm
Ill be glad to help out sure, i have a bit of free time on my hands right now, just finishing up some paper work.

Picking exits always depends on the larger trend. There is an uptrendline on crude(theres also a larger downtrendline on one of brians charts), so naturally my targets are up. The larger term timeframes are all pointing upwards to me. So its really just about deciding which bottom i picked? You could have picked the 15m bottom, the 30m 1hr 4hr ? someitmes if youre lucky the daily

From there on its just a debate about how good the signal is, in my case i see the larger picture but i couldnt decide on an entry, so i went in for a bullflag scalp, now im watching PA on the larger timeframes and im pretty certain that demand has rejected this, since the entry is so well placed i can let this run easily, its at about +62 pips though it is in 5m and 15m supply right now.

Its a matter of conviction on whether or not i believe this has the energy to go for another 120 pips. Then again it depends on how exposed other trades are if they are exposed at all, how much profits ive done for the day etc. If i see a clear bearish breakout or bullish breakout structure or a reversal structure thats held im more likely to put my stops at BE+2 or so and just go away from the computer. Accept the fact that i may have lost out on an amazing amount of pips, but its still not quite the fucking fury im going to have if it breaks out even harder north.

If the larger 1hr trend seems to be showing more upsignals, then even if it turns at a 15m supply zone its only going to be a small jump downwards before it resumes right? Still relies on you reading the charts correctly and as we know.. everything can always change immediately without prior warning. The market is never wrong only your readings of it are.


EDIT:

Small update on the trade:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: updatecrude.png Size: 20 KB


EDIT:

also what dishwasher said is something that red and many others do. They take out 2/3's and leave the remaining position run, so they always end up 1/3 in profit no matter what happens. Personally i only do that on currencies since currencies are FUCKIGN whores. But when im in a trend change or a big potential move i rarely take it out, ill leave it run and hit BE if necessary. Bad trading habit of mine though.
  • #18,968
  • Jun 7, 2011 1:15pm Jun 7, 2011 1:15pm
Quoting biDc
I'm interested in seeing how you handle your exits. Care to elaborate and teach us?
You could always scale out and leave a runner. That is what I do. Say you break your initial position into 3 or 4 lots. Scale out a bit at each level.

Say you sell 50% or 2/3 at your first target zone 1 leave stops in place or at break even for the remaining position, even if price reverses and stops are hit you still banked some coin.

If price makes it to target zone 2, scale out a bit more and let a runner run.
  • #18,969
  • Jun 7, 2011 1:43pm Jun 7, 2011 1:43pm
These are the exact zones im looking at, were in one now, but thats PA dependant, top zone is where id want to exit, might exit half now though.

Last trade of the day for me, enjoy, also watch out for eu breaking for 1.475x

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: zones.png Size: 47 KB


EDIT: Closed +131
  • #18,970
  • Jun 7, 2011 3:15pm Jun 7, 2011 3:15pm
very good explanation for the newbies




Quoting Orbital
These are the exact zones im looking at, were in one now, but thats PA dependant, top zone is where id want to exit, might exit half now though.

Last trade of the day for me, enjoy, also watch out for eu breaking for 1.475x

Attachment

EDIT: Closed +131
Trading is all about probability, low risk/high reward ,buy low/sell high
  • #18,971
  • Jun 7, 2011 3:32pm Jun 7, 2011 3:32pm
We shd not take all supply and demand levels , we have to take only the important supply and demand levels .

How we know important supply and demand level ?
You have to see where price is more exceeded than the property of the value .

Orbital has cleanly showed you here











Quoting Orbital
These are the exact zones im looking at, were in one now, but thats PA dependant, top zone is where id want to exit, might exit half now though.

Last trade of the day for me, enjoy, also watch out for eu breaking for 1.475x

Attachment

EDIT: Closed +131
Trading is all about probability, low risk/high reward ,buy low/sell high
  • #18,972
  • Jun 7, 2011 6:37pm Jun 7, 2011 6:37pm
Quoting Orbital
These are the exact zones im looking at, were in one now, but thats PA dependant, top zone is where id want to exit, might exit half now though.

Last trade of the day for me, enjoy, also watch out for eu breaking for 1.475x

Attachment

EDIT: Closed +131
Thanks Orbital,

i look at that chart and they are the levels i would have chosen as well, The 2 you ignore, the 2nd was a strong retest of the first so there might not be too much supply left.
The top big zone was re-tested but we could say it failed as the retest barely made it in the zone and thus is still valid.

was my analysis similar to yours? Very keen to see if i'm on the same page as you guys. I'm hoping to start trading live with this soon.
  • #18,973
  • Jun 7, 2011 8:11pm Jun 7, 2011 8:11pm
I think Orbital broke the Forex market....I don't know what the crap is going on
Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
  • #18,974
  • Jun 7, 2011 8:14pm Jun 7, 2011 8:14pm
Quoting Rufus
I think Orbital broke the Forex market....I don't know what the crap is going on
Maybe FOMC member Dudley is flapping his jaws to much. I feel like I am watching ping pong...Maybe London will shape up to me more orderly..I am going to mess with my horse.
Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
  • #18,975
  • Jun 7, 2011 8:25pm Jun 7, 2011 8:25pm
There hasn't been a no-wick chart in a while
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #18,976
  • Jun 7, 2011 8:28pm Jun 7, 2011 8:28pm
Quoting Rufus
Maybe FOMC member Dudley is flapping his jaws to much. I feel like I am watching ping pong...Maybe London will shape up to me more orderly..I am going to mess with my horse.
Sorry to dissapoint you i didn't break shit Japanese Surplus data was bad as fuck, USDJPY started tanking, dragged eu and EJ with it on a downward spiral.

Very hardcore whats going on right now...
  • #18,977
  • Jun 7, 2011 8:57pm Jun 7, 2011 8:57pm
Quoting frankkn
There hasn't been a no-wick chart in a while
Lost 12 pips, I was shooting for 49
  • #18,978
  • Jun 7, 2011 9:04pm Jun 7, 2011 9:04pm
Reds army is breaking forex as well as comodity market




Quoting Rufus
I think Orbital broke the Forex market....I don't know what the crap is going on
Trading is all about probability, low risk/high reward ,buy low/sell high
  • #18,979
  • Jun 7, 2011 9:15pm Jun 7, 2011 9:15pm
EU
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: j7b.jpg Size: 47 KB
  • #18,980
  • Jun 7, 2011 9:29pm Jun 7, 2011 9:29pm
Quoting frankkn
EU
And -6 pips on that

I blame Orbital too
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